Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400), which has seen a rise of over 2% and is currently up 1.88%, indicating a potential three-day consecutive increase in trading volume [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF has experienced continuous net inflows for 12 days, supported by a recent action plan from Shanghai to enhance the linkage between futures and spot markets for non-ferrous metals, aiming to expand the market's international influence [2] - The global macroeconomic outlook is improving, with the IMF raising the 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3%, which is expected to support the prices of precious metals and boost sentiment for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] Group 2 - The tungsten market is experiencing a strong upward trend in both price and volume, with tungsten powder prices reaching historical highs due to tight supply and strong demand driven by the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index, which includes 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the market [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index include major companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth, indicating a concentration of market influence among leading firms [3]

宏观对话行业：地缘扰动下的周期品走势 20260120 摘要 美国战略重心转向美洲，强化"新门罗主义"，引发市场对地缘政治风 险的担忧，尤其是在委内瑞拉的军事行动和对格陵兰岛资源的争夺，可 能加剧国际紧张局势。 中国通过稀土、大豆等资源应对美国的技术封锁，提升了市场对其国家 治理能力的信心。同时，中国可深化"一带一路"倡议，以应对美国在 西半球的影响，并提升出口韧性。 中国出口目的地结构发生变化，对墨西哥出口贡献转负，但欧洲和非洲 国家成为新的增长点，新兴经济体的工业化需求支撑了中国出口韧性， 应淡化对美国市场需求的研究。 地缘政治扰动下，有色金属板块存在投资机会，包括类货币金属（如黄 金）和科技金属。黄金受益于去美元化和地缘政治紧张，科技金属受益 于 AI 和电能改造等新兴需求。 建议关注供给脆弱性叠加需求扩张周期的科技金属，如锡，其价格预计 将超过 50 万元以上，推荐阿尔法表现突出的企业，如新银锡、华锡有 色等。 Q&A 过去几年地缘政治局势的变化对全球市场产生了哪些影响？2026 年有哪些潜 在的风险点需要投资者关注？ 过去几年，尤其是 2025 年以来，地缘政治局势对全球市场产生了显著影响。 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant gains in related ETFs and stocks [1][5]. Market Performance - As of January 21, the non-ferrous metal sector is showing robust performance, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector include: - Shandong Gold up 4.54% - Ganfeng Lithium up 3.10% - Northern Rare Earth up 1.63% [2][5]. Commodity Prices - On January 21, COMEX gold and spot gold both surpassed the $4800 mark, each increasing by over 1%, reaching historical highs [3]. - LME copper is also on the rise, currently up by 0.6% [3]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions are heightening, leading to increased risk aversion in the market [3]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's political independence is under scrutiny, particularly with Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony [3]. Policy Developments - On January 20, multiple departments introduced an action plan to enhance the linkage between futures and spot markets for non-ferrous metals, aiming to improve the international competitiveness of the "Shanghai price" [3]. Investment Opportunities - Oriental Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on industrial metals, predicting a strategic opportunity in the copper sector due to supply constraints and improving smelting fees [4]. - The report suggests that the copper market is expected to benefit from a recovery in production from major mines, which could enhance profit margins for smelting companies [4]. Strategic Insights - The current economic climate is characterized by a "spiral down" phase, highlighting copper's strategic importance as a key metal amid global economic shifts [6]. - The demand for copper is expected to surge due to the AI revolution, with projections indicating an additional demand of approximately 79-170 thousand tons by 2030 from data center expansions alone [6]. ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is noted for its high copper content (34%) and gold content (12%), making it a leading choice in the sector [8]. - The ETF has shown superior performance with a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases [10].

Group 1 - Precious metals continue to show strong performance, with spot gold surpassing $4800 per ounce and spot silver reaching $95 per ounce, marking a 33% increase year-to-date [1] - Guangfa Securities indicates that the current divergence and rise in the commodity market are driven by a "debt-growth" dilemma, characterized by both "stagflation-type" asset revaluation and "transformation-type" industrial demand [1] - The focus for investment should be on the "safe-haven attributes of precious metals" and the "growth attributes of AI-related industrial metals" [1] Group 2 - As of January 21, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 2.00%, with component stocks such as silver nonferrous up by 9.88%, Zhongjin Gold up by 8.32%, and other related stocks also showing significant gains [1] - The Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880) closely tracks the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [1][3] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [2]

智通财经APP获悉，根据2026年1月20日披露数据，中国电信（00728）、绿色动力环保（01330）、天 津创业环保股份（01065）位居港股通持股比例前3位，分别为71.01%、69.50%、67.58%。此外，阿里 巴巴－W（09988）、腾讯控股（00700）、建设银行（00939）在最近有统计数据的5个交易日内，持股 额增幅最大，分别为+30.01亿元、+25.58亿元、+14.29亿元;中国移动（00941）、中国铝业（02600）、 紫金矿业（02899）在最近有统计数据的5个交易日内，持股额减幅最大，分别为-27.58亿元、-8.63亿 元、-8.06亿元。 2、港股通最近5个交易日增持榜（前10名） 具体数据如下（交易所数据根据T+2日结算）： 1、港股通最新持股比例排行（前20名） | 公司名称 | 持股数量 | 最新持股比例 | | --- | --- | --- | | 中国电信(00728) | 98.56亿股 | 71.01% | | 绿色动力环保(01330) | 2.81亿股 | 69.50% | | 天津创业环保股份(01065) | 2.30亿股 | 67.58% | | ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for December 2025 shows a stable overall economy with a GDP growth of 4.5% year-on-year, matching expectations, but down from 4.8% in the previous quarter [2] - The industrial output value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while retail sales growth was lower at 0.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment saw a decline of 3.8% year-on-year, indicating a weakening investment environment [2] - The economic growth pattern for 2025 indicates a stronger supply than demand, with external demand outpacing internal demand, which is expected to continue into 2026 [2][3] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see continued structural support from net exports, with potential stabilization in government-led investment projects [2] Production Structure - The industrial output growth in December 2025 showed a slight recovery, with high-tech manufacturing outpacing overall growth, indicating an optimization in production structure [3] - The production capacity utilization and sales rates reached their highest levels of the year, suggesting an improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth in December 2025 was lower than expected, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption [3] - The decline in disposable income growth indicates a constraint on consumer spending capacity, although new policies are expected to support consumption in early 2026 [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded decline, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where investment growth rates fell significantly [4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize due to government initiatives, while real estate investment continues to struggle with a year-on-year decline of 35.8% [5] Fixed Income Research - Credit bond issuance increased, with a downward trend in overall interest rates, indicating a favorable environment for credit bonds despite a reduction in net financing [6] - The credit spread for various bond types is at historical lows, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for credit bonds [6][8] Metal Industry Research - The steel industry is facing limited short-term demand pressure, with expectations of price stabilization due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment [9] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable despite weak supply dynamics, supported by positive long-term demand forecasts [10] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to improve due to demand from electric vehicles and high-pressure power grids, despite current oversupply issues [11] - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical tensions and mixed U.S. economic data, with long-term demand expected to rise [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the salary information of 87 central enterprise leaders for 2024, highlighting the differences in compensation between steel and non-ferrous metal mining enterprises, with a general decline in steel enterprise salaries and an increase in non-ferrous metal mining salaries [3][9]. Salary Overview - The pre-tax salary of central enterprise leaders consists of three parts: base salary, social insurance, enterprise annuity, supplementary medical insurance, and housing fund contributions, along with other monetary income [3]. - For 2024, the highest pre-tax salary among the eight steel and mining central enterprises is approximately 1.1 million yuan, including additional contributions [4]. - The highest base salary is for Duan Xiangdong, Chairman of China Aluminum Group, at 947,900 yuan, followed by Hu Wangming, Chairman of China Baowu Steel Group, at 888,600 yuan [5]. Year-on-Year Salary Changes - Compared to 2023, the salaries of steel enterprise leaders generally decreased, while those of non-ferrous metal mining leaders mostly increased [9]. - The lowest salary among the eight enterprises is for the Chairman of Xinxing Jihua Group at 491,000 yuan, which is about half of the highest salary in the non-ferrous sector [9]. Performance Impact on Salaries - The decline in steel enterprise salaries correlates with poor performance, as seen in Xinxing Jihua Group, which reported a loss of 4.228 billion yuan in 2024, a significant drop from a profit of 182 million yuan in 2023 [9]. - An analysis of Ansteel Group shows that its three listed companies experienced a decline in performance, with losses exceeding 100% compared to 2023 [10]. Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Performance - In contrast, the non-ferrous metal sector saw significant profit increases, with China Aluminum Group reporting a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 85.38% [12]. - The overall profit for the non-ferrous metal industry is projected to reach around 420 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of over 10% [12]. Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to improve in 2025, with profits projected to reach the best economic performance since 2022, driven by a recovery in production and pricing [10]. - The non-ferrous metal industry continues to thrive, with record profits reported in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is upgraded to "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on the electrolytic aluminum sector, driven by significant price increases and structural supply constraints [3][4] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow due to both traditional and emerging applications, with a notable increase in demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and data centers [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown strong performance with relative returns of 83.5% and absolute returns of 107.28% [2] Supply Side Analysis - Global electrolytic aluminum production capacity is constrained, with China's capacity at 45 million tons per year, accounting for 55% of global capacity. The overall operating rate remains above 98%, with minimal growth expected [4] - The global supply growth rate is projected at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.4% from 2025 to 2030, significantly lower than the expected demand growth rate of 2.3% [4] Demand Side Analysis - Traditional applications are stabilizing, while new applications are experiencing rapid growth. For instance, the demand from new energy vehicles is expected to add 330,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2026 [6] - The shift towards aluminum replacing copper in various applications is accelerating, with a projected replacement scale exceeding 700,000 tons by 2025 [6] Cost Analysis - The use of green electricity is improving production economics, with the cost of producing aluminum decreasing by approximately 15% compared to traditional coal power methods [7][8] - The current production cost of electrolytic aluminum in China is about 2,000 yuan lower than the global average, enhancing competitive advantages [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities within the aluminum sector, highlighting companies such as Nanshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, and Zhongfu Industrial as key players to watch [8]

Group 1 - Recent net redemptions in A-share broad-based ETFs have drawn market attention, with significant outflows recorded on January 15 and 16, totaling 687 billion and 863 billion respectively, marking the highest single-day outflows in history [1] - As of January 19, four out of six major broad-based ETFs saw their shares decline by over 10% in the last three trading days, with the largest, Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, dropping to 778.63 billion shares, a scale of approximately 369.2 billion, the lowest since August 2024 [1] - The ChiNext and STAR Market ETFs also experienced significant declines, with the E Fund STAR 50 ETF and E Fund ChiNext ETF seeing share reductions of 34.55% and 20.22% respectively [3] Group 2 - In contrast to the outflows from broad-based ETFs, certain commodity, cross-border, and narrow-based ETFs attracted significant inflows, with the Southern Nonferrous ETF being the only product to receive over 10 billion in net inflows, totaling 100.87 billion, driven by rising base metal prices [3] - Other ETFs such as Yongying Satellite ETF, Harvest Software ETF, and GF Media ETF also received net inflows exceeding 6 billion [3] - According to CITIC Securities, the impact of ETF redemptions on individual stocks was significant, with main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market stocks experiencing sell-offs of 946 billion, 334 billion, and 265 billion respectively during the peak outflow days [3] Group 3 - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market following rapid price increases and overheated sentiment, including raising the minimum margin requirement for margin trading from 80% to 100% [5][6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for comprehensive market monitoring and timely counter-cyclical adjustments to maintain market stability and prevent excessive volatility [6] - There are differing views on the long-term outlook for A-shares, with some analysts suggesting the potential for a slow bull market due to reforms, while others remain skeptical about escaping historical volatility patterns [7]

Group 1 - The main trend in the commodity market for 2025 will continue into 2026, with global demand-driven metals (such as gold, copper, and lithium) expected to outperform domestic demand-driven sectors (such as coal and steel) [1] - Supply disruptions and accelerated industry consolidation are anticipated to persist throughout the year [1] - The old-for-new subsidy policy is expected to continue until 2026, with incentives becoming more targeted and efficiency-focused, providing substantial support for overall commodity demand [1] Group 2 - The preferred order for the basic materials sector in 2026 is gold and copper, followed by aluminum, lithium, coal, and steel [1] - The materials sector is expected to continue outperforming the MSCI China Index in 2026, with recommendations for investors to buy Zijin Mining and to accumulate China Aluminum and China Hongqiao on dips [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum may experience a temporary pause due to the issuance of convertible bonds [1]