Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The agriculture sector has shown defensive characteristics amid fluctuations in US-China relations, leading to an increase in the industry index [4][13] - The industry index for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery rose by 1.62%, ranking third among 31 primary industries [12] - The report highlights significant supply pressure in the pig market, with prices remaining stagnant and a forecast for increased supply in the second half of 2025 [5][20] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agriculture sector rebounded, with the industry index increasing by 1.62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% [12] - The pig farming and animal vaccine sectors led the gains, while agricultural product processing experienced significant adjustments [15] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - As of June 15, the average price of pigs was 14.06 yuan/kg, down 1.82% from the previous week, indicating a stagnant price situation [5][17] - Supply pressure remains high, with an increase in production capacity since May 2024, and expectations for increased supply in the latter half of 2025 [5][20] - The report suggests that the pig price will likely fluctuate within a narrow range in 2025, with cost competition becoming a key focus for the year [21] Broilers - The price of broiler chicks has slightly decreased, with the price as of June 13 being 2.70 yuan/chick, down 0.2 yuan from the previous week [30] - Concerns regarding the introduction of foreign breeds have eased, and the report emphasizes the potential opportunities for domestic breeding companies due to disruptions in overseas imports [30] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted downward, with the price of white sugar at 6090 yuan/ton as of June 13, down 60 yuan from the previous week [36] - The price of soybeans has slightly decreased, with the imported price at 3707 yuan/ton, down 1.3% [36] - Corn prices have shown slight fluctuations, with an average price of 2356 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous week [36]

| 证券代码：603477 | 证券简称：巨星农牧 | 公告编号：2025-057 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113648 | 债券简称：巨星转债 | | 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份提前购回解除质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"、"本公司"）控股股 东四川巨星企业集团有限公司（以下简称"巨星集团"）持有公司股份数量为 150,967,538 股，占公司总股本比例为 29.60%；巨星集团及其一致行动人合计持 有公司股份数量为 151,037,538 股，占公司总股本比例为 29.61%。截至本公告 披露日，巨星集团累计质押股份数量为 97,330,000 股，占其持股数量的 64.47%； 巨星集团及其一致行动人累计质押股份数量为 97,330,000 股，占其持股数量的 64.44%。 2025 年 6 月 16 日，公司收到巨星集团关于将其持有的本公司部分股份提前 购回解除质押的通知，现将 ...

沪指6月16日上涨0.35%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有18个，涨幅居前的行业为传媒、通信，涨幅 分别为2.70%、2.11%。跌幅居前的行业为农林牧渔、美容护理，跌幅分别为0.76%、0.49%。农林牧渔 行业位居今日跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出2.93亿元，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，传媒行业主力资金 净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.70%，全天净流入资金31.81亿元，其次是计算机行业，日涨幅为 1.99%，净流入资金为26.70亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有21个，国防军工行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金21.33亿元， 其次是石油石化行业，净流出资金为18.56亿元，净流出资金较多的还有机械设备、有色金属、医药生 物等行业。 农林牧渔行业今日下跌0.76%，全天主力资金净流出4813.91万元，该行业所属的个股共103只，今日上 涨的有52只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有43只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有45 只，其中，净流入资金超千万元的有11只，净流入资金居首的是安德利，今日净流入资金4312.11万 元，紧随其后的是温氏股份、宏辉果蔬，净流 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report identifies resilient export products under tariff impacts, highlighting that products with technical barriers and differentiation show stronger pricing power in the long term, leading to a virtuous cycle of "volume and price increase + increased dependency" [2] - In the short term, a general decline in exports is observed, with more resilience reflected through re-export trade, and high-dependency products showing weak overseas substitution effects [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to be minimally affected by the recent Middle East tensions, as historical data shows limited impact during such events [3] - The report notes that the share of the Middle East in China's import and export trade is low, indicating a weak direct impact on the domestic economy [3] Group 3: Financial Sector Analysis - The report discusses the weak demand affecting credit expansion, with May's financial data showing a year-on-year decrease in credit growth, although government bond issuance supports social financing growth at a stable rate of 8.7% [8] - M1 growth rebounded due to a low base, while M2 growth remains stable [8] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Strong AI demand and rising storage prices are expected to boost the semiconductor sector, particularly benefiting companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor due to domestic substitution trends [9] - The report recommends focusing on companies with robust performance in non-volatile storage and FPGA sectors [9] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The report indicates that the transaction area of new homes in 30 core cities remained stable year-on-year, with average prices increasing by 5.6% [10] - Key cities like Beijing and Shanghai show significant price increases, suggesting a stabilization in high-tier cities [10] Group 6: Agricultural Sector - The report highlights a potential recovery in pig prices as inventory levels decrease, with policies driving the industry towards destocking [12] - Long-term profitability is anticipated post-destocking, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Zhengbang Technology [12] Group 7: Energy Sector - The report notes that seasonal demand for electricity is expected to support stable coal prices, with recommendations for companies with high long-term contracts like China Shenhua [13] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are also discussed, with rising oil prices observed [14] Group 8: Non-Banking Financial Services - The report emphasizes the growth potential of Yika, a leading commercial empowerment technology platform, predicting net profits of 101 million, 112 million, and 123 million yuan for 2025-2027 [15] - The company is expected to benefit from a competitive landscape in the payment sector [15] Group 9: Telecommunications Sector - The report projects significant growth for Shengyi Technology, driven by AI-related demand, with net profit forecasts of 2.628 billion and 3.280 billion yuan for 2025-2026 [16] - The long-term growth potential of the company is highlighted [16] Group 10: Retail Sector - The report indicates a significant improvement in operating profit margins for Chow Tai Fook, with a forecasted recovery in net profit for FY2026 and FY2027 [17] - The company's transformation strategy is showing positive results, with expectations of increased consumer demand for gold jewelry [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent decline in pig prices has led to increased resistance from the breeding sector, with large producers gradually easing their selling pace. However, high temperatures have weakened terminal demand, resulting in low slaughter volumes and insufficient consumer support [1][22]. - The corn and soybean meal prices have risen, while wheat prices have decreased. The corn market is buoyed by a decrease in circulation due to the wheat harvest, and soybean supply remains ample due to favorable weather conditions in major production areas [2][44]. - The natural rubber price has increased, supported by tightening supply due to weather impacts on production and recovering demand from tire manufacturers [62]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the market, with the sector index rising by 1.62% compared to a 0.25% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The sub-sectors showed varied performance, with livestock farming and animal health sectors increasing by 3.92% and 1.13%, respectively, while planting and feed sectors experienced declines [13][18]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs was reported at 14.02 yuan/kg, down 0.21% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets fell by 4.69% to 32.89 yuan/kg [21][22]. - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased to 128.82 kg, and the national frozen meat inventory rate increased to 13.89% [22]. - White feather broiler prices dropped to 7.27 yuan/kg, and chick prices fell to 2.74 yuan each, reflecting a weak market for poultry [31][21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For the pig farming sector, the report suggests that the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, and with ongoing policy support for inventory reduction, a long-term profit uptrend is expected post-inventory clearance. Recommended stocks include Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [3][71]. - The report also highlights opportunities in the planting chain due to the upward trend in grain prices, recommending stocks like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][71]. - In the pet food sector, the report notes ongoing growth and price increase logic, recommending companies such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [3][71].

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 15 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 行业库存持续释放，生猪均重降幅扩大 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：行业库存持续释放，出栏均重降幅扩大。（1）本周猪价跌 后小幅反弹。猪价跌破 14 元/公斤后，养殖主体惜售情绪有所增强，叠加 低价二育进场比例增加，带动周后期猪价小幅反弹，6 月 13 日猪价 14.02 元/公斤，周环比-0.05 元/公斤。（2）本周屠企宰量下滑。端午节过后市场 消费明显下滑，屠企订单量处于低位，本周宰量呈下滑趋势。6 月 7-13 日 涌益样本屠企日均宰杀量为 14.31 万头，周环比-1.83%。（3）本周生猪出 栏均重继续下降。随气温升高，大猪需求量减少，养殖端压栏情绪减弱，6 月多个集团场均有不同程度降重策略，行业出栏均重维持下滑趋势。6 月 12 日当周生猪出栏均重 128.82kg，周环比-0.35kg，已连续四周下降，本周 降幅较前期扩大。展望后市，涌益/钢联/卓创监测 6 月样本企业日均出栏预 计环比+4.39%/+2.84%/+3.88%，供应压力预计增大。叠加气温升高抑制养 殖端压栏增重意愿，行业去库存开启，猪 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that after a rapid increase in pig slaughtering, pig prices have stabilized, with expectations of limited downward pressure in the short term. The overall supply of pigs is entering a contraction phase, leading to an upward trend in pig prices in Q3 2025 [4][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a decline for four consecutive months, which may exert pressure on the CPI target for 2025. The report anticipates that policy measures will be implemented to support pig prices and mitigate their negative impact on CPI [5][21] - The investment logic for the pig industry is improving, with recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others. The pet food sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, driven by domestic brands [6][33] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of pigs in China as of June 13, 2025, is 14.02 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 4.73 yuan/kg. The report notes that the price has stabilized after a period of accelerated slaughtering [4][13] - The report discusses the impact of weather conditions, such as the "Bailu" typhoon and the rainy season in southern China, which have affected pig transportation and provided short-term support for prices [4][13] Market Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the broader market by 1.87 percentage points during the week of June 9-13, 2025, with the agricultural index rising by 1.62% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% [6][36] - The pet food sector led the gains, with individual stocks such as Yuanfei Pet (+12.41%), Xiaoming Co. (+7.33%), and Shennong Group (+6.64%) showing significant increases [6][36] Price Tracking - As of June 13, 2025, the average price of pigs is 14.02 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.28% from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 32.89 yuan/kg, down 4.69% week-on-week [49][60] - The report also notes that corn and soybean meal prices have increased, with corn futures settling at 2370.00 yuan/ton, up 1.46% week-on-week, and soybean meal futures at 3048.00 yuan/ton, up 1.91% [60][64]

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 近期，生猪养殖板块迎来大涨。截至6月11日，猪肉概念板块 （BK0882） 在近9个交易日内收涨了 6.07%。其中，牧原股份、巨星农牧和神农集团的涨幅分别达到了15.57%、18.64%和27.64%，这背 后的推手无疑是频繁出台的政策利好。 回顾5月29日，发改委召开会议，明确提出要稳产能、稳猪价，并出台了五大措施： （1）不再增加母猪数量； （5）要求相关猪企每月上报数据。 （2）育肥猪的体重要降到120公斤； （3）不鼓励卖二育猪； （4）希望毛猪价格能够稳定； 紧接着，6月9日，华储网发布关于2025年6月11日中央储备冻猪肉轮换收储竞价交易有关事项的通 知，计划收储数量为1万吨。 回顾《 普通人的暖冬，养猪人的"寒冬" 》一文的观点，2025年猪价很悲观，大家要谨慎参与。至于 机会何时出现？妙投认为或许要等一些外部催化，如政策干预或疫病爆发，甚至一个寒冬，都可能会 酝酿出不错的机会。 那么，在这个时刻，政策" ...

作者 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 近期，生猪养殖板块迎来大涨。截至6月11日，猪肉概念板块（BK0882）在近9个交易日内收涨了6.07%。其中，牧原股份、巨星农牧和神农集团的涨幅分别 达到了15.57%、18.64%和27.64%，这背后的推手无疑是频繁出台的政策利好。 回顾5月29日，发改委召开会议，明确提出要稳产能、稳猪价，并出台了五大措施： 出品 | 妙投APP 紧接着，6月9日，华储网发布关于2025年6月11日中央储备冻猪肉轮换收储竞价交易有关事项的通知，计划收储数量为1万吨。 回顾《普通人的暖冬，养猪人的"寒冬"》一文的观点，2025年猪价很悲观，大家要谨慎参与。至于机会何时出现？妙投认为或许要等一些外部催化，如政策 干预或疫病爆发，甚至一个寒冬，都可能会酝酿出不错的机会。 那么，在这个时刻，政策"出手"是否会推动这场漫长的猪周期迎来反转？ 为何此时"出手"？ 政策之所以要在此刻"出手"，主要是因为生猪产能一直处于供给过剩、猪价持续下行的状态，CPI被严重拖累。 截至6月9日，国内生猪（外三元）价格为13.96元/公斤，今年内下降了1.78元/公斤，距去年的高点下跌了逾7元/公斤。 猪价的持续 ...

当前时点为何看好生猪板块？20250612 摘要 2025 年生猪存栏量与 2023 年相近或更少，预计全年行业均价有望达 到 15 元/公斤，头部企业将受益于此轮猪价上涨，盈利空间巨大。 当前生猪产能调控政策趋严，针对头部企业减母猪、调控育肥猪和降体 重，旨在稳定猪价至 15-16 元/公斤以上，并最终促进 CPI 平稳回升， 同时，养殖成本同比下降，政策调控有助于提升上市公司养殖利润。 2025 年猪价周期与 2023 年高度相似，饲料和兽药疫苗数据波动趋势 也与 2023 年相似，预计全年均价可达 15 元/公斤左右，当前 14 元/公 斤的价格接近底部，未来几个月整体趋势预计上涨。 头部企业养殖成本已降至 12 元/公斤左右，若未来几个月平均价格达到 15-16 元/公斤，将获得丰厚利润，当前政策环境和成本下降对上市公司 提升盈利能力构成利好。 预计 2025 年 7 月猪价开始上涨，6 月处于摸底震荡阶段，因降体重出 栏导致供给下降，需求较差。下半年均价乐观，未来一两个月内猪价可 能趋势性上涨，8-9 月份达到 15.5 元/公斤以上，甚至接近 16 元/公斤。 2025 年养殖企业生产效率和经营管 ...