行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 02 月 09 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不改 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万）指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has announced its three-year production plan for major mineral products from 2026 to 2028, aiming to enhance its resource reserves and production capacity, with gold and copper output expected to rank among the top three globally by 2028 [1][3] Group 1: Production Plans and Goals - The company plans to produce 105 tons of gold, 120,000 tons of copper, 520 tons of silver, 400,000 tons of zinc/lead, 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, and 15,000 tons of molybdenum by 2026 [1] - By 2028, Zijin Mining aims to further improve its rankings in resource reserves, production output, sales revenue, asset scale, and profit [1] Group 2: Performance and Capacity Expansion - Zijin Mining is focused on maximizing the production capacity of its key mineral products, particularly in the lithium sector, and is set to launch several major construction projects [3] - The company is accelerating production at several gold mines, including those in Papua New Guinea, Australia, Colombia, Guyana, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, while also enhancing domestic production capabilities [3] - In the copper sector, Zijin Mining is expediting the production capacity of its three major copper mines, including the Jilong Copper Mine and the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Forecast - Zijin Mining expects a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [5] - The company anticipates an increase in the production of major mineral products in 2025, including approximately 90 tons of gold and 1.09 million tons of copper [5] Group 4: Recent Acquisitions and Developments - Zijin Mining's subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, has signed an agreement to acquire Allied Gold Corporation for approximately 5.5 billion Canadian dollars (about 28 billion yuan), which includes several gold mining assets [6] - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine has been completed, increasing its production capacity to 350,000 tons per day, with significant increases in annual copper and molybdenum production expected [7]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.34%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.76% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF from Yinhua (159318) gained 1.64%, and the Technology ETF from Penghua (159751) increased by 1.79% [1] Sector Performance - The insurance and communication equipment sectors showed the highest gains, while the energy equipment and services sector experienced the largest declines [1] Individual Stock Movements - Lanke Technology surged over 63%, followed by Zhipu with a 36.22% increase, and MINIMAX-WP rising by 11.71% [1] - Notable gainers also included: - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) up 11.43% - China Duty Free (601888) up 8.31% - Innovent Biologics up 7.42% - SANY Heavy Industry (600031) up 7.12% [1] - Other significant increases were seen in: - Laopu Gold up 6.35% - Fast Retailing up 6.26% - Pop Mart up 5.76% - Zijin Mining (601899) up 5.58% - Weichai Power (000338) up 5.23% - Minmetals Resources up 5.0% - Ping An Insurance up 4.88% - Swire Properties up 4.71% - Zhaojin Mining up 4.21% - China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951) up 4.17% - SMIC up 4.07% [1] - On the downside, Xixiangfeng Group fell by 5.88%, and Weilu Group dropped by 15.47% [1] - Noteworthy gainers included Changfei Optical Fiber (601869) with a 15.31% increase and Dongfang Electric (600875) up 14.34% [1]

信达生物涨7.421%，泡泡玛特涨5.757%，紫金矿业涨5.575%，中国平安涨4.885%，中芯国际涨 4.068%，中国人寿涨3.976%，京东健康涨3.888%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a "short squeeze" rally, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.76% to close at 27,027.16 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.34% to 5,417.6 points, and the China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.52% to 9,168.33 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed strength, with Alibaba up 1.87%, Tencent Holdings up 2.28%, and JD Group up 0.94%, while Meituan and Kuaishou saw declines of 0.38% and 2.74% respectively [1] Sector Insights AI and Data Infrastructure - Real-time data infrastructure provider Zhixun (03317) surged nearly 17%, driven by its AI-based data operating system reshaping decision-making processes in finance, energy, and high-end manufacturing [2] - AI application stocks saw significant gains, with Zhizhu (02513) soaring over 36% and MINIMAX-WP rising over 11% [1][2] Resources and Energy - CGN Mining (01164) rose over 8% due to supply-demand gap dynamics, with global uranium supply shortages expected to rely on production recovery projects [2] - Rare earth permanent magnet stocks strengthened, with Jintai Permanent Magnet (06680) increasing by 4.72% as praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices surged to 805,000 yuan per ton [2] Robotics and Advanced Manufacturing - Leading global robotics company Woan Robotics (06600) jumped nearly 12%, expected to dominate the household robotics market in 2024 [2] Consumer and Entertainment - Pop Mart (09992) rose by 5%, driven by IP and new product launches, while Xindong Company (02400) saw a 4.23% increase due to strong performance from its "My Little Pony" IP [3] Blue Chips and General Knowledge - HSBC Holdings (00005) reached a new historical high, increasing by 3.34%, with a projected synergy effect of $800-900 million post-privatization of Hang Seng Bank [3] - Optical communication stocks collectively surged, supported by significant capital expenditure plans from tech giants like Meta and Microsoft [3] Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest a shift in Hong Kong's investment logic from traditional valuation recovery to a focus on "new productive forces" and high-quality development [4] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio (12x) and the Hang Seng Tech Index's valuation at the 19th percentile historically make them attractive to southbound capital [4] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include a "growth + value" strategy focusing on the AI industry chain, non-ferrous metals, and insurance sectors [5] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes caution in identifying ultimate winners in the AI wave, suggesting that companies like Alibaba and Baidu are more likely to be "secondary winners" [5]

花旗发表研报指，紫金矿业公布其2026年至2028三年生产计划及至2035年的目标概要。2026年的生产指 引为矿产铜120万吨、金105吨、锂12万吨、锌40万吨、银52吨及钼1.5万吨，按年增长分别为10%、 17%、380%、持平、19%及36%。2028年的生产目标为矿产铜1.5至1.6百万吨、金130吨至140吨、锂27 至32万吨、锌40至45万吨、银600至700吨及钼2.5至3.5万吨，与此前指引相比，分别为持平、增加30 吨、增加2万吨、减少15万吨、持平及持平。意味着2025年至2028年间，矿产金和铜的年复合增长率分 别为13%至16%及11%至14%，而锂的年复合增长率预计为121%至134%。该行相信，通过现有矿山的扩 张计划及并购，紫金的产量在未来几年将持续稳健增长，维持首选推荐，目标价为39港元，评级"买 入"。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the top and bottom AH premium rates for various stocks, indicating significant discrepancies between H-shares and A-shares [1] Group 1: Top AH Premium Rates - Northeast Electric (00042) has the highest AH premium rate at 831.03%, with H-share priced at 0.290 HKD and A-share at 2.25 CNY [1] - Zhejiang Shibao (01057) follows with a premium rate of 347.33%, H-share at 5.810 HKD and A-share at 21.7 CNY [1] - Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033) ranks third with a premium rate of 304.44%, H-share at 0.900 HKD and A-share at 3.04 CNY [1] Group 2: Bottom AH Premium Rates - Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750) has the lowest AH premium rate at -13.97%, with H-share priced at 513.500 HKD and A-share at 368.82 CNY [1] - China Merchants Bank (03968) has a premium rate of -3.80%, H-share at 49.220 HKD and A-share at 39.53 CNY [1] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) shows a minimal premium rate of -0.35%, with H-share at 69.050 HKD and A-share at 57.45 CNY [1] Group 3: Top Deviation Values - Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033) leads in deviation value at 26.29%, indicating a significant difference from its average premium rate [1] - Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric (00187) has a deviation value of 22.66% [1] - Longpan Technology (02465) ranks third with a deviation value of 19.24% [1] Group 4: Bottom Deviation Values - Junda Co., Ltd. (02865) has the lowest deviation value at -66.46%, indicating a substantial drop from its average premium rate [1] - Zhejiang Shibao (01057) follows with a deviation value of -42.67% [1] - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) shows a deviation value of -33.26% [1]

花旗发表研报指，紫金矿业公布其2026年至2028三年生产计划及至2035年的目标概要。2026年的生产指 引为矿产铜120万吨、金105吨、锂12万吨、锌40万吨、银52吨及钼1.5万吨，按年增长分别为10%、 17%、380%、持平、19%及36%。2028年的生产目标为矿产铜1.5至1.6百万吨、金130吨至140吨、锂27 至32万吨、锌40至45万吨、银600至700吨及钼2.5至3.5万吨，与此前指引相比，分别为持平、增加30 吨、增加2万吨、减少15万吨、持平及持平。意味着2025年至2028年间，矿产金和铜的年复合增长率分 别为13%至16%及11%至14%，而锂的年复合增长率预计为121%至134%。该行相信，通过现有矿山的扩 张计划及并购，紫金的产量在未来几年将持续稳健增长，维持首选推荐，目标价为39港元，评级"买 入"。 ...

Group 1: International Gold Market - On Friday, international gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, opening at $4779.32 per ounce, reaching a high of $4971.39 and a low of $4654.35, ultimately closing at $4966.61 per ounce [1][10] - COMEX gold futures reported at $4988.60 per ounce [10] - The London spot gold price increased by 3.98% from the previous day's close, with a year-to-date increase of 15.01% [11] Group 2: Currency and Economic Data - The onshore RMB closed at 6.9401 against the USD, appreciating by 7 basis points from the previous trading day, while the USD index fell by 0.36% to 97.6102 [1][20] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 57.3 this month, up from a final value of 56.4 in January [1][24] - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation and a 300 billion yuan 14-day reverse repo operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 146 billion yuan for the day [1][15] Group 3: Precious Metals and Commodity Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's AU99.99 contract closed at 1093.85 yuan per gram, while the main futures contract closed at 1090.12 yuan per gram [12] - The SPDR Gold ETF held 1,076.23 tons of gold, remaining unchanged from the previous week [14][15] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported various commodity prices, with LME aluminum at $3110.00 and LME zinc at $3383.00, reflecting increases of 2.74% and 2.45% respectively [11] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising by 2.47% to 50115.67 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.97% to 6932.30 points, and the Nasdaq up by 2.18% to 23031.21 points [21][22] - In contrast, the A-share market saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.25% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.33% [21][22]

紫金矿业大幅上调未来黄金产量目标。在金价持续高位运行背景下，计划三年内将矿产金产量提升至130至140吨，较此前规划目标上调近三成。这一调整凸 显公司对市场前景的信心，以及加速释放黄金产能的战略意图。 据公司2月9日发布的公告，紫金矿业董事会审议通过三年（2026-2028年）主要矿产品产量规划，将2028年矿产金目标从此前2024年设定的100至110吨上调 至130至140吨。同时，矿产铜、矿产银产量目标保持不变，分别为150至160万吨和600至700吨。 产量目标上调建立在公司业绩快速增长的基础上。根据初步核算数据，紫金矿业2025年营业收入约3450亿元，较2022年增长约28%；利润总额约800亿元， 增长约167%；归母净利润约510至520亿元，增长约155%至160%。 消息公布后，紫金矿业股价当日上涨4.1%至40.72港元。 公司在公告中表示，将"加大战略性矿产资源获取力度，以金、铜为重点发展矿种"，境内深耕西部重点区域，境外重点关注与中国陆路接壤国家以及其他市 场、法治环境良好的友好国家。 金、锂、钼产能目标上调 紫金矿业此次规划调整幅度显著。根据公告，2026年矿产金产量目标为105 ...