01 主要观点策略 铜周报：铜矿长单TC落地，铜价高位整理 2025-12-22 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜高位震荡。截至上周五收至83180元/吨，周跌幅1.05%。宏观层面，美国11月CPI数据低于预期，虽短暂提振降息预期， 但对铜价的直接刺激有限，市场已基本消化年内货币政策路径。矿端持续紧缺，中国头部冶炼企业与Antofagasta敲定2026年铜精矿 长单加工费Benchmark为0美元/吨与0美分/磅。传统淡季下游需求放缓，铜库存累库叠加宏观缺乏指引下，预计铜价高位震荡运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 25-12-19 25-12-15 25-12-09 25-12-03 25-11-27 25-11-21 25-11-17 25-11-11 25-11-05 25-10-30 25-10-24 25-10-20 25-10-14 25-09-30 25-09-24 25-09-18 25-09-12 25-09-08 ...

A Chinese smelter and Antofagasta agreed to set fees for processing copper concentrate at a record low for 2026, after tough negotiations that reflected a market facing abundant refining capacity but tight global ore supplies https://t.co/UA76YZRC1L ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Copper - **Current Price**: Copper prices reached approximately US$11,900 per ton (US$5.40 per pound), marking a new all-time high [2][24] Core Insights and Arguments - **Substitution Concerns**: Despite rising copper prices, the potential for substitution with alternative materials is not expected to significantly disrupt market expectations for widening deficits and higher prices. Substitution risks are acknowledged but deemed insufficient to close the long-term market deficit projected for 2030 [2][24] - **Long-term Demand Forecast**: The analysis indicates that copper demand loss to substitution has averaged around 2% per annum over the last 20 years, with recent acceleration to over 400,000 tons per annum, which is still considered manageable within the context of overall demand growth [6][24] - **Market Deficit Projection**: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research forecasts a copper market deficit of approximately 2 million tons by 2030, despite potential increases in substitution and recycling efforts [24][25] Investment Recommendations - **Top Picks**: - **EMEA**: Antofagasta (Overweight rating), expected to achieve over 30% copper volume growth and return on capital employed (ROCE) exceeding 30% by 2028/29 [7][50] - **Americas**: Freeport-McMoRan and Grupo Mexico are also rated Overweight [7][50] - **Asia-Pacific**: Zijin and Capstone are rated Overweight [7][50] Additional Insights - **Technological Developments**: New leaching technologies could add approximately 590,000 tons per annum to global copper supply by 2030, but face uncertainties regarding timelines and capital intensity [42][46] - **Recycling Growth**: Scrap supply is expected to grow at 5-6% per annum to 2030, but the response to price-driven scrap supply may be muted due to prior market disruptions [31][42] - **Electric Vehicle (EV) Demand**: Total copper demand from electric vehicles is projected to more than double from approximately 1.4 million tons in 2023 to 3 million tons by 2030, driven by increasing battery sizes and vehicle energy density [31][42] Risks and Challenges - **Substitution Limitations**: Even if substitution accelerates to 6% of copper demand, it would only result in an additional demand destruction of approximately 1.3 million tons per annum by 2030, insufficient to offset the projected market deficit [24][25] - **Regulatory and Market Uncertainties**: Tax policy uncertainties in China regarding scrap supply and the overall economic environment could pose risks to the copper market [31][42] Conclusion - The overall sentiment remains bullish on copper investments, with a strong emphasis on the long-term demand outlook despite short-term substitution risks. The focus on technological advancements and recycling efforts is crucial for addressing future supply challenges [2][24][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but with increased volatility. After the digestion of macro - negative sentiments and supported by fundamentals, most non - ferrous metals have shown a recovery. However, there are still differences in strength among different varieties. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the resonance between fundamentals and macro - drivers [11][12]. - The market is currently affected by multiple factors such as the US interest - rate cut expectations, potential Japanese interest - rate hikes, fluctuations in technology stocks, and changes in economic data in China and the US. The performance of each non - ferrous metal variety is affected by both macro - environment and its own fundamentals [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. After the digestion of negative factors and with the support of fundamentals, the sector is recovering. There are differences in performance among different varieties. Key factors include the US interest - rate cut expectations, potential Japanese interest - rate hikes, and fluctuations in technology stocks [11]. - **Economic Data**: In China, from January to November, real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 7.8% year - on - year. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods dropped to 1.3%. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In the US, the unemployment rate in November rose to a four - year high, and the retail sales in October were generally flat [11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: | Variety | Operation Logic | Support Area | Pressure Area | Market Judgment | Strategy | Recommendation Intensity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | Affected by factors such as US employment data and market sentiment, with improved downstream acceptance of high prices and a structural contradiction in global copper inventory, the copper price is expected to rise. | 90000 - 91000 | 94500 - 95000 | Oscillating upward | Buy on dips | +1 | | Zinc | With a good short - term fundamental situation and affected by factors such as supply reduction and demand changes, the market is oscillating. | 22800 - 23000 | 23500 - 23800 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait - and - see | +0.5 | | Aluminum Industry Chain | The aluminum market is in an oscillating adjustment phase, with an oversupply situation in alumina and a complex situation in the aluminum downstream. | 21000 - 21300; 2000 - 2200; 20000 - 20400 | 23000 - 24000; 2800 - 3000; 21500 - 21800 | Aluminum oscillating adjustment; Alumina oscillating at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy oscillating adjustment | Wait - and - see or buy on dips; Sell on rallies; Wait - and - see or buy on dips | +0.5/-0.5/+0.5 | | Tin | Affected by supply and demand factors such as smelter production and consumption, the market is oscillating. | 290000 - 300000 | 335000 - 340000 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait - and - see for the time being | - 0.5 | | Lead | Affected by factors such as smelter production and demand changes in lead - acid battery enterprises, the price is oscillating weakly. | 16500 - 16600 | 17200 - 17300 | Oscillating weakly | Double - selling strategy | - 0.5 | | Nickel | Affected by factors such as potential RKAB quota reduction in Indonesia and supply - demand changes, the price is rebounding. | 110000 - 112000 | 120000 - 122000 | Rebound | Short - term rebound | +1 | | Stainless Steel | In a period of weak supply and demand, with reduced production in December and weak demand. | 12200 - 12300 | 12700 - 12800 | Repeated at low levels | Wait - and - see for the time being | +0.5 | [13][14][15][16] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price change rates of various non - ferrous metals are presented in a table. For example, copper closed at 92600 with a - 0.24% change, and zinc closed at 23030 with a 0.26% change [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector includes information on the price change rate, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base value, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as Shanghai silver, Shanghai tin, and industrial silicon [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price change rates of various non - ferrous metals are presented in a table. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 92430 yuan/ton with a 0.10% change, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 23140 yuan/ton with a 0.52% change [20][21][22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant data charts of various non - ferrous metals industry chains are presented, including copper inventory changes, zinc inventory changes, and aluminum inventory and price trends [25][28][31]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Relevant data charts for arbitrage analysis of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change [57][58]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Relevant data charts for option analysis of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the historical volatility of copper options and the weighted implied volatility of zinc options [75][77].

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Summary of Mining Equities Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector Performance**: In 2025, mining equities outperformed equity benchmarks, primarily driven by gold and copper, while ferrous metals and energy remained flat or declined [1][15] - **2026 Outlook**: Expectations for copper, aluminium, and lithium to outperform due to supply constraints and energy transition, with a cautious view on traditional end markets in developed economies [2][15] Key Commodities Insights Copper - **Market Dynamics**: The medium-term outlook for copper remains bullish, with expectations of market tightness in 2026 due to limited growth in global mine output and a deficit in refined output [3][4] - **Investment Opportunities**: Freeport is highlighted as a top pick due to its discounted valuation and expected production recovery at the Grasberg mine [4][23] Aluminium - **Demand vs Supply**: The outlook for aluminium is mixed; while demand holds up, supply constraints are expected, particularly from China and developed markets [5][24] - **Investment Recommendation**: A buy recommendation for Norsk Hydro is reiterated, with expectations of stable operations and potential cash returns [8][24] Gold - **Market Sentiment**: Gold remains a consensus macro trade, with equities delivering strong returns in 2025. However, valuations are less compelling than at the start of the year [9][22] - **Top Picks**: Barrick and Newmont are identified as top picks, with potential for further catalysts in 2026 [10][22] Iron Ore - **Price Forecast**: The medium-term outlook for iron ore is bearish, with prices expected to stabilize around $100/t in the short term and decline to $90/t by 2027 due to increased supply from Simandou [11][20] Coal - **Market Conditions**: Met coal prices have risen above $200/t due to demand and supply disruptions, while thermal coal remains stable at $110/t [12][20] Diversified Miners - **Performance Comparison**: Vale outperformed in the bulks sector, while RIO and BHP performed in line with benchmarks. A preference for RIO over Vale and BHP is noted due to better growth prospects [13][25] Earnings and Price Target Changes - **Adjustments**: Earnings estimates and price targets have been adjusted based on commodity price forecasts, with notable upgrades for copper miners like FCX and KGHM [28][29] Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The report emphasizes a selective investment approach in mining equities, focusing on commodities with strong fundamentals and potential for price gains, particularly copper, aluminium, and gold [2][15][22]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the critical minerals industry, focusing on lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements, which are essential for energy transition and modern economies [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Major economies, including the US, EU, Japan, and China, have developed lists of critical minerals, with significant overlap, particularly for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths [1][2]. - Supply of critical minerals is highly concentrated, with the top three producing countries accounting for over 70% of lithium and nickel production, and over 80% of cobalt and rare earth production [1][3]. - The International Energy Agency predicts a potential copper supply gap of 20%-40% of demand over the next decade, and a lithium supply gap of 30%-60% by 2035, driven by increasing energy storage needs [1][5]. - The number of global policies related to critical minerals has nearly tripled in the past five years, primarily in Australia, the US, and the EU, addressing supply reliability, concentration, and recycling [1][6]. Challenges in Supply Chain - Rare earth elements, while not rare in terms of availability, face complex and time-consuming extraction and processing challenges. The US has reduced its dependence on rare earths from 100% in 2020 to about 80% by 2024, but still relies heavily on imports for strategic applications [4]. - The concentration of supply chains makes diversification difficult, as mining and refining require significant time and expertise [3][4]. Policy Developments - The EU's critical raw materials legislation aims for 10% of annual consumption to come from local production by 2030, with additional targets for processing and recycling [6]. - Asian countries are enhancing their strategic positions in critical minerals, with China emphasizing its rare earth industry, Japan forming strategic alliances, and India announcing funding for global exploration [7][8]. Investment Opportunities - A selection of 66 stocks related to critical minerals mining and refining has been identified, with notable companies including MP Materials (US), Grupo Mexico (Latin America), Antofagasta (Europe), and Chalco and Hongqiao (China) [2][9]. - Special recommendations include Bannerman Energy, an Australian uranium developer, and Capstone Copper, a leading copper mining company, representing significant investment opportunities in uranium and copper sectors [9].

Market Overview - European stocks ended on a mixed note, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 edging down 0.01% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 closing down by 0.45% [2] - Germany's DAX climbed 0.61%, while Switzerland's SMI increased by 0.31% [2] - Investors are digesting economic data from both Europe and the U.S. ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement [1] Country-Specific Performance United Kingdom - RightMove saw a gain of 3.3%, while JD Sports Fashion, Smith & Nephew, and 3i Group increased by 2.4% to 2.8% [3] - Notable losses included Smiths Group, Metlen Energy & Metals, and BP, which fell by 3.5%, 2.7%, and 2.6% respectively [3] Germany - BMW rallied nearly 4%, with Infineon and BASF climbing by 2.8% and 2.3% respectively [4] - Other companies like Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen also posted impressive gains, while RWE and Bayer closed weak [4] France - TP, Saint Gobain, and Hermes International saw increases between 2.3% and 3.2% [5] - Companies like Orange and TotalEnergies experienced losses of 1% to 2% [5] Economic Data - Germany's factory orders grew by 1.5% in October, driven by a 9.9% increase in domestic orders, despite a 4% decrease in foreign orders [6][7] - Euro area GDP grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, revised up from 0.2%, with annual growth confirmed at 1.4% [7][8] - France's trade deficit narrowed to €3.9 billion in October, with exports down 0.5% and imports down 4.6% [9]

Group 1 - International copper prices are rising, with Citibank predicting an average price of $13,000 per ton by Q2 2026, leading to a 1.2% increase to $11,581 per ton on December 5 [1] - The core driver for rising copper prices is a structural change in supply and demand dynamics, particularly due to U.S. market hoarding and potential import tariff policies, causing a supply shortage in other regions [2] - Analysts from Huatai Securities expect a shift from surplus to shortage in global copper supply and demand by 2026, with prices potentially exceeding $12,000 per ton due to strong demand and limited supply growth [3] Group 2 - Recent extreme weather, aging mine capacity, and geopolitical disturbances are expected to significantly impact global copper production, continuing into 2026 [3] - China's strategic reserve actions are anticipated to influence copper prices, with plans to increase reserves of key industrial metals amid energy transition demands and geopolitical tensions [4] - The rise in copper prices has positively affected global mining stocks, with companies like Antofagasta seeing significant stock price increases [4]

Core Viewpoint - A global "copper rush" is driving copper prices to unprecedented heights, with concerns over potential U.S. tariffs exacerbating fears of a global supply crisis [1] Group 1: Price Movements - On December 3, copper prices reached a historic high of $11,540 per ton, with LME copper futures rising by 2.72% [1] - The surge in copper prices has positively impacted global mining stocks, exemplified by a more than 5% increase in Antofagasta's stock price [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current copper market is experiencing a significant imbalance in supply and demand, with traders warning that copper is rapidly flowing to the U.S. to avoid potential tariff risks [2][3] - LME warehouse data indicates a net cancellation of 50,725 tons of copper, leading to the lowest registered warehouse quantity since July at 105,275 tons [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - The surge in demand for physical copper from Asian warehouses suggests traders are eager to extract copper to capitalize on price differences, with LME spot copper premiums reaching $86 per ton, the highest since mid-October [3] - The tariff threats proposed by former U.S. President Trump have significantly influenced the physical market, driving U.S. copper futures prices higher and increasing shipments to U.S. ports [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Major metal traders predict that these trade dynamics could lead to severe global supply tightness in Q1 of the following year, with forecasts suggesting copper prices may exceed historical highs [4] - The copper market is facing supply challenges due to mine shutdowns in regions like Chile and Indonesia, with companies like Ivanhoe Mines and Glencore lowering their production forecasts [4] - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for copper prices, with expectations that they could rise to $12,000 per ton amid both fundamental and financial drivers [4]