国信证券近日发布家电行业2026年2月投资策略：近期铜等原材料价格上涨引发市场对白电龙头盈利的 担忧，通过复盘此前几轮周期发现，原材料成本上涨对毛利率的负面影响逐渐减弱，白电龙头通过结构 调整、费用节省等方式，盈利能力有望穿越周期。2026年1月，以SHFE铜和SHFE铝收盘价月均值计 算，铜价和铝价同比分别上涨36.7%和20.9%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 白电1-2月排产降幅收窄，政策拉动下需求有望企稳。据产业在线数据，2月我国白电合计排产量达到 2379万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降22.1%；1-2月合计排产量预计下降5.0%。环比2025Q4排产10%以 上的降幅来看，白电排产表现有所修复。分品类看，2月空调内/外销排产量较去年同期内/外销量分 别-38.1%/-26.5%，合计排产量1149万台，较去年同期产量下降31.6%，1-2月累计下降10.3%；冰箱内/外 销排产量较去年同期内/外销量分别-17.1%/-8.0%，合计排产量600万台，较去年同期产量下降17.0%，1- 2月累计下降6.4%；洗衣机内/外销排产量较去年同期内/外销量分别-5.9%/+1.5%，合计排产量630万台， ...

（原标题：港股概念追踪|以旧换新政策带动消费需求释放 机构普遍看好家电产业链估值回暖（附概念 股）） 国家税务总局利用税收大数据对消费情况进行跟踪分析显示，2025年我国消费市场活跃。 智通财经APP获悉，新一轮以旧换新行动正在各地火热进行。在济南市济阳区，这几天就开展起乡村国 补活动，上百款家电、3C产品走进村镇，当地政府专项下发国补资格码，村民不仅可以直接享受国 补，还能额外享受到商家补贴，上千名附近村镇居民涌入活动现场，热闹非凡。 中信建投发布研报称，2026年面临铜价中枢上移与人民币升值的双重考验，该行认为其对家电龙头盈利 的冲击整体可控。过往经验看，顺价是化解成本压力最为有效的核心手段。国补落地下需求有支撑，元 旦后提价存共识。凭借强大的终端定价权、成熟的成本传导机制以及完善的汇率风险管理体系，龙头企 业有能力穿越周期波动，维持盈利模型的稳健。 当前板块估值处于历史低位，兼具稳健增长与高分红特性，配置价值凸显。 中信证券指出，预期改善，2025Q4主动偏股型基金重仓家电比例环比回升，但仍处于历史较低水平。 其中重仓白电比例有所回升；黑电持仓比例持平；厨电、小家电、照明、零部件板块关注度分化。展望 未 ...

国家税务总局利用税收大数据对消费情况进行跟踪分析显示，2025年我国消费市场活跃。 家电（核心股）产业链相关港股： 美的集团(00300)、海尔智家(06690)、海信家电（核心股）(00921)、TCL电子(01070)、创维集团 （00751）、小米集团-W（01810） 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 2025年，在以旧换新政策带动下，冰箱等日用家电（核心股）零售业、燃气灶等厨具卫具零售业、手机 等通信设备零售业销售收入同比分别增长17.4%、12.9%和18.6%，消费需求加速释放。 智通财经获悉，新一轮以旧换新行动正在各地火热进行。在济南市济阳区，这几天就开展起乡村国补活 动，上百款家电（核心股）、3C产品走进村镇，当地政府专项下发国补资格码，村民不仅可以直接享 受国补，还能额外享受到商家补贴，上千名附近村镇居民涌入活动现场，热闹非凡。 中信建投发布研报称，2026年面临铜价中枢上移与人民币升值的双重考验，该行认为其对家电（核心 股）龙头盈利的冲击整体可控。过往经验看，顺价是化解成本压力最为有效的核心手段。国补落地下需 求有支撑，元旦后提价存共识。凭借强大的终端定价权、 ...

Macro and Strategy - The "fixed income +" strategy enhances returns by participating in various asset classes while reducing portfolio volatility, improving the Sharpe ratio and minimizing drawdown risks [6][7] - Analysis of financial assets from different time frames shows that A-shares and US stocks lead the equity market, while long-term bonds have shown steady growth [6][7] - The report highlights the negative correlation between Chinese bonds and A-share indices, indicating a "seesaw effect" between stocks and bonds [7] Industry and Company Retail Industry - The report discusses the impact of gold price fluctuations on the jewelry retail market, referencing the "gold rush" of 2013 as a comparative case [10][11] - It notes that gold jewelry retail sales surged by 72.16% during the 2013 gold price drop, suggesting a potential similar consumer response in the current market [11] - Current market dynamics differ from 2013, with a focus on product innovation and brand storytelling driving consumer demand rather than solely price speculation [12][13] Aerospace Industry - SpaceX's application to launch over 1 million satellites aims to create a global AI computing infrastructure, marking a shift towards space-based computing capabilities [14][15] - This initiative is expected to drive growth in sectors like space photovoltaics and laser communication, indicating a new wave of investment opportunities in commercial aerospace [15] Pharmaceutical Industry - The tumor gene testing sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant stock price increases among leading companies in the field [16][19] - The report emphasizes the potential for tumor gene testing to cover various stages of cancer treatment, indicating a substantial market expansion [16][19] Home Appliance Industry - Rising raw material prices are expected to have a limited impact on the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers, as historical data shows diminishing effects over time [20][21] - Production rates for white goods are showing signs of recovery, with a projected stabilization in demand due to government policies [22][23] Chemical Industry - The report recommends investments in oil and gas, refining, potash, and phosphate sectors, highlighting a recovery in profitability within the chemical industry [24][25] - The report notes that the supply-side issues are being addressed through policies aimed at reducing low-quality competition, which should improve overall industry profitability [25][26] Metal Packaging Industry - The company, Aorikin, is positioned as a leader in metal packaging, with a strong market presence in both three-piece and two-piece can segments [28][29] - The report forecasts a recovery in profitability for two-piece cans due to industry consolidation and improved pricing power following recent acquisitions [29][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product innovation and market positioning in the gold jewelry sector, as well as those in the aerospace and pharmaceutical industries that are poised for growth [13][15][19] - In the home appliance sector, it recommends leading brands that can navigate raw material cost pressures effectively [20][21]

Group 1 - Sony and TCL have signed a memorandum of understanding to explore strategic cooperation in the home entertainment sector, planning to establish a joint venture with Sony holding 49% and TCL holding 51% [1] - The joint venture is expected to commence operations globally by April 2027, focusing on integrated business operations including development, design, manufacturing, sales, and customer service for products like televisions and home audio systems [1] - This partnership signifies a restructuring of power in the consumer electronics market, with Sony divesting its television business to concentrate on core strengths in semiconductors and gaming, while TCL leverages its advanced display technology and global scale [1] Group 2 - Sony's television business has historically defined industry standards, but has faced losses as the market transitioned to a phase of stock competition and structural upgrades, with sales declining by 9.6% to 564.1 billion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2025 [2] - The global television industry is witnessing a significant shift, with major Japanese manufacturers like Sharp and Panasonic also reducing or divesting their television operations, indicating a broader trend of power transfer in the television market [3] - TCL is projected to ship 30.4 million televisions in 2025, a 5.4% increase from 2024, capturing a 13.8% global market share, while Sony's shipments are expected to decline by 14%, resulting in a market share of only 1.9% [3] Group 3 - Chinese home appliance companies are leveraging domestic production advantages and national industrial strategies to enhance their global market presence, transitioning from scale expansion to value output [4] - The collaboration between domestic and foreign enterprises in the home appliance sector highlights a shift in global industrial competition from zero-sum games to ecological collaboration [4]

Core Views - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook despite recent challenges [5][3] - Rising raw material prices, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to have a limited impact on the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers, as historical data shows diminishing effects over time [1][17] - The report anticipates that the overall gross margin decline for white goods companies will be less than 2 percentage points due to price adjustments and cost-saving measures [1][17] Production and Demand Trends - In February, the total production of white goods in China reached 23.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.1%, but the rate of decline is improving compared to previous months [2][24] - The cumulative production decline for January and February is estimated at 5%, showing signs of recovery driven by government subsidy policies [2][24] - The report highlights that the demand for white goods is expected to stabilize and recover as the effects of national subsidy policies continue to manifest [2][24] Retail Market Performance - The retail scale of China's home appliance market is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2025, with small appliances showing relatively better performance [2][31] - Specific categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators are experiencing significant declines in retail sales, while kitchen small appliances are expected to see growth [2][31] Key Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector, and Stone Technology and Bear Electric in the small appliances sector [3][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong overseas growth potential and solid domestic performance, particularly those benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [12][14] Company Profitability Forecasts - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and TCL Smart Home, among others [4][50] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies suggest favorable valuations compared to historical averages, supporting the investment thesis [4][50]

Core Views - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook despite challenges from rising raw material prices and market competition [1][5][11]. Raw Material Price Impact - Recent increases in copper and aluminum prices have raised concerns about the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers. However, historical analysis shows that the negative impact of raw material cost increases on gross margins has diminished over time. For instance, during previous cycles from 2008 to 2022, the maximum quarterly gross margin decline for leading white goods companies was 5-7 percentage points in 2009-2011, around 5 percentage points in 2016-2017, and only about 2 percentage points in 2020-2022. The current price increases are expected to have a lesser impact, with an anticipated gross margin decline of less than 2 percentage points [1][17][18]. Production and Demand Trends - In January and February 2026, the total production of white goods in China was 23.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.1%. However, the cumulative production decline for the first two months is expected to be around 5%. The production performance has shown signs of recovery compared to a more than 10% decline in Q4 2025. The demand is expected to stabilize due to the effects of national subsidy policies [2][24]. Retail Market Performance - The retail market for home appliances in China is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2025, with a total retail scale of 893.1 billion yuan. Specific categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators are expected to see declines of 0.4% and 11.5%, respectively, while small kitchen appliances are expected to grow by 3.8% [2][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their performance and market position. For white goods, companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Home, and Hisense Home Appliances are highlighted. In the small appliance sector, Stone Technology, Bear Electric, and New Treasure are recommended. For black goods, TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual are suggested [3][12][50]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating that Midea Group is expected to have an EPS of 5.84 yuan in 2025 and 6.43 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio of 13 for 2025. Haier Smart Home is projected to have an EPS of 2.27 yuan in 2025 and 2.53 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio of 11 for 2025 [4][50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" [6][13]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, creating opportunities for recovery in the real estate supply chain, with a focus on key home appliance companies' annual report forecasts [2][6]. - Key home appliance companies are showing significant profit growth, with notable increases in net profits for companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot, while others like Roborock are experiencing declines [3][4][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Key Home Appliance Company Forecasts - Ecovacs is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.7-1.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 111%-123% [3]. - Ninebot expects a net profit of 1.67-1.85 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54%-71% [3]. - Roborock anticipates a net profit of no less than 1.34 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3]. - Anfu Technology forecasts a net profit of 220-250 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29%-51% [3]. - TCL Electronics expects an adjusted net profit of 2.33-2.57 billion HKD in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45%-60% [4]. - Beiding Co. anticipates a revenue of 950 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Electronics, and Hisense Visual, which are expected to perform well due to stable operations and high dividends [6][7]. - The report highlights the potential for smart home appliances to drive growth, particularly for leading robotic vacuum companies like Roborock and Ecovacs [6]. - Companies like Ninebot and Anfu Technology are noted for their stable performance and upward potential, making them attractive investment options [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the home appliance industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The rise of AI NAS, driven by Clawdbot, is expected to expand the demand for NAS, with Ugreen Technology likely to benefit significantly from this trend [5][14] - TCL Electronics is set to collaborate with Sony to take over Sony's television business, potentially allowing them to surpass Samsung and become the global leader in market share [22][23] - Stone Technology has launched new domestic floor cleaning robots, focusing on dual technology lines to enhance market penetration [25] - XGIMI continues to experience high growth overseas, with its new product Horizon 20 performing well in international markets [28] Summary by Sections AI NAS and Ugreen Technology - Clawdbot's popularity signifies a shift in AI applications towards local AI agents, creating a demand for edge hardware [8] - NAS is positioned as the optimal hardware for local AI agents due to its data centralization, low power consumption, and scalable computing power [11][12][13] - Ugreen Technology, as a leading consumer NAS provider in China, is expected to gain from the increased demand for local data platforms driven by AI agents [14][16] TCL Electronics and Sony Collaboration - TCL Electronics plans to establish a joint venture with Sony to manage Sony's home entertainment business, which could enhance their global market share [22] - This partnership is anticipated to leverage TCL's resources in panel production and Sony's brand strength to penetrate high-end markets [23] Stone Technology's Product Launch - Stone Technology has introduced two new high-end floor cleaning robots, targeting different market segments with innovative features [25] - The G30S Pro series and P20 Ultra are designed to address existing pain points in cleaning efficiency and user experience [25] XGIMI's Overseas Growth - XGIMI's Horizon 20 has shown strong sales performance in international markets, indicating successful product positioning and market strategy [28] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory as it challenges established competitors in the high-end projector market [28] Market Performance - The home appliance sector experienced a decline of 2.9% in the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, underperforming against the Shanghai Composite Index [32][35] - Specific segments such as black appliances saw a significant drop of 7.2%, indicating varying performance across categories [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The strategic partnership with Sony aims to establish a joint venture for integrated operations in the home entertainment sector, which includes television and audio products [9] - The collaboration is expected to leverage both companies' strengths, enhancing technology, scale, and global presence [9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 116.4 billion, HKD 132.3 billion, and HKD 145.8 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 26 billion, HKD 31 billion, and HKD 36 billion [9][10] - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from HKD 0.30 in 2023 to HKD 1.43 by 2027 [4][14] Financial Projections - Revenue (in million HKD): - 2023A: 78,986 - 2024A: 99,322 - 2025E: 116,386 - 2026E: 132,328 - 2027E: 145,814 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 10.7% - 2024A: 25.7% - 2025E: 17.2% - 2026E: 13.7% - 2027E: 10.2% [4] - EBITDA (in million HKD): - 2023A: 3,229 - 2024A: 4,457 - 2025E: 5,421 - 2026E: 6,578 - 2027E: 7,205 [4] Profitability Metrics - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 4.5% in 2023 to 16.2% in 2027 [4] - The report estimates a PE ratio of 13x for 2026, leading to a target price of HKD 16.25 per share [9][14] Business Segments - Display Business Revenue (in million HKD): - 2024A: 69,440 (YoY: 23%) - 2025E: 77,884 (YoY: 12%) - 2026E: 86,430 (YoY: 11%) - 2027E: 94,691 (YoY: 10%) [11] - Innovative Business Revenue (in million HKD): - 2024A: 27,009 (YoY: 45%) - 2025E: 35,386 (YoY: 31%) - 2026E: 42,376 (YoY: 20%) - 2027E: 47,192 (YoY: 11%) [11] - Internet Business Revenue (in million HKD): - 2024A: 2,627 (YoY: -5%) - 2025E: 3,038 (YoY: 16%) - 2026E: 3,440 (YoY: 13%) - 2027E: 3,845 (YoY: 12%) [11]