多家机构看好金价长期走势，德意志银行预测今年金价或突破6000美元/盎司，东方金诚也认为，长期 来看，金价上涨的逻辑延续，且不具备逆转条件，国际黄金价格有望上涨至6000美元/盎司。但同时也 警示，短期涨幅过大积累了大量获利盘，可能引发技术性回调，投资者需警惕高位剧烈波动的风险。 监管应对：门槛与风险等级双提升 1月29日，国际现货黄金价格盘中强势突破5500美元/盎司大关，一度逼近5600美元关口。本周以来，金 价累计涨幅超500美元，年初至今涨幅已高达28%。回顾本轮行情，涨势之迅猛远超传统避险逻辑范畴 ——国际金价在短短一个月内飙升1200美元，从4000美元攀升至5500美元仅耗时不到三个月。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞指出，本轮金价飙升主要受三重因素驱动：一是地缘政治风险扩大 引发避险情绪急剧升温；二是政策不确定性提升；三是美元指数持续走弱，显著降低了黄金的持有成 本。这三股合力共同助推金价不断刷新历史新高。 驱动因素：地缘紧张与政策预期的共振 具体来看，地缘政治层面，近期局势急剧恶化。特朗普敦促伊朗尽快达成核协议，否则将面临远比去年 6月更为猛烈的军事打击，而伊朗方面则表态若被步步紧逼，将作 ...

行业研究 | 银行 证券研究报告/行业研究/行业深度 2026 年 01 月 28 日 银行业：积极推动融资降本举措， 首批业绩快报提振市场情绪 银行业 ETF 双周报（2026.01.12-2026.01.25） 研报摘要 行业监管动态： 1、国家金融监督管理总局发布《银行保险机构资产管理产品信息披 露管理办法》； 2、国家金融监督管理总局发布《银行业保险业数字金融高质量发展 实施方案》； 3、国家金融监督管理总局发布《商业银行并购贷款管理办法》； 4、财政部、工业和信息化部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局关于实 施民间投资专项担保计划的通知； 5、财政部、国家发展改革委、工业和信息化部、中国人民银行、金 融监管总局关于实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策的通知； 6、财政部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局关于优化实施个人消费贷 款财政贴息政策有关事项的通知； 7、财政部、商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局关于优化实施服 务业经营主体贷款贴息政策的通知； 8、财政部、国家发展改革委、中国人民银行、金融监管总局关于优 化实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策的通知。 行业动态： 1、中国人民银行决定下调再贷款、再贴现利率； 2、中国人民 ...

随着公募基金四季报披露完毕，2025年公募行业规模的全景浮现在公众面前。其中，表现最为亮眼的是 ETF(交易性开放式指数基金)市场——规模一度突破6万亿元，年内增长超2万亿元。 这场资管行业的盛宴，悄然重塑着金融渠道的"权力格局"。 中基协披露的2025年上半年的数据统计可见，蚂蚁基金作为头部第三方平台，以15675亿元的非货规模 保有量稳居第一；招行在非货基金保有规模上，仅次于蚂蚁基金，以10419亿元排名第二，但在股票指 数基金保有规模上，却只排第六。 这引出一个关键问题：面对同样的产品，为何渠道的收获天差地别？ 答案或许在渠道的基因与土壤上。前述资深公募机构电商业务负责人表示，ETF具有强烈的工具属性和 交易属性，券商天然拥有证券账户和交易系统，是ETF的"原生家园"；而银行与第三方平台，则需要改 造销售逻辑来参与这场游戏，这从一开始就注定了路径的差异。 蚂蚁财富的模式 在受访的多名公募机构相关人士眼中，蚂蚁基金销售ETF的成功常被简单归因为"流量大"，这是一种误 读。一名头部公募指数业务部负责人指出："蚂蚁基金真正的能力，不是把产品推给海量用户，而是把 复杂的指数投资，解构并重组为一种可被广泛接受的服 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the scale of bank wealth management sales, with a total of 13.46 trillion yuan by December 2025, down 1.05% from November but up 10% from the beginning of the year [1][7] - Postal Savings Bank showed remarkable growth, leading with a 27.2% increase, while China Merchants Bank followed with a 12.2% increase [1][5] - The overall growth in wealth management sales is attributed to a "deposit migration" trend, where customers are shifting their funds into wealth management products [7][10] Group 1: Bank Performance - By December 2025, China Merchants Bank led with a wealth management sales scale of 4.41 trillion yuan, followed by CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank, both exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1][2] - Postal Savings Bank's rise in ranking from 7th to 4th among the 11 banks indicates a significant shift in market dynamics [2][4] - The total growth in wealth management sales among the 11 banks amounted to 1.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10% [7][6] Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The growth of Postal Savings Bank's wealth management sales is linked to strategic reforms and an expansion of distribution channels, with approximately 40,000 outlets enhancing customer reach [5][6] - The shift in focus from "product sales" to "product configuration" aims to cater to high-net-worth clients, which is seen as a crucial strategy for growth [5][10] - The demand for stable, low-volatility wealth management products remains strong, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, driving customer interest [9][10] Group 3: Market Trends - The report notes a seasonal pattern in bank wealth management, characterized by "quarter-end contraction" and "quarter-beginning recovery," influenced by regulatory requirements [8][10] - Despite a slight contraction in December, the overall wealth management scale showed resilience, indicating strong underlying demand [8][9] - Predictions suggest that the wealth management scale could reach approximately 38 trillion yuan by the end of 2026, with a projected growth rate of around 12% [12]

Core Insights - The report indicates that by December 2025, the wealth management distribution scale of 11 national banks reached 13.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.05% from November but a 10% increase from the beginning of the year [1] - The growth in wealth management scale is largely driven by the "deposit migration" phenomenon, where customers are shifting their funds from traditional deposits to wealth management products [1][10] - Postal Savings Bank showed remarkable growth with a 27.2% increase, leading among the 11 banks, while China Merchants Bank followed with a 12.2% increase [1][6] Bank Performance - By December 2025, China Merchants Bank led with a wealth management distribution scale of 4.41 trillion yuan, followed by CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank with 1.5 trillion and 1.3 trillion yuan respectively [1] - The ranking of the 11 banks remained relatively stable, with Postal Savings Bank rising from 7th to 4th place by year-end [2] - The overall wealth management distribution scale of the 11 banks grew by 1.22 trillion yuan throughout the year, with a 10% year-on-year increase [8] Factors Driving Growth - The significant growth of Postal Savings Bank's wealth management distribution is attributed to its strategic reforms and expansion of distribution channels, which have broadened its retail business volume [6][7] - The bank's extensive network of approximately 40,000 outlets and a strong customer base have made low-volatility wealth management products attractive alternatives to traditional deposits [6] - The shift in focus from "product sales" to "product configuration" has allowed banks to better serve high-net-worth clients, enhancing their wealth management offerings [7] Market Trends - The average yield of wealth management products fell below 2% for the first time, recorded at 1.98%, yet the number of investors holding these products increased by 14.37% year-on-year [10] - The "deposit migration" narrative remains strong, with banks focusing on deeper market penetration and optimizing customer service to attract more clients [11] - The wealth management market is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a potential scale of 38 trillion yuan by the end of 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of around 12% [12]

Core Insights - The total scale of wealth management products sold by 11 national banks reached 13.46 trillion yuan by December 2025, showing a decrease of 1.05% from November but a growth of 10% compared to the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Market Trends - The data indicates a "quarter-end contraction" characteristic in the wealth management sector during the last two months of the year [1] - The growth in wealth management scale is largely driven by the "deposit migration" logic, suggesting a shift in consumer behavior towards wealth management products [1] Group 2: Bank Performance - Postal Savings Bank exhibited a strong growth rate of 27.2% for the year, leading among the 11 banks in the study [1] - China Merchants Bank, known as the "king of retail," recorded a growth of 12.2% from the beginning of the year, placing it second in growth rate [1] Group 3: Strategic Insights - Analysts suggest that the key to significant growth for these banks lies in their extensive and down-market channels, as well as a strategic shift towards "product allocation" [1]

东 东兴晨报 P1 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 经济要闻 1. 外交部：中英两国领导人成功会晤，同意发展长期稳定的全面战略伙伴 关系（资料来源：同花顺） 2. 财政部：12 月份，全国共销售彩票同比下降 9.1%。其中，福利彩票机 构销售 172.96 亿元，同比下降 9.6%；体育彩票机构销售 350.54 亿元，同 比下降 8.8%。2025 年全年，全国共销售彩票 6279.69 亿元，同比增长 0.7%。 （资料来源：同花顺） 3. 发改委：今年春运期间全社会跨区域人员流动量预计将达 95 亿人次， 创历史新高。自驾出行将继续处于主体地位，占比达八成左右。铁路、民航 客运量预计分别达到 5.4 亿人次和 9500 万人次，总体规模和单日峰值均有 望超过历史同期的峰值。（资料来源：同花顺） 4. 商务部：2025 年，我国全行业对外直接投资 12455.8 亿元人民币，比 上年增长 7.4%。其中，我国境内投资者共对全球 153 个国家和地区的 11048 家境外企业进行了非金融类直接投资，累计投资 10404.2 亿元人民币，增长 1.6%。（资料来源：同花顺） 5. 最高法：最高人民法院知 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600036 招商银行 | | 5.44(Z ﻋ | 7.13% | -3.86 Z | -5.06% | -1.58 Z | -2.07% | | 600016 民生银行 | | 3.00 Z | 14.00% | -9790.09万 | -4.56% | -2.03 Z | -9.44% | | 600015 华夏银行 | | 5298.26万 | 8.72% | -1942.12万 | -3.20% | -3356.14万 | -5.52% | | 601916 浙商银行 | | -729.54万 | -1.24% | 971.12万 | 1.64% | -241.58万 | -0.41% | | 000001 平安银行 | | -1.13 Z | -5.63% | 6444.83万 | 3.22% | 4825.40万 | 2.41% | | 601166 兴 ...

招联成立于2015年3月，是经原中国银监会批准、由招商银行和中国联通（600050）共同组建的消费金 融公司，注册地址位于深圳前海，注册资本100亿元。目前，招联为中国银行业协会消费金融专业委员 会主任单位，是个人消费贷款财政贴息首批经办机构。近年来，招联以"不忘初心、惠无止境"为发展宗 旨，坚持"以科技践行普惠，让信用不负期待"发展理念，主要业务指标位居31家消费金融公司前列。招 联拥有"好期贷""信用付"两大消费金融产品体系，全面覆盖购物、旅游、教育、装修等众多消费场景， 支持服务亿万普罗大众，业务遍布全国各地。 作为金融业有知名度和影响力的专家，董希淼经常性参与金融管理部门、行业协会政策咨询与研讨活 动，研究报告多次获得重要批示。董希淼2016—2018年连续三年获中国银行业发展研究优秀成果一等 奖、二等奖，2018年获"新金融研究贡献奖"，2023年获中国银行业发展研究成果优秀奖。近五年来，董 希淼在SSCI、CSSCI期刊和《人民日报》《中国金融》等发表学术论文及评论数百篇，接受中央电视台 等主流媒体采访超千次。著有《有趣的金融》(《当代金融家》2016年度十大金融图书)等。2015年，董 希淼与中 ...

2026.01.29 按照现有规定，只有银行能向非金融机构借出黄金。在这个过程中，银行将金库中的黄金"借"给企业， 企业或将其投入生产，或通过金融工具组合，将其变为一种高效的融资手段。 据第一财经初步统计，2025年以来，包括潮宏基、迪阿股份、宝鼎科技、周大生、湖南黄金、山东黄金 等多家企业均在银行办理了黄金租赁业务。 在黄金租赁产业链中，谁在称霸江湖？用金企业如何通过租赁降低成本？又有哪些不为人知的风险与故 事？且看第一财经揭开黄金租赁产业的全貌。 租金需求大涨，产业链玩家多 根据厦门信达最新披露，该公司准备在2026年开展黄金租赁业务，计划通过银行办理黄金租赁，并配套 远期定向黄金购买合约，预计保证金占用不超过5000万元，任一交易日持有的最高合约价值不超过等值 5亿元。 金价接连猛涨，用金企业租赁需求大涨，手握大量黄金用于出租的"金主"，这回可能赚翻了。 近期，黄金价格再创新高。Wind数据显示，1月29日，国际金价再度刷新历史高位，突破5500美元/盎司 关口，年内累计涨幅已接近30%。随着金价持续上涨，下游用金企业的租赁需求，也在水涨船高。相较 前些年，一些黄金首饰企业去年的黄金租赁规模，已经以"吨 ...