证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 量化看市场系列之三："看线宝"小程序上线 ❖ 摘要 自 2023 年 1 月开启 K 线量化研究以来，我们在这场深度的探索中已走过近一 千个昼夜。我们始终坚信：唯有在一个角度上的极致深耕，方能孕育出真正触 及市场本质的投资策略。 在过去的三年里，我们的研究路径经历了四个核心阶段的跨越： 但由于部分客户 IP 限制与浏览器问题，形态云在部分客户的电脑上无法正常 显示，我们将形态云的核心服务搬运到微信小程序上，采用 WXML/WXSS、 小程序框架，调用原生组件，启动速度快，操作流畅，体验接近原生系统，并 极易与社交场景结合（如分享给好友/群），也完美连接线上线下（扫码即用）。 我们构建了"看线宝"小程序。 "看线宝"小程序内置了个股、可转债、期货、ETF 形态量化分析、ETF 智能 择时与 ETF 轮动分析等等。深度集成 ECharts (WeChat 适配版)，针对 K 线形 态标注、多轴联动（股价与净值线）进行了深度定制。并采用微信最新官方隐 私授权指引，结合 OAuth 2.0 授权流程进行手机号加密解析。 ❖ 风险提示： 数据基于历史，不代表未来。 金融工程 点评报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing trend of insurance capital stake acquisitions, with a notable example being Taiping Asset's acquisition of a 5% stake in Shanghai Airport, marking the first instance of such activity in 2026 [1] - In 2025, the number of stake acquisitions by insurance capital reached 41, a significant increase from 20 in 2024, setting a near ten-year high, second only to the historical peak in 2015 [1] - The current wave of stake acquisitions differs from previous ones, primarily driven by two considerations: the emphasis on high dividend stocks in a low-interest-rate environment and the strategy of long-term equity investments in high-quality targets with stable ROE to optimize asset structure [1] Group 2 - The trend of frequent stake acquisitions by insurance capital is expected to continue in 2026, driven by the same two investment logic considerations [1] - Other funds are focusing more on low-volatility dividend strategies, as exemplified by the low-volatility dividend index (H30269.CSI), which selects securities with stable dividends, high dividend yields, and low volatility [1] - As of January 13, the one-year dividend yield of the low-volatility dividend index was 4.45%, with the Huaxia low-volatility dividend ETF (159547) being the lowest fee ETF tracking this index [1]

有消息称，覃汉目前已经因此事被监管部门立案调查。就此，南都·湾财社记者尝试联系浙商证券方 面，但截至目前未获回应。 为拉票故意不翻空 朋友圈吐嘈引买方众怒 2025年12月17日，2025年新财富最佳分析师评选结果出炉。根据公告，覃汉带领的团队斩获固收研究第 五名，创下其个人职业生涯最佳成绩。 一条朋友圈，将固收首席送上了舆论的风口。 | | | 固定收益研究 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 机构 | 团队 | 总分 | | 1 | 华泰证券 | 研究小组(张继强、仇文竹、殷超、吴 宇航、陶冶、文晨听、吴靖、朱沁宜、 | 40340.296 | | | | 方翔宇、王晓宇) | | | 2 | 华西证券 | 研究小组(刘郁、姜丹、田乐蒙、肖金 川、黄晓曦、郑日诚、黄佳苗、董远、 | 31481.596 | | | | 曾禹童、钱青静) | | | 3 | 甲万宏源址券 | 研究小组(黄伟平、栾强、杨雪芳、徐 | 29564.247 | | | | 47) | | | 4 | | 研究小组(周冠南、张晶晶、许洪波、 | | | | 华创证券 | 靳晓航、宋琦、王紫宇、张 ...

Market Performance - A-shares continued to rise on January 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 17-day consecutive increase, reaching a new high not seen in over a decade, closing up 1.09% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase of over 510 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, setting a new record for single-day trading volume in A-shares [2] - Over 4,100 stocks rose, with more than 200 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] AI Sector Growth - The driving force behind the A-share market's rise on January 12 was the collective surge of AI application stocks, with the AI marketing index increasing by over 10% [3] - Notable individual stocks such as ZhiPu AI and multi-modal AI saw increases exceeding 8%, while AIGC and AI agent indices rose over 7% [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of AI in driving the integration of manufacturing and intelligence, planning to implement a "AI + manufacturing" initiative to enhance the smart upgrade of the manufacturing sector [3] Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices continued to rise due to high geopolitical uncertainty, with gold futures reaching a historical high of over $4,612 per ounce on January 11 and breaking the $4,600 mark on January 12 [7] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with several brands quoting prices above 1,400 yuan per gram, reflecting a general increase of 20 yuan per gram compared to the previous day [7] - Silver prices also surged, with London spot silver exceeding $84 per ounce, marking a rise of over 5.5% [8] Future Outlook - Institutions predict that despite short-term downward pressures, both precious metals and industrial metal prices are expected to have upward potential this year [9] - The AI sector is anticipated to see significant developments by 2026, with various retail segments benefiting from AI-driven logic, particularly in cross-border e-commerce and AI smart hardware [4] - The concept of Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) is gaining traction, with expectations that it will enhance brand visibility in AI-generated content, leading to increased commercial opportunities [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Huachuang Securities is actively working on the shareholder qualification process for Pacific Securities, which is currently under review by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Yuxin stated that any new developments regarding the shareholder qualification will be disclosed in a timely manner [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Employment Data - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy in January, with two rate cuts anticipated in the remainder of 2026 due to initial signs of labor market stability [1] - JPMorgan has removed its forecast for a rate cut in 2026, now predicting a 25 basis point increase in Q3 2027 [1] - Societe Generale believes the decline in unemployment and rising wages provide a stronger rationale for the Fed to hold rates steady in January [1] Group 2: Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risks - Goldman Sachs indicates that despite ongoing geopolitical risks, oil prices may continue to decline due to ample supply, predicting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average $56 and $52 per barrel respectively in 2026 [2] Group 3: Chinese Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts a "mild re-inflation" in China in 2026, driven by a slight increase in PPI and CPI, with core CPI expected to rise due to various factors including food prices and service costs [3] - CITIC Securities also notes that the balance between external and internal demand will be crucial for the A-share market, with a higher probability of upward movement in early 2026 [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Market Trends - CITIC Jinpu predicts that copper prices will continue to rise, with the market not yet at an end, and expects significant support for copper prices despite short-term corrections [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that investment in the power grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan period may reach 3.8 trillion yuan, focusing on high-quality development and stability in the energy sector [6] Group 5: Currency and Market Dynamics - Huatai Securities expects the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts occurring after the new Fed chair takes office [7] - Huachuang Securities highlights the commercialization of brain-computer interfaces, indicating a growing market with significant potential for expansion beyond the medical field [8] - Shenwan Hongyuan predicts that the RMB will appreciate by 2-3% annually over the next few years, with a total appreciation of over 30% in the next decade, benefiting the stock market [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise of the Guotai AI ETF (159388) by over 7.2%, driven by advancements in domestic computing power and commercialization breakthroughs in the AI sector [1] - Huachuang Securities notes a comprehensive explosion of inference and Agent ecosystems, with global models gradually entering a commercial closed loop [1] - The strategic partnership between OpenAI and Disney for the Sora model signifies the transition of video models from laboratory experiments to industrial production [1] - Zhipu, a leading independent large model developer in China, is gaining market share, showcasing the progress of domestic model commercialization [1] - Huawei's Ascend ecosystem has surpassed 3,000 partners, supporting the wave of private deployment of domestic models [1] - The scaling law in the electronics sector remains effective, with multi-modal and Agent models driving the growth of AI computing power demand, leading to potential non-linear performance improvements in the PCB industry [1] - The media sector is experiencing valuation expansion due to AI applications, with leading companies accelerating capitalization amid a backdrop of rapid commercialization in domestic applications [1] - The humanoid robot industry is moving from concept validation to commercial realization, with companies capable of productization likely to experience a "Davis double hit" [1] - Overall, the AI infrastructure is still in its early stages, with deepening integration of domestic computing power, algorithms, and scenarios, maintaining high industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The Guotai AI ETF (159388) tracks the ChiNext AI Index (970070), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20% [2] - This index selects listed companies involved in AI technology and related applications from the ChiNext market, covering various aspects from hardware manufacturing to software development [2] - The index reflects the overall performance of AI-related listed companies in the ChiNext market, characterized by outstanding technological innovation and growth potential [2]

Group 1: Customer Collaboration - The company has been collaborating with customer G for several years, transitioning from consumer electronics to server business, with an order amount reaching hundreds of millions in 2025 [2] - For customer N, the company provides testing services for PCBA motherboards, with mass production expected to begin in 2025, and a projected equipment demand in the low four-digit range for 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Product Development and Progress - The company's liquid cooling module is currently used in testing equipment, with small batch shipments to customer N and plans to integrate it into cabinets [3] - The robotics business is addressing customer T's testing needs, with individual units priced over one million [3] Group 3: Revenue Expectations - In the AI server testing sector, the company anticipates significant growth, with a high revenue contribution from customers G and M in Q3 [3] - The automotive electronics business is expected to account for 20% of revenue in 2025, with continued market demand growth in 2026 [3][4] Group 4: Market Opportunities - In the consumer electronics sector, stable revenue is expected from testing equipment for mobile phones and tablets, with potential growth in AI glasses [4] - The company aims to transition to a component supplier, leveraging insights gained from collaboration with customer N to explore new market opportunities [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The bond market experienced a "poor start" at the beginning of 2026 due to multiple factors such as the strong performance of the equity and commodity markets, large - scale government bond issuance at the beginning of the year, and increased redemption pressure on funds. Although some policies are beneficial to the bond market, the market still has concerns about the bond market's performance in January and 2026 [1][2][11]. - The commodity market shows a "re - inflation" trading logic at the beginning of the year, but the sustainability of the commodity price increase remains to be observed. If the actual situation does not meet expectations, it may bring trading opportunities for the bond market [3][39]. - For the bond market strategy, the 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the leverage strategy is still effective. The allocation of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks is better than trading [3][4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. The bond market experienced a "poor start" - **Reason 1: The strong performance of the equity and commodity markets suppresses the bond market** - The PMI in December rebounded counter - seasonally, and policies were introduced, boosting the opening - year macro - expectations. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 4000 points, and the Wind All - A Index rose 5.1%. - The expectation of continued fiscal efforts and investment recovery in 2026 led to the warming of re - inflation trading. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 2.5% month - on - month, with metal varieties being relatively strong [1][12][14]. - **Reason 2: The large - scale issuance of government bonds at the beginning of the year raises concerns about supply** - The issuance scale of key - term government bonds at the beginning of the year was significantly larger than that of the same period last year, causing supply concerns. The current government bond issuance is in line with the neutral issuance speed under a 4% deficit ratio, and there may be room for acceleration in the future. - The bidding for local bonds in the first week of January was not good, and the spread between local bonds and government bonds has exceeded 20bp. Future policies to control bond - issuing costs need attention [19][21][24]. - **Reason 3: Increased redemption pressure and continuous net selling by funds** - At the beginning of the year, the funds for fund volume - boosting flowed back, and the scale of credit bond ETFs decreased rapidly after the New Year. - Since the beginning of the year, affected by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect, inflation expectations, and supply concerns, funds have continuously sold bonds net, mainly old - term policy financial bonds within 10 years and inter - bank certificates of deposit [26]. 2. Is the commodity market trading re - inflation? - The commodity market shows a "re - inflation" logic, with strong performance in non - precious metals and mid - upstream sectors such as non - ferrous and black metals. The driving forces include policy - induced macro - expectation improvement, the capital effect of precious metals, and the resonance of risk preferences during the equity spring rally. - Specific factors include the repair of undervalued sectors by speculative funds, the tightening of coal supply, the early - stage production of industrial products after the holiday, and the bottoming - out and recovery of inflation expectations. However, the current trading is mainly at the expectation level, and the sustainability of the commodity price increase remains to be observed [30][33][34]. 3. Bond market strategy: The 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point, the leverage strategy is still effective, and the allocation of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is better than trading - **The 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the 1.9% level has allocation value** - It is expected that the 10y Treasury bond is close to the high point of the shock range, and the 1.9% level is worth allocating. It can be gradually built according to the liability situation. - The 10y Treasury bond fluctuates around OMO + 30 - 50bp as the core range, with an additional 5bp of possible extreme fluctuations. - The first quarter may be the high - point period of the bond market shock, so the current 1.9% level has allocation value [38][43]. - **Can the leverage strategy continue?** - At the beginning of the year, the funds are relatively stable and loose, and the bond market leverage level has increased significantly. The carry - trade spread is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period last year, so the leverage strategy is still effective. - In the middle and late ten - days, factors such as the tax period and government bond payment may cause fluctuations in capital prices, but it is unlikely to tighten significantly. The marginal change of certificate of deposit pricing can be observed, and the leverage level can be adjusted flexibly if necessary [44][47][49]. - **How to participate in the current Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks?** - **From the allocation perspective**: Currently, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds within 2 years have no obvious advantages compared with medium - term notes of the same rating. For 2 - 3y bonds, some city and rural commercial bank entities can be appropriately selected for bottom - position allocation. Institutions with stable liability ends can participate in the allocation of 4 - 5y bonds. - **From the trading perspective**: If the holding period is less than 1 month, the 10y interest - rate bond is better than the 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. If the holding period is 3 months, the 5y Tier 2 and perpetual bonds can better reflect the coupon and riding value. Considering the current headwinds in the bond market, the trading strategy is recommended to prioritize 10y interest - rate bonds, and the trading of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds should wait for a favorable market [53][58]. 4. Review of the interest - rate bond market: The stock - bond seesaw and supply concerns lead to a steeper yield curve - **Funding situation**: The central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase withdrawals, and the funding situation was stable and balanced [69]. - **Primary issuance**: The net financing of government bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, while the net financing of policy financial bonds decreased [74]. - **Benchmark changes**: The term spread of government bonds widened, and the term spread of China Development Bank bonds narrowed [81].

Economic Data Review - In December, the ADP employment number in the U.S. was below expectations, with a growth of 41,000 jobs compared to an expected 50,000[9] - The October trade deficit narrowed to $29.4 billion, the lowest since mid-2009, with a previous deficit of $48.1 billion revised from $52.8 billion[9] - The ISM Services PMI rose significantly to 54.4 in December, exceeding the expected 52.2, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, indicating continued contraction[9] Employment Trends - The initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 in the week of January 3, up from 200,000 the previous week[24] - The continuing jobless claims increased to 1.914 million, compared to 1.858 million the prior week[24] - The number of job vacancies increased, with the INDEED job vacancy index averaging 104.8 in December, up from 103.1 in November[28] Consumer and Retail Activity - The Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate fell to 7.1% for the week of January 3, down from 7.6% the previous week[16] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. rose to 6.16% as of January 8, compared to 6.15% the previous week[19] - The MBA market composite index, reflecting mortgage applications, increased to 270.8, a 0.3% rise from the previous week[19] Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the U.S. was 0.863 on January 9, up from 0.795 the previous week, indicating a loosening of financial conditions[35] - The offshore dollar liquidity showed improvement for the yen against the dollar, while the euro against the dollar deteriorated[39] - The 10-year U.S.-Eurozone government bond yield spread widened to 126.8 basis points, compared to 121.5 basis points the previous week[42]