2026 年 02 月 24 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 避险情绪升级，贵金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260216-20260220 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 有色金属 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，2 月 13 日环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.41%，深证成指上涨 1.39%，沪深 300 上涨 0.36%，有色 金属（申万）指数上涨 1.70%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.34 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 1.06%，铝下跌 1.88%，能源金属上涨 2.66%，小金属上涨 6.66%，铜上涨 1.10 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Nonferrous Metals ETF Fund (516650), which opened with a gain of 3.12% at 2.212 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Nonferrous Metals ETF Fund include Zijin Mining, which rose by 4.53%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium, all showing significant increases in their stock prices [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 114.05% since its inception on June 9, 2021, and a 1.50% return over the past month [1]

消息面上，春节假期期间海外有色金属价格普遍上涨，LME铜、镍、锌等主要工业金属价格环比分别 上涨0.64%、2.66%、1.35%，上期所黄金、白银亦分别上涨2.42%、3.21%。 宏观层面，2026年全球主要经济体有望延续流动性宽松态势，美联储降息预期升温，实际利率下行，推 动有色金属金融属性回归，贵金属、铜等品种价格弹性放大。同时，美国加征全球关税及地缘紧张局势 升级，显著推升市场避险情绪，叠加美国法院裁定其关税权限越权引发政策混乱预期，进一步强化有色 金属价格支撑逻辑。 华西证券指出，供应方面，全球铜矿供应端扰动呈现持续加剧、深度演化的态势。智利铜业委员会 （Cochilco）数据显示，12月Codelco铜产量同比增3.7%至18.14万吨，但铜矿品位下降已成趋势。2025 年以来，铜矿供应扰动频发，若延续至2026年，将进一步加剧市场担忧。 相关产品方面，天弘中证工业有色金属主题指数(A类：017192；C类：017193)紧密跟踪中证工业有色 金属主题指数，中证工业有色金属主题指数选取市值较大的30只业务涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀土金属等行 业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映工业有色金属主题上市公司 ...

（3）新能源及小金属板块：新能源及小金属受假期效应影响交投平淡。锂板块矿端点价相对活跃，下 游已完成部分节前补库，后续方向有赖于电动车及储能终端增速的验证；镍板块受印尼产业政策落地及 矿端紧缺预期影响，成本重心上移形成底部支撑。稀土市场因节假日询报价热度降低，下游磁材需求偏 弱致成交受限，但随着金融属性对该板块的渗透加深，后续价格波动的弹性或将有所放大。 截至2026年2月24日 10:44，有色金属ETF(512400)上涨3.69%，盘中换手2.13%，成交8.02亿元。跟踪指 数中证申万有色金属指数成分股白银有色上涨10.03%，铂科新材上涨8.23%，铜陵有色上涨7.80%，永 兴材料，兴业银锡等个股跟涨。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，中证申万有色金属指数从沪深市场申万有色金 属及非金属材料行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映沪深市场有色金属行业上市公司证 券的整体表现。指数前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、北方稀土、中国铝业、华友钴业、中金 黄金、山东黄金、兴业银锡、赣锋锂业、赤峰黄金。 春节期间海外有色金属市场整体呈现偏强震荡格局，三方面因素共同重塑 ...

铝：截至2月12日，电解铝库存89.2万吨，周度累库5.6万吨，较2025年同期增加36万吨，社库规模为近三年同期高 位，供需错配的压力逐步凸显。供应端，国内及印尼电解铝项目稳步爬产。需求端，春节来临，下游对原料需求 边际转弱，叠加铝价较高，企业铸锭意愿大幅增强，2月铝水比例走低，成为驱动国内铝库存上行的核心因素。展 望后市，当前电解铝锭累库驱动逻辑未发生实质改变，铝水比例下滑进一步加剧铝锭供给压力，叠加春节假期临 近市场交投氛围逐步进入停滞状态，国内铝锭累库节奏将明显加快，预计节后首周国内铝锭库存将攀升至120万吨 附近。重点关注：中国宏桥、天山铝业、神火股份、云铝股份、中国铝业、创新实业、百通能源。 # 领导开工大吉，祝您# 2026年投资马到成功！ 有色观点更新120260223 铜：宏观层面，国内因春节前资金偏谨慎，海外方面，上周五美国最高法院裁决废除特朗普部分全球关税成为最 大催化剂，显著缓解贸易不确定性，风险偏好回升推动铜价反弹，但特朗普迅速援引1974年《 # 领导开工大吉，祝您# 2026年投资马到成功！ 有色观点更新120260223 铜：宏观层面，国内因春节前资金偏谨慎，海外方面，上周五美 ...

国信证券最新观点认为，关键矿产的资源属性愈发凸显，由于供给高度集中、地缘风险频发以及新兴需 求刚性增长，多数品种供需将维持紧平衡，价格中枢有望稳步抬升。 在宏观不确定性中，资本市场通过"真金白银"的配置流向，表达了对关键矿产战略价值及资源品安全逻 辑的深度锚定。根据机构统计，2025年，有色和化工相关公募基金资产净值实现大幅扩容，合计规模由 2024年的143亿元增加至2025年的967亿元。其中，有色相关基金规模从2024年111亿元增加至2025年的 666亿元。紫金矿业、云铝股份、天华新能、中矿资源、洛阳钼业等矿产龙头增持金额居前。 华福证券认为，贵金属方面，短期而言，美联储降息预期摇摆，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言， 全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心，长期配置价值不 改。工业金属方面，随美联储降息加深提振投资和消费，同时打开国内货币政策空间，叠加海外宽财政 带来的通胀反弹将支撑铜价中枢上移，新能源需求强劲将带动供需缺口拉大，继续看好铜价。国内天花 板+能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡致铝价易涨难跌。 节后首个交易日，有色金属板块集体大涨，贵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector has experienced a significant surge, driven by geopolitical risks and favorable macroeconomic conditions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals stocks saw substantial gains, with notable increases such as Xiaocheng Technology rising over 13%, Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit, and Sichuan Gold increasing by over 9% [1]. - Spot gold prices broke above $5200 per ounce for the first time since January 30, marking a nearly 2% increase within the day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract rose by 13%, reaching 22,366 yuan per kilogram [1]. Group 2: Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its gold price target to $6200 per ounce, citing ongoing geopolitical risks and a favorable macro environment as key drivers for rising gold prices [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish mid-term outlook on gold, predicting prices will gradually rise to $5400 per ounce by the end of 2026, despite a temporary slowdown in central bank gold purchases [2]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - U.S. economic and employment data have shown positive performance, but concerns about inflation have delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including military threats against Iran and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly following a Supreme Court ruling against certain tariffs, has contributed to market volatility and increased interest in precious metals [3]. Group 4: Market Trends During Holidays - During the Spring Festival, the precious metals market experienced two phases: initial declines due to expectations of delayed interest rate cuts, followed by a recovery driven by geopolitical tensions [4]. - The U.S. military's deployment in the Middle East and disappointing economic data have combined to create a renewed demand for gold and silver, pushing prices higher towards the end of the holiday period [4].

Group 1 - Precious metals prices have been rising during the Spring Festival, with spot gold reaching $5,200 per ounce, marking a nearly 2% increase since January 30 [1] - The main silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 13%, reaching 22,366 yuan per kilogram [1] - The U.S. macroeconomic data, including resilient employment figures and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, have weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing the anticipated first rate cut from June to July [1] Group 2 - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has risen by 3.44%, with component stocks such as silver and copper showing significant gains, including a 9.40% increase in silver and a 6.59% rise in Xinyi Silver [2] - The Nonferrous Metals Industry Index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metals sector, based on a selection of 50 securities with strong scale and liquidity [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 49.87% of the total, including major companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks have strengthened further, with Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit, and several other companies experiencing significant gains [1] Company Performance - Sichuan Gold reached the daily limit increase [1] - Xiaocheng Technology rose over 10% [1] - Other companies such as Zhaojin Gold, Western Gold, Chifeng Gold, Hunan Gold, and Zhongjin Gold also saw increases [1]

Market Overview - On the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.52%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.70% [1] - Precious metals, oil and gas, and computing power sectors showed significant gains [1] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals concept saw a rapid increase, with notable stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology rising over 13% and Hunan Silver approaching the daily limit [6] - Other companies in the sector, including Sichuan Gold, Hunan Gold, and Zhaojin Mining, also experienced upward movement [6] - Spot gold prices reached $5,200 per ounce, marking a nearly 2% increase, the first time since January 30 [6] - The main contract for silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 13%, reaching 22,366 yuan per kilogram [6] Key Stocks Performance - Xiaocheng Technology: 64.19, up 12.46%, market cap 14.999 billion [4] - Hunan Silver: 15.05, up 10.01%, market cap 34.989 billion [4] - Sichuan Gold: 49.10, up 6.65%, market cap 14.163 billion [4] - Hunan Gold: 34.52, up 6.22%, market cap 53.938 billion [4] - Zhaojin Mining: 20.39, up 6.14%, market cap 18.936 billion [4] - Other notable stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold and Western Gold, with respective increases of 5.50% and 5.37% [4]