Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.51% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1% [2] - The paper discusses the significant rebound in the real estate sector, with notable increases in stock prices for several property companies, attributed to a more lenient regulatory environment [3] - The consumer sector also showed positive movements, particularly in the sports and beverage segments, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards traditional sectors amid tech stock volatility [4] Company Overview - The specific company under review, Guo'en Technology (2768.HK), specializes in chemical new materials and gelatin, with a strong focus on organic polymer modified materials and organic polymer composite materials [7] - The company is projected to be the second-largest player in China's organic polymer modified materials market by sales revenue in 2024, holding a market share of 2.5% [7] - Revenue growth is expected to be steady, with total revenues forecasted at approximately RMB 134.1 billion, RMB 174.4 billion, and RMB 191.9 billion for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [7] Industry Status and Outlook - The global market for organic polymer modified materials and organic polymer composite materials is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% from 2025 to 2029, with China's growth rate projected at 14.1% [8] - The largest application for these materials is in the home appliance sector, accounting for 38.2% of usage, followed by the automotive industry at 17.9% [8] Advantages and Opportunities - The company benefits from a vertically integrated model that strengthens its market position in the organic polymer modified materials sector [9] - Strategic expansion into the health sector is part of a dual growth engine strategy, enhancing the company's growth potential [9] - The company has established long-term partnerships with leading enterprises, supported by a strong reputation and innovative capabilities [9] Fundraising Purpose - Approximately 50% of the funds raised (around HKD 528.5 million) will be allocated to establishing a new production base in Thailand to expand capacity [11] - About 35% (around HKD 370.5 million) will be used to enhance the production capacity of the existing facility in Yixing, China [11] - The remaining funds will support operational expenses and general corporate purposes [11] Investment Recommendations - The company ranks second in the organic polymer modified materials sector in China and is the largest producer of polystyrene by capacity [13] - The projected growth in net profit for the first ten months of 2025 is 40% year-on-year, indicating strong financial performance [13] - Despite competitive pressures and potential fluctuations in raw material prices, the company presents a compelling investment opportunity with a significant discount in its valuation compared to its A-share counterpart [13]

业绩再超预期，浆纸一体化驱动价值重构 玖龙纸业(2689) [Table_Industry] 林纸产品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 7.46 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 玖龙纸业公司更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 玖龙业绩再超预期，FY26H1 预计盈利 19.5-20.5 亿元，浆纸一体化驱动公司价值重 构 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万元人民币) | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (02689), with an expected EPS of 0.85/0.94/1.03 CNY for FY2026-2028, and a target price of 23.1 HKD based on a 25x PE for FY2026 [1] - For FY26H1, Nine Dragons Paper is expected to report a profit of 19.5-20.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 315.2%-336.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.3%-58.0%, driven by increased sales volume and prices, along with a decrease in raw material costs [1] Group 2 - Incremental profit contributions are primarily from the integrated pulp and paper production capacity at the Hubei and Beihai bases, with new capacities coming online in FY25H1 and FY25H2 [2] - For FY26H2, the outlook suggests that hardwood pulp prices are expected to rise further and remain high, while cultural and white card paper prices are at historical lows, indicating potential for price recovery and continued profit release from integrated pulp and paper production [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689), with projected EPS for FY2026-2028 at 0.85, 0.94, and 1.03 CNY, respectively, and a target price of 23.1 HKD based on a 25x PE for FY2026 [1] - For FY26H1, the company is expected to report a profit of 19.5-20.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 315.2%-336.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.3%-58.0%, driven by increased sales volume and prices, along with reduced raw material costs [1] - The main profit contribution is expected to come from pulp, with significant growth attributed to the increase in product sales and pricing [1] Group 2 - Incremental profit contributions are primarily from the integrated pulp and paper production capacity at the Hubei and Beihai bases, with new capacities coming online in FY25H1 and FY25H2 [2] - The Beihai base has 1.1 million tons of chemical pulp and 600,000 tons of mechanical pulp expected to be operational, while Hubei will add 650,000 tons of chemical pulp and 700,000 tons of mechanical pulp, along with additional paper products [2] Group 3 - For FY26H2, the outlook suggests that hardwood pulp prices are likely to rise further and maintain high levels, while cultural and white card paper prices are at historical lows, indicating potential for price recovery [3] - The profitability of the integrated pulp and paper production capacity is highlighted as a key outperforming factor, with additional capacity expected to come online in FY26H2 and FY27, alongside improvements in corrugated paper profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Insights - The company has exceeded performance expectations, with FY26H1 projected earnings between 1.95 billion to 2.05 billion RMB, driven by the integration of pulp and paper operations [2][9] - The integration of pulp and paper production is expected to significantly enhance profitability, with major contributions from new capacities in Hubei and Beihai [9] - The company anticipates further price increases in short-fiber pulp and improvements in profitability for cultural and white card paper, which are currently at historical low levels [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - FY2024A: 59.50 billion RMB - FY2025A: 63.24 billion RMB - FY2026E: 69.30 billion RMB - FY2027E: 76.29 billion RMB - FY2028E: 84.02 billion RMB - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 4.9%, 6.3%, 9.6%, 10.1%, and 10.1% respectively [3][10] - Net profit projections are as follows: - FY2024A: 750.68 million RMB - FY2025A: 1.77 billion RMB - FY2026E: 4.00 billion RMB - FY2027E: 4.40 billion RMB - FY2028E: 4.84 billion RMB - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 131.5%, 135.4%, 126.6%, 9.8%, and 10.2% respectively [3][10] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 20.31 in FY2024A to 7.23 in FY2028E, indicating increasing valuation attractiveness [3][10] Market Data - The current stock price is 7.46 HKD, with a market capitalization of 35.00 billion HKD and a 52-week price range of 2.82 to 7.46 HKD [6][10]

出席嘉宾 安徽林平循环发展股份有限公司董事会秘书王善彬先生 安徽林平循环发展股份有限公司董事、财务总监李培凯先生 国联民生证券承销保荐有限公司保荐代表人李凯先生 ——安徽林平循环发展股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在主板上市网上投资者交流会精彩回放 安徽林平循环发展股份有限公司董事长、总经理李建设先生 国联民生证券承销保荐有限公司保荐代表人黄庆先生 安徽林平循环发展股份有限公司 董事长、总经理李建设先生 尊敬的各位投资者和各位网友： 大家好！ 欢迎大家参加安徽林平循环发展股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在上交所主板上市的网上路演。首 先，我谨代表林平发展全体董事会、管理层及全体员工，向长期给予公司关注和支持的广大投资者朋 友，表示衷心的感谢以及热烈的欢迎！我们希望通过此次网上投资者交流活动，充分解答各位投资者关 切的问题，帮助大家更加客观、全面地了解林平发展。 自2002年在安徽萧县创立以来，林平发展始终锚定"绿色制造+循环经济"的双轮驱动战略，深耕循环造 纸领域。我们以废纸回收再利用为起点，构建资源高效循环的运营体系，持续推进清洁化生产与节能降 耗。这不仅让我们的产品获得了市场认可，更使公司的"绿色工厂"实践与 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 玖龙纸业(2689.HK) 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 玖龙纸业：盈利改善超预期，浆纸协同优势放 大 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 投资评级 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_OtherReport] [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] FY26H1 业绩预告（截至 25 年 12 月 31 日的六个月）。公 司预计此期间盈利为 21.5-22.5 亿元（同比+21 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks continued to lead, closing up 0.51% with a trading volume of 332 billion [1] - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the federal funds rate target range remains at 3.5% to 3.75%, with a voting result of 10 to 2 against a rate cut [1] - Oil prices are rising due to ongoing tensions in Iran, with WTI crude touching $65 per barrel, up 2.83%, marking a new high since September 2025 [1] Gold Market - International gold prices reached a historical high, with London gold nearing $5,600, leading to a rise in domestic gold jewelry prices to around 1,700 yuan per gram [2] - Despite the price increase, gold retail stocks did not see a corresponding rise, with concerns about potential profit-taking if prices decline [2] Commodities and Metals - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange approached $14,000 per ton, a historical high, benefiting companies like Jiangxi Copper, which rose over 6% [3] - Nickel resources are rebounding, with Zhongwei New Materials securing significant nickel ore supply and establishing a nickel raw material industrial base in Indonesia [3] Real Estate Sector - The Chinese government is encouraging local policies to digest existing real estate stock, leading to a surge in real estate stocks, with companies like Agile Group rising nearly 41% [4] - Real estate brokerage firms also saw gains, with Beike rising over 7% [4] Consumer Goods - The liquor market is experiencing price increases, with Moutai's original box price rising to 1,610 yuan per bottle [4] - There are rumors of Kweichow Moutai participating in SpaceX's Series A financing, which the company denied, yet it contributed to a surge in liquor stocks [5] Financial Performance - Dongfang Zhenxuan reported a 5.7% increase in total revenue to 2.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 239 million yuan, up 14.5% [6] - Nine Dragons Paper expects a profit of 2.15 billion to 2.25 billion yuan for the six months ending December 31, 2025, a significant increase from 680 million yuan the previous year [6] Automotive Sector - The State Council released a plan to accelerate the development of service consumption in the automotive sector, which is expected to benefit automotive dealers like Meidong Automotive and Zhongsheng Holdings [7] Individual Stock Highlights - Sunny Optical Technology expects a net profit of approximately 4.589 billion to 4.723 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 70% to 75% [8] - The growth is attributed to high-end smartphone camera specifications and improved product mix, despite a recent decline in stock price due to fluctuations in smartphone demand [8]

[Table_StockAndRank] 玖龙纸业(2689.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 李晨 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525060001 邮箱：lichen1@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_Title] 玖龙纸业：盈利改善超预期，浆纸协同优势放 大 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] FY26H1 业绩预告（截至 25 年 12 月 31 日的六个月）。公 司预计此期间盈利为 21.5-22.5 亿元（同比+216.0%~230.7%），剔除永续 资本证券持有人应占盈利 2.01 亿元后，归母净利润为 19.5-20.5 亿元（同 比 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market maintained an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index briefly surpassing the 28,000-point mark, reaching a high of 28,056.10 points [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,968.09 points, up 141.18 points, representing a gain of 0.51% [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector saw significant gains, with Sunac China (HK01918) rising over 27%, Shimao Group (HK00813), Kaisa Group (HK01638), and R&F Properties (HK02777) increasing over 20%, and Country Garden (HK02007) up over 16% [3] - Several other property stocks, including Agile Group (HK03383) and Vanke Enterprises (HK02202), also experienced notable increases, with Vanke up over 8% [3] Technology Sector - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,841.10 points, down 59.06 points, reflecting a decline of 1% [4] Regulatory Environment - Some property companies were informed that they are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly to regulatory authorities. However, certain distressed firms must still report financial metrics like asset-liability ratios to local task forces [6] - Several leading property firms have made substantial progress in debt restructuring since the beginning of the year [6] Alcohol Sector - Hong Kong's liquor stocks, particularly Zhenjiu Lidu (HK06979), surged over 12%, influenced by significant gains in A-share liquor stocks [8] - In the A-share market, major liquor companies such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao saw their stocks hit the daily limit, with Kweichow Moutai rising over 8% [9] Capital Flows - There was a notable inflow of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases exceeding 4.3 billion HKD by the end of the trading day [9] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities indicated that technology and cyclical "consumables" are expected to lead the recovery of the Hong Kong stock market, supported by easing external pressures and stable domestic macro data [10] - The report from China Merchants International highlighted that the Hong Kong market is currently in an earnings vacuum, with high growth expectations for new economy sectors boosting market confidence [10] - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as beneficial for Hong Kong stocks, with domestic policies focusing on technological innovation and domestic demand expansion [10]