Group 1 - A total of 1123 A-share listed companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 602 companies expecting profits and 521 companies anticipating losses [1][2] - Among the companies predicting profits, Zijin Mining leads with a forecasted net profit of 52 billion yuan, followed by Luoyang Molybdenum with 20.8 billion yuan [2][3] - The automotive sector, represented by SAIC Motor, is expected to see a significant profit increase of 438%-558%, the highest growth rate among the top ten profit forecast companies [2][3] Group 2 - The real estate sector dominates the list of companies forecasting significant losses, with China Fortune Land Development expected to lose between 16 billion and 24 billion yuan [3][4] - Other sectors facing losses include the photovoltaic industry, with Tongwei Co., TCL Zhonghuan, and Trina Solar among the top ten companies predicting losses [4][5] - JinkoSolar is projected to experience the largest decline in net profit, with a decrease of 6063.96%-7074.8% due to price fluctuations in the global photovoltaic industry [9][10] Group 3 - Companies like *ST Weir and Tonghua Dongbao are expected to see substantial profit growth, with *ST Weir forecasting a net profit increase of 8303.8%-9599.14% [6][8] - Approximately 260 companies are expected to have a net profit growth rate exceeding 100%, accounting for about one-fifth of the companies that have released forecasts [7][8] - The performance of companies in the photovoltaic sector is under pressure due to market conditions, impacting their profitability despite efforts to innovate and upgrade technology [9][10]

27 January 2026 | 6:56AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 4 Wrap - Transactions improved across markets but leading indicators showed slowing signs Key highlights for the week: Central level: the MNR and MOHURD jointly released new measures to further support urban renewal with enhanced execution flexibility. Key points include: 1) more flexible land transition policies, whereby the original 5-year fixed transition period, during which land use and planning conditions could not be altered ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights three major trends expected in 2026: 1) The adjustment in the real estate market is likely nearing its end, with current price adjustments being relatively sufficient compared to historical averages [6] 2) There are structural opportunities for "good housing" as the market enters a phase of differentiation, with a focus on high-quality residential developments [6] 3) The recovery of the Hong Kong property market is anticipated to continue, driven by multiple favorable factors [6] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.8%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.1% during the week, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) saw a rise of 5.2% [6][9] - In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers included *ST Rongkong (+15.8%) and Shunfa Hengneng (+15.7%), while the bottom five included Chengjian Development (-6.0%) and Zhongzhou Holdings (-2.8%) [6][9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of January 17-23, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 137 million square meters, a decrease of 6.0% from the previous week and a year-on-year decline of 41.0% [14] - Cumulatively, from January 1-23, new housing transactions reached 437 million square meters, reflecting a 37.4% decrease month-on-month and a 41.4% decrease year-on-year [18] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - During the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities amounted to 224 million square meters, an increase of 3.6% from the previous week and a year-on-year increase of 11.9% [32] - For January 1-23, second-hand housing transactions totaled 654 million square meters, showing a 0.9% decrease month-on-month and a 10.9% decrease year-on-year [38] Industry News - The report notes that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market and supporting reasonable financing needs of real estate companies [50] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new housing starts down 20.4% and completed projects down 18.1% [50] - The report also mentions that the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans in Shenzhen and 20 cities in Guangdong is set at no less than 30% [50] Company Announcements - Poly Developments reported a revenue of 308.3 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, down 79.5% [53] - China Resources Land plans to issue a bond of 2 billion yuan with a term of 3 years at an interest rate of 1.99% [53]

（来源：东方资色） 1月23日，金地集团发布2025年度业绩预告显示，预计2025年度净亏损111亿-135亿元；扣除非经常性损益的净亏损100亿-124亿元。 业绩预亏的主要原因，金地集团在公告中表示，公司近年销售规模下降，本年可结转面积较上年减少，营业收入较上年下滑。此外，公司根据市场情况动 态调整经营及销售策略，加大去化力度，使得部分项目存货可变现净值低于成本，基于谨慎性原则计提了存货跌价准备和信用损失准备。 新年第一天，金地集团还发布了一则人事变动公告。1月1日，公司发布公告称，董事会于近日收到董事季彤的书面辞职申请。季彤因工作变动的原因申请 辞去第十届董事会董事、副董事长、董事会战略委员会委员、审计委员会委员及薪酬与考核委员会委员等职务，辞职后不再担任公司任何职务。 （来源：东方资色） 1月23日，金地集团发布2025年度业绩预告显示，预计2025年度净亏损111亿-135亿元；扣除非经常性损益的净亏损100亿-124亿元。 业绩预亏的主要原因，金地集团在公告中表示，公司近年销售规模下降，本年可结转面积较上年减少，营业收入较上年下滑。此外，公司根据市场情况动 态调整经营及销售策略，加大去化力度，使得 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, focus on provinces with large maturity scales of industrial bonds, such as Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin, and avoid entities with industry downturns, weakened profitability, and financing channels, or those with non - bond debt risks [2]. - The broad private real estate developers still face challenges, and other industries have a low probability of concentrated risks, but entities with weak competitiveness, significant profit decline, cash - flow pressure, and concentrated debt maturities should be focused on [2]. - For convertible bonds, weak - quality entities with low - priced underlying stocks and high conversion premiums may face difficulties in exiting through conversion, and potential losses should be watched out for [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Bond Market Situation - As of January 6, 2026, the national credit bond balance was 36.18 trillion yuan, with urban investment bonds at 17.73 trillion yuan (49.00%) and industrial bonds at 18.45 trillion yuan (51.00%, down from 54.57% last year) [5]. - Beijing has the largest bond balance, followed by Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term bond maturity ratio at 81.09%, followed by Heilongjiang at 40.39% [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bonds - Since 2023, with a series of policies and measures, the debt pressure of urban investment platforms has been relieved, the issuance cost and credit spread of urban investment bonds have decreased, the financing cost is generally below 3%, and the debt term has been significantly extended [10]. 3. Industrial Bonds Provincial - level Analysis - Excluding urban investment bonds, Beijing has the largest industrial bond scale at over 7 trillion yuan, mainly central - enterprise bonds. Inner Mongolia has the highest short - term industrial bond maturity ratio at 82.64%, followed by Tibet, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, and Jilin [11]. - Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin have a bond issuance coverage ratio of less than 1 for the next - year's maturity scale, indicating weak refinancing ability [14]. Industry - level Analysis - In 2025, default industries included 12 sectors such as automobile services and real estate development. The industrial holding and power industries have the largest bond balances, over 2 trillion yuan each [15]. - The paper - making, automobile services, medical devices, medical services, and publishing media industries have a short - term debt ratio of over 50%, with poor debt term structures [15]. - Industries with large short - term debt repayment pressures include rail transit, packaging, heating, furniture and home appliances, textiles, automobile services, and information technology [15]. 4. Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the default rate of real estate development entities remained high, with Vanke and Zhengxinglong defaulting. As of January 6, 2026, the real estate development enterprise bond balance was 11,528.76 billion yuan, mainly held by local and central state - owned enterprises [18]. - The short - term bond maturity pressure of public, Sino - foreign joint - venture, and private enterprises is over 40%. The broad private enterprises still face pressure, with an issuance amount of only 234.38 billion yuan in the past year, 76.93% of the next - year's maturity amount [20]. - In 2026, private real estate enterprises to focus on are Longfor and Yida Development [23]. 5. Loss - making Industrial Entities - Large - loss entities (losses over 10 billion yuan in 2024 and still in losses in the first three quarters of 2025) are mainly in the real estate development industry, including state - owned enterprises such as Overseas Chinese Town Group and financial street - related companies, as well as steel giant Ansteel Group [24]. - Entities with losses between 5 and 10 billion yuan involve industries such as electrical equipment, chemical, steel, and airport [26]. 6. ABS Market - From 2023 - 2025, the default rate of CSRC - regulated ABS was 1.10%, 0.77%, and 0.88% respectively. As of January 6, 2026, the ABS balance was 25,021.96 billion yuan, with a one - year maturity amount of 3,541.59 billion yuan (14.15%). The 2025 issuance amount covered the next - year's maturity amount 3.97 times, with good continuation [32]. 7. Convertible Bond Market - Since 2024, the convertible bond repayment risk has increased. As of January 6, 2026, the convertible bond balance was 5553.51 billion yuan, a 22.89% year - on - year decrease. The broad private enterprises accounted for 64.73%, with a relatively large proportion [33]. - Entities such as Anhui Honglu Steel Structure, Shenzhen Huayang International Engineering Design, and Shanghai Kehua Bio - Engineering face large convertible bond repayment pressures, but the conversion mechanism can reduce credit risks to some extent [35]. - Entities such as Dongfang Fashion Driving School, Hainan Pulili Pharmaceutical, and Jiangsu Fumiao Technology, although not facing immediate repayment pressures, have negative information such as business fluctuations, financial fraud, and equity freezes, and their dynamic changes should be continuously monitored [36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a positive shift in policies aimed at improving and stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for further policy changes that could create investment opportunities in the sector [3][41] - The report tracks the transaction volume of new and second-hand homes across 15 cities, noting a week-on-week increase in transaction area but a year-on-year decline [4] - The report emphasizes the government's commitment to supporting urban renewal initiatives and promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total transaction area for new and second-hand homes in 15 cities reached 3.081 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 6.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% [4] - Cumulative transaction area for January shows a month-on-month decline of 11.6% and a year-on-year decline of 22.7% [4] Policy Developments - On January 20, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued measures to further support urban renewal actions [4] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development indicated a focus on high-quality development in the real estate sector, aiming to stabilize the market and enhance housing supply [4] Company Announcements - Poly Development expects a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 79.49% year-on-year [4] - China State Construction Development anticipates a net loss of between 284 million and 423 million yuan for 2025 [4] - Vanke A has withdrawn applications for three real estate investment trust fund projects [4]

下面一张图看清楚 来源：市场资讯 统计了一下，今年上海将有119个新盘解禁，那些曾需要高分摇号，"挤破头"才能入围的网红楼盘，如今到底是赚是赔？ （来源：楼市经典） 2026年，上海第一批五年限售新房迎来解禁。 | 板块 | 项目名称 | 开盘时间 | 备案均价 | 套数 | 认购人数 | 认购率 | 入围分 | 同小区/周边同档 | मधी सि | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (2021年) | (元/m2) | | | | | 次次新 | (元/m2) | | | | 万科天空之城五期 | 12月17日 | 28200 | 152 | 488 | 308. 55% | 82. 88 | 万科天空之城二期 | 63834 | 10 | | | 蟠龙天地云庭 | 10月2日 | 61500 | 741 | 3082 | 416. 33% | 81. 23 | 蟠龙天地一期 | 73852 | 10 | | | 虹桥悦澜 | 6月2日 | 61300 | 161 | 394 | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing a tight balance in liquidity, with various indicators showing mixed trends in both domestic and international debt markets, alongside significant movements in commodity prices. Group 1: Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that by 2025, the "Technology Board" in the bond market is expected to issue a total of 1.8 trillion yuan in technology innovation bonds [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, effective from March 1, aimed at addressing issues like "style drift" and enhancing the value investment attributes of public funds [2] Group 2: International News - In January, the S&P Global PMI report indicated that U.S. business activity continues to grow, with the manufacturing PMI at 51.9, slightly below expectations, and the services PMI at 52.5, also below forecast [4] - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations, while raising its medium- to long-term inflation forecasts, indicating a more optimistic view on price pressures [5] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI crude rising by 2.88% to $61.07 per barrel, and natural gas prices surged over 10% [6] Group 4: Financial Market Operations - On January 23, the PBOC conducted a 125 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 38.3 billion yuan for the day [7] - The liquidity in the market remains tight, with the DR001 and DR007 rates slightly declining to 1.398% and 1.494%, respectively [8] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed slight strength, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 1.00 basis points to 1.8300% [9] - In the secondary market, several corporate bonds saw significant price movements, with some bonds from Vanke rising over 10% [11] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the equity market's upward trend, with major indices rising by approximately 1.28% to 1.32%, and a total trading volume of 104.1 billion yuan [19] - Notable individual convertible bonds saw substantial increases, with some rising over 19% [19] Group 7: Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, with the 10-year yield down by 2 basis points to 4.24% [21] - In the European bond market, the 10-year yields showed mixed trends, with Germany's yield rising by 2 basis points to 2.90% while France's yield fell by 2 basis points [24]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [8] Core Insights - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for increased policy support [5] - In major cities, the transaction volume for new homes has seen a significant decline compared to second-hand homes, indicating weaker demand [4] - The market anticipates that other first-tier cities will follow Beijing's lead in optimizing purchase restrictions after observing declining transaction data [5] Summary by Sections Core Cities - Beijing: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 558 units (up 16.3% year-on-year), while new home transactions averaged 80 units (down 45% year-on-year) [2] - Shanghai: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 609 units (up 10% year-on-year), with new home transactions remaining flat [2] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home daily transactions averaged 201 units (up 68% year-on-year), while new home transactions dropped 57% [3] National Key Cities - New home transaction volume in 30 major cities decreased by 38% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions increased by 9.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [5] - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in leading intermediary firms as the proportion of second-hand home transactions continues to rise, citing companies like I Love My Home [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].