Report Industry Investment Rating - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [9] Core View - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and contract price trends. Pay attention to the actual implementation of price increase letters in November and December, and the price adjustment of 10 - month contracts. The 12 - month contract focuses on the rhythm of price increase, and the 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference [1][7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 61,878 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 38,960 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1429.20, 1119.90, 1281.20, 1410.80, 1100.90, and 1651.10 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - Different shipping alliances have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's 43 - week quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was 1100/1840, and the 44 - week quote was 1194/2010; HPL's price in the second half of October was 1185/1935, and the price in the first half of November was 1535/2535, with a quote of 1735/2835 for the second - half - month shipping schedule in November. Many shipping companies have issued price increase letters [1] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December 2025, the average weekly capacity from China to European base ports showed different trends. In October, the average weekly capacity in the remaining three weeks was 276,100 TEU. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity was 302,800 TEU, and in December, it was 287,700 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3] 4. Supply Chain - There are geopolitical factors affecting the supply chain. For example, Israeli officials denied the start of the second - stage negotiations on the Gaza cease - fire, and the Houthi armed forces confirmed the death of their armed forces chief of staff. Also, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., and it is not yet known whether it will affect HMM's operations [3][4] 5. Demand and European Economy - The report does not provide direct information on demand and the European economy, but the shipping market is closely related to European economic conditions. The shipping companies' price adjustment strategies are related to the expected demand and economic situation in the future, such as preparing for the next - year long - term contract negotiations [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with the EC2512 contract closing at 1651.1 points on October 16, down 3.37% from the previous day. Spot freight rates have shown a mixed trend, with the latest SCFI European line up 10% week - on - week, ending a 9 - week decline, while the SCFIS European line was down 1.4% week - on - week, and the decline has slowed. Shipowners have started to announce rate increases for November, and the market is closely watching the implementation of these rate hikes. The demand is seasonally declining but is expected to improve from November to December, and the supply side shows some changes in shipping capacity, especially in December. There are also risks such as the Israel - Palestine situation and potential tariff negotiations between China and the US [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On October 16, EC2512 closed at 1651.1 points, down 3.37% from the previous day. The latest SCFI European line on October 10 was reported at $1068/TEU, up 10% week - on - week, ending a 9 - week decline, and the SCFIS European line on Monday was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% week - on - week, with the decline in spot freight rates slowing. Shipowners such as MSK, MSC, CMA, and HPL have announced rate increases for November, with targets ranging from $1500 - $2700/FEU. Port fees have started to be levied due to China - US ship sanctions, and some ships are taking measures to avoid them [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the second half of October, some shipowners have lowered their rates, while major shipowners have issued rate increase notices for November, mostly around $2500 - $2700/FEU. The market is divided, with OA having better cargo collection and PA still facing pressure. The freight rate center of shipowners in the second half of October is expected to be higher than in the first half. The demand is seasonally declining but is expected to improve from November to December, and the shipping capacity from October to November changes little, with some ships being delayed and shipowners changing vessels. In December, the PA alliance will add three suspended ships and one new ship, and MSC will add one TBN. The Israel - Palestine negotiation is progressing, and there is a possibility of tariff negotiations between China and the US [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, the remaining long positions in EC2512 can be held, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted if the near - month contract EC2512 pulls back. For the arbitrage strategy, the 2 - 4 positive spread can continue to be held [6][7]. Industry News - Trump said that Modi assured him that India would not buy oil from Russia, but it would take a process. Trump threatened to impose trade penalties such as tariffs on Spain due to its refusal to increase defense spending to the NATO standard, and the EU responded that it would take appropriate measures [7]. - Regarding the Red Sea situation, Trump threatened to resume Israeli actions if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement. The Israeli government hopes that Hamas will fulfill its obligations and return all hostages, and the Israeli Defense Minister instructed the military to formulate a plan to "defeat Hamas" if the Gaza war resumes [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to be oscillating strongly [9] - Arbitrage: None [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of October, freight rates were slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase notices for the second half of November will be launched [1] - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer. Focus on the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. For the December contract, as it is far from delivery, trading focuses on the rhythm. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [5][6][7] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 12, 2025, 210 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.704 million TEU [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of October 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures was 64,481.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 59,281.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1463.40, 1142.00, 1306.60, 1450.20, 1120.60, and 1708.60 respectively [7] II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping alliances show different price trends and price increase notices. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased from week 43 to week 44. HPL also issued price increase notices. Many other alliances like MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance also have price adjustments and price increase notices [1][2] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining three weeks of October was 276,100 TEU. The monthly average weekly capacity in November was 302,800 TEU, and in December was 287,700 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3] IV. Supply Chain - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Since HMM and Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. have the same top - level controlling party, whether HMM's operations will be affected is unknown [4] V. Demand and European Economy - No specific content about demand and European economy is provided in the text other than the general background information related to the shipping market, such as the actions of shipping companies to adjust supply to maintain freight rates for the next - year long - term agreement negotiations [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The 9 - 10 month is the traditional off - season, with limited capacity control and supply pressure remaining. The spot freight rate is currently falling. However, shipping companies are starting to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season, and there is a high probability of a bottom - out and rebound trend. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas impacts the market, but its substantial progress and impact on Red Sea re - navigation are uncertain. There are opportunities for an oversold rebound due to China's countermeasures against the US in the maritime sector [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Current situation: 9 - 10 months are the traditional off - season, with supply pressure due to limited capacity control. Spot freight rates are falling. Shipping companies are raising prices for the second half of October. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas impacts the market, and there is uncertainty about Red Sea re - navigation. There are opportunities for an oversold rebound [8] 2. Industry News - Chinese export container transportation market: Stable after the National Day holiday, with rebound in ocean - going route freight rates driving up the composite index. China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, showing improved manufacturing activity [9] - European routes: Eurozone's September composite PMI rose to 51.2, with service PMI at a 9 - month high. On October 10, Shanghai - to - Europe basic port freight rate increased by 10.0% [9] - Mediterranean routes: Market moved in sync with European routes, with rising spot booking prices. On October 10, Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port freight rate increased by 4.9% [9] - North American routes: US September ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, below the boom - bust line. The US imposed additional fees on Chinese ships, and China countered. On October 10, Shanghai - to - US West and East basic port freight rates rose by 0.5% and 2.8% respectively [10] - Israel - Hamas cease - fire: Hamas announced a cease - fire agreement, and both sides will release detainees. Israel allows Turkish aid to enter Gaza. The US plans to send up to 200 soldiers to assist in Gaza [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on October 13 was 1031.8, down 1.4% from October 6 [12] - SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) on October 13 was 862.48, down 1.6% from October 6 [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - Data on container shipping futures for European routes are presented in Table 1, including contract information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, and trading volume [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the October contract, the valuation is becoming clearer. Attention should be paid to the actual freight - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. The final delivery and settlement price is expected to be around 1130 - 1140 [5][6]. - For the December contract, since it is far from delivery, trading focuses on the rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The trading rhythm involves trading price - increase expectations and actual implementation of price - increase letters [6]. - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [7]. - The strategy suggests going short on the October contract and expecting the December contract to be oscillating upward. There is no arbitrage strategy at present [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of October 14, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 66,064.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 69,843.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1464.40, 1150.00, 1318.80, 1450.00, 1136.20, and 1674.10 respectively [7]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Different shipping companies have different price quotes and price - increase letters. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK43 quote is 1095/1830, and WEEK44 is 1080/1800. HPL plans to increase the price to 1200/2000 after October 15 and has different price quotes for different periods in November [1]. - Some shipping companies have adjusted their prices in the second half of October. For example, OOCL in the OA alliance lowered its price to 1850 US dollars/FEU, YML in the PA alliance to 1700 US dollars/FEU, and HPL in the Gemini alliance to 1935 US dollars/FEU [5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - From the remaining three weeks of October to December, the average weekly capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In October, the average weekly capacity is 276,100 TEU, in November it is 302,800 TEU, and in December it is 287,700 TEU. There are 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3]. - As of October 12, 2025, 210 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.704 million TEU. Among them, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 963,800 TEU, and 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 218,840 TEU [8]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has imposed sanctions on Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. and its 5 US - related subsidiaries. Since HMM and Hanwha Ocean have the same top - level controlling party, whether HMM's operations will be affected is unknown [4]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided in the given text about this part, only some related figure references are given.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations, the European Container Freight Index (EC) shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot freight rate is favorable, but political and economic factors are unfavorable. The supply of shipping capacity and demand are neutral. In the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of cargo owners". The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased and verified, with the second quarter of next year as the first substantial observation point [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Spot Freight Rate**: Bullish. This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500, and the overall quotation range in late October was 2000 - 2200 (MSK's price increase letter indicates 2500 in early November) [3] - **Political and Economic**: Bearish. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods from November 1. China announced new restrictions on rare - earth exports. The US adjusted the 232 - clause tariff on some products. Israel and Hamas reached a peace agreement, but there are still uncertainties [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The average weekly shipping capacity deployment in September was 305,000 TEU, 250,000 TEU in October, 280,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate declined rapidly, lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. The loading rate of GEMINI rebounded due to significant price cuts, while those of the other two alliances continued to decline [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and the 10 - 12 spread trading is in a long - short positive spread. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data on European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices, as well as Maersk's European line quotations [6][12] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on order volume, new - order volume, and order volume by loading capacity [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on future delivery volume, future delivery volume by quarter and season, and future delivery volume by loading capacity [24][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on ship - breaking price by loading capacity and new - shipbuilding price index and price by loading capacity [31] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on second - hand ship price index and second - hand ship price by loading capacity [37] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships**: There are data on existing shipping capacity, existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofitting ratios, average age, and average age of ship - breaking [46][49][53] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: There are data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, and the shipping capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [61][63][65][67][69] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers**: There are data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average age and duration of installation, and average speed [71][72][75] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on idle shipping capacity, idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle shipping capacity, and shipping capacity for desulfurization tower retrofitting [79][80]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market shows a pattern of strong near - term and weak long - term. The end - of - year peak season may not materialize as expected due to the double decline in supply and demand in October. The market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and rising bargaining power of shippers" before the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026. The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased, with the second quarter of next year being the first key observation point. The negotiation between Israel and Hamas has created theoretical possibilities for the resumption of Red Sea shipping, but the shipping industry still faces multiple challenges [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is at 1115, down 6.97% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1087, down 2.93%. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe all decreased, with declines ranging from 4.89% to 10.76% [5]. - **EC Contracts**: Prices of most EC contracts decreased, with EC2506 down 13.05% and EC2608 down 10.57%. However, EC2510 increased by 0.84%. The positions of some contracts changed, with EC2606 and EC2608 positions increasing, while EC2410 positions decreased [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 10 - 12 month - to - month spread is - 568.1, up 53.2 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 spread is 282.0, up 192.9; the 12 - 4 spread is 568.1, up 90.4 [5]. Market News - On October 5, 2025, OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The next meeting on December policies will be held on November 2 [5]. - On October 4, Trump said that Israel agreed to a preliminary withdrawal route in Gaza, and a cease - fire would take effect after Hamas' confirmation. A prisoner exchange will also be initiated [6]. - On October 1, the US federal government "shut down" for the first time in nearly 7 years due to the Senate's rejection of the appropriation bill [6]. - On October 4, the Kriskii refinery in Russia's Leningrad Oblast was attacked by drones and caught fire. The fire has been extinguished, and seven drones were destroyed [7]. - On October 1, US media reported that the Trump administration agreed to provide intelligence to Ukraine to support long - range attacks on Russian energy facilities [7]. - The Nikkei 225 index rose 4.8% to 47,944.76 points, and the Topix index rose 3.1%. The yen weakened significantly against the US dollar, breaking through the key level of 150 [7]. EC Market Analysis - **Spot Price**: In early October, GEMINI prices dropped to 1500, QA to 1500, RA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The overall quoted price range in late October is between 2000 - 2200, and there are rumors of continued price support [8]. - **Logic**: In late September, shipping companies cut prices to grab cargo, and freight rates dropped to $1300/FEU. In October, supply and demand both decreased, and the market is likely to return to the off - season. Shipping companies' price increase announcements may not be implemented, and key factors to monitor include price increase implementation, peak - season cargo volume, and shipping companies' attitude towards price support [9]. - **Strategy**: A long - short spread strategy between the 10 - month and 12 - month contracts is recommended [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cease - fire negotiation suppresses the market sentiment, but there is still an expectation of price increase during the long - term contract season for shipping companies. The market price of EC2512 rebounded in the afternoon. The freight rates of some shipping companies are expected to rise in the second half of October, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase. The demand for goods continues to decline seasonally, and the supply capacity has decreased compared with the previous period. The cease - fire negotiation and resumption of flights are expected to suppress the far - month contracts [6][7]. - For trading strategies, in terms of single - sided trading, the far - month contracts are more affected by the cease - fire in the Palestine - Israel conflict. The remaining long positions of EC2512 can be held, and if there is a significant correction in the near - month contract EC2512, one can consider buying on dips and operate flexibly. For arbitrage, the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage can be operated on dips in a rolling manner, and the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage should be continued to be held [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 9, 2025, for the container shipping index (European line) futures, different contracts showed different price changes. For example, EC2512 closed at 1688 points, down 2.53% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees. The month - spread structure of different contract combinations also had corresponding price differences and changes [4]. - **Spot Market**: On September 26, the SCFI European line was reported at 971 US dollars/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%. On October 6, the latest SCFIS European line was reported at 1046.5 points, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6%. Some shipping companies have successively adjusted and increased the freight rates for the second half of October. MSK released a price increase letter for November, targeting a price increase to 2500 US dollars/FEU, and CMA released a quote of 3600 US dollars/FEU for Shanghai - Le Havre in mid - November [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of demand, the volume of goods continues to decline seasonally, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm. In terms of supply, the average weekly capacity of Shanghai - 5 Nordic ports from September to November 2025 was 267,900/251,600/277,600 TEU respectively, and the average weekly capacity in December was 288,500 TEU, showing a decrease compared with the previous period. The long - term contract season price increase from November to December is about to start, and the US 301 port levy measure may be implemented on October 14. Attention should be paid to the subsequent ship allocation and empty - sailing plans during the long - term contract season [7]. - **Risk Factors**: The cease - fire negotiation in the Palestine - Israel conflict and the progress of resuming flights are expected to suppress the far - month contracts [7]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - sided Trading**: The far - month contracts are more affected by the cease - fire in the Palestine - Israel conflict. The remaining long positions of EC2512 can be held. If there is a significant correction in the near - month contract EC2512, one can consider buying on dips and operate flexibly [8]. - **Arbitrage**: The 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage can be operated on dips in a rolling manner, and the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage should be continued to be held [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Trade Policy**: The US new proposal may weaken the recent EU - US trade agreement. The EU plans to cut the duty - free steel import volume in half to 1.83 billion tons per year, and the steel imports exceeding this quota will face a 50% tariff. Trump announced that a 25% tariff will be imposed on all medium - and heavy - duty trucks entering the US from other countries starting from November 1 [10][11]. - **Economic Data**: The Sentix investor confidence index in the eurozone in October was - 5.4, better than the expected - 8.5 and the previous value of - 9.2. The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in September was 54.2, higher than the expected 53.9 and the previous value of 53.9; the final value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in September was 53.9, higher than the expected 53.6 and the previous value of 53.6 [11]. - **Shipping Industry News**: The negotiation between the Belgian government and the pilots' association has stagnated, and the pilots have launched a "work - to - rule" action since October 5. HMM has determined to place an order for a new batch of large - scale container ships with two Korean shipyards, with a total investment of more than 2.2 billion US dollars [11]. - **Red Sea Situation**: After Trump announced the first - stage peace plan between Israel and Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he would convene the cabinet to approve the agreement and bring back all the detained personnel [12][13]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including the SCFIS European line index and the SCFIS US West line index, the SCFI comprehensive index, and the container freight rates of Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, Shanghai - Europe, etc., as well as the basis of EC10 and EC12 contracts [15][17][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of October, and the actual implementation needs to be monitored. - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, with the settlement price depending on the actual price increase in the second half of October. - The December contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the driving force is relatively strong before the continuous price - increase expectations are falsified. - The strategy suggests going short on the October contract and expecting the December contract to be oscillating upwards [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping alliances and companies have various price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased in Week 42; HPL announced price hikes in the second half of October and November. Some companies like CMA also attempted to raise prices in the second half of October [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel attacked Sana'a, Yemen, which may impact the shipping market [3]. - **Capacity**: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 272,600 TEU, and in November it was 285,200 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. - **October Contracts**: The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline, and the final settlement price depends on the actual price increase in the second half of October [4]. - **December Contracts**: The trading of the December contract focuses on the rhythm. With Western holidays in the fourth quarter and shipping companies' preparations for long - term agreements, the freight rate is expected to be at a high level. However, the weak demand in the US line and potential ship transfers may put pressure on European line prices [5]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Go short on the October contract and expect the December contract to be oscillating upwards. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is recommended [8]. 3.3 Data on Contracts and Freight Rates - As of September 25, 2025, the total position of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 77,695 lots, and the daily trading volume was 70,242 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied, such as EC2602 at 1,696.20, EC2604 at 1,285.10, etc. - On September 19th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) was 1,052 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was 1,636 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2,557 US dollars/FEU. On September 15th, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1,254.92 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,193.64 points [6]. 3.4 Container Ship Delivery In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 62 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 935,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is relatively strong [1]. Core View of the Report - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) showed a relatively strong performance yesterday. Attention should be paid to the impact of shipping company price adjustment plans, capacity changes, and seasonal factors on different contracts. For the 2510 contract, there are potential upward risks; for the 2512 contract, it should not be over - estimated; and for the 2602 contract, the relative valuation is difficult to determine [1][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Conditions - EC2510 closed at 1,173.0 with a daily increase of 3.99%, trading volume of 38,888 and open interest of 35,526 with a decrease of 5,414. EC2512 closed at 1,783.1 with a daily increase of 6.21%, trading volume of 23,493 and open interest of 22,995 with an increase of 389. EC2602 closed at 1,696.2 with a daily increase of 7.85%, trading volume of 5,485 and open interest of 8,709 with an increase of 666 [1]. 2. Freight Index - The SCFIS European route index was 1,254.92, down 12.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,193.64, down 11.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,052/TEU, down 8.8% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $1,636/FEU, down 31.0% bi - weekly [1]. 3. Spot Freight Rates - Different shipping companies have different price adjustment plans. For example, Maersk's 42 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price is reported at $1,800/FEU, and HPL plans to increase prices in the second half of October and early November. Some shipping companies have announced price increases in mid - to late October, but the probability of the price increase actually happening is considered low [10]. 4. Capacity Situation - In October, the weekly average capacity was revised down to 265,000 TEU/week, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.5%. In November, the HMM Alliance announced an empty - sailing plan for the PA Alliance, and MSC will have 3 new ships launched. Excluding undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity in November is currently 310,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 16% [11]. 5. Contract Analysis - For the 2510 contract, if Maersk's price increase is implemented and other shipping companies follow suit, the 41 - 43 - week SCFIS average may be around 1,200 points, but considering shipping delays, it will likely be within 1,200 points. For the 2512 contract, due to factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026 and increasing capacity surplus, it should not be over - estimated. For the 2602 contract, the relative valuation between it and the 12 - contract is difficult to determine [12][13].