持续看多国防科技四大主线 20260302 摘要 个股定价以远期市场空间和卡位为核心，短期交易围绕事件催化和边际 变化。重点关注商用大飞机（含航空发动机与燃气轮机）、商业航天、 AI 产业链（AIDC 缺电背景下燃机链国产替代与出海）、军贸高端化破 局四大主线。 看好商业航天国产链今年出现"3D 共振"，股价催化核心在火箭链，源 于可回收火箭首飞与复飞。3 月中后旬至二季度预计出现大量首飞和复 飞催化，二季度至三季度国内商业航天火箭公司 IPO 也将构成催化。卫 星链业绩兑现确定性高于火箭链。 商业航天海外映射关注 SpaceX 产业链及机械、电芯环节标的。事件层 面，关注 SpaceX 启动 IPO 和 Starship V3 复飞等关键进展，这些是海 外映射的核心催化剂。 AIDC 缺电问题带动燃机关注度上升，机会体现在国内燃机供应链出海 和燃机总装环节的国产替代与出海机遇拓展。从原材料到整机存在全面 轮动与股价"泛化"机会。 Q&A 在军工板块的大势研判上，当前更看好哪些主线方向，对"内装赛道"的态度 是什么，个股定价框架如何把握？ 维持既有判断不变，相对更看好"军转民"和"军贸"两大方向；对"内装赛 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report highlights the potential for growth in China's military trade, driven by increasing global military expenditures and the transition from low-cost exports to high-end weaponry [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring three key signals regarding the U.S.-Iran situation, which could impact market dynamics significantly [11][12] - The report suggests that the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets [30][32] Group 2: Stock Market Focus - The report identifies specific stocks to watch in the context of military trade, including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and Aerospace Rainbow, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for military technology [21][20] - The report notes that the AI industry is exhibiting characteristics of a "rigid bubble," with companies like NVIDIA and GE Vernova being highlighted as key players [34][36] - The report suggests that the Taiwanese stock market is benefiting from strong export performance, particularly in the semiconductor sector, despite valuation pressures [34][36] Group 3: ETF Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SPDR® Gold ETF and STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF as strategic options to capitalize on the current market conditions [22][27] - The report provides performance metrics for these ETFs, indicating strong returns over various time frames, which supports their inclusion in investment strategies [25][28] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The report advises investors to consider reducing exposure to long-duration U.S. Treasuries as yields decline due to geopolitical tensions, suggesting a tactical approach to bond investments [30][32] - The report highlights the performance of various bond categories, including U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, indicating a mixed outlook based on current market conditions [5][30]

证券研究报告 航天军工 美以袭击伊朗使安全局势进一步恶化 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 01 日│中国内地 行业周报（第九周） 本周观点：美以袭击伊朗使安全局势进一步恶化 2 月 28 日，美国和以色列宣布，已从空中和海上对伊朗发起打击。新华社 2 月 28 日报道，据以色列媒体报道，在 2 月 28 日以色列和美国对伊朗的军事打击中，以方 率先发动袭击"清除威胁"，美军随即全力跟进，形成协同作战模式。美国总统特朗 普在社交媒体发布的视频中称，伊朗正在研制威胁美国的远程导弹，此次袭击要摧 毁伊朗的导弹工业，消灭伊朗海军，并确保伊朗不能获得核武器。 国际安全形势变化促使全球军费扩张。世界进入新的动荡变革期，近几年，全球进 入二战结束以来军事冲突最多的时期，俄乌、巴以、印巴、以伊等局部冲突不断， 国际安全局势的复杂性与不确定性显著上升，美国、欧盟、日本等国家和地区大幅 提升国防预算。我国军贸有望在"十五五"期间获得较快发展，市占率有望提升。 军贸市场相关上市公司包括：中航沈飞、中航成飞、国睿科技、航天南湖、航天彩 虹、中无人机、晶品特装等；具有防化产品业务的相关上市公司包括北化股份等。 中长期观点：关注新装备建 ...

行业周报 · 国防军工行业 美以联合袭击伊朗，地缘政治风险加剧 ——军工行业双周报 建议关注： 2026 年 3 月 1 日 国防军工 推荐 维持 分析师 李良 ：010-80927657 ：liliang_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515090001 胡浩淼 ：010-80927657 分析师登记编码：S0130521100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-2-27 资料来源：iFind,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 美以联合袭击伊朗，国际地缘政治风险加剧：2 月 28 日，美以联合袭击伊 朗。美方的代号为"史诗狂怒"行动，以色列则是"狮吼"行动。作为回击， 伊 朗同 日对美 国在中 东的 多处军 事基 地以及 以色列 国内 相关目 标发动 大规 模 报复行动。当天，沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林、约旦等国受到影响。 ⚫ 地缘风险升级将进一步强化军费稳增长预期。能战方能止战，地缘风险升 级将进一步强化军费稳增长预期，采购节奏与规模确定 ...

行业周报 · 国防军工行业 美以联合袭击伊朗，地缘政治风险加剧 ——军工行业双周报 建议关注： 2026 年 3 月 1 日 国防军工 推荐 维持 分析师 李良 ：010-80927657 ：liliang_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130515090001 相关研究 胡浩淼 ：010-80927657 ：huhaomiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130521100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-2-27 资料来源：iFind,中国银河证券研究院 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 美以联合袭击伊朗，国际地缘政治风险加剧：2 月 28 日，美以联合袭击伊 朗。美方的代号为"史诗狂怒"行动，以色列则是"狮吼"行动。作为回击， 伊 朗同 日对美 国在中 东的 多处军 事基 地以及 以色列 国内 相关目 标发动 大规 模 报复行动。当天，沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林、约旦等国受到影响。 ⚫ 地缘风险升级将进一步强化军费稳增长预期。能战方能止 ...

Xml [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 商业航天景气抬升，看好 AIDC 供电&服务器、军贸、大飞机等 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|国防军工 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-01 | | [分析师： Table_Author] 孟祥杰 | SAC 执证号：S0260521040002 | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BRF275 | | | | 010-59136693 | | | | mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 吴坤其 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 | | | | SFC CE No. BRT139 | | | | 010-59133689 | | | | wukunqi@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 邱净博 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120005 | | | | 010-59136685 | ...

美以对伊朗发动联合打击，伊朗已展开报复行动。全球安全形势有所变化，各国加 大军购力度或为必选项，以预警雷达、便携式导弹等防空预警、低成本高效费比装 备或将成为军贸市场爆款。建议关注我国军贸产业链上市公司。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 全球安全形势变化，关注军贸长逻辑 [Table_Industry] 军工 美以对伊朗发动联合打击事件点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周明頔(分析师) | 010-83939792 | zhoumingdi@gtht.com | S0880525080003 | | 杨天昊(分析师) | 010-83939791 | yangtianhao@gtht.com | S0880523080010 | 本报告导读： 军工《军工板块上涨，国际地缘冲突升级》 2026.03.01 军工《长征十号与梦舟飞船首次飞行试验取得成 功》2026.02.11 军工《国产军民机亮相新加坡航展，美将加速生 产五种关键 ...

（来源：淘金ETF） 1. 中国卫通（601698） 作为卫星通信运营国家队，手握稀缺轨位与频谱资源，是商业航天从上天到变现的关键枢纽。在低轨星 座加速组网、手机直连卫星需求爆发的背景下，卫星通信运营与数据服务成为核心增长极。凭借完整地 面站网络与高通量卫星资源，深度绑定国家星网工程，承接卫星互联网、应急通信、偏远地区覆盖等核 心订单，现金流稳定且可持续。随着商业航天规模化落地，卫星运维、数据分发、行业应用需求持续释 放，叠加政策对卫星互联网的战略支持，长期成长逻辑清晰。在空天地一体化建设浪潮中，凭借资源壁 垒与运营优势，成为商业航天运营端最具确定性的核心标的，业绩与估值具备向上空间。 2. 中国卫星（600118） 深耕卫星研制与应用全产业链，覆盖通信、导航、遥感等多领域卫星制造，是商业航天卫星制造端的核 心力量。随着低轨星座建设进入高峰期，微小卫星批量发射需求激增，卫星总装与核心部件配套迎来爆 发式增长。依托航天科技集团技术与资源优势，在卫星平台、载荷研发、总装测试等环节具备深厚积 累，深度参与国家重大航天工程与商业卫星项目。同时积极布局卫星应用服务，构建"制造+运营+数 据"闭环，拓展行业应用场景。在商 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The focus is on the aerospace and defense industry, particularly regarding the military activities of the United States in the context of potential conflict with Iran. Companies of interest include 航天南湖 (Aerospace Nanh Lake) and 国睿科技 (Guorui Technology) [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - The U.S. military has significantly increased its presence in the region, with two aircraft carrier strike groups, the Lincoln and Ford, positioned near Iran, along with approximately 20 surface and underwater vessels capable of carrying around 1,000 Tomahawk missiles [1]. - Air power has been bolstered with the deployment of 250-300 advanced fighter jets, including F-15, F-16, F-22, and F-35, as well as support aircraft such as B-52H, KC-135, KC-46, and E-3 AWACS [1]. - The current military buildup represents the largest concentration of U.S. military forces since the Iraq War, indicating a high level of expenditure that may not be sustainable over the long term [4]. - There is a strong indication that the U.S. may conduct military strikes against Iran on February 23 or 24, as suggested by reports citing former CIA personnel [4]. - The White House has confirmed that President Trump plans to visit China from March 31 to April 2, suggesting a desire to resolve the conflict before this diplomatic engagement [4]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The potential for investment opportunities in air defense systems is highlighted, suggesting that companies involved in this sector may benefit from the heightened military activity and geopolitical tensions [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the military industry [2]. Core Insights - The military trade and military-to-civilian transition are highlighted as dominant sectors for investment opportunities [4]. - The gas turbine industry is expected to experience long-term high prosperity driven by domestic and international demand [6]. - China's reusable rocket technology has made significant progress, potentially leading to a low-cost era in commercial aerospace infrastructure [32]. - The construction of low-altitude economic infrastructure is anticipated to accelerate due to a joint initiative from five government departments [64]. - There is a strong outlook for the expansion of Chinese high-tech equipment in overseas defense markets [4]. Summary by Sections Gas Turbine Industry - The rise in electricity consumption due to artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to increase by 160% by 2027, with data centers requiring 500 TWh annually [9]. - Global gas turbine installations are expected to reach nearly 60 GW in 2024, with major players like Mitsubishi Power, GE, and Siemens holding over 75% market share [19]. - Orders for GE and Siemens energy businesses are showing significant growth, reflecting strong downstream demand for gas turbines [20]. - Siemens Energy anticipates a substantial increase in profit margins for its gas business, projecting a rise to 14%-16% by 2026 and further to 18%-20% by 2028 [23]. Reusable Rocket Technology - China's Long March 10 rocket has successfully completed key tests in reusable rocket technology, marking a significant advancement [34]. - The domestic commercial aerospace sector is under pressure to meet ambitious satellite deployment goals, with over 15,000 satellites planned by 2030 [39]. - SpaceX's Starship is rapidly maturing, which may disrupt existing space launch capabilities and enhance Starlink's deployment speed [42]. Low-altitude Economic Infrastructure - A joint initiative from five departments aims to strengthen information communication capabilities to support low-altitude infrastructure development [66]. - The low-altitude economy is expected to mirror the rapid growth seen in the electric vehicle charging infrastructure, with significant investments projected [69]. - The low-altitude intelligent network system is crucial for the application of low-altitude industry scenarios, integrating various technologies for effective communication and navigation [72]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace industry is advised to focus on investment opportunities related to space infrastructure construction, including satellite and rocket manufacturing [57]. - The industry is in a rapid expansion phase, with significant market potential driven by satellite deployment needs [63].