证券研究报告|策略定期报告 2026 年 3 月 3 日 矿业民族主义浪潮持续，Claude Cowork 引发软件股重估 ——全球产业趋势跟踪周报（0302） 本周产业趋势主要集中在矿业和人工智能。矿业方面，2026 年 2 月 25 日，津 巴布韦矿业部突然宣布立即暂停所有未加工锂矿及锂精矿出口，禁令即刻生效 且适用于在途货物，旨在加强矿产监管、推动本地深加工，将资源价值留存国 内。该行动映射出深刻影响全球矿业格局的矿业民族主义思潮。人工智能方面， 2026 年以来，美股软件股遭遇剧烈抛售，以 IGV US ETF 为代表的美国软件相 关股票自 2025 年 9 月以来跑输大盘超 35%。这场抛售潮由 Anthropic 推出 Claude CoworkAI 插件工具直接触发，本质是市场对软件行业长期增长逻辑、 商业模式及估值模型的根本性重估。 【主题与产业趋势】出口禁令突袭全球锂链，矿业民族主义浪潮持续。2026 年 2 月 25 日，津巴布韦矿业部突然宣布立即暂停所有未加工锂矿及锂精矿出口， 禁令即刻生效且适用于在途货物，旨在加强矿产监管、推动本地深加工，将资 源价值留存国内。该行动映射出深刻影响全球 ...

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Citrini Research suggests that the anticipated economic prosperity from AI advancements may not materialize, potentially leading to systemic crises in the economy and financial systems [1][2][6] - A recent poll indicated that 33% of respondents believe AI will lower average human income, while only 15% think it will enhance it, reflecting widespread concern about AI's impact on employment [1] - The concept of "ghost GDP" emerged, highlighting that AI's productivity gains may not translate into real economic benefits for consumers, as many outputs may not circulate in the economy [10][11] Group 2 - By mid-2028, the unemployment rate reached 10.2%, exceeding market expectations and contributing to a 2% market decline, indicating a significant shift in economic conditions [8] - The economic structure evolved from manageable risks to a system that no longer aligns with historical growth experiences, leading to a crisis in consumer spending and credit defaults [8][9] - AI's rapid advancement has resulted in a significant reduction in white-collar jobs, with many workers forced into lower-paying positions, thereby eroding their income and spending power [11][12] Group 3 - The feedback loop created by AI's efficiency leads to a cycle where reduced labor costs result in further AI investments, exacerbating job losses and consumer spending declines [10][49] - The financial implications of AI's impact on employment are profound, as the white-collar workforce, which constitutes a significant portion of consumer spending, faces unprecedented challenges [39][58] - The shift towards AI-driven business models has led to a structural change in the economy, where traditional job roles are increasingly threatened, and new roles created often offer lower compensation [43][44] Group 4 - The private credit market, which expanded significantly, is now facing challenges as assumptions about stable revenue growth for software companies are being questioned due to AI disruptions [60][61] - The crisis in the software sector is exemplified by the case of Zendesk, which failed to meet debt obligations due to AI-driven automation, marking a significant event in private credit defaults [63][64] - The interconnectedness of financial systems means that losses in one sector can trigger broader economic repercussions, highlighting the systemic risks posed by AI advancements [73]

点，跌幅随即扩大至 247 点，低见 23730 点，其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点，午后大盘走势偏软，尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘，恒指收报 23831 点，下跌 145 点或 0.61%；国指收报 9656 点，下跌 47 点或 0.49%，大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿，其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿，港股通(深)净 流入 2.01 亿。板块方面，本地地产、软件、5G 概念板 块跌幅靠前；黄金股逆市走强。 周四港股市场单边下挫，科网股全线走低，生物 科技股大跌。恒生指数收跌 1.44%，报 26381.02 点；恒生科技指数下挫 2.87%，报 5109.33 点； 恒生中国企业指数下跌 2.44%，报 8814.29 点。 市场成交额为 2592.77 亿港元，较前一交易日的 2367.65 亿港元有所增加。恒生指数成分股中， 中升控股重挫 10.8%，药明生物下挫 7.5%，新东 方-S 下跌 5.1%，长和上涨 4.5%，长江基建集团 上涨 4.5%，电能实业上涨 3.8%。恒生科技指数成 分股中，小鹏汽车-W 下跌 5.1%，华虹半导体下跌 4 ...

华尔街"SaaS末日"惊魂 继对全球软件股造成冲击后，Claude正式进军金融行业。 当地时间2月24日，美国人工智能初创企业Anthropic宣布，旗下Claude Cowork新增数款插件，覆盖财务建模、股票研究、投资银行、私募股权和财富管理等 领域。 业内人士分析指出，对金融从业者来说，这可能是目前最完整的AI金融工具集。不再是简单的问答，而是真正融入工作流的智能助手。金融插件让人一键 变身华尔街分析师正在成为可能。 该公司表示，这些插件已上传至 GitHub代码库开源。 与本月初"AI杀死软件"论调形成对比，本次Anthropic强调"合作而非取代"。部分供应商股价上涨。 Wind数据显示，2月25日Wind美国金融指数上涨1.54%，非银金融指数（8882216.WI）上涨1.27%，金融服务指数涨幅达2.47%。 金融科技板块方面，纳斯达克金融科技指数上涨2.21%，VISA、万事达卡、美国运通三大卡巨头均上涨，嘉信理财涨2.39%，美国最大互联网券商盈透证券 涨2.41%，COINBASE涨13.52%，50只成分股中37只上涨。 | | 代码 7 | 简称 | 收盘价(原始币种) | স | ...

Core Insights - Citrini Research's report highlights potential risks posed by artificial intelligence (AI) to various sectors of the global economy, leading to significant declines in stock prices for companies in delivery, payment, and software sectors [1][2] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the report, stocks of major companies such as KKR, Blackstone, American Express, and DoorDash experienced substantial declines, with KKR down 8.89%, Blackstone down 6.23%, American Express down 7.2%, and DoorDash down 6.6% [1] - Other companies mentioned in the report, including Uber, Mastercard, and Visa, saw stock price drops ranging from 4.3% to 5.8% [1] Group 2: AI Impact Scenarios - The report presents a scenario where AI could lead to white-collar job losses, reduced consumer spending, and increased loan defaults supported by software, potentially resulting in economic contraction by 2028 [1] - Another scenario suggests that AI agents could replace existing delivery services like DoorDash and Uber Eats, and eliminate transaction fees charged by payment companies such as Mastercard and Visa, thereby saving users money [2] - Andy Fang, co-founder of DoorDash, acknowledged the disruptive potential of AI in the industry, emphasizing the need for adaptation to the changing landscape [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market's reaction to the report has been intense, with some analysts suggesting that the current market response may have overestimated the risks associated with AI [2]

【导读】美股大跌，IBM重挫超13%！金银大涨 道指成份股中，IBM跌13%，美国运通跌逾7%，领跌道指。 | 国际商业机器(IBM | 223.370 | -13.14% | | --- | --- | --- | | IBM.N | | | | 美国运通(AMERIC | 321.100 | -7.24% | | AXP.N | | | | VISA | 306.290 | -4.57% | | V.N | | | | 摩根大通(JPMOR( | 297.820 | -4.17% | | JPM.N | | | | 赛富时(SALESFOF | 178.180 | -3.77% | | CRM.N | | | | 耐克(NIKE) | 63.080 | -3.55% | | NKE.N | | | | 假#【MICROSOF】 | 384.470 | -3.21% | | --- | --- | --- | | MSFT.O | | | | 高盛集团(GOLDM | 892.803 | -3.19% | | GS.N | | | | 联合健康集团(UN | 282.435 | -2.61% | | UNH ...

由于对AI可能冲击企业利润的担忧再度升温和持续的关税不确定性冲击风险偏好，美国股市下跌，债 券上涨。比特币短暂跌破65000美元，黄金走高。 随着投资者评估最新贸易动态影响，标普500指数下跌近1%，软件股领跌。DoorDash和美国运通下挫， 此前Citrini Research发文详述了人工智能可能对市场和全球经济产生影响的假设性情境。 在美国最高法院上周五裁定废除总统特朗普的"对等"关税后，白宫迅速以新的15%全球关税予以回应。 欧盟冻结了与美国贸易协议的批准程序，直至特朗普明确接下来的关税计划，此举为本已紧张的跨大西 洋关系注入新的经济动荡。 Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management的Michael Landsberg表示："关税博弈可能在今年余下时间 持续干扰市场，但波动性将小于去年4月的最初冲击。" Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management的Michael Landsberg表示："关税博弈可能在今年余下时间 持续干扰市场，但波动性将小于去年4月的最初冲击。" 美国国债收益率下跌，尽管交易员目前完全计入的美 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 美国运通(AXP.N)跌幅扩大至6.3%。 ...

查看最新行情 美国运通该公司表示高收入客户正增加在餐厅和奢侈品上的消费，且持续追捧其高端信用卡。 "我们对客户群体中持续显现的强劲与稳定态势感到鼓舞，" 首席执行官Stephen Squeri在公司周五的第 四季度财报电话会议上表示，"从消费者角度看，我们持非常乐观的态度。" 这家信用卡公司称，第四季度餐厅消费增长 9%，零售消费增长 10%。奢侈品商户的消费增长了 15%， 这反映出 "我们客户群体的持续强劲实力"，Squeri表示。 在与分析师的电话会议中，Squeri还批评了特朗普总统提出的将信用卡利率上限设定为 10% 的提案。他 称此举将导致市场上信用卡数量和可用信贷额度减少，从而引发 "恶性循环"。"美国经济很大程度上依 赖信贷，我认为这将对小企业等造成影响，" Squeri表示。 美国运通的目标客户是更富裕的消费者，他们愿意为能享受特权和福利的信用卡支付高额年费。 去年，该公司推出了更新版的个人及商务白金卡，年费有所提高。公司表示，市场对这款全新卡片的需 求和使用率均超出预期，且在新年费政策下，客户留存率并未受到影响。 "我们看到了对高端产品，尤其是白金卡的巨大需求，" Squeri说，"假期期 ...

Macro and Financial - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in Q4 [5] - The Ministry of Finance has launched a package of policies to promote domestic demand, focusing on expanding private investment and boosting consumer spending [6][7] - The People's Bank of China indicates there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026 [7] - The first Loan Prime Rate (LPR) of 2026 remains unchanged at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, with potential for future reductions [7] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued new guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, effective March 1, 2026, aiming to shift the industry focus from scale to investor returns [14] - The CSRC has also imposed a fine of 5.11 billion yuan on an individual for manipulating stock prices, alongside a three-year market ban [15] - Shanghai has introduced 18 measures to enhance the trading capacity of non-ferrous metal commodities, aiming to improve global resource allocation and pricing influence [16] Precious Metals Market - The global metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold and silver reaching their highest weekly gains since 2020, and silver prices surpassing 100 dollars per ounce for the first time [17][20] - The weakening of the US dollar has led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the rise in precious metal prices [20] Business and Industry - Beijing has issued measures to encourage capable enterprises to engage in mergers and acquisitions within the satellite data industry, aiming to create globally competitive companies [21] - The first A-share IPO of 2026 has been accepted, with Shanghai Suiruan Technology aiming to raise 6 billion yuan for AI chip development [22] - The commercial aerospace company Zhongke Aerospace has completed its IPO counseling, marking a significant step in its market entry [23]