食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《春节动销趋势向好，聚焦龙头布局 景气赛道—行业周报》-2026.2.23 《包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕 育 结 构 性 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.11 《复苏态势明朗，板块预期乐观—行 业周报》-2026.2.8 节后需求稳健格局优化，健康功能饮品长期向好 ——行业周报 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：春节动销回暖结构分化，看好健康化饮品赛道龙头 2 月 23 日-2 月 27 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.5%，一级子行业排名第 2 ...

食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《春节动销趋势向好，聚焦龙头布局 景气赛道—行业周报》-2026.2.23 《包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕 育 结 构 性 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.11 《复苏态势明朗，板块预期乐观—行 业周报》-2026.2.8 节后需求稳健格局优化，健康功能饮品长期向好 ——行业周报 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：春节动销回暖结构分化，看好健康化饮品赛道龙头 2 月 23 日-2 月 27 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.5%，一级子行业排名第 2 ...

2025年我国60岁及以上人口已达3.2亿，占总人口比重上升至23%，预计2035年前后，我国银发族人口数量将突破4 亿，到2050年左右突破5亿。 这为银发经济创造了前所未有的需求基数。 随着年龄增长，银发族代谢功能下降，导致银发族饮食结构被迫调 【国信食饮|张向伟团队】银发经济行业专题：掘金银发餐桌，从"吃饱"到"吃对" 银发族人口数量持续上升，健康食品成为蓝海市场。 随着年龄增长，银发族代谢功能下降，导致银发族饮食结构被迫调整，健康属性从可选变为刚需。 受益标的：#西麦食品，燕麦食品赛道龙头。 公司从燕麦谷物产品起步，在过去三十多年的发展历程中，公司产品矩阵逐渐丰富起来，近年来还推出了以生物 科技为技术基础的大健康产品。 目前西麦食品在燕麦食品行业以26.0%的市占率占据榜首（第二名为外资品牌桂格，18.2%），在渠道、品牌、供 应链等方面展现竞争优势。 我们认为公司主要看点有三： 1）饮食健康化、人口老龄化趋势促进燕麦食品渗透率加速提升，西麦食品近年来#在渠道端取得突破，不仅率先 覆盖多类新兴渠道，也持续强化渠道运营能力、针对细分渠道适配差异化产品，#预计公司燕麦业务基本盘稳健成 长并快于行业大盘； ...

Macro Insights - The report identifies three historical "great migrations" of Chinese household wealth, with the third migration starting in 2023, indicating a shift in asset allocation trends[3] - The first migration (1998-2018) saw a significant flow of deposits into real estate due to housing market reforms, establishing real estate as a core asset class[4] - The second migration (2018-2023) involved a return to deposits as real estate values declined and risk aversion increased among residents[5] - The third migration reflects a transition to a "deposit+" era, where residents are diversifying into financial products beyond traditional deposits due to lower interest rates and improved returns in bond and equity markets[6] Market Strategy - Foreign capital continues to flow into the market, with a net inflow of $3.7 million in foreign investment as of February 11, 2026, and a significant increase in public fund issuance, reaching 43.63 billion yuan[9] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.1 trillion yuan, while the proportion of stocks rising increased to 47.6%[8] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 44.18 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards active management strategies[9] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical market for anticoagulants is projected to grow from $52.9 billion in 2023 to over $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease rates[13] - The heavy-duty truck market in China is expected to see sales of 760,000 units in 2026, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while January 2026 saw a 46% increase in domestic heavy-duty truck sales compared to the previous year[16][17] - The aviation sector is experiencing a resurgence, with a 6% increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival period, and ticket prices are expected to rise by 3-4% year-on-year due to increased demand[30][32]

第 1页 共 5页 第 2页 共 5页 一、研究背景评估 | 项目 | 说明 | | --- | --- | | 研究机构 | 国信证券经济研究所 | | | 具备中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格，专注于行业与公司研究。 | | 1. 权威性说明 | 专业资质：分析师张向伟、杨苑均具备证券投资咨询执业资格，研究体系规范。 | | 2. | 数据来源：引用国家统计局、Euromonitor、公司公告、海关总署、USDA 等权威数据源。 | | 3. | 连续跟踪：长期发布食品饮料行业周报、专题报告，对银发经济与健康食品有深度积累。 | | 4. | 机构背书：国盛证券（原文中提及，但报告为国信证券）为持牌金融机构，报告服务于机构投资者。 | | 样本数量 | 宏观数据分析，非抽样统计。覆盖银发人口、燕麦行业、公司经营等多维度数据。 | | 研究时间范围 2025 | 年及未来预测，数据更新至 2025 年末，并展望至 2027 年，具备强时效性。 | | 报告性质 | 行业专题研究报告，聚焦银发经济中的食品饮料机会，并以西麦食品为例深度分析。 | 二、范围与边界确认 | 研究维度 | 具体范围 | | -- ...

Summary of Conference Call on Consumer Goods - Snacks and Beverages Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the consumer goods sector, specifically snacks and beverages, during the Chinese New Year period in 2026, highlighting a significant recovery compared to the previous year [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Overall consumption showed signs of recovery, with essential products and gift boxes performing well during the holiday season [1]. - Discount promotions for core categories and specifications were less aggressive compared to the previous year [1]. - Modern channels and community pathways increased investment in product displays and promotional expenses [1]. Snacks Performance - Snacks performed better in the 2026 Chinese New Year compared to 2025, with hypermarket channels showing strong results [1]. - Data from East China, Central China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions indicated a 10% year-on-year growth in the snacks category for January-February 2026, with hypermarket channels exceeding 20% growth [1]. - Most brands set their sales targets for 2026 at over 20%, indicating a positive overall trend [1]. - Specific brand performances included: - **Wei Long**: 13% growth in January-February, with a target of 20% for 2026 [1]. - **Yan Jin Pu Zi**: 22% growth, with a target of 20% [1]. - **Three Squirrels**: 5% growth, with a target of 25% [1]. - **Jin Zai Foods**: 17-18% growth, with a target of 15% [1]. - **Qia Qia Foods**: 6% growth, with a target of 15% [1]. Beverage Performance - The beverage sector experienced a healthy shipment performance during the holiday, with significant brand disparities [3]. - Overall beverage shipments grew by 3% year-on-year for January-February, with expectations for double-digit growth in February [3]. - Specific brand performances included: - **Nongfu Spring**: 10% growth, with large packaging water showing double-digit growth [3]. - **Oriental Leaf**: 15% growth, with a target of 15% for 2026 [3]. - **Dongpeng Beverage**: 12% growth, with a target of 25% [3]. - **Kang Shifu**: Improved performance compared to Q4 [3]. - **Yang Yuan** and **Wang Lao Ji** showed slightly weaker year-on-year performance [3]. Recommendations - The overall performance of the snacks category met expectations, with a recommendation to continue focusing on brands like Wei Long, Yan Jin Pu Zi, and Xi Mai Foods for Q1 2026 [2]. - For beverages, the recommendation includes Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring, with expectations of significant growth in Q1 [3].

2025年我国60岁及以上人口已达3.2亿，占总人口比重上升至23%，较2024年上升了1个百分点，标志着 我国已正式迈入中度老龄化社会。中国老龄化科学研究中心预计2035年前后，我国银发族人口数量将突 破4亿，到2050年左右突破5亿。当前社会银发族经济基础较好、收入稳定性较强、健康意识显著提升， 正经历消费观念重塑，倾向于"悦己型"和"健康投资型"消费。 国信证券主要观点如下： 银发一族：有钱、有闲、有健康焦虑的优质消费者 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2025年我国60岁及以上人口达3.2亿，迈入中度老龄化社 会。银发族有钱有闲且有健康焦虑，驱动健康食品需求爆发。西麦食品(002956.SZ)作为燕麦龙头， 2024年市占率达26.0%，正围绕"燕麦谷物、大健康"双业务深化布局，受益于银发经济与健康消费趋 势。 健康食品成为蓝海市场 西麦食品从燕麦谷物赛道起步，历经三十余年发展历程，已完成从区域性品牌向全国行业龙头的蜕变。 2024年公司正式发布了新战略规划，明确继续围绕"健康产业"这一核心发展主线，积极布局"燕麦谷 物、大健康"两大业务。燕麦是一种健康食品的天然优质原料，其主要成分β-葡聚糖 ...

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The report highlights three major industry opportunities for the 2026 bull market: 1) The technology sector led by AI, with a shift from hardware to application expansion, focusing on humanoid robots and AI+ fields 2) The "double low" characteristics of real estate and liquor industries, indicating potential recovery as valuations and institutional holdings are at historical lows 3) Changes in supply-demand dynamics in resource products, supported by global factors, enhancing the value of resource allocations [8][10][11] Group 2: AI Industry - The AI industry is expected to transition from hardware to application, with significant growth in sectors such as governance, finance, manufacturing, education, and healthcare, driven by policy support and technological advancements [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of the AI application acceleration, particularly in edge computing and AI+ related fields, as well as the continued investment in the computing power supply chain [9] Group 3: Nuclear Fusion Industry - The nuclear fusion sector is identified as a key area for future energy systems, with its potential for near-infinite energy, high energy density, and minimal environmental impact, making it a strategic focus for development [12][13] - The report outlines the challenges of achieving controlled nuclear fusion, including the extreme conditions required for the reaction and the need for advanced materials and technologies [13][14] - Various approaches to achieving nuclear fusion are discussed, with magnetic confinement (Tokamak) being the most mature and commercially viable option [14] - The report forecasts significant market potential for nuclear fusion, estimating an investment scale of around 200 billion yuan during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, with a total market space of 8-10 trillion yuan if fusion power plants replace 20% of China's total electricity generation [16] Group 4: Financial Strategies - The report suggests a strategic asset allocation of 35% in equities, 25% in bonds, 25% in commodities, and 15% in cash, indicating a recovery phase in the economic cycle [28] - It highlights the importance of emerging markets as a diversification strategy, particularly in the context of high valuations in developed markets [29] Group 5: REITs Market - The REITs market is showing signs of recovery, with significant inflows into commercial real estate REITs and a notable increase in the number of public offerings [21][22][25] - The report notes that data center, consumer, and energy REITs have performed well, indicating a positive trend in these sectors [24]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - During the Spring Festival, national catering and retail consumption showed steady growth, with holiday consumption potential continuing to be released. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the first four days of the Spring Festival in 2026 increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025 [5][19] - The performance of Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as some mid-to-low-end price segments, exceeded expectations, while the overall performance of Fenjiu remained stable [15][19] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints - Moutai and mid-to-low-end liquor sales during the Spring Festival showed growth, while sub-premium liquor continued to face pressure. Moutai's repayment progress slightly exceeded the same period last year, and Wuliangye's repayment progress remained stable [15][6] - The mid-to-low-end liquor segment is expected to achieve double-digit growth during the Spring Festival, while high-end liquor sales are under pressure [15][6] 2. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Industry Index (801120.SL) dropping by 2.51% during the week of February 9 to February 14, ranking 29th among 30 Shenwan primary industries [20] - All sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry saw declines, with meat products, health products, and baked goods experiencing relatively smaller drops [20] 3. Key Company Announcements - Luzhou Laojiao announced that the number of restricted stock units eligible for release is 1,962,814 shares, accounting for 0.1333% of the company's total share capital [29] - Miaokelan Duo signed a memorandum with SADAFCO to explore the market for children's cheese snacks in Saudi Arabia [29] 4. Important Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced anti-subsidy measures for EU companies, with rates ranging from 7.4% to 11.7%, effective from February 13, 2026 [31] - Kangshifu launched a new product, Kangshifu Ice Red Tea Energy, entering the energy drink market [31] 5. Industry Chain Data Tracking - As of February 10, 2026, wheat prices were 2,510.8 RMB/ton, up 6.45% year-on-year, while pork prices were 18.08 RMB/kg, down 11.63% year-on-year [34][36]