多家机构对2026年中国经济走势形成积极共识，认为在政策支持、结构升级与潜力释放的多种利好叠加之下，经济将持续稳健上 升。 外资机构普遍预测，2026年中国经济将在政策支持下保持稳健增长。摩根士丹利认为，在适度的宽松政策、渐进的再平衡以及有节 制的"反内卷"措施下，2026年中国经济将温和增长。瑞银预计，2026年国内将施行更加精准的政策支持，经济活动整体将保持韧 性。 光大证券首席宏观分析师赵格格表示，在超大规模市场和强大产业体系的协同作用下，我国还有较大的经济增长潜力与提质升级空 间，宏观政策工具箱储备充足。 与此同时，内需市场的潜力正加速释放。随着一系列促消费、惠民生政策落地见效，将成为2026年扩大内需的关键力量。 央视网消息：近期，多家国内外机构发布2026年度策略报告，各家金融机构报告显示，2026年中国经济将延续稳健增长态势。 此外，"十五五"规划建议也令外资机构充满信心。高盛认为，规划建议体现了中国将进一步提升先进制造业竞争力，提振出口的决 心和能力。基于此，高盛上调了对中国出口增速和实际GDP增速的预测。 ...

央视网消息：近期，多家国内外机构发布2026年度策略报告。各家金融机构报告显示，2026年中国经济将延续稳健增长态势。 多家机构对2026年中国经济走势形成积极共识，认为在政策支持、结构升级与潜力释放的多种利好叠加之下，经济将持续稳健上升。 在多家机构的研报中，中国产业发展持续涌现新亮点。制造业与出口展现出强劲韧性，消费与公共服务支出则逐步成为经济增长的重要引擎。 多家金融机构表示，出口仍是经济增长的核心支撑力量。 光大证券首席宏观分析师赵格格表示，在超大规模市场和强大产业体系的协同作用下，我国还有较大的经济增长潜力与提质升级空间，宏观政 策工具箱储备充足。 此外，"十五五"规划建议也令外资机构充满信心。高盛认为，规划建议体现了中国将进一步提升先进制造业竞争力，提振出口的决心和能力。 基于此，高盛上调了对中国出口增速和实际GDP增速的预测。 外贸与内需双轮驱动经济高质量增长 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室亚太经济学家菲利普·怀亚特表示，比如为企业提供能源成本方面的优惠或补贴、面向消费者的补贴、对首套房 购房者的支持等，这些都属于"定向支持"。 外资机构普遍预测，2026年中国经济将在政策支持下保持稳健增长。摩根士 ...

11月18日，诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·施蒂格利茨接受新华社记者专访。新华社记者 陈铎 摄 新华社香港11月19日电（记者郑静霞）"对外开放政策将持续推动中国经济增长，尽管其推动增长 的方式与过去几十年不同。"诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·施蒂格利茨日前接受新华社记者专访时说。 施蒂格利茨分析，中国早期的对外开放，一方面通过引进新思想、新技术实现制造业产品出口优 势；另一方面通过在研究、人力资本和教育上大量投入弥合了与发达国家之间的知识差距。 "现在，中国正致力于前沿领域研究。当然，仍有许多领域要追赶，但这意味着更多资源将向前沿 科学倾斜。"施蒂格利茨说。 2024年，中国GDP同比增长5%，对世界经济增长贡献率保持在30%左右。展望未来，施蒂格利茨 认为，中国可为全球经济增长发挥更重要驱动作用。 11月18日，诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·施蒂格利茨（左）参加"中国经济运行与政策"国际论坛。新华 社记者 陈铎 摄 施蒂格利茨18日来香港参加"中国经济运行与政策"国际论坛。这位美国经济学家在访谈中表示，对 多极世界格局下中国经济发展持乐观态度。 施蒂格利茨评价，中国过去几十年实施的改革政策取得了显著成效，特别是在提升 ...

中新网北京11月16日电 (记者张素)"国内生产总值(GDP)增长5%左右"，这是今年政府工作报告公布的 2025年中国经济增速预期目标。近日发布的一份报告显示，今年前三季度，中国经济实际GDP同比增长 5.2%，高于去年同期0.4个百分点，完成全年5%左右增长目标的进度良好。 2025年四季度《中国经济观察》报告由毕马威发布。"在财政与货币政策协同发力下，四季度以投资为 代表的内需表现有望迎来修复，全年5%左右的经济增速目标有望顺利实现。"毕马威中国经济研究院院 长蔡伟说。 出口方面，报告指出，中国积极开拓非美市场取得了明显成效，前三季度对非美市场出口同比增长 12.6%，拉动总出口增速10.7个百分点。报告还称，预计四季度海外传统消费旺季将提振季节性外贸需 求，叠加中国在高端装备、新能源等高技术产品的竞争优势，出口总量有望保持一定韧性。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 关于消费，报告称今年前三季度社会消费品零售总额累计同比增长4.5%。新型消费业态蓬勃发展，数 字消费增长强劲，前三季度全国网上零售额同比增长9.8%。 展望四季度，报告表示在线上"双十一""双十二"等促销活动与线下中秋国庆等假期消费的共同提 ...

近日，GTCFX首席分析师Jameel Ahmad受邀出席土耳其国际新闻频道TRT WORLD节目，围绕"中美贸易休战对全球市场的影响"及"OPEC+产油政策动向"发 表了独到见解，为投资者提供了深度的市场分析与风险提示。 GTCFX首席分析师Jameel做客TRT WORLD 解读中美贸易休战与油市走势 贸易休战提振市场情绪但风险仍存 在谈及中美贸易休战时，Jameel Ahmad表示，当前市场的积极氛围虽受到休战消息的带动，但本质上这更像是一种"阶段性停火"而非真正的协议。他指出， 这一休战为中美关系带来暂时缓和，推动了市场情绪的回升。然而，美联储的政策不确定性与美国经济数据延迟公布，仍可能成为潜在风险因素。 他进一步分析称，近期美国财报季表现强劲，加之美联储此前降息，共同支撑了十月市场的整体上涨。但随着进入十一月，美联储已暗示短期内是否继续降 息尚无定论，加上政府停摆风险迫近，投资者应保持谨慎。与此同时，中国经济增长放缓的迹象同样值得关注，这可能促使部分投资者选择在本月进行获利 了结操作。 通过此次访谈，GTCFX展现了其在国际财经分析领域的专业实力，持续为全球投资者提供具有前瞻性与洞察力的市场观点。 ...

Economic Outlook - Multiple institutions predict that China's economic growth will remain stable in 2026, with targets around 5% [2][3] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects a GDP growth of approximately 4.9% in 2026, supported by fiscal expansion and improved local government finances [2][3] - UBS anticipates that domestic economic activities will maintain resilience, with a potential "low at the beginning, high at the end" growth pattern for 2026 [2][3] Policy and Fiscal Measures - CICC forecasts that supply-side policies will focus on enhancing quality consumption while reducing inefficient capacity [3] - Fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, with local special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds increasing in scale [3] - Monetary policy may include two reserve requirement ratio cuts totaling about 100 basis points and one to two interest rate cuts of 10 basis points each [3] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is transitioning from domestic-focused companies to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift towards a mature market [4] - Earnings for A-shares are projected to recover, with non-financial A-share growth expected to reach around 10% [4] - The market is likely to experience a more balanced style in 2026, driven by cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [5] Industry Trends - Key industry themes include the upgrading of traditional manufacturing, the globalization of Chinese enterprises, and the expansion of AI applications [5] - The "new economy" sectors are expected to grow faster than other economic sectors from 2026 to 2030, with their GDP contribution increasing by 3 percentage points by 2030 [3] - The macroeconomic environment and innovation trends are favorable for growth styles, with a potential shift in market dynamics due to past capacity reduction cycles [5]

Group 1 - The core finding of the report is that 88% of surveyed Chinese CEOs are confident about China's economic growth over the next three years, representing a significant increase of 17 percentage points compared to last year [1][2] - The report surveyed 114 CEOs across 13 industries, including asset management, automotive, banking, consumer and retail, energy, insurance, life sciences, healthcare, manufacturing, real estate, transportation, technology, and media, to gauge their outlook on economic growth and corporate development [1] - Key supporting factors for CEO confidence include a vast domestic market that provides ample space for consumption and industrial upgrades, a complete and flexible industrial system and infrastructure that fosters innovation and strengthens supply chain resilience, and the continuous release of engineering talent and entrepreneurial spirit that supports technological innovation and the development of new productive forces [1][2] Group 2 - Additional factors bolstering CEO confidence include the advancement of a unified national market and high-level opening-up, which helps eliminate institutional barriers and facilitates domestic and international dual circulation, thereby invigorating various market entities [2] - The improvement of the domestic macro-control system and the expansion of policy tools enable precise and effective support for cyclical and structural policies, significantly aiding in the recovery of domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and promoting green development, thus providing strong backing for high-quality economic growth [2]

Economic Growth Overview - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2023 is 5.2% year-on-year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and a slowdown to 4.8% in Q3 [1][4] - The economic performance aligns with expectations, influenced by external environmental challenges and the timing of policy implementations [4] Foreign Trade Performance - Despite concerns over foreign trade pressures due to the trade war starting in April, actual data shows a continuation of quarterly growth, with a notable 8.0% increase in September [4][5] - The total import and export volume for goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with Q1 growth at 4.5% and Q2 at 6% [5] Export Competitiveness - China's export competitiveness has shown remarkable resilience, particularly in non-U.S. markets, driven by innovation and large-scale production capabilities [7] - The country has effectively countered rising global trade protectionism by promoting trade liberalization, leading to significant expansion in new trade markets [7] Policy Directions for Q4 - The focus for Q4 policy will include maximizing the effectiveness of existing policy tools, targeting key areas of economic weakness, and enhancing market liquidity through monetary policy [7]

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, ranking among the top major economies [1][2] - The economic increment reached 39,679 billion yuan, an increase of 1,368 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1][2] Employment and Prices - The average urban unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2%, consistent with the first half of the year [4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% [4] International Trade - China's foreign trade showed strong resilience, with import and export volumes reaching historical highs, and foreign exchange reserves maintained above 3.3 trillion USD [4][5] - The total value of goods imports and exports increased by 6.0% year-on-year in the third quarter [9] Industrial Development - The proportion of added value from high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing reached 16.7% and 35.9%, respectively [4] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 14.0% year-on-year, significantly contributing to overall investment growth [6] New Economic Drivers - Industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing and electric vehicle production saw substantial growth, with increases of 29.8% and 29.7%, respectively [7] - The production of new energy vehicles and related products also experienced double-digit growth [7] Policy Impact - A series of policies have effectively stabilized the economy and supported long-term development, with consumer spending contributing 53.5% to economic growth [6] - The government has issued 300 billion yuan in special bonds to stimulate consumer demand through programs like "old for new" [6]

Economic Growth and Employment - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, accelerating by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year and the same period last year respectively, providing a solid foundation for employment and income stability [1] - The average urban unemployment rate from January to September was 5.2%, with quarterly averages of 5.3%, 5.0%, and 5.2%, showing overall stability in the employment situation [1] - Economic growth serves as a "ballast" and "stabilizer" for the job market, encouraging businesses to invest and expand, thus creating more job opportunities [1] Policy Support and Employment Measures - China has implemented targeted support measures for key employment groups, including special subsidies and expanded employment channels, aiming to deliver policy benefits to those in need [2] - The country is actively guiding and supporting the development of industries related to new productive forces, such as high-tech manufacturing, digital economy, and green industries, to create new employment opportunities [2] Resident Income and Consumption - The per capita disposable income of residents reached 32,509 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.1% year-on-year, with a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors, aligning with economic growth [3] - The ratio of urban to rural residents' disposable income decreased from 2.46 to 2.43, indicating a slight improvement in income distribution [3] - The increase in wage income, net operating income, and net transfer income are the main factors supporting the growth of residents' income [3] Price Trends and Market Signals - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6%, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with a narrower decline of 2.9% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, reflecting an improvement in domestic market competition and price recovery in certain industries [4]