Core Viewpoint - The pork price is experiencing a downward trend, reaching new lows, with concerns about potentially falling below 13 yuan/kg. However, there is a belief that prices may stabilize by the end of September if the market can withstand the mid-month pressures [2]. Group 1: Supply Risks - The official target is to reduce the breeding pig capacity to below 39 million heads by the end of the year, while the breeding sow capacity was still at 40.42 million heads as of the end of July, indicating a tight timeline for adjustments [4]. - The concentration of the pig farming industry has increased significantly after previous capacity reductions, making the actions of leading companies more impactful on the market. Typically, there is a tightening of supply at the beginning and end of the month, with increased supply expected mid-month, leading to potential price declines [5]. - There is a risk of supply pressure due to the ongoing production capacity adjustments and the need to manage the market effectively [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Although there has been a slight improvement in pork consumption with the cooling weather, it is still far from the expected peak consumption season, indicating that demand has not significantly rebounded [6]. - The increase in supply from large enterprises, coupled with sluggish demand, poses a significant challenge for small and medium-sized farmers, potentially pushing some out of the market [6]. - The upcoming double festival at the end of the month is expected to provide a temporary boost to market consumption, which may influence market sentiment positively [6]. Group 3: Market Adjustments - The pace of reducing the weight of pigs for slaughter is slowing down, which means that the market supply of pork may decrease, alleviating some supply pressure [8]. - There has been a rise in secondary fattening practices, which, despite official controls, are expected to increase as the consumption season approaches, further tightening the supply pressure [9]. - With a reduction in supply and an anticipated increase in demand, there is a possibility for pork prices to stabilize or even see a slight increase, especially as the peak consumption season approaches in October [11].

能繁母猪存栏量基本持平，但不同规模养殖场存在差异。集团厂稳定微 降，中型猪场稳中有增，散户变化不大。未来能繁母猪存栏量可能趋势 性下降，产能不具备持续增加动力。 全国生猪出栏均重小幅下降，但仍高于去年同期。集团猪场和中型厂出 栏体重下降，散户出栏体重增加，反映出官方减重政策的影响。 头部企业通过正常淘汰和加速更新品系两种方式减产能，散户主要为正 常淘汰。淘汰母猪价格跟随商品价格波动，8 月份淘汰母猪屠宰量有所 增加，规模场占比较高。 行业规范性政策，如规模厂备案和养殖检疫新规，对中小养殖户产生压 力，跨省调运检查更加严格，导致生猪供应省份价格下跌，如广东地区。 广西地区疫情主要集中在边境和港口，由越南猪瘟和走私猪引起，对集 团厂产能影响不大，但产房和断奶期间的弱子淘汰有所增加，目前疫情 已基本平稳。 今年二次育肥体量较去年减少，受行情而非政策影响更大。预计 10 月 上旬将出现年前最后一波集中二次育肥，可能随时出栏以应对腌腊或春 节需求，影响四季度生猪市场。 中型猪场盈利状况良好，资金相对宽裕，有稳定微增产能趋势。尽管银 行贷款难度增加和环保检查力度加大，但中型猪场仍是影响未来产能的 重要群体。 生猪；8 月 ...

【生猪周报】节后情绪好转 期价增仓上行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第一章 综合分析&交易策略 2 | | 内容提纲 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | | | 第二章 数据图表&逻辑分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1.综合分析&交易策略 ◼ 综合分析 本周是5月以来的第二周，也是节后的第一周，生猪价格整体呈现反弹上涨态势。本轮猪价的上涨主要因为供应端的 月初收紧以及二次育肥的提前抢跑。一般而言，进入月初，规模企业销售压力不大，因此出栏进度往往有放缓迹象，与此 同时，各地区养殖户也普遍对低价有一定抵触情绪，抗价情绪有所增加；而最主要的是，由于猪价看涨预期有所增强，二 次育肥集中入场导致屠宰企业收购困难，被迫提价，因此进一步强化了市场情绪。近期生猪市场情绪好转的主要原因还是 前期大体重猪源消化较多，同时市场对远期缺口的担忧仍然存在。但需要提示的是，5月期间现货供需矛盾并不明显，尤 其是需求方面仍然相对较差，如果后续二育熄火，叠加规模场开始陆续出栏，价格可能仍有回落可能； 期货方面，估值修复与现货驱动构成本周期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today's spot price of live pigs has limited upward momentum, showing a stable and slightly weak trend. The overall futures market is still trading under the pressure of increasing inventory, with short - term futures showing a volatile and weak trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Spot Price and Futures Price - On September 3, 2025, the national average price of live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged. The prices in different regions showed fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price drops. For example, Shandong dropped by 0.17 yuan/kg, and Hebei dropped by 0.13 yuan/kg [3]. - The price of LH2511 was 13,550 yuan, down 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,915 yuan, up 55 yuan; LH2603 was 13,130 yuan, up 35 yuan [3]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation - According to Yongyi data, the monthly live pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The weight decline was slower than expected, and secondary fattening was relatively stable [3]. - This week, the average national slaughter weight was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg from last week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. Group enterprises' progress in completing their tasks was slow, and there was still a shift of production capacity to later periods [3]. 3.3 Market of Piglets - This week, the average market selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head from last week. Recently, piglet prices have been continuously declining. Currently, it is the off - season for piglet replenishment, and farmers' demand for piglets has significantly weakened [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The effect of weight reduction in live pig breeding has not been obvious recently. There is still pressure on the spot market, but the process of capacity reduction takes time. Although the spot price has risen in the short term, the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed [3].

农产品日报 | 2025-08-28 养殖端持续出栏，猪价震荡调整 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约13745元/吨，较前交易日变动-115.00元/吨，幅度-0.83%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.56元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.08元/公斤，现货基差 LH11-185，较前交易日变动+195；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.67元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.02元/公斤，现货基差LH11-75，较前交易日变动+95；四川地 区外三元生猪价格13.43元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH11-315，较前交易日变动+15。 据农业农村部监测，8月27日"农产品批发价格200指数"为116.31，比昨天上升0.22个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为116.85，比昨天上升0.26个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.92元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；牛肉65.05 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；羊肉59.97元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；鸡蛋7.69元/公斤，比昨天上升1.1%；白条鸡17.67 元/公斤，与昨天持平。 市场分析 综合 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-27 市场供应充足，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13860元/吨，较前交易日变动-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.36%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.48元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-380，较前交易日变动-140；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.69元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09-170，较前交易日变动-30；四川地 区外三元生猪价格13.53元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差LH09-330，较前交易日变动-70。 据农业农村部监测，8月26日"农产品批发价格200指数"为116.09，比昨天上升0.31个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为116.59，比昨天上升0.36个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.01元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；牛肉64.91 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉59.66元/公斤，比昨天下降0.7%；鸡蛋7.61元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡17.67 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.6%。 市场分析 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 需求提振有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13910元/吨，较前交易日变动+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.51%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.67元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-240，较前交易日变动-10；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.04元/公斤，现货基差LH09-140，较前交易日变动-110；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.65元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-260，较前交易日变动+30。 据农业农村部监测，8月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为115.78，比上周五上升0.25个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为116.23，比上周五上升0.30个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.11元/公斤，与上周五持平；牛肉 65.09元/公斤，与上周五持平；羊肉60.07元/公斤，比上周五上升0.9%；鸡蛋7.65元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；白 条鸡17.57元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%。 市场分析 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Farming Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine farming industry, particularly the impact of production capacity regulation policies on the market dynamics and pricing trends of live pigs [1][3][16]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Trends and Influencing Factors** - Pig prices have dropped below 14 yuan, primarily due to the realization of production capacity in Q1 and Q2, with an increase in the number of fattening pigs as a result of accelerated weight reduction and shortened age [2][5]. - The market is expected to see a slight decline in prices in August and September, followed by a potential increase driven by seasonal consumption [2]. 2. **Production Capacity Regulation** - National capacity regulation has significantly impacted the swine industry, especially for large farming companies, effectively controlling the average slaughter weight [3][16]. - Without such regulations, prices could fall due to high slaughter weights and low prices, leading to reduced profitability for farmers [17]. 3. **Weight Reduction Strategies** - Major farming groups, such as Muyuan, have successfully reduced average slaughter weights to around 121 kg, with a target of below 120 kg by the end of August [4]. - The overall weight reduction target completion is approximately 80%, indicating a concerted effort to manage supply levels [4]. 4. **Market Dynamics and Supply Issues** - The supply of fattening pigs has shifted from self-breeding to piglet fattening and secondary fattening, leading to a supply gap due to high costs and losses incurred by farmers [6][11]. - The price difference between standard and fattened pigs is higher than in previous years, attributed to a decrease in self-breeding farmers and insufficient continuous supply of fattened pigs [6]. 5. **Regional Disease Outbreaks** - The southern regions of China are experiencing multiple waves of disease outbreaks, affecting swine populations and contributing to market instability [7]. 6. **Government Policies and Market Confidence** - Recent government policies have positively influenced market confidence, prompting farmers to maintain higher utilization rates of their facilities and prepare for future demand [11]. - Local governments have implemented measures to support production cuts, such as stricter regulations on pig movements and inspections [12][14]. 7. **Future Price Outlook** - The price of live pigs is expected to stabilize and potentially rise in 2026, contingent on the continuation of production capacity reductions [15]. - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a peak or near-peak price level similar to early July, with a price range between 13 yuan as the upper limit and 13 yuan as the lower limit [6]. Additional Important Insights - There is a notable trend of small and medium-sized farms attempting to expand production despite regulations, often through the rotation of breeding stock to enhance efficiency [12]. - The effectiveness of regulatory measures varies, with larger companies showing better compliance compared to smaller farms that may evade restrictions [16]. - The overall market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply, demand, and regulatory influences, necessitating close monitoring of industry trends and government actions [11][17].

表现强于9月合约，站上万四关口，操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14100 | 90 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 59598 | 626 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 380 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -18400 | -209 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may see an upward trend due to concerns about limited inventory growth and potential export increase in August. For soybean oil, the impact of US biodiesel policy has ended, and domestic demand may pick up in August. It is recommended to go long on dips for palm oil and pay attention to the domestic demand recovery for soybean oil [1]. - **Meal and Bean Products**: The US soybean market is under pressure due to the expectation of a bumper harvest and trade uncertainties. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for bean meal [2]. - **Pork**: The spot pork market is weak, with low enthusiasm for secondary fattening, increased slaughter volume, and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract is under pressure. For the far - month contract, it is not recommended to short blindly, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The corn market is relatively stable in the short term, with limited price increase and decrease. The supply is tight in the third quarter and may be loose in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and the growth of new crops [6]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has no new drivers, and the overall is bearish. The domestic sugar market has low demand, and the price is under pressure due to the increase in imports. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation [8]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price may decline slightly next week but still has an upward space in the spot market, while the futures upside is limited [11]. - **Cotton**: The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, and the demand weakness is weakening marginally. The domestic cotton price may oscillate in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The futures price of Y2509 was 8226 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The basis was 144 yuan/ton, down 37.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.78% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8970 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, down 308.33%. The import cost increased by 0.14%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of Ol509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis decreased by 26.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. Meal and Bean Products - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2990 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, up 5%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased by 30%. The import profit decreased by 57.84%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.68%. The basis increased by 26.89%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.14% [2]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 14125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The price of the 2509 contract was 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The 9 - 11 spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 120%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions decreased, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Henan and Shandong [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, up 54.84%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.45%. The import profit decreased by 0.88% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 566.67%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.89%. The starch - corn spread remained unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5731 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5867 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.79%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 4.9% [8]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Kunming was 5915 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The basis in Nanning decreased by 10.73%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 37.14% [8]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3576 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The price of the 08 contract was 3349 yuan/500KG, down 0.33%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 5.09% [10]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.48%. The basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, down 3.55% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13925 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The price of the 2601 contract was 14025 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The ICE US cotton price was 67.66 cents/pound, down 0.94%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15431 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14].