农产品日报 | 2025-08-27 市场供应充足，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13860元/吨，较前交易日变动-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.36%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.48元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-380，较前交易日变动-140；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.69元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09-170，较前交易日变动-30；四川地 区外三元生猪价格13.53元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差LH09-330，较前交易日变动-70。 据农业农村部监测，8月26日"农产品批发价格200指数"为116.09，比昨天上升0.31个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为116.59，比昨天上升0.36个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.01元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；牛肉64.91 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉59.66元/公斤，比昨天下降0.7%；鸡蛋7.61元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡17.67 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.6%。 市场分析 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 需求提振有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13910元/吨，较前交易日变动+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.51%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.67元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-240，较前交易日变动-10；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.04元/公斤，现货基差LH09-140，较前交易日变动-110；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.65元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-260，较前交易日变动+30。 据农业农村部监测，8月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为115.78，比上周五上升0.25个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为116.23，比上周五上升0.30个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.11元/公斤，与上周五持平；牛肉 65.09元/公斤，与上周五持平；羊肉60.07元/公斤，比上周五上升0.9%；鸡蛋7.65元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；白 条鸡17.57元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%。 市场分析 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Farming Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine farming industry, particularly the impact of production capacity regulation policies on the market dynamics and pricing trends of live pigs [1][3][16]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Trends and Influencing Factors** - Pig prices have dropped below 14 yuan, primarily due to the realization of production capacity in Q1 and Q2, with an increase in the number of fattening pigs as a result of accelerated weight reduction and shortened age [2][5]. - The market is expected to see a slight decline in prices in August and September, followed by a potential increase driven by seasonal consumption [2]. 2. **Production Capacity Regulation** - National capacity regulation has significantly impacted the swine industry, especially for large farming companies, effectively controlling the average slaughter weight [3][16]. - Without such regulations, prices could fall due to high slaughter weights and low prices, leading to reduced profitability for farmers [17]. 3. **Weight Reduction Strategies** - Major farming groups, such as Muyuan, have successfully reduced average slaughter weights to around 121 kg, with a target of below 120 kg by the end of August [4]. - The overall weight reduction target completion is approximately 80%, indicating a concerted effort to manage supply levels [4]. 4. **Market Dynamics and Supply Issues** - The supply of fattening pigs has shifted from self-breeding to piglet fattening and secondary fattening, leading to a supply gap due to high costs and losses incurred by farmers [6][11]. - The price difference between standard and fattened pigs is higher than in previous years, attributed to a decrease in self-breeding farmers and insufficient continuous supply of fattened pigs [6]. 5. **Regional Disease Outbreaks** - The southern regions of China are experiencing multiple waves of disease outbreaks, affecting swine populations and contributing to market instability [7]. 6. **Government Policies and Market Confidence** - Recent government policies have positively influenced market confidence, prompting farmers to maintain higher utilization rates of their facilities and prepare for future demand [11]. - Local governments have implemented measures to support production cuts, such as stricter regulations on pig movements and inspections [12][14]. 7. **Future Price Outlook** - The price of live pigs is expected to stabilize and potentially rise in 2026, contingent on the continuation of production capacity reductions [15]. - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a peak or near-peak price level similar to early July, with a price range between 13 yuan as the upper limit and 13 yuan as the lower limit [6]. Additional Important Insights - There is a notable trend of small and medium-sized farms attempting to expand production despite regulations, often through the rotation of breeding stock to enhance efficiency [12]. - The effectiveness of regulatory measures varies, with larger companies showing better compliance compared to smaller farms that may evade restrictions [16]. - The overall market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply, demand, and regulatory influences, necessitating close monitoring of industry trends and government actions [11][17].

表现强于9月合约，站上万四关口，操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14100 | 90 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 59598 | 626 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 380 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -18400 | -209 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may see an upward trend due to concerns about limited inventory growth and potential export increase in August. For soybean oil, the impact of US biodiesel policy has ended, and domestic demand may pick up in August. It is recommended to go long on dips for palm oil and pay attention to the domestic demand recovery for soybean oil [1]. - **Meal and Bean Products**: The US soybean market is under pressure due to the expectation of a bumper harvest and trade uncertainties. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for bean meal [2]. - **Pork**: The spot pork market is weak, with low enthusiasm for secondary fattening, increased slaughter volume, and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract is under pressure. For the far - month contract, it is not recommended to short blindly, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The corn market is relatively stable in the short term, with limited price increase and decrease. The supply is tight in the third quarter and may be loose in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and the growth of new crops [6]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has no new drivers, and the overall is bearish. The domestic sugar market has low demand, and the price is under pressure due to the increase in imports. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation [8]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price may decline slightly next week but still has an upward space in the spot market, while the futures upside is limited [11]. - **Cotton**: The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, and the demand weakness is weakening marginally. The domestic cotton price may oscillate in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The futures price of Y2509 was 8226 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The basis was 144 yuan/ton, down 37.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.78% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8970 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, down 308.33%. The import cost increased by 0.14%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of Ol509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis decreased by 26.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. Meal and Bean Products - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2990 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, up 5%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased by 30%. The import profit decreased by 57.84%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.68%. The basis increased by 26.89%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.14% [2]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 14125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The price of the 2509 contract was 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The 9 - 11 spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 120%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions decreased, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Henan and Shandong [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, up 54.84%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.45%. The import profit decreased by 0.88% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 566.67%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.89%. The starch - corn spread remained unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5731 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5867 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.79%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 4.9% [8]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Kunming was 5915 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The basis in Nanning decreased by 10.73%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 37.14% [8]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3576 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The price of the 08 contract was 3349 yuan/500KG, down 0.33%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 5.09% [10]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.48%. The basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, down 3.55% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13925 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The price of the 2601 contract was 14025 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The ICE US cotton price was 67.66 cents/pound, down 0.94%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15431 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the pig market is characterized by strong expectations but weak reality, and attention should be paid to path changes [1] - In the short - term, the spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly, and the futures price of the LH2509 contract will be in the range of 13000 - 14500 yuan/ton, with the 2026 contract entering the industrial profit - locking logic stage [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (7.21 - 7.27) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are running weakly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 37.5 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan is 14.18 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1628 yuan/head. The supply side shows a slight increase from large - scale farms and some reluctance to sell from smallholders. The demand side remains at a low level and is suppressed by high temperatures. The average slaughter weight nationwide is 124.68KG, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21% [2] - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices fluctuate significantly. The highest price of the LH2509 contract is 15150 yuan/ton, the lowest is 14160 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 14385 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract is - 205 yuan/ton [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (7.28 - 8.03) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. In the off - season, the adjustment of slaughter volume by large - scale farms has a greater impact on prices. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the release of social inventory will increase, and the influence of large - scale farms will decline. In August, the contradictions will start to be released. The supply side has relatively high inventory accumulation, and the demand side is suppressed by high temperatures. The policy of purchases for storage may provide support [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price has been affected by strong macro - sentiment this week. However, as it approaches the position - limit period, it will gradually return to the industrial logic. The far - month 2026 contract will enter the industrial profit - locking logic stage. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4] Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis is - 205 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 monthly spread is 0 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 124.68KG. In May, pork production was 549.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%; in June, pork imports were 8.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is trading the policy intervention in capacity reduction, reconstructing the original oversupply logic, and significantly increasing the valuation of each contract on the futures market, especially for the far - end contracts [12][14] - For near - end contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter increases, after the current active weight reduction to relieve pressure in advance and considering the possibility of active weight gain due to a large fat - standard price difference, the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter decreases, and the monthly spread may move towards a positive spread structure [12][14] - For far - end contracts, the long - term policy regulation of sow capacity cannot be falsified for now, and the monthly spread tends to be in a reverse spread [12][14] - The industrial structure is being reconstructed, the uncertainty of unilateral trading increases, and more attention should be paid to monthly spread opportunities [12][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, the spot pig price continued to decline. Due to enterprises reducing weight, the slaughter volume remained high, the weight mainly decreased, the demand was average, and the price trend was weak. The fat - standard price difference decreased month - on - month but was higher year - on - year. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.26 yuan to 14.2 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.16 yuan to 13.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong increased by 0.08 yuan to 15.58 yuan/kg. Affected by policies, the market's enthusiasm for slaughter remained high, but the supply may narrow near the end of the month. With the decline in pig prices, low prices may attract second - round fattening. It is expected that the pig price will first decline and then slightly increase next week [12][23] - **Supply Side**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight increase month - on - month, still 3.7% more than the normal level. Since last year, the sow production capacity has continued to increase, which may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the current expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction is strong, which may improve the supply next year. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. Currently, there is a pre - supply volume that can partially offset the pressure. In the short - term, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the weight decreased, indicating active market supply [12] - **Demand Side**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable for pork consumption. Pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, but the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted month - on - month [12][60] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation for now. For arbitrage, a 3 - 5 reverse spread or an 11 - 01 positive spread is recommended, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 2 months, and the core driving logic including policies, weight, basic supply, and fat - standard price difference [15] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The spot price continued to decline last week, with different price changes in different regions. It is expected to first decline and then slightly increase next week. Although the current trend is weak, there is still an expectation of a price increase in August [23][26] - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price trend is weak, but there is an expectation of a price increase in August [26] - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: Relevant price trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [28] - **Prices of Back - up and Culled Sows**: Relevant price and ratio trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [30] 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a slight increase month - on - month, still 3.7% more than the normal level. The policy - forced capacity reduction expectation is strong, and the implementation of policies in the next few months needs attention [35] - **Inventory and Slaughter**: Relevant inventory and slaughter volume trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [37] - **Sow Culling and Sales**: Relevant culling and sales volume trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [40] - **Theoretical Slaughter Volume**: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase in the basic supply from September to the end of the year. Currently, there is a pre - supply volume that can partially offset the pressure [44] - **Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter**: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is low, indicating low epidemic pressure; the proportion of large pigs has slightly increased, indicating that the proportion of large pigs gradually increases as the weight increases [47] - **Trading and Average Carcass Weight**: In the short - term, the slaughter volume increased slightly month - on - month, and the weight decreased, indicating active market supply [51] - **Import and Pig Feed Ratio**: Relevant import volume and feed ratio trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [53] - **Second - Round Fattening and Barn Utilization**: Relevant ratio and utilization rate trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [55] 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable for pork consumption. Pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, but the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted month - on - month [60] - **Slaughtering Rate and Gross Margin**: Relevant rate and margin trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [62] - **Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: Relevant spread and price - volume relationship trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [64] - **Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate**: Relevant spread and sales rate trend charts are provided, but no specific textual analysis is given in the text [66] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost bottomed out and then slightly rebounded, remaining relatively low year - on - year. Affected by the lag effect of low costs, although the pig price is weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [71] 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory is moderately low but is in a slow recovery state [76]

7月24日，生猪期货震荡下行，截至发稿主力合约报14320.00元/吨，跌幅2.55%。 机构观点 华联期货：需求淡季，终端消费依旧疲软，下游抵触高价猪。近期二育积极性放缓，加之料比较高，养 殖端加速出栏，供应压力显现，全国生猪现货价格弱势回调。不过在政策控量的预期下猪价下跌空间或 有限。中期来看，规模养殖场仍有利润，主动去产能积极性不高，能繁母猪存栏量仍处高位运行。政策 利好，看多情绪高涨，主力合约区间宽幅震荡，支撑位参考14000，可轻仓买入看涨期权。 国元期货：前生猪行业正处于产能释放阶段，终端消费则处于淡季。不过养殖端对后续需求回暖存在一 定预期，养殖端逢低压栏和二育操作，对猪价形成支撑，使得短期现货价格呈现震荡。受旺季消费预期 及产能调控政策的双重提振，盘面短期看涨情绪升温。然而从中期来看，当前存栏基数偏高，供给压力 持续释放。此外，短期看涨情绪引发的压栏和二育导致供给后置，进一步加剧中期的供应压力。综合来 看，在情绪主导的背景下，短期内盘面维持阶段性反弹走势，但受制于供给端的压力，反弹空间有限。 生猪2509建议区间14000-15000元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 农业农村部部党组书记、部长韩俊表示 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In late July, as group pig sales recover and demand is in the off - season, pig prices may continue to face pressure. In the medium to long term, pig supply will increase slightly, but the anti - involution initiative and strengthened environmental protection are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices, especially for far - month contracts [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 22nd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, recovered, and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,380 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 912 lots to 167,061 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 22nd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, the utilization rate of pigsties reached a high level, and secondary fattening was mainly on the sidelines. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 22, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 133,600 heads, a decrease of 15,000 heads from the previous day and the same as a week ago [9]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. Currently, the slaughter progress of farmers has recovered, the enthusiasm for slaughter has increased compared with the first half of the month, the slaughter weight has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is relatively high, with more secondary - fattened pigs yet to be slaughtered [9]. 2. Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 111 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 126 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 82 yuan/head [10][12]. 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 17 was 542 yuan/head, an increase of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [21]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [21]. - As of the week of July 17, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [21].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 21st, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest was 14,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton, up 1.77% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 7,352 lots to 167,973 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 21st, the average price of ternary pigs in the country was 14.40 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Demand: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, and the utilization rate of pens increased, indicating that the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment increased in the early stage. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 21, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 135,100 heads, a decrease of 700 heads from the previous day and an increase of 2,500 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% from June. Currently, the slaughter progress of the breeding side has recovered, the enthusiasm for slaughter has increased compared with the first ten days, the slaughter weight has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pens for secondary fattening pigs is relatively high. There are still secondary fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the future [10]. Outlook - In late July, the slaughter volume of large-scale farms will recover. In order to meet the monthly slaughter target, breeding enterprises may continue to increase the supply. At the same time, demand is in the off-season, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure [10]. - In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will continue to increase. However, the domestic anti-involution initiative and the strengthening of regional environmental protection policies are beneficial to the long-term performance of pig prices, especially the far-month contracts are affected by factors such as the expected reduction in weight and the increase in supply being less than the increase in demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 111 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 54 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was -126 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 82 yuan/head [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - On the week of July 17, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 542 yuan/head, an increase of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [22]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month-on-month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, -2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [22]. - As of the week of July 17, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week and a month-on-month decrease of 0.16% [22].