需求虽然承压，但成本端下降带来支撑，盈利依然有增长。从宏观环境来看，2025H1 全国基础设施投 资同比增长4.6%，房地产开发投资同比下降11.2%，房屋新开工面积同比下降20.0%，在整体宏观投资 放缓背景下，水泥需求表现也较为低迷，创下近年新低。 2025H1 全国水泥产量8.15 亿吨，同比下降4.3%。 公司层面来看：2025H1 水泥熟料自产品销量1.26 亿吨，同比下降0.35%（销量增速明显好于行业）； 不含税销价243 元/吨，同比增加4 元；吨毛利70 元，同比增加18 元（煤炭价格下跌，成本端同比下降 较为明显）。此外公司2025H1 计提了资产减值损失约3 亿。 最终来看，2025H1 公司实现归属净利润43.68 亿元，同比增长31.34%。 事件描述 公司发布半年报：2025H1 营业收入412.92 亿元，同比减少9.38%；归属净利润43.68 亿元，同比增长 31.34%；25Q2 营业收入222.4 亿元，同比减少8.24%；归属净利润25.57 亿元，同比增长40.26%。 资本开支节奏平稳，中期放缓趋势明确。2025H1 公司资本性支出约 62.1 亿元，主要用于项目建 ...

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 盈利结构与 2015 年有不同之处 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 28 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 工业企业盈利好坏参半。当前企业盈利整体降幅收窄，但我们认为不能用 好或不好来简单一概而论，因为今年 1-7 月的企业盈利数据结构性分化 特征比较明显。首先，整体上看，利润率支撑降幅收窄，量价均有拖累。 ...

【铜】 周二沪铜城仓回吐昨日涨幅，现铜报79585元，沪粤分别升水130、65元/吨。美国将铜列入2025关键矿物清单， 可使相关项目更有资格获得联邦资金支持或适用简化许可程序,同时银、铝和硅也被列入该清单。沪铜整数关 阻力强,高位空单持有。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | なな☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@es ...

Price Summary - Steel prices have decreased this week, with Shanghai 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3270 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from last week [1][2] - High-line 8.0mm is priced at 3420 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Hot-rolled 3.0mm is at 3420 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton [1][2] - Cold-rolled 1.0mm is priced at 3830 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Common medium plate 20mm is at 3470 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton [1][2] - Domestic ore prices are stable to rising, while imported ore prices are stable to falling, and scrap steel prices have decreased [2] Profit Analysis - Steel profits have declined this week, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by -58 CNY/ton, -50 CNY/ton, and -42 CNY/ton respectively [2] - Electric arc furnace steel margins have decreased by -34 CNY/ton [2] Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products reached 8.78 million tons, an increase of 64,300 tons week-on-week [3] - Construction steel production decreased by 37,100 tons week-on-week, while plate production increased by 101,400 tons [3] - Rebar production decreased by 58,000 tons to 2.1465 million tons [3] - Total social inventory of five major steel products increased by 264,300 tons to 10.1621 million tons [3] - Steel mill inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 4.2383 million tons [3] - Apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.948 million tons, an increase of 48,600 tons week-on-week [3] Investment Recommendations - The expansion of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs has put pressure on steel prices [4] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has extended tariffs to 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivatives, affecting most downstream steel manufacturing [4] - Seasonal demand weakness and a vacuum in supply-side policies have led to a significant narrowing of steel mill profits [4] - Long-term capacity management remains a key focus, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply [4] - Recommended stocks include: - General steel sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel [4] - Special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. [4] - Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel [4] - Suggested focus on high-temperature alloy stocks: Fushun Special Steel [4]

Group 1 - The China Chemical Enterprises Management Association will host the 2025 National Petroleum and Chemical Enterprises Management Innovation Conference on September 25-26 in Beijing [1] - The chemical ETF (159870) has seen a recent increase of 1%, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 0.67 yuan and a net subscription of 420 million units [1] - Open-source Securities believes that "anti-involution" will be a key policy focus for 2025 and beyond, aiming to control new capacity and optimize existing capacity in key industries [1] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) account for 43.54% of the index, including Wanhu Chemical, Salt Lake Co., and Juhua Co. [2] - The chemical ETF (159870) has a current scale exceeding 7.4 billion, ranking first among similar products [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline in a volatile manner. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection production restrictions [4]. - The prices of iron ore, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron are affected by supply, demand, and policy sentiment. The short - term prices of iron ore may continue to adjust, and for manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [7][10][11]. - The prices of industrial silicon are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the prices of polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely. The prices of glass are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. The prices of soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [16][17][19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3375 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Spot Market**: The rebar price in Tianjin was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shanghai was 3420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar production decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, demand continued to recover, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. The overall steel production is still at a high level, while the demand - side support is insufficient [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (+ 3.50), and the position increased by 11185 lots to 451,600 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.42 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.44% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased in the latest period. The daily average pig iron output was 240,750 tons, basically unchanged from last week. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The short - term upward increase of pig iron may be limited [7]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Futures Market**: On August 21, the main contract of manganese - silicon (SM601) closed slightly up 0.03% at 5838 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon - iron (SF511) closed up 0.28% at 5638 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of 72 silicon - iron in Tianjin was 5830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity pattern of manganese - silicon has not changed. The production of manganese - silicon has shown an upward trend recently, and the supply - side pressure remains. The demand for silicon - iron and the entire black sector may weaken marginally in the future [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, up 2.92% (+ 245), and the position increased by 2630 lots to 529,075 lots [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 415 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 165 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not fundamentally changed. The production is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support, but the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 345), and the position decreased by 1672 lots to 335,483 lots [16]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 46 yuan/kg, up 1.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 48 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 49 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 2530 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The production increased week - on - week, and the inventory reduction was limited. The prices are expected to fluctuate widely [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Central China was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes, up 0.28% from the previous week [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass production remains at a high level, the inventory pressure has increased slightly, and the downstream real - estate demand has not improved significantly. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons, up 0.71% from last Thursday [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The downstream demand has little fluctuation, and the production of soda ash devices fluctuates slightly. The prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [20].

Core Insights - The price of polysilicon futures has shown a significant upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.65% to 52,230 yuan/ton as of August 21 [1] Market Overview - On August 20, the price of N-type polysilicon feedstock reached 47,000 yuan/ton, while the lowest delivery price dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, resulting in a spot discount of 7,305 yuan/ton [2] - According to the National Energy Administration, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in June was only 14.36 GW, marking a year-on-year decline of 38% and a month-on-month decline of 85% [2] - Despite an expected global photovoltaic installation of approximately 580 GW and domestic demand of about 1.3 million tons by 2025, short-term demand weakness is a key factor limiting the rise in polysilicon prices [2] - As of August 20, the number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 440 to 6,370 [2] Institutional Perspectives - Newhu Futures indicates a downward trend in industry supply, with expectations of production cuts in southern and northern regions, while new capacity is gradually ramping up. The future production scheduling of enterprises remains to be observed [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes a recent cooling in market sentiment, with previous high points of 53,000 yuan/ton becoming short-term resistance. The emphasis on resisting sales below cost suggests limited downward price potential [3] - The current market for polysilicon is characterized by a "policy logic exceeding fundamental logic" adjustment phase, indicating that price fluctuations will impact the entire photovoltaic industry chain and investment decisions [3]

黑色建材日报 2025-08-21 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 8 月 20 日，铁合金延续下行。锰硅主力（切换成 SM601 合约）日内收跌 1.32%，收盘报 5836 元/吨。现货 端，天津 6517 锰硅现货市场报价 5800 元/吨，环比上日持稳，折盘面 5990 吨，升水盘面 154 元/吨。硅铁 主力（SF511 合约）日内收跌 0.99%，收盘报 5622 元/吨。现货端，天津 72#硅铁现货市场报价 5830 元/吨， 环比上日持稳，升水盘面 208 元/吨。 盘面角度，锰硅盘面价格跌破 6 月初以来的短期反弹趋势线，且跌破 5850 元/吨附近获得支撑，向下或寻 找 5600-5650 元/ ...

具体来看，通过水泥价格修复与成本优化双向发力，天山股份水泥销售价格和销售毛利率同比提升；商 混销量基本持平，受砂石价格下行影响，商混价格呈走低态势，公司积极推进降本工作，原材料成本下 降，商混单方毛利及整体效益均同比增长；骨料销量同比基本持平，受市场下行影响，骨料价格下滑， 毛利率同比下降。 今年上半年，全国水泥市场需求持续萎缩，房地产市场仍处于深度调整过程中，短期内房地产开发投资 和房屋新开工面积深度下降趋势尚未改变，影响整体水泥需求。不过，在相关政策的指引和推动下，水 泥行业产能治理逐步提速，部分对冲了需求下行的不利影响。 证券时报记者刘灿邦实习生云靖童 8月19日，天山股份（000877）披露了2025年半年度报告。上半年，公司实现营业收入359.80亿元，同 比下降9.4%；净利润亏损9.22亿元，同比减亏。 上半年，天山股份销售水泥8062万吨，同比下降14.63%；销售熟料990万吨，同比下降14.59%；销售商 混3416万方，同比下降0.29%；销售骨料5768万吨，同比下降2.86%。 天山股份表示，报告期内，公司大力推进降本控费，加上煤炭价格下降因素影响，水泥、商混业务生产 成本同比降幅较 ...

Economic Growth - In July 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, slowing down by 1.1 percentage points from June[9] - Fixed asset investment from January to July 2025 increased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year[10] - Social retail sales in July 2025 rose by 3.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[10] Trade and Exports - In July 2025, China's total exports reached $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[38] - Imports totaled $223.54 billion in July 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%[51] - The trade surplus for July 2025 was $98.24 billion[38] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2025 showed no growth year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[57] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month[57] Monetary Policy - New social financing in July 2025 was 1.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 64.8% compared to July 2024[14] - New RMB loans in July 2025 were -50 billion yuan, a drop of 119% year-on-year[14] - M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a stable expansion of monetary supply[15]