农产品日报 | 2025-12-12 当前供需格局并未出现转变，油厂开工率维持高位，大豆及豆粕库存持续累库，政策端稳定之后，暂无突发新闻 刺激豆粕市场，因此整体豆粕价格同样以震荡运行为主。当前美豆进口成本依旧偏高，未来需重点关注美豆的进 口情况以及新季南美产区的天气情况。 供需格局延续，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 策略 市场要闻与重要数据 谨慎偏空 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2750元/吨，较前日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.15%；菜粕2605合约2323元/吨，较前日 变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.26%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3090元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M05+340， 较前日变动+34；江苏地区豆粕现货3040元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M05+290，较前日变动+14；广东 地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M05+300，较前日变动+24。福建地区菜粕现货价 格2550元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM05+227，较前日变动+16。 风险 近期市场资讯，12月10日，美国农业部发布的月度油籽压榨报告显示，美国2025年 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-10 市场仍显宽松，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2763元/吨，较前日变动-15元/吨，幅度-0.54%；菜粕2605合约2317元/吨，较前 日变动-25元/吨，幅度-1.07%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差 M05+287，较前日变动-5；江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M05+237，较前日变动-5； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M05+237，较前日变动+5。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2510元/吨，较前日变动-40元/吨，现货基差RM05+193，较前日变动-15。 近期市场资讯，12月8日，巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西12月第一周出口大豆97万吨，日均出口 量为19.4万吨，较上年12月全月的日均出口量9.6万吨增加103%。上年12月全月出口量为200.6万吨。巴西农业咨询 机构AgRural表示，截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆播种面积已达预期面积的94%。美国农业部周一公布 ...

研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/05 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | 淀粉 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/28 | 2090 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | -4 | 45 | 259 | 2700 | 2850 | 139 | -29 | | 2025/12/01 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2440 | 4 | 45 | 252 | 2700 | 2850 | 163 | -47 | | 2025/12/02 | 2120 | 2240 | 2210 | 2430 | -3 | 35 | 249 | 2700 | 2850 | 159 | -47 | | 2025/12/03 | 2120 | 2250 | 2210 | 2450 | -9 | 50 | 247 ...

农产品早报 2025-12-03 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆窄幅震荡，巴西升贴水小幅下跌，大豆到港成本暂稳。周二国内豆粕现货下调 30 元/吨， 华东报 2990 元/吨，豆粕成交较弱、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 213.53 万吨，上 周压榨大豆 220.38 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.17 天环比上升 0.19 天，上周国内大豆及豆粕累库，主 要是压榨量较大，表观消费环比持平。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区 11 月同比偏干，不过 12 月初预报降雨恢复，然而东南部产区预计降雨量持续较少，产 区还未达到一帆风顺，据外媒报道，截至上周四，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆种植面积已达预期面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean: The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping to 28.94%. The bottom of the import cost may be apparent, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate [3][5]. - Palm Oil: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. The current supply surplus may reverse. If high - yield does not continue, the de - stocking time will come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [10]. - Sugar: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major countries, with the global supply - demand turning from shortage to surplus. The international sugar price may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to short on rallies and close positions on price drops [13]. - Cotton: Although the previous peak season was weak, the demand is not too bad after the peak season. The short - term capital inflow may push up the cotton price, but it's hard to have a unilateral trend [18]. - Eggs: Due to continuous losses, the sentiment of culling hens is strong. The short - term view is long, and the medium - term view is short [21]. - Pigs: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell, Brazilian premiums declined slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 30 yuan/ton, with weak trading and good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.1353 million tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The USDA predicts a shift in the global soybean supply - demand pattern, and the global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped. The domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching [3][5]. Oil - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, domestic oils fluctuated, with foreign capital adding short positions in palm oil and long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The spot basis in China is stable [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production had mixed changes. The total inventory of the three major domestic oils continued to decline last week, but was still higher than the same period last year. The floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not significantly affected palm oil production [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract rose by 5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of new sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while the prices of processed sugar remained unchanged [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 1, 39 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 310,000 tons. The global sugar supply is expected to have a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly. The closing price of the January contract increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of cotton also increased, and the basis was 1171 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of November 28, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons. In 2025, China's cotton imports decreased. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase [16]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased slightly. The supply was relatively stable, the downstream sales were slow, and the inventory in the trading link increased slightly [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling hens. The far - month contracts are strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting consumption stocking and capacity reduction [21]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with partial declines. The average price in Henan and Sichuan increased slightly. The supply pressure from northern farmers and small farms increased, and the demand increase was limited [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The theoretical slaughter volume is still large, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, due to low supply and downstream enterprises' restocking demand, corn prices will remain strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern remains tight, and planting costs will strongly support prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices and are pressured by high inventory. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3]. - Sugar: The global and domestic sugar supply is in a loose pattern. Maintain a short - selling strategy, but the short - term downward space is limited [6]. - Cotton: New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial to textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [9]. - Eggs: Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Focus on the change of the chicken culling rhythm [12]. - Apples: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The average opening price is high, and the price difference between good and bad products widens. The price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [14]. - Pigs: There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. The supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, policies, and capital sentiment [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, prices in different regions changed slightly. For example, the price in潍坊 increased by 10, while the price in other regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and trade profits also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply is low, and downstream enterprises need to restock, driving up prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is tight, and planting costs support prices. Starch prices are pressured by high inventory in the short - term and depend on downstream consumption in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the spot price in some regions decreased, the basis decreased by 24, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 7618 [6]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the cost of domestic sugar is the key support. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the cost of domestic sugar may be broken through. The supply is loose, and the short - selling strategy is maintained, but the short - term downward space is limited [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, and the import profit, warehouse receipts + forecasts, and other data also changed [9]. - **Analysis**: New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial to textile exports, and long - term long positions are suitable [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the prices in some production areas increased, and the basis increased by 22 [12]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases due to the longer storage time. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Focus on the change of the chicken culling rhythm [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis of different months had corresponding changes [13][14]. - **Analysis**: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The average opening price is high, and the price difference between good and bad products widens. The price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [14]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the prices in production areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 95 [15]. - **Analysis**: There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. The supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, policies, and capital sentiment [16].

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/24 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/17 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2340 | -2 | 10 - | 2700 | 2800 | 166 | -10 | | 2025/11/18 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2360 | 12 | 30 - | 2700 | 2800 | 188 | -10 | | 2025/11/19 2070 | 2170 | 2130 | 2360 | -5 | 40 185 | 2700 | 2800 | 225 | -1 | | 2025/11/20 2070 | 2170 | 2150 | 2350 | 2 | 30 197 | 2700 | 2800 | 232 | -1 | | 2025/ ...

农产品早报 2025-11-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【行情资讯】 上周五 CBOT 大豆先跌后涨，受到中国买船支撑，上周巴西升贴水小幅下跌，大豆到港成本回落。周末 国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2990 元/吨，上周豆粕成交、提货均较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨 量为 231.73 万吨，上周压榨大豆 233.44 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 7.98 天环比下降 0.25 天。 杨泽元 巴西大豆产区 11 月降雨水平同比往年略低，12 月预报雨量较多，预计播种较为顺利。11 月 USDA 月报 预估 25/26 年度全球大豆产量与消费量已几乎持平，同时，全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需 增。 ...

研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/21 | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/14 2070 | 2160 2150 | 2330 | -25 | 20 156 | 2700 | 2800 | 150 | 9 | | 2025/11/17 2070 | 2180 2130 | 2340 | -2 | 10 - | 2700 | 2800 | 166 | -10 | | 2025/11/18 2070 | 2180 2130 | 2360 | 12 | 30 - | 2700 | 2800 | 188 | -10 | | 2025/11/19 2070 | 2170 2130 | 2360 | -5 | 40 185 | 2700 | 2800 | 225 | -1 | | 2025/11/20 2070 | 2170 2150 ...

研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/18 | 玉米/淀粉 | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/11 2070 | 2130 2150 | 2300 | -47 | 20 164 | 2700 | 2800 | 165 | 8 | | 2025/11/12 2070 | 2140 2150 | 2310 | -37 | 20 151 | 2700 | 2800 | 165 | -12 | | 2025/11/13 2070 | 2150 2150 | 2320 | -36 | 20 145 | 2700 | 2800 | 148 | -12 | | 2025/11/14 2070 | 2160 2150 | 2330 | -25 | 20 156 | 2700 | 2800 | 150 | 9 | | 2025/11/17 2070 | 2180 ...