原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月26日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月25日 | 12月24日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 765.5 | 766.5 | -1.0 | -0.13% | | | 原木2603 | 778.0 | 776.0 | 2.0 | 0.26% | | | 原木2605 | 785.5 | 784.0 | 1.5 | 0.19% | | | 01-03价差 | -12.5 | -9.5 | -3.0 | | | | 01-05价差 | -20.0 | -17.5 | -2.5 | | | | 03合约基差 | -38.0 | -36.0 | -2.0 | | | | 01合约基差 | -25.5 | -26.5 | 1.0 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Log Weekly Report - Report date: December 7, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo - Company: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream log varieties in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable compared to last week. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply. - The supply of logs from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, with 29 ships expected to arrive in that month. - The demand for logs in ports decreased, with the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port decreasing week-on-week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 78,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - The log futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, with the fundamentals maintaining a weak supply-demand pattern. The monthly spread marginally changed this week. [4][5][14][20] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Supply - As of November 30, 41 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 34 bound for the Chinese mainland and 7 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. Among them, about 12 ships were expected to arrive in November and 29 in December. The expected arrival volume in November was 1.41 million cubic meters. [5][8] 2. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 10,200 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,100 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 900 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.3688 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 6,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 452,400 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 50,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 274,100 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 35,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 160,200 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 13,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2555 million cubic meters, a week-on-week increase of 78,600 cubic meters. [6][14] 3. Market Trends - As of December 5, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 765.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.3% increase from last week. The futures market continued its weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a weak supply-demand pattern. The monthly spread marginally changed this week, with the 01 - 03 monthly spread at -13 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread at -24.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread at -11.5 yuan per cubic meter. [20] 4. Other - As of the week of December 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,814.00 points, a 254-point (9.9%) increase from last week. Its related sub-index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 841 points, a 1.7% increase from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,397.63 points, a 0.4% decrease from last week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate at 7.071, a 0.11% week-on-week decrease, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreasing by 0.8% to 1.73. [6][56]

国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月7日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 750 元/方，较上周 持平，江苏市场报价 740 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 10。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 855 元/方，较上周 持平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 760 元/方，较上周 持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市场上 的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 截止到11月30日，11月从新西兰出发的船只总共有41条，其中有34条去往中国大陆，7条去往 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and spread of logs. It indicates that the supply - side pressure is decreasing, the demand remains weak with the approaching off - season and wood blue - stain period. The price is under pressure, and the market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance in the future [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply - side**: In September 2025, the number of arriving ships was 16, and the arrival volume was 53.1 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was about 200.13 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the subsequent arrival will remain stable, and the supply - side pressure will decrease [7]. - **Demand and Inventory - side**: The weekly shipment volume and apparent demand show no significant improvement. The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the weak demand despite the decrease in arrivals this week [9]. - **Price and Spread**: The outer - market quotation has a slight adjustment, the spot price is under pressure, and the wood - block price is stable. The spread is relatively stable, and the basis has certain support [11][13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of logs is expected to decline, and the import profit is decreasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot market price is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of the futures market are weakly oscillating, and it is expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. 3.2 Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report presents the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to November 7, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, and the supply - demand difference [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by species [25][27][30]. - **Demand - side**: It involves the daily shipment volume of logs, the real - estate market, and downstream analysis such as wood - block price, profit, and downstream substitutes [34][36][41]. - **Inventory - side**: It includes inventory summaries, inventory by species, and inventory by region [58][60][66]. 3.4 Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: Analyzes the import cost and profit of logs [72]. - **Log Delivery Profit**: Analyzes the delivery profit of logs [77]. 3.5 Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotation of logs [82]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Prices**: Presents the seasonal price trends of radiation pine and spruce [85]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Spreads**: Analyzes the seasonal spread trends of radiation pine and spruce [98]. - **Basis between Radiation Pine and LG**: Analyzes the basis between radiation pine and LG [104]. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: Presents the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of LG main contracts [106].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The General Administration of Customs of China has decided to lift the suspension on the import of American logs, effective November 10, 2025, based on an assessment of U.S. corrective measures [1]. Market Conditions - As of the week ending November 3, 2025, the inventory of coniferous logs at Chinese ports reached 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters week-on-week, indicating a cumulative inventory build-up [1]. - On November 7, the spot market prices for logs remained stable, with Shandong's 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs priced at 750 yuan per cubic meter and Jiangsu's 4-meter medium A radiata pine logs at 770 yuan per cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. Institutional Perspectives - CITIC Construction Investment Futures noted that the log market has returned to being driven by fundamentals after experiencing high volatility. Current valuations are at historical low levels, presenting some left-side layout value. However, the supply-demand balance remains weak, and short-term port pressure persists. Investors are advised to choose strategies based on their risk tolerance, with aggressive investors encouraged to take small positions for potential valuation recovery, while conservative investors should wait for signs of stabilization in the spot market [2]. - Guotou Anxin Futures reported that the futures prices are operating weakly. High external prices and weak domestic spot prices are increasing pressure on traders, with no significant increase in imports expected in the short term. However, port outflow remains above 60,000 cubic meters, providing some support for prices. Overall, low inventory levels are expected to support prices, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for operations [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, and the fundamental situation remained relatively loose. The monthly spread changes were relatively small this week [20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 2, there were 2 ships departing from New Zealand in November, all heading to mainland China. It is estimated that 2 ships will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an expected arrival volume of 1.04 million cubic meters in November [4][7]. - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows two ships departing on November 2, 2025, with a load of 42,000 and 40,820 JAS m3 respectively, both heading to Lanshan Port in China and expected to arrive on November 21 - 22, 2025 [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 300 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2608 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 304,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 47,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port had about 310,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 40,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 198,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 55,700 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0737 million cubic meters, a decrease of 15,800 cubic meters from the previous week [5][13]. - Inventory data shows detailed changes in the inventory of different ports and timber species over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [14]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 14 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 27 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 13 yuan per cubic meter [20]. 3.4 Price and Spread - Log spot price data shows the prices and price changes of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu regions over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [24]. - The regional price spreads of mainstream timber species show the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions [26][35]. - The price spreads between tree species and specifications show the price differences between different tree species and specifications [43][45]. 3.5 Other - As of the week ending November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,063 points, an increase of 97 points (+4.9%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 815 points, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,495.10 points, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week [5][58]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index remained at a relatively high level recently. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.123, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.777 [5][58].

Core Viewpoint - The main sentiment in the market for log futures is cautious, with expectations of limited price movement in the short term due to various supply and demand factors [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 5, log futures experienced weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping to a low of 775.0 yuan and closing at 777.0 yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.19% [1]. - The overall market sentiment indicates a lack of driving forces for price increases, leading to a recommendation for cautious trading strategies [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Newhu Futures highlights that the inventory pressure for softwood logs is higher than the same period last year, particularly at Shandong ports, while Jiangsu ports show lower inventory levels compared to recent years [1]. - The external market prices remain stable but high, while domestic demand is weak, leading to a cautious outlook on potential price increases [1]. - Green DHH Futures notes that the supply side is under pressure from high external prices, while domestic prices remain weak, suggesting that short-term import volumes are unlikely to rise significantly [1]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - The total inventory of logs is at a low level, which provides some support for prices, despite the recent increase in log arrivals at ports [1]. - The average daily shipment volume has been above the levels seen since September, indicating stable sales conditions [1]. - Cost factors such as the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and New Zealand dollar, along with shipping costs, have increased, but stable fuel prices at the Tauranga port help balance importers' pricing [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of mainstream delivery product 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong remained flat, while in Jiangsu it increased by 5 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong increased by 60 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were in short supply [4]. - The total number of ships departing from New Zealand in October was 19, with 15 going to mainland China. It is expected that 1750000 cubic meters will arrive in October [5][8]. - As of the week of October 10, the daily shipment volume of major ports decreased, and the total inventory of four major ports increased by 39100 cubic meters compared with the previous week [6][13]. - As of October 17, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 decreased by 2.1% compared with the previous week, showing a weak - oscillating trend. The contango spread further widened [19]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Supply - As of October 12, 19 ships departed from New Zealand in October, with 15 going to mainland China and 4 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for lightering. It is expected that 19 ships will arrive in October and 0 in November, with an expected arrival of 1.75 million cubic meters in October [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: As of the week of October 10, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 12600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 4600 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 8600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 5800 cubic meters) [6][13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1181800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 26000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 405100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 34300 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 357400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 52400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 118500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 5000 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2062800 cubic meters, an increase of 39100 cubic meters compared with the previous week [6][13] 3.3 Market Trends - As of October 17, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 804 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 2.1% compared with the previous week. The market showed a weak - oscillating trend, and the contango spread further widened. The 11 - 01 spread was - 31.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 11 - 03 spread was - 31 yuan/cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 spread was 0.5 yuan/cubic meter [19] 3.4 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rates**: As of the week of October 19, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2069 points, an increase of 133 points (+6.9%) compared with the previous week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.4% compared with the previous week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, an increase of 12.9% compared with the previous week. The US dollar index oscillated weakly. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.06% week - on - week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.2% to 1.744 [6][55][56]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock sector is moderately bullish [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic log market has shown a situation of stable supply and demand recently. The overall price trend is stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand shows a differentiated performance. As the peak - season demand is gradually released, the spot price has strong support, but the hedging pressure when the 11 - contract approaches the delivery month should be watched out for [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The log futures price declined. The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 803.0 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 2.19% [1] Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous week [1] - As of August 15, the weekly arrival volume of domestic softwood logs was 33.9 million cubic meters, a decrease of 16.65 million cubic meters from the previous week [1] - The average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 6.33 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.09 million cubic meters from the previous week [1] Market Logic - The domestic log market shows a stable supply - demand situation. The prices in Shandong and Jiangsu are stable. The supply is expected to increase to 55.05 million cubic meters due to holiday factors. The demand is differentiated: the daily shipment in Shandong has slightly decreased, and the purchase volume in Jiangsu has declined. The inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 6.97 million cubic meters, while that in Shandong increased slightly by 0.8 million cubic meters [1] Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract will fluctuate [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of mainstream delivery products of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained flat compared to last week, and European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of September 7, there were 10 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 6 going to mainland China and 4 going to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 10 ships will arrive in September and 0 in October, with an expected arrival volume of 1.21 million cubic meters in September [5]. - As of the week of September 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port decreased by 0.08 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port decreased by 0.03 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 0.67 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. - As of the week of September 14, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.7% week - on - week, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.8%, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.2%. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% [6]. - As of September 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 decreased by 1.1% compared to last week, and the monthly spread tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - The prices of mainstream radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 745 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 765 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 850 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 785 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 7, 10 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 6 bound for mainland China and 4 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea. It is expected that 10 ships will arrive in September and 0 in October, with an expected arrival volume of 1.21 million cubic meters in September [5]. - Provided the specific shipping schedule data of New Zealand logs, including departure time, load, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 1.68 million cubic meters (down 0.08 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port was 1.12 million cubic meters (down 0.03 million cubic meters week - on - week) [6][12]. - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1279 million cubic meters (down 0.0224 million cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port's was about 0.4407 million cubic meters (up 0.0111 million cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou Port's was about 0.3726 million cubic meters (up 0.0216 million cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port's was about 0.1021 million cubic meters (down 0.017 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0433 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.0067 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 798 yuan/cubic meter, a 1.1% decrease from last week. The monthly spread tended to narrow, with the 11 - 01 monthly spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 11 - 03 at - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 at - 6 yuan/cubic meter [18]. Price and Spread - Provided the spot price data of logs and downstream construction timber, showing that most prices remained stable compared to last week [21][23]. - Presented the regional price differences of mainstream timber species between Shandong and Jiangsu, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [24][26]. - Showed the price differences between different tree species and specifications, such as the difference between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine [38][39]. Other - Analyzed other price - influencing factors, including freight rates and exchange rates. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.7% week - on - week, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.8%, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.2%. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% [52][53].