交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 每日观点 利多：原油成本相对高位，略有支撑。 利空：高价货源需求不足；整体需求下行，欧美经济衰退预期加强。 主要逻辑：供应端来看，供给压力仍处高位；需求端来看，复苏乏力。 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131 2万吨 环比增 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅18 2% 同比降幅6 . , | 5% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为26 4262% 环比减少 . 。 . ， | | | | | 4 37个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货2 ...

沥青期货早报 2025年11月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131 2万吨 环比增 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅18 2% 同比降幅6 . , | 5% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为26 4262% 环比减少 . 。 . ， | | | | | 4 37个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货24 555万吨 环比增加15 28% 样本企业产量为 ， . . , | | | | | 44 1万吨 环比减少14 . ， | 20% 样本企业装置检修量预估为95 8万吨 环比增加 . . ， , | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is expected to decrease as refineries have reduced production recently. The current demand is below the historical average level, and the overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The cost is expected to strengthen in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices, and the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Specifically, the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The output of sample enterprises was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average level, and the asphalt processing loss has increased [8]. - **Basis**: On November 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. Social inventory continued to decline, while in - plant and port inventories continued to increase [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Due to the reduction in refinery production, the supply pressure has decreased. The demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. With the rising crude oil prices, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term, and the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts on the previous day, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on weekly inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price was 3032 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices of asphalt in different regions [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, which can assist in analyzing the relative price relationships among different energy products [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the price changes of asphalt in the Shandong region [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025, which helps in understanding the profit differences between different asphalt - related products [42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report presents the historical price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **开工率**: The report presents the historical weekly 开工率 of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and factory inventory (54 sample enterprises) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical inventory ratio of factory inventory from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [86][90][93]. - **Asphalt 开工率**: It shows the historical 开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream 开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [96][99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refinery has reduced production recently to ease supply pressure, and the supply pressure may decrease next week. The overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The inventory remains stable, and the cost support from crude oil strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3008 - 3056 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of national sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The sample enterprise output was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 34%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries was 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48% [8]. - **Basis**: On November 17, the spot price in Shandong was 3020 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 12 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The port - diluted asphalt inventory was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3008 - 3056 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The document provides the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18][19] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The document shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [22][23] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 are provided [28][29][30] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown [32][34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The document shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [38][39] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 are shown [41][42][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are provided [44][45] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical port inventories of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are presented [46][47] - **Output**: The historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown [49][50] - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are provided [53][55] - **Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical output trends of refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [56][57] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 are shown [59][60] - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: The historical estimated trends of maintenance losses from 2018 to 2025 are provided [61][62] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 are presented [64][65][66] - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social and in - plant inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown [68][69] - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trends of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 are provided [71][72] - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [74][75] - The historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 are shown [77][78][79] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 are provided [80][81] - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [83][84] - **Downstream Demand** - The historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are shown [86][87][88] - The historical sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are provided [90][91][92] - The historical monthly working - hour trends of excavators from 2020 to 2025 are presented [94] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - The historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown [95][96] - The historical capacity utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [98][99] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation** - The historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are provided [100][101][103] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, port - diluted asphalt inventory, and downstream demand [105][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with refineries increasing production recently, which is expected to further increase supply pressure next week. The planned total production of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points [7]. - The overall demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The construction of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes is all below the historical average, although there are slight increases in some areas [7]. - The cost of asphalt is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47% [7]. - The inventory of asphalt is decreasing. The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; and the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33% [7]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The price of asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3143 - 3189 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the cost is supported by high - level crude oil. The overall fundamentals are considered slightly positive [7]. - **Likely factors**: High - level crude oil costs provide some support [10]. - **Negative factors**: High - priced asphalt has insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 09 contracts, have declined to varying degrees compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 contract price is 3166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan or 0.85% from the previous value [15]. - The basis of the 01 contract is - 26 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [7]. - The inventory shows a downward trend, including social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory [7][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt bases from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main contract spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [20][21]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [23][24]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025, providing a reference for relative value analysis [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profits from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [39][40][41]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the supply situation [42][43]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, helping to understand the inventory situation of raw materials [44][45]. - **Production volume**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the overall supply capacity [47][48]. - **Marr crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Marr crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the production capacity of local refineries [53][54]. - **开工率**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly asphalt production capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the industry [56][57]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: The report shows the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025, helping to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the inventory situation in the futures market [61][62][64]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025, helping to understand the overall inventory situation [65][66]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The report presents the historical trends of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management of enterprises [68][69]. - **Import and export situation**: - The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025, helping to understand the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [71][72][75]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the demand for related products in the asphalt industry [77][78]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - **Downstream demand**: - The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the impact of infrastructure construction on asphalt demand [83][84][85]. - The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [87][88][91]. - **Asphalt construction rate**: - The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt construction rates from 2019 to 2025, which is important for analyzing the demand for asphalt in different application scenarios [92][93][96]. - **Downstream construction situation**: - The report presents the historical trends of the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the demand for asphalt in the downstream industries [97][98][100]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand, which is useful for comprehensively analyzing the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year-on-year. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 33.0777%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points from the previous week. The overall demand is below the historical average level, and the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the strengthening expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. In terms of demand, the current demand is below the historical average. In terms of cost, the daily processing profit of asphalt increased by 30.70% compared with the previous period, the loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the spot price in Shandong was 3280 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 6 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory and factory inventory continued to be destocked, while port inventory continued to accumulate, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, showing a bullish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [17]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [20]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [23]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt with SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [26]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the price ratio trend of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [30]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the profit trend of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [39]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [44]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [51]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the asphalt production of refineries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [54]. - **开工率**: The report shows the weekly utilization rate of asphalt production capacity, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [59]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the situation of exchange warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [62]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the trends of social inventory and factory inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [66]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [69]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [72]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the import spread trend of Korean asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [77]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the production of petroleum coke, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [81]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [84]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [88]. - **Asphalt Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Utilization Rate**: The report shows the utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [93]. - **Asphalt Utilization Rate by Purpose**: The report shows the utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [96]. - **Downstream Utilization Situation**: The report shows the utilization rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [98]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103].

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - Asphalt follows the decline of crude oil. After the holiday, the shipment volume increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China [4]. - The supply of asphalt increased slightly, with the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises reaching 35.8% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [4]. - The demand showed a month - on - month increase. The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [4]. - The spot price of asphalt continued to decline under pressure. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt this period was 3,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous period [4]. Summary by Directory Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate slightly increased due to the rotation to produce residue oil and shutdown for maintenance at some refineries, and the intermittent production at some main refineries in East China and Jiangsu Xinhai [4]. - Demand: The shipment volume increased month - on - month. Both factory and social inventories showed a destocking trend. The actual trading atmosphere was average in East China, and low - priced resources in social inventories were given priority [4]. - Valuation: The spot price of asphalt continued to decline, with the price range widening. All 7 regional prices decreased, with the largest decline of 4.2% in North China [4]. - Strategy: No specific strategies for unilateral, inter - period, or inter - variety trading were provided [4]. Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields [7]. - Futures: The disk price and trading volume of asphalt futures are presented, along with the comparison of Brent, WTI, and SC prices [11]. - Spot: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, as well as the price differences between regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - Spread: The basis and inter - month spread of asphalt are presented, including the basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, etc. [14][15][16] Fundamental Data - Demand: The consumption of asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, etc. The shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 2.9% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% [20][24]. - Supply: The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons (2.7%) week - on - week and an increase of 139,000 tons (29.0%) year - on - year. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses decreased by 2.1% [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, but refineries have recently reduced production to alleviate supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, and the weakening of crude oil prices will lead to a short - term weakening of cost support. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38%. The sample enterprise output was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. Refineries have reduced production, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 34.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the开工 rate of construction asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, unchanged from the previous month. All are below the historical average levels, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; inventory is neutral with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing; the disk is bearish as the MA20 is downward and the 11 - contract futures price is below the MA20; the main position is bullish as the main position is net long but the long position is decreasing. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 12 contracts, showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 - contract price decreased by 57 yuan to 3248 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.72%. In terms of inventory, social inventory decreased by 1.31% to 1058,000 tons, factory inventory increased by 6.48% to 690,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 7.69% to 120,000 tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is important for spread trading strategies [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the price dynamics in the spot market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for refineries to make production decisions [38][39][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the supply situation in the market [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical inventory of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the supply of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply capacity [46][47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the production activity level [56][57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the delivery and storage of futures contracts [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025, which reflects the overall inventory situation in the market [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of factories [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73][76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industries [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: It presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which helps to analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84][85][86][88][89][90][91][92]. - **Asphalt 开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate, asphalt 开工 rate by use, and downstream 开工 situation (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt 开工 rate, road - modified asphalt 开工 rate, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt 开工 rate) from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production activity level of the asphalt industry [93][94][96][97][98][100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 - September 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of asphalt valuation in the second half of the year is likely. The current independent refinery operation rate is at a low level, with limited room for further decline. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak oscillation of the cost - side crude oil will also limit the upward space of the unilateral price of asphalt [16]. - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is small, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents the recent trend of the asphalt main contract, showing the price changes from January to October 2025, and analyzes the impact of supply - demand and cost factors on the price [13][14]. - **Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment** - **Supply**: Import is expected to remain low. Major refineries are expected to resume some operations, restricting the upward movement of asphalt valuation. However, the significant recovery of local refineries is needed for the valuation to decline, and local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short and medium term [16]. - **Demand**: The demand - side operation rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected. The infrastructure peak season has passed, and the overall demand is expected to be flat [16]. - **Cost**: The upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the gradual increase in production by OPEC, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Shale oil will play a bottom - supporting role, and there is no continuous trend market [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment** - **Supply**: The production rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to decline, and imports are expected to remain low due to geopolitical factors [17]. - **Demand**: The operation rates of all demand - side segments are weak, especially the waterproofing membrane sector [17]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory shows difficulty in destocking, and the social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation, with the total domestic inventory accumulating more than expected [17]. - **Cost**: The crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, as the current oil price has entered the break - even price range of some U.S. shale oil production areas [17]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, East China, and North China regions [20][23][24][26]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [31]. - **Term Structure**: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contract months [34][35]. 3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, the production profit of Shandong asphalt, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price [41][44][47]. - **Import**: It includes the import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume from different countries of asphalt, as well as the import volume of diluted asphalt [49][50][56]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It presents the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [59]. - **Refinery Profit**: It shows the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke [62][65]. 4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [70]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the asphalt warehouse receipt volume and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main contract [73]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: It analyzes the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [77]. 5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [81][83][87]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: It presents the operation rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membranes, etc. [92][93][95]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [97][100][107]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators [108]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the fixed - asset investment completion rate and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [114]. 6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [122][123][125]. 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It briefly describes the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [130]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: It classifies asphalt from production process and usage perspectives, indicating that straight - run asphalt has the largest production share and is mainly used for road construction, and asphalt is mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [133].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The refinery's recent production schedule has increased, raising supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, crude oil prices are rising, and cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3445 - 3487 [7]. - Bullish factor: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [9]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint - **Supply side**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 312600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The sample enterprise output was 701000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.49%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 601000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.02%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand side**: The construction start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of road - modified asphalt was 31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of waterproofing membranes was 35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 659.68 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices are rising, and it is expected that cost support will strengthen in the short term [7]. - **Basis**: On September 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 34 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.105 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. Factory inventory was 658000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 15000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5%. Social inventory continued to decline, factory inventory continued to accumulate, and port inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Main positions**: The net long position of the main players increased, showing a bullish situation [7]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and other data of various asphalt contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on inventory, production, start - up rate, etc. For example, the price of the 01 - contract increased by 0.18% compared with the previous value; the weekly start - up rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 41.64% compared with the previous value [14]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17]. 4. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - contract spread**: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [19][20]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [22][23]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the cracking spread trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [25][26][27]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, fuel oil price ratio trend**: It shows the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relative price relationships among these products [29][31]. 5. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Prices in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [32][33]. 6. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [34][35]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profit from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profit differences between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the sales situation of asphalt [41][42]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It shows the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply of asphalt [46][47]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It shows the historical price trends of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **Start - up rate**: It shows the historical weekly start - up rate trends of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the asphalt industry [56][57]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: It shows the historical estimated trends of asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is important for understanding the overall inventory situation [61][62][63]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory structure [65][66]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management efficiency of factories [68][69]. - **Import - export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [71][72]. - **South Korean asphalt import spread trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the cost advantage of imported asphalt [74][75][76]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for petroleum - related products [77][78]. - **Apparent consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction**: It shows the historical investment trends in highway construction from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the infrastructure - related demand for asphalt [83][84]. - **New local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt start - up rate**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93]. - **Asphalt start - up rate by use**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [95][96]. - **Downstream start - up situation**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproof - membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in different downstream applications [98][99][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of asphalt from January 2024 - September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand relationship [103][104].