Core Viewpoint - The industry is expected to stabilize in 2024, with a recovery in macro expectations following the potential Geneva Agreement between China and the U.S. in 2025, leading to an upward cycle in non-ferrous metal prices and industry performance [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - The price and performance of non-ferrous metals are anticipated to rise due to supply chain disruptions and liquidity easing, establishing a new upward cycle [1] - Copper supply constraints continue, with limited new projects and effective production disruptions, while demand from traditional sectors eases and new sectors like renewable energy and data centers emerge [1] - The price of copper is expected to rise as liquidity improves with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Precious Metals - A bullish trend for gold is likely to continue, driven by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, which will increase global gold ETF purchases [1] - The growing U.S. debt and concerns over credit issues are expected to lead to increased gold purchases by central banks and private investors, supporting mid-term price increases [1] Energy Metals - The price of cobalt is expected to rise due to supply constraints from Congo's export quota management and limited new supply from Indonesia, alongside increasing demand from electric vehicles and consumer electronics [1] - The supply-demand gap for cobalt is projected to widen from 2025 to 2026, indicating a clear upward trend in prices [1] Rare Metals - The strategic value of rare earth metals is increasing, with a favorable supply-demand balance due to stable traditional demand and emerging new demands [2] - Domestic supply controls are strengthening, enhancing industry concentration and monopolistic positions, which is likely to push prices upward and improve profitability for magnetic material companies [2] Investment Strategy - Focus on three areas: 1) Continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will drive global gold ETF purchases, benefiting gold prices [3] 2) Ongoing copper supply shortages and new demand from AI data centers will support copper price increases [3] 3) Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply restrictions from Congo and depleting domestic inventories [3]

Core Viewpoints - The report from China Galaxy highlights a positive outlook for cobalt prices due to the implementation of annual export quota management in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which dominates global cobalt supply [1][2] - The report anticipates a recovery in the non-ferrous metals industry starting in 2025, driven by macroeconomic improvements and supply chain disruptions, leading to a new upward cycle in metal prices and industry performance [1][2] - The gold market is expected to continue its bullish trend, supported by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased global demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The industry is projected to stabilize in 2024, with a recovery in macroeconomic expectations following the Geneva Agreement between the US and China, leading to improved performance in 2025 [1][2] - The combination of US tariffs, China's countermeasures, and resource control policies from other countries will continue to disrupt supply chains, contributing to rising prices and profitability in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2] Precious Metals - The report suggests that the gold bull market is likely to persist, driven by continued liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve and increasing purchases of gold by global central banks and private investors [1][2] - The acceleration of US debt growth and potential challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence may exacerbate credit issues, prompting a shift towards gold in asset allocation [1][2] Industrial Metals - The narrative surrounding copper supply remains positive, with ongoing production disruptions and limited new projects expected to maintain upward pressure on copper prices [2][3] - Demand for copper is expected to benefit from macroeconomic improvements and structural demand from sectors like renewable energy and data centers [2][3] Energy Metals - The DRC's new export quota management is anticipated to create upward price elasticity for cobalt, as global supply shortages become more apparent [2][3] - The demand for cobalt is expected to grow due to the high-end electric vehicle market and increased military and strategic reserve needs [2][3] Rare Metals - The strategic value of rare earth metals is increasing, with stable long-term demand and new applications emerging in robotics and low-altitude economies [3] - Domestic supply controls are expected to enhance the global monopoly position of China's rare earth industry, leading to improved profitability for rare earth enterprises [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and Northern Rare Earth, based on the anticipated upward trends in gold, copper, cobalt, and rare earth prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to stabilize after hitting bottom in 2024, with a new upward cycle anticipated in 2025 due to macroeconomic improvements, supply chain disruptions, and liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - The bull market for gold is likely to continue, driven by the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts and potential balance sheet expansion, which will increase global gold ETF purchases and push up gold prices [1] - The acceleration of U.S. debt growth and potential challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence may exacerbate U.S. credit issues, prompting global central banks and private investors to increase gold holdings [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The narrative around copper supply constraints continues, with limited new copper mining projects and concentrated smelting capacity, leading to persistent supply tightness [2] - Demand for copper is expected to improve due to reduced pressure from traditional sectors and structural demand growth from the energy transition and data centers, resulting in a favorable supply-demand balance [2] Group 3: Energy Metals - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a key supplier of cobalt, is implementing annual export quotas, which will create a supply gap as new projects in Indonesia cannot fully compensate [3] - The demand for cobalt is anticipated to rise due to the high-end electric vehicle market and recovery in consumer electronics, with a widening supply-demand gap expected by 2025-2026 [3] Group 4: Rare Metals - The strategic value of rare earths is increasing, with stable long-term demand from traditional sectors and emerging needs from robotics and low-altitude economies [4] - Domestic supply controls are tightening, enhancing industry concentration and strengthening the global monopoly position of China's rare earth industry, leading to a steady increase in rare earth prices [4] Investment Recommendations - Gold prices are expected to rise due to increased purchases by global central banks and investors, with a recommendation for China National Gold Group (600489) [4] - Copper prices are projected to continue rising due to supply constraints and new demand from AI data centers, recommending Zijin Mining (601899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) [4] - Cobalt prices are set to increase due to supply restrictions from the DRC, recommending Huayou Cobalt (603799) [4] - Rare earth prices are expected to stabilize and improve profitability for companies in the sector, recommending Northern Rare Earth (600111) [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zhaojin Mining's growth path is being continuously validated, with strong financial results for the first half of 2025, showcasing robust fundamentals and growth momentum [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhaojin Mining achieved revenue of 6.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.69%, and net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 160.44% to 1.44 billion yuan [1] - The company's gold production reached 10,235.63 kilograms, representing a growth of approximately 13.77% compared to the same period last year [2] Segment Revenue - The gold mining segment generated revenue of 6.164 billion yuan, an increase of 44.4% year-on-year, while the copper mining segment earned 224 million yuan, up 31.6% [3] - Other business segments saw revenue growth of 209.5%, totaling 585 million yuan [3] Profitability - Zhaojin Mining's gross profit for the first half of the year was 3.05 billion yuan, a 54.31% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 43.74%, up 1.02 percentage points from the previous year [4] Market Environment - The gold market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the London spot gold price reaching 3,302.96 USD per ounce by the end of June, a 25.8% increase from the beginning of the year [2] - The average gold price for the first half of the year was 3,077 USD per ounce, up 39.48% year-on-year [2] Growth Drivers - Zhaojin Mining is focusing on enhancing production efficiency and resource allocation, with ongoing projects like the Haiyu Gold Mine expected to significantly contribute to future production [8] - The company has also expanded its global resource network through acquisitions in Africa, which will further bolster its performance [8] Market Outlook - The current gold price trend is expected to continue, driven by geopolitical factors and central bank policies, with predictions of gold prices potentially reaching 4,500 USD per ounce in the coming years [5] - Zhaojin Mining's strong performance and optimistic outlook have led to a significant increase in its market capitalization, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 100% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The growth path of Zhaojin Mining (01818) is being continuously validated, with the release of its 2025 interim report showcasing strong fundamentals and growth momentum [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Zhaojin Mining achieved revenue of 6.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.69%, and net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 160.44% to 1.44 billion yuan [1] - The company completed gold production of 10,235.63 kilograms, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 13.77% [2] - The gold mining segment generated revenue of 6.164 billion yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year, while copper mining revenue reached 224 million yuan, an increase of 31.6% [3] Market Environment - The gold market has seen significant inflows due to factors such as U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases, with gold prices reaching historical highs [2] - As of June 30, the London spot gold closing price was $3,302.96 per ounce, up 25.8% from the beginning of the year [2] Growth Drivers - Zhaojin Mining is focusing on "optimal production, increased production, and enhanced efficiency" to strengthen production operations and accelerate capacity release [2] - The company is advancing multiple projects, including the Haiyu Gold Mine, which is expected to produce over 15 tons of gold annually upon full production [8] - The company has also expanded its global resource network through acquisitions in Africa, which will contribute positively to its performance [8] Future Outlook - The long-term upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue, driven by factors such as the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the shift in global asset allocation away from the U.S. dollar [5] - Zhaojin Mining's strong performance and optimistic outlook have attracted investor interest, with its market value increasing by over 100% since the beginning of the year [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, with the policy adjustment and the continuous listing of high-quality assets driving the index up, reflecting the improvement of market liquidity and the trend of value revaluation [3][4] - After the A-share market turns into an incremental market following the Hong Kong stock market, and with the stabilization of trade war expectations and the end of the interim report season in August, a sectoral market may form again [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Last week, the four stock index futures varieties continued to rise across the board, with CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showing relatively strong performance. Most of the basis of the four stock index futures varieties was in the mode of futures discount [2] - The A-share market continued to rise last week, with the CSI All-Share Index rising more than 1% for three consecutive weeks, and the trading volume remaining at a relatively high level. The financial industry represented by banks, securities, and insurance showed relatively weak performance, but its previous large gains and temporary adjustment helped relieve the liquidity pressure on other small and medium-sized sectors [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to gradually turn into an incremental market after the Hong Kong stock market. With the stabilization of trade war expectations and the end of the interim report season in August, a sectoral market may form again [3] - Policy adjustment and the continuous listing of high-quality assets drive the index up, reflecting the improvement of market liquidity and the trend of value revaluation. The current low-valued manufacturing sector may be boosted by the inflow of incremental funds [4]

Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results on July 18, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.05% to reach a new historical high, marking five consecutive weeks of gains [1][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.32%, while the S&P 500 saw a slight decrease of 0.01% [4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 0.6%, with an intraday rise exceeding 2% [1][8] Notable Stocks - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with significant gains including a 31% increase for Linklogis and over 8% for Hesai Technology [8] - Tesla's stock rose by over 3%, while Nvidia reached a new historical high during the day but closed down by 0.34% [5][6] Commodity Market - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up by 0.30% to $3355.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up by 0.32% to $38.425 per ounce [2][13] - The week saw a cumulative decline in gold prices of 0.25% and a 1.36% decline in silver prices [13] Economic Insights - Citic Securities indicated that the US dollar lacks a strong basis for long-term appreciation, with a continuing trend of "de-dollarization" and a rising preference for non-US assets [11] - The outlook for gold prices may follow a "stair-step" upward pattern due to increasing expectations for interest rate cuts and growing uncertainties in the global economic and political landscape [13]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a mixed performance on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to 3519.65 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.11% and 0.45% respectively, with a total market turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) has seen a cumulative increase of 5.36% over the past three weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by nearly 1% [1] - Several companies reported impressive half-year earnings forecasts, with Huahong Technology's net profit expected to increase by over 3000% year-on-year, and other companies like Te Yi Pharmaceutical, Qianfang Technology, and Aerospace Science and Technology projected net profit increases exceeding 1000% [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading company selection, covering all 35 sub-sectors and integrating both value and growth attributes [2] - The A500 ETF is overweight in new productivity sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy equipment compared to the CSI 300, providing a natural "barbell" investment strategy [2]

Market Overview - The trend of "de-dollarization" is strengthening, leading to a preference for non-USD assets, with Asian equities being steadily revalued[6] - The A-share market is heating up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to 3,519 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.11% and 0.45% respectively[17] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.26% and 0.52% respectively, although market sentiment remains cautious[11] Commodity and Forex Insights - International oil prices fell by 2%, with NYMEX crude down 2.15% to $66.98 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.63% to $69.21 per barrel[28] - The US dollar index slightly increased by 0.2%, while gold prices experienced a minor decline[28] - The Chinese yuan appreciated by 1.8% year-to-date against the US dollar, closing at 7.172[27] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 30-year yield approaching 5%[5] - Asian bond markets showed cautious sentiment initially but improved later, with Chinese investment-grade bond spreads narrowing by 1-2 basis points[31] - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds reached its highest level since 2008, reflecting market concerns ahead of upcoming elections[31] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as energy and utilities saw gains of 1.5% and 0.8% respectively, while real estate declined by 0.9%[17] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong rose by 2.4%, while the financial sector remained flat[12] Key Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is set to be released, which may influence market expectations regarding interest rates[5] - China's foreign currency deposits exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in over three years, indicating a strong capital inflow[6]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices experienced fluctuations in June, initially declining due to weak demand and increased supply, but rebounded later in the month driven by improved macro sentiment and disruptions in overseas smelters [2] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The US dollar index has seen a significant decline since the beginning of the year, dropping to around 97, which has positively impacted dollar-denominated commodities [3] - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with potential cuts anticipated within the year [3] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, particularly in the Israel-Palestine conflict, leading to stabilization in oil prices [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global zinc mine production in April was 1.0192 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.6% month-on-month but an increase of 9.7% year-on-year [4] - Domestic zinc concentrate production in May rose by 9.2% month-on-month to 325,000 tons, while cumulative production from January to May saw a year-on-year decline of 3.4% [4] - Zinc processing fees have been rising, with July's average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate increasing by 200 RMB per ton to 3,850 RMB per ton [4] Group 3: Domestic Production Expectations - China's refined zinc production in May was 583,000 tons, a slight increase from April but a year-on-year decline of 2.3% [5] - The expectation for increased domestic refined zinc production is strong due to improved smelter profits and reduced maintenance schedules [5] - The import of refined zinc has decreased slightly to 26,700 tons in May, with a cumulative decline of 16.65% year-on-year for the first five months [5] Group 4: Inventory and Pricing Trends - LME zinc inventory has decreased from 195,000 tons in mid-April to 119,000 tons, indicating a tightening supply [6] - Domestic refined zinc inventory initially increased but has since decreased, remaining at lower levels compared to previous years [6] - The current market shows a narrowing of the LME 0-3 zinc spot premium, which has implications for potential warehouse risks similar to those seen in copper [6] Group 5: Demand Conditions - The demand for zinc remains weak due to seasonal factors, with processing enterprises experiencing declining operating rates [7] - The operating rate for galvanizing enterprises dropped to 56.21%, indicating reduced orders and production [7] - Overall, construction and manufacturing sectors are showing signs of weakness, with real estate and infrastructure investment growth slowing [7] Group 6: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of a weak dollar, easing geopolitical risks, and expectations of Fed rate cuts has led to a recovery in the non-ferrous metals market [8] - The supply side remains relatively loose due to steady production from both domestic and international mines, while smelter profits are recovering [8] - Despite the positive macro factors, the seasonal demand weakness and inventory dynamics suggest a cautious outlook for zinc prices [8]