【邀请诺贝尔奖、图灵奖得主、两院院士、各行业专家，请联系五洲名家智库】 《财经》年会2025预测与战略暨2024全球财富管理论坛于12月13日—15日在北京举行。清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长李稻葵应邀出席，并以"名 义GDP回升+重点城市楼市企稳"为主线，给出2025年宏观走势四大判断，为仍处于政策观望期的房地产与资本市场注入确定性。 一、把"5%"写进预期：名义GDP目标首次被量化 李稻葵测算，2024年首三季度名义增速仅4.02%，与7%潜在水平缺口逾2.5个百分点，2025年只要物价回暖、PPI转正，即可推升名义GDP重返5%以上。该数 值当天即被多家券商采入年度策略报告，成为投资时钟的"基准锚"。 二、"北上广转稳"定音：一线城市限购退出获学术背书 他明确预判，北京、上海、广州、成都将于明年大面积取消限购，标志着"市场底"先于"政策底"出现。话音落地，A股地产指数午后放量拉升2.8%，人民币 地产股离岸反弹3.1%，资本市场用真金白银为"转折年"投票。 三、股市盈利锚上移：名义增速→企业利润→估值修复 李稻葵指出，名义GDP每回升1个百分点，上市板块整体盈利可增厚约800亿元，对应全A市盈率扩 ...

中美两国经济增速到底谁更快？这个话题放在五年前根本不算话题。 2021到2024年，国内受三年疫情和经济恢复影响，物价很疲软，每年 CPI 同比涨幅也就0.1%、0.2%、0.3%，特别低。 2001年中国加入 WTO 后，经济增速在全球主要经济体里几乎是最快的，和美国比起来优势明显，大家很容易达成共识，没什么好讨论的。 但2021年之后，不管是官方数据还是专家讨论，都能看出中国相对美国的经济增速好像慢下来了，这背后的真相是什么？ 先看数据。比较两国经济，通常要折算成统一货币，国际上常用美元。2021年，中国 GDP 折算成美元后，大概是美国的76%多，快到77%了。 这是二战后单一国家或经济体的经济规模最接近美国的水平 —— 之前美国的竞争对手，比如上世纪的苏联和日本，日本 GDP 最高时也才到美国的近一半， 苏联甚至只有美国的40%多。 能到76%、77%的比重，对美国确实有一定压力，当时国内情绪也比较高涨，大家觉得按这个节奏，中国追上甚至超过美国，可能在2030年前就能实现。 可从2021年到2024年，三年过去了。这期间经历了疫情，中国经济增速虽说还有韧性，每年公布的增长数据也比美国高。 但到2024 ...

说起中美经济，总让人觉得像在比谁的钱包鼓囊囊，可一深挖，就发现数字背后藏着不少弯弯绕。2024年，美国GDP折合美元是29.1万亿，中国则是18.94万 亿，差距足足10万亿出头。 这数字一看，美国稳坐头把交椅，可要是换个角度，用购买力平价算账，情况就翻转了。中国早在2014年就靠这个方法超过美国，到2025年，国际货币基金 组织的预测显示，中国PPP GDP份额占全球19.68%，美国才14.75%，领先幅度拉大到10.2万国际美元。 为啥会有这种差距？汇率功不可没。2024年，人民币对美元平均汇率在7.1左右晃荡，比前几年弱了点，主要因为美联储加息，美元硬邦邦地顶上来。中国 出口企业咬牙顶着，贸易顺差还是创了纪录，近1万亿美元。 可这顺差在美元计价下，显得中国总量被压低了。要是回想2022年汇率那会儿，差距没这么夸张。现在呢，美国通胀率3.2%，中国控制在0.9%，物价稳稳 的，中国居民买东西实际能力强多了。世界银行的数据也摆在那，2024年中国PPP GDP是30.3万国际美元，美国25.4万，实体消费力不是吹的。 再说计算口径，这也挺有门道。中国侧重生产法，盯着实打实的工厂输出，2024年制造业增加值 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is not explicitly mentioned in the report regarding the bond market. However, the general tone seems to suggest a cautious view on the bond market, with potential risks and adjustments ahead [27]. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been weakening recently with a divergence in bond varieties. Both bulls and bears in the bond market are currently confused. The report presents multiple reasons for both bullish and bearish outlooks on the bond market and concludes that the risk in the bond market has not been eliminated, with potential for further adjustments within the year [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Reasons - **Bond Supply Mismatch in Q4**: This year, the fiscal bond issuance has been front - loaded, with the remaining quotas for national and local bonds in Q4 at 21.5% and 22.1% respectively, lower than last year's 26.3% and 30.5%. Q4 is also the insurance "opening - up" period, leading to increased allocation demand from insurance companies [7]. - **Favorable Economic Data**: The corporate loans in the social financing data have weakened for two consecutive months, and the economic data in August was generally weak. The production slowed down, with the industrial added - value growth rate in August at 5.2%, down 0.5pct from the previous month. The fixed - asset investment also slowed down. Weak economic data is beneficial for the bond market [8]. - **Monetary Policy and Treasury Bond Transactions**: With a weakening economy, weak social financing and credit, and the Fed's rate cut, there is an increased probability of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in Q4. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation by the central bank implies a potential rate cut. The discussion on government bond issuance management and central bank's treasury bond transactions also provides room for speculation [12]. Bearish Reasons - **Nominal GDP and Re - inflation**: The "anti - involution" policy has a positive impact on inflation. PPI has shown signs of bottoming out. Nominal GDP may rise due to the narrowing of the GDP deflator, which could be unfavorable for bond yields. Expectations of inflation are also increasing [16]. - **Mutual Fund Redemption Chain Reaction**: Due to weakening profitability and the potential redemption fee, mutual bond funds may face scale shrinkage, which could lead to liquidity and valuation spread pressures on certain bond varieties favored by mutual funds [20]. - **Weak Monetary Policy Coordination**: The monetary policy has not adjusted policy rates. To cooperate with the "anti - involution" policy, interest rates may not be further reduced. The desired growth rate of loans may decline, and the current interest rate level may be appropriate [23]. - **Sustained Breakthrough in the Equity Market**: The equity market has shifted from a situation of "no fundamental support" to "having performance support from specific sectors". This may lead to a long - term trend of capital flowing from the bond market to the equity market [24]. Outlook for Monday - Two news events, a news conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" and a positive phone call between the Chinese and US presidents, may boost risk appetite. The bond and equity markets are likely to have a "risk - on" trading pattern. The risk in the bond market has not been eliminated, and there is still room for adjustment within the year [27].

Market Stage Analysis - The current market has been in a bullish phase for nearly a year, driven by proactive monetary and fiscal policies, despite weak economic fundamentals reflected in declining PPI and nominal GDP [1][2] - The downtrend in PPI is nearing its end, indicating a potential turning point for economic recovery and corporate earnings growth in the coming year [2] Sector Focus: Technology Stocks - Market liquidity is strong, with funds gravitating towards sectors with solid fundamentals, particularly technology stocks, leading to significant sectoral divergence [3] - As PPI stabilizes and nominal GDP accelerates, broader market participation across various sectors is expected [3] Anti-Overwork Policy Opportunities - The anti-overwork policy is gaining traction, similar to past supply-side reforms, indicating a shift towards a more balanced economic model focusing on both production and consumption [4][5] - Industries with high entry barriers or oligopolistic structures are likely to benefit more from this policy, enhancing profit margins and performance [5] Market Capitalization Insights - Small-cap stocks have outperformed due to increased quantitative fund inflows, but traditional funds may shift focus towards mid and large-cap stocks as market conditions stabilize [6] Innovation Drug Sector - The innovation drug sector is experiencing robust growth, with record-high licensing agreements, indicating a strong fundamental trend [7] - However, some companies in this sector may face high valuations based on optimistic expectations, necessitating careful selection of fundamentally strong candidates [7] Military Industry Outlook - The military sector is showing signs of recovery, with companies returning to normal growth trajectories, presenting opportunities for investment in reasonably valued firms [8] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Certain areas within non-ferrous metals, particularly smelting, are benefiting from the anti-overwork policy, while resource segments are influenced by global liquidity and economic demand [9] Economic Data and Market Comparison - Current market conditions share similarities with 2015, characterized by liquidity-driven rallies and weak economic fundamentals, but lessons learned from past experiences may lead to a more stable market trajectory [10][11] Consumer Sector Analysis - The consumer sector faces challenges due to macroeconomic pressures, but supply-side adjustments and potential demand recovery could enhance performance in certain areas [12][13] Wealth Diversification and Stock Market - The trend of diversifying asset allocation among residents is expected to increase stock market participation, positioning it as a key vehicle for wealth accumulation [15] U.S. Monetary Policy and Dollar Outlook - Uncertainties remain regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with potential for a downward trend in the dollar due to expansive fiscal and monetary policies [15] U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market is primarily driven by top-tier companies, with a need to monitor employment trends and recession signals for future performance [16]

Economic Overview - The economy in July shows signs of weak recovery, with a potential trend of high-to-low performance throughout the year, indicating increased volatility due to external uncertainties[1] - The nominal GDP is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan, with limited elasticity in growth rates and GDP deflator index in the second half of the year[12] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.38%[14] - Manufacturing demand is recovering but showing signs of marginal slowdown, with the new orders index at 49.4%, indicating a decrease in manufacturing market demand[16] Consumer Spending - The retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June, with a notable decline of 1.1 percentage points[19] - Factors affecting retail sales include reduced funding for the "old-for-new" policy, which decreased from 162 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 138 billion yuan in the second half[21] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, which is below market expectations of 2.7%[29] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0%[29] Employment Trends - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, slightly up from the previous month, reflecting seasonal pressures from the graduation season[6] - Employment policies are being implemented to mitigate youth unemployment, including support for job creation in various sectors[6] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2% year-on-year, but July recorded a negative growth of -0.3%, the first negative reading since July 2020, primarily due to high base effects and uncertainties from trade tensions[45] - The overall investment environment remains cautious, with private investment declining by 1.5% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector[29]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has outperformed GDP growth for four consecutive quarters since Q3 2024, marking the first time since the second half of 2021[3] - The probability of the stock market outperforming GDP in China since 2000 is approximately 32%, with an average duration of about 6 quarters[4] - In contrast, the U.S. stock market has outperformed GDP over 60% of the time since 2000, indicating a stronger correlation between stock performance and economic growth in the U.S.[4] Group 2: Economic Context - The report emphasizes the importance of nominal GDP in the context of inflation and debt cycles, suggesting that nominal GDP reflects the economic value created across industries[3] - The analysis introduces a two-dimensional framework of real GDP and inflation, indicating that stock market outperformance is more likely during periods of "volume increase and price decrease" or "simultaneous volume and price increase"[4] - Historical examples show that when real GDP rises and the GDP deflator remains low, the probability and duration of stock market outperformance increase, as seen in the U.S. during the 1990s tech boom[7] Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Performance - The report identifies two main factors contributing to stock market outperformance: earnings expectations (E) and non-earnings factors (PE) such as market sentiment and liquidity[4] - In the current context, the A-share market's outperformance is notable due to significant re-inflation pressures, which is relatively rare based on historical precedents[5] - The report suggests that future market trends could follow two paths: a technology-driven slow growth route or a cyclical recovery route with rising real GDP and inflation[10]

Group 1 - The nominal GDP of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is projected to reach $456.3 billion by the end of Q4 2024, an increase from $442.3 billion at the end of Q4 2023, representing a growth rate of 3.3% [1] - Non-oil activities contribute 70.6% to the GCC's nominal GDP, while oil activities account for 29.4% [1]

Group 1 - Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI both showed a decline in July, with manufacturing PMI at 49.3 and non-manufacturing PMI at 50.1, indicating a seasonal slowdown slightly greater than historical averages [4][6] - The decline in orders was slightly greater than production, suggesting a transmission of slowdown from demand to supply, with new orders index at 49.4 and production index at 50.5 [6][7][8] - Despite the decline in quantity indicators, price indicators showed initial expansion, with raw material purchase price index rising by 3.1 points and factory price index rising by 2.1 points, indicating effective transmission from upstream to downstream [8][9] Group 2 - Business activity expectations reached a four-month high, with the PMI production activity expectation index at 52.6, suggesting a positive impact of price elasticity on business expectations as long as the contraction in quantity is manageable [11] - The construction industry showed a month-on-month decline, attributed to adverse weather conditions and pressures from real estate sales, with construction PMI at 50.6 and new orders index at 42.7 [12][13] - The Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell by 1.6 points to 47.7, reflecting a distribution of "declining sales, rising profits" consistent with the logic of slowing real GDP and improving nominal GDP [13][14] Group 3 - The EPMI, PMI, and BCI all pointed in the same direction, indicating a need to adjust investment strategies to focus on areas benefiting from nominal GDP improvement and structural policy cues [18]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI both showed a decline in July, indicating a seasonal slowdown that is slightly more pronounced than in previous years. The decline in orders is greater than that in production, suggesting a transmission of slowdown from demand to supply [1][4][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.3, down from 49.7, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.1, down from 50.5. The historical average for July over the past 5 and 10 years was -0.3 and -0.2 respectively, indicating this year's decline is slightly above seasonal norms [5][4]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4, lower than the previous 50.2, and the new export orders index was 47.1, down from 47.7 [6]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The slowdown in orders is attributed to several factors: a decrease in durable goods demand, with automotive retail sales dropping 19% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year; a decline in real estate sales, with a 21.2% year-on-year drop in transactions across 30 cities; and a potential contraction in production activities in some industrial sectors due to rising "anti-involution" sentiments [1][5]. Group 3: Price Indicators - Despite the decline in quantity indicators, price indicators showed initial expansion, with the raw material purchase price index and factory price index rising by 3.1 and 2.1 points respectively. This suggests that the "anti-involution" policy is starting to take effect and that there is some effective transmission from upstream to downstream [2][7][8]. - The production activity expectation index for July reached its highest level in four months at 52.6, indicating a positive correlation with nominal GDP as long as the contraction in quantity remains manageable [8]. Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction sector showed a decline, with the construction PMI at 50.6, down from 52.8. This decline is attributed to adverse weather conditions and pressures from real estate sales and fiscal spending on infrastructure [9][10]. - The new orders index for construction was 42.7, down from 44.9, indicating a weakening in demand within the sector [11]. Group 5: Business Confidence Index (BCI) - The BCI fell by 1.6 points from June, with a current value of 47.7. The index reflects a trend of "sales declining, profits rising," which aligns with the logic of slowing real GDP and improving nominal GDP [12][13]. - The forward-looking indices for consumer goods and intermediate goods prices unexpectedly declined, indicating that while short-term prices may rebound, the medium-term expectations for price increases are not yet solidified [12][15].