本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月15日，中金指美A港三地市场有季度切换脉络】2025年初以来，美A港三地市场呈季度维度切换 脉络，有"跷跷板"效应与跨市场映射联动。2026年如何在三地选择？中金从三方面分析：流动性上，港 股对美宽松更敏感，但跑赢需两地资金认为本地机会有限；基本面方面，美信用周期修复，中国震荡甚 至走弱，盈利美股好于A股好于港股；结构性主线方面，AI主线下短期硬件可见性好于应用，强周期A 股多，红利港股优。科技、分红、周期和消费四大板块情况：AI领域硬件短期确定性高于应用，前者A 股多后者港股多；分红上港股股息率高于A股，对内地险资等无红利税投资者有优势；周期关注一二季 度催化剂，来自美财政货币发力需求传导及国内PPI滞后回升交易窗口；国内信用周期震荡走弱，消费 修复斜率低。总结看，中金建议以红利和AI为底仓，A股硬件短期确定性高，港股应用需催化剂，短期 表现待产业催化或流动性改善；一季度重点关注强周期交易催化，有色、铝等领域A股多于港股，消费 板块缺基本面支撑。美股若财政和货币发力兑现，周期有望追科技，小盘股、金融股也值得关注。 ...

11月，A股市场在结构性机会中先扬后抑，最终未能有效突破3900点。但12个月的首个交易日，A股即继续维持反弹格局，并成功突破这一重要关口。 目前，据笔者观察，市场情绪整体稳定，资金仍在积极寻找新的方向，调仓换股、布局跨年行情成为当前市场的主旋律。那么，12月有哪些个股值得重点 关注？笔者从最新券商金股组合中梳理出三大主线，供大家参考。 当前仍在牛市中 今天，A股市场维持反弹格局，截至收盘，沪指报收3914.01点（见附图）。#a股持续高位震荡#十二月的第一天 更重要的是，在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，这意味着市场大方向或仍处在牛市中。不过短期 来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。 聚焦三大主线 板块方面，智能音响、MCU芯片、卫星互联网、6G、工业金属等热门概念涨幅居前，尤其是代表端侧AI赛道的智能音响大涨超5%。对此，笔者在上周五 的文章中已做过重要提醒，大家感兴趣的可以点击：《101天！这类公司正走出"隐形牛市"》。 往后看，A股的持续反弹仍值得期待。 牛犇 从11月调整原因来看，主要有美联储降 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of contrarian thinking, risk management, and market cycles, particularly during momentum divergence phases [1] - Contrarian thinking is linked to market cycles, suggesting that events will eventually reverse at certain stages, and it is crucial to think in reverse without doing so arbitrarily [1] - The current market situation shows signs of momentum divergence, with a peak divergence observed in September at the 60-minute level, followed by a daily level divergence, indicating a waning enthusiasm for buying despite new highs in stock prices [1][2] Group 2 - The article highlights the human tendency to ignore market cycle changes, as many investors remain optimistic even after significant market breaks, demonstrating a reluctance to acknowledge turning points [4] - The appropriate time to consider bullish positions again will be when a 60-minute level momentum bottom divergence occurs, which is currently not evident [4] - Investors are advised to wait for the occurrence of a 60-minute level divergence, as extreme pessimism among the crowd may signal a good opportunity to start buying [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that in 2026, both cyclical and growth factors will drive the main investment logic in the agricultural sector [1] Group 1: Cyclical Perspective - Due to market losses and administrative capacity reduction, capacity deconstruction may accelerate in Q4 2025 and the first half of 2026, leading to a potential upward fluctuation in pig prices in 2026 [1] - The report continues to recommend companies in the livestock and poultry industry that demonstrate strong operational capabilities and can withstand cyclical fluctuations [1] Group 2: Growth Perspective - The domestic demand for the pet sector remains robust, with strong momentum for domestic brands, potentially leading to high growth in H2 2026 [1] - In the fruit and vegetable planting sector, the blueberry market is expected to continue benefiting from ongoing advantages, with a focus on leading companies that are increasing planting area, improving planting efficiency, enhancing brand and channel development, and accelerating international expansion [1] - The functional sugar sector is anticipated to welcome a super sugar substitute product [1]

Group 1 - The "2025 China Consumption Intelligence Chain Innovation Summit" was held in Zhengzhou, focusing on new consumption, new manufacturing, and new supply chains, aiming to share new models and experiences while discussing industry chain collaborative innovation and the cultivation of new productive forces [1] - The summit emphasized the role of the capital market in empowering the growth and leap of enterprises in the consumption sector [1] Group 2 - Renowned economist Ma Guangyuan highlighted the importance of economic cycles, noting that a significant industry boom occurs approximately every ten years in China, with no industry remaining at the forefront indefinitely [3] - Ma pointed out that the transformation of industries and the transfer of wealth are prominent features of China's economic development, and individuals can change their fortunes by seizing opportunities within these cycles [3] - He stressed that while personal effort is important, recognizing and leveraging the opportunities presented by the era and cycles is crucial for wealth accumulation [3] - Ma indicated that the real estate cycle typically spans 18 to 20 years, with the marketization of China's real estate beginning in 1998, suggesting that the cycle's turning point likely occurred between 2018 and 2020 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall industry prosperity index continued to decline in October, but the rate of decline has slowed down, with improvements noted in essential consumption, midstream manufacturing, and large financial sectors, while TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) shows continued differentiation [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The essential consumption, midstream manufacturing, and large financial sectors are leading in terms of prosperity improvement [1] - The TMT sector continues to exhibit a mixed performance, indicating varying levels of recovery across different segments [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - A short-term "barbell" strategy is recommended, suggesting a balanced allocation across growth, cyclical, and dividend stocks [1] - Focus on identifying sectors with improving prosperity that have a degree of sustainability, as well as those with relatively low valuations and chip positions [1] - Potential recovery opportunities are highlighted in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, general automation, storage, military industry, and insurance [1] - Additionally, there is a suggestion to consider left-side positioning in certain consumer and service sectors, such as dairy products [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasting 43 days, market liquidity has improved, leading to a rebound in equity markets, with MSCI Emerging Markets up 0.29% and MSCI Developed Markets up 0.43% [10][11] - Commodity ETFs performed exceptionally well, with an average weekly increase of 2.95%, reflecting strong price movements in precious metals and oil [10][11] - The report notes a net inflow of 29.597 billion yuan into ETFs this week, with all types of ETFs experiencing varying degrees of inflow except for bond ETFs, which saw a slight outflow [11][12] Group 2 - The report indicates that the stock ETF indices with the highest returns are primarily in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and chemical sectors, while the technology growth sector has shown caution due to concerns over AI bubble narratives [16][18] - The report mentions that the bond ETF market is seeing a preference for interest rate bonds over credit bonds, with convertible bond ETFs showing an average weekly increase of 0.44% [20][21] - The report emphasizes that the high dividend yield of 5.5% for Hong Kong stocks, compared to a 3.69 percentage point spread over the 10-year government bond yield, makes them attractive to investors seeking stable returns in a low-interest environment [23]

Report Title - "Cycle, Technology, and Geopolitics: A Triple - Drive for the Non - Ferrous Metals Market" [1] Report Date and Researcher - Date: October 29, 2025 - Researcher: Ma Yun, mayun@cmschina.com.cn, contact number: 18682466799, qualification certificate number: Z0018708 [2] Table of Contents - 01 Cycle: Supply, Demand, and Liquidity - 02 Technology: Applications of Metals in Emerging Fields - 03 Geopolitics: Strategic Materials in the Context of Great - Power Rivalry - 04 Summary: A Triple - Hit under the Metal Pricing Framework [4] Core Views - The non - ferrous metals market is driven by the triple factors of cycle, technology, and geopolitics. The cycle affects the market from aspects of liquidity, supply, and demand; technology brings new demand through metal applications in emerging fields; geopolitics impacts metal prices through strategic material status and currency - related factors [1] Section Summaries Cycle: Supply, Demand, and Liquidity Liquidity - The Federal Reserve is in a rate - cutting cycle, and major economies are in a fiscal expansion period. For example, the U.S. has passed the Big Beautiful Act, discussing the end of balance - sheet reduction and facing a mid - term election next year; the EU Commission predicts that the EU's fiscal deficit rate will rise to 3.3% in 2025 and remain at this level in 2026, with the debt - to - GDP ratio rising from 83.2% in 2025 to 84.5% in 2026; Japan is preparing an economic stimulus plan of over 13.9 trillion yen, and advancing the defense - spending target; China is implementing fiscal expansion, shifting from loose money to loose credit [5][8][10] Supply - There is insufficient capital expenditure in the mining industry, natural decline in mine grades, and depletion of mine resources. This phenomenon is not limited to copper enterprises, and different metal varieties have different investment cycles [11][12] Demand - China provides the beta for metal demand, while emerging countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia provide the alpha. The demand for metals in new energy fields such as photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is also increasing [14][21][23] Technology: Applications of Metals in Emerging Fields - The report does not provide specific content in the given text Geopolitics: Strategic Materials in the Context of Great - Power Rivalry - The U.S. has updated its key mineral list several times. In 2025 (expected), it plans to add 6 minerals such as copper, potassium, silicon, and silver, and consider removing arsenic and tellurium. Some countries have high concentrations in metal production, like Chile and Peru accounting for about 40% of global copper production, and Congo accounting for 75% of global cobalt production. China has a high degree of dependence on most metals except rare earths. Also, the pricing currency hegemony is being challenged, leading to a decline in the trust of global fiat currencies and a re - evaluation of physical assets [24][27] Summary: A Triple - Hit under the Metal Pricing Framework - The report provides a metal pricing framework including factors such as stock price formula, metal price fluctuation formula, and considerations from macro, supply - demand, valuation, and market - behavior aspects, and finally gives trading strategies based on the analysis results [29]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of both external cycles and internal organization in determining a company's success, suggesting that understanding past actions is crucial for defining future outcomes [2][19] Group 1: Successful Companies in Favorable Conditions - Companies like Mixue Ice City thrive in a favorable environment characterized by industry benefits, strategic accuracy, and efficient execution, often referred to as "the right time, the right place, and the right people" [4] - Mixue Ice City's business model focuses on selling raw materials rather than franchise fees, resulting in the lowest opening costs among chain brands and achieving a gross margin and net margin that are among the highest in the new tea beverage industry [4] - The company's revenue is equivalent to the combined total of the second to fourth ranked competitors in the same sector, showcasing its unique profit model [4] Group 2: Companies Adapting to Market Changes - Pop Mart represents a contrasting approach, expanding globally rather than focusing on domestic market penetration, demonstrating a strong organizational capability to adapt to market demands [7] - The concept of "retail entertainment" is highlighted, indicating that companies must continuously innovate to remain relevant and capitalize on market opportunities [7] Group 3: Companies Facing Internal Challenges - Companies like Bottle Planet, known for its brand Jiangxiaobai, faced significant challenges due to a declining traditional liquor market but successfully pivoted to a "new liquor" strategy, launching new products to regain growth [8][9] - The implementation of the Danaher DBS model has been crucial for Bottle Planet's transformation, focusing on systematic improvements across various operational aspects [9][11] Group 4: Companies Struggling with Market Dynamics - Companies like Master Kong are experiencing external pressures from the rise of the takeout market, which has negatively impacted instant noodle sales, highlighting the challenges of adapting to changing consumer behaviors [16] - Three Squirrels, a former leader in the snack industry, struggles with an outdated business model and quality control issues, leading to significant revenue losses and a decline in market position [18]

Core Insights - The Hu-Shen 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index has shown a slight increase of 0.08% as of October 17, 2025, with notable gains from Agricultural Bank (+2.27%), China Merchants Highway (+1.27%), and others [1] - The 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300) has achieved a 0.22% increase, marking its seventh consecutive rise [1] - Recent liquidity data indicates a turnover rate of 1.42% for the ETF, with a trading volume of 69.38 million yuan, and its latest scale reached 4.879 billion yuan, a one-month high [4] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 205 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 167 million yuan [4] - Over the past five years, the ETF's net value has increased by 57.94%, ranking it 82nd out of 1021 index equity funds, placing it in the top 8.03% [4] - The maximum monthly return since inception was 13.89%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being five months and a maximum gain of 14.56% [4] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 6.56% over the past six months [4] Sector Analysis - According to Zheshang Securities, there is a noticeable rise in the financial and cyclical sectors, while the technology sector has weakened, suggesting a potential shift in market focus towards financials, cyclical stocks, and dividends [4] - Changjiang Securities highlights that the dividend sector holds greater allocation value during low-interest periods, with excess returns inversely correlated with government bond yields, which are currently at their lowest since 2002, indicating an opening for price appreciation in dividend assets [5] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hu-Shen 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index include China Shenhua, Shuanghui Development, Gree Electric, and others, collectively accounting for 35.84% of the index [5]