Report Title - "Cycle, Technology, and Geopolitics: A Triple - Drive for the Non - Ferrous Metals Market" [1] Report Date and Researcher - Date: October 29, 2025 - Researcher: Ma Yun, mayun@cmschina.com.cn, contact number: 18682466799, qualification certificate number: Z0018708 [2] Table of Contents - 01 Cycle: Supply, Demand, and Liquidity - 02 Technology: Applications of Metals in Emerging Fields - 03 Geopolitics: Strategic Materials in the Context of Great - Power Rivalry - 04 Summary: A Triple - Hit under the Metal Pricing Framework [4] Core Views - The non - ferrous metals market is driven by the triple factors of cycle, technology, and geopolitics. The cycle affects the market from aspects of liquidity, supply, and demand; technology brings new demand through metal applications in emerging fields; geopolitics impacts metal prices through strategic material status and currency - related factors [1] Section Summaries Cycle: Supply, Demand, and Liquidity Liquidity - The Federal Reserve is in a rate - cutting cycle, and major economies are in a fiscal expansion period. For example, the U.S. has passed the Big Beautiful Act, discussing the end of balance - sheet reduction and facing a mid - term election next year; the EU Commission predicts that the EU's fiscal deficit rate will rise to 3.3% in 2025 and remain at this level in 2026, with the debt - to - GDP ratio rising from 83.2% in 2025 to 84.5% in 2026; Japan is preparing an economic stimulus plan of over 13.9 trillion yen, and advancing the defense - spending target; China is implementing fiscal expansion, shifting from loose money to loose credit [5][8][10] Supply - There is insufficient capital expenditure in the mining industry, natural decline in mine grades, and depletion of mine resources. This phenomenon is not limited to copper enterprises, and different metal varieties have different investment cycles [11][12] Demand - China provides the beta for metal demand, while emerging countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia provide the alpha. The demand for metals in new energy fields such as photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is also increasing [14][21][23] Technology: Applications of Metals in Emerging Fields - The report does not provide specific content in the given text Geopolitics: Strategic Materials in the Context of Great - Power Rivalry - The U.S. has updated its key mineral list several times. In 2025 (expected), it plans to add 6 minerals such as copper, potassium, silicon, and silver, and consider removing arsenic and tellurium. Some countries have high concentrations in metal production, like Chile and Peru accounting for about 40% of global copper production, and Congo accounting for 75% of global cobalt production. China has a high degree of dependence on most metals except rare earths. Also, the pricing currency hegemony is being challenged, leading to a decline in the trust of global fiat currencies and a re - evaluation of physical assets [24][27] Summary: A Triple - Hit under the Metal Pricing Framework - The report provides a metal pricing framework including factors such as stock price formula, metal price fluctuation formula, and considerations from macro, supply - demand, valuation, and market - behavior aspects, and finally gives trading strategies based on the analysis results [29]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of both external cycles and internal organization in determining a company's success, suggesting that understanding past actions is crucial for defining future outcomes [2][19] Group 1: Successful Companies in Favorable Conditions - Companies like Mixue Ice City thrive in a favorable environment characterized by industry benefits, strategic accuracy, and efficient execution, often referred to as "the right time, the right place, and the right people" [4] - Mixue Ice City's business model focuses on selling raw materials rather than franchise fees, resulting in the lowest opening costs among chain brands and achieving a gross margin and net margin that are among the highest in the new tea beverage industry [4] - The company's revenue is equivalent to the combined total of the second to fourth ranked competitors in the same sector, showcasing its unique profit model [4] Group 2: Companies Adapting to Market Changes - Pop Mart represents a contrasting approach, expanding globally rather than focusing on domestic market penetration, demonstrating a strong organizational capability to adapt to market demands [7] - The concept of "retail entertainment" is highlighted, indicating that companies must continuously innovate to remain relevant and capitalize on market opportunities [7] Group 3: Companies Facing Internal Challenges - Companies like Bottle Planet, known for its brand Jiangxiaobai, faced significant challenges due to a declining traditional liquor market but successfully pivoted to a "new liquor" strategy, launching new products to regain growth [8][9] - The implementation of the Danaher DBS model has been crucial for Bottle Planet's transformation, focusing on systematic improvements across various operational aspects [9][11] Group 4: Companies Struggling with Market Dynamics - Companies like Master Kong are experiencing external pressures from the rise of the takeout market, which has negatively impacted instant noodle sales, highlighting the challenges of adapting to changing consumer behaviors [16] - Three Squirrels, a former leader in the snack industry, struggles with an outdated business model and quality control issues, leading to significant revenue losses and a decline in market position [18]

Core Insights - The Hu-Shen 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index has shown a slight increase of 0.08% as of October 17, 2025, with notable gains from Agricultural Bank (+2.27%), China Merchants Highway (+1.27%), and others [1] - The 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300) has achieved a 0.22% increase, marking its seventh consecutive rise [1] - Recent liquidity data indicates a turnover rate of 1.42% for the ETF, with a trading volume of 69.38 million yuan, and its latest scale reached 4.879 billion yuan, a one-month high [4] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 205 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 167 million yuan [4] - Over the past five years, the ETF's net value has increased by 57.94%, ranking it 82nd out of 1021 index equity funds, placing it in the top 8.03% [4] - The maximum monthly return since inception was 13.89%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being five months and a maximum gain of 14.56% [4] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 6.56% over the past six months [4] Sector Analysis - According to Zheshang Securities, there is a noticeable rise in the financial and cyclical sectors, while the technology sector has weakened, suggesting a potential shift in market focus towards financials, cyclical stocks, and dividends [4] - Changjiang Securities highlights that the dividend sector holds greater allocation value during low-interest periods, with excess returns inversely correlated with government bond yields, which are currently at their lowest since 2002, indicating an opening for price appreciation in dividend assets [5] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hu-Shen 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index include China Shenhua, Shuanghui Development, Gree Electric, and others, collectively accounting for 35.84% of the index [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of making the right choices over mere hard work, highlighting that strategic decisions significantly impact success [4][10] - The author reflects on their journey, noting that despite hard work, they initially struggled to gain traction until they pivoted towards AI, which led to substantial growth in followers [11][15] - The narrative suggests that the future will be dominated by AI, indicating a shift in wealth creation and opportunities, similar to the past two decades of real estate [13][17] Summary by Sections Introduction - The company celebrates surpassing 1 million followers on its video platform, expressing gratitude for the support received [2] Personal Reflection - The author shares insights from their entrepreneurial journey, emphasizing that the right choices are crucial for success [4] - The company has experienced both highs and lows over the past eight years, marking significant milestones [6] Challenges and Realizations - Despite hard work and expertise, initial efforts in content creation did not yield expected results until a strategic shift towards AI was made [10][11] - The realization that tactical efforts cannot compensate for strategic misdirection is highlighted, stressing the importance of choosing the right direction [10] AI as a Turning Point - The author identifies the arrival of the AI era as a structural wave, leading to a rapid increase in followers from 200,000 to 1.05 million within a year [11] - The company has fully embraced AI across all aspects, marking a transformative phase in its operations [15] Future Outlook - The article posits that the next decade will favor those who understand and leverage AI, positioning it as a critical factor for future success [17] - The milestone of 1 million followers is viewed as a starting point for deeper engagement with the AI landscape [17] Upcoming Initiatives - The company announces a promotional event coinciding with the celebration, offering membership benefits and AI-related courses [18]

Group 1 - The market has experienced fluctuations and adjustments recently, but the long-term positive trend remains intact. External shocks leading to asset declines present a good opportunity to increase holdings in the Chinese market [2] - The current external trade risks are relatively clear compared to previous shocks, and domestic financial stability conditions are more apparent, indicating that external disturbances will not end the upward trend [2] - There are structural opportunities alongside short-term adjustments, with continued optimism for technology growth, finance, and certain cyclical sectors. Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation and focus on investment opportunities in these areas [2] Group 2 - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs tracking the China A-share market, providing investors with diverse options to invest in China [2] - The A50 ETF focuses on the top 50 core leading companies, while the A100 ETF encompasses the top 100 industry leaders, and the A500 ETF covers a broader range of 500 companies [2] - The total trading volume in the market reached 2.35 trillion yuan, a decrease of 160.9 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating a decline in market activity [1]

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Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market indices showed mixed performance during the week of September 15-19, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% [4] - In terms of sectors, coal, power equipment, and electronics industries had the highest gains, while banking, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - The domestic new fund market saw increased activity, with 63 new funds established, totaling 748.28 billion units issued. This included 27 bond funds, 27 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 1 international (QDII) fund, and 1 REIT [5] - A total of 31 new funds were issued across the market, with 21 being equity funds, 4 FOF funds, 4 mixed funds, 1 bond fund, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Various industry-themed funds exhibited volatile and divergent performance, with TMT theme funds continuing to show a net value increase of 2.56%, while financial and real estate theme funds saw a notable decline [6] - As of September 19, 2025, the performance of different themed funds was as follows: New Energy (2.07%), National Defense and Military Industry (1.50%), Balanced Industry (0.92%), Rotation Industry (0.49%), Consumption (-0.53%), Cyclical (-1.63%), Pharmaceutical (-2.41%), and Financial Real Estate (-2.68%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - Domestic stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of funds, while Hong Kong stock ETFs maintained significant inflows. Specifically, stock ETFs had a median return of 0.03% with a net inflow of 77.93 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs recorded a median return of 0.84% with a net inflow of 166.52 billion yuan, and cross-border ETFs had a median return of 1.56% with a net inflow of 1.227 billion yuan [8] Fund Positioning Monitoring - The estimated equity positioning of actively managed funds decreased by 0.27 percentage points compared to the previous week. Increased allocations were observed in the automotive, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors, while banking, pharmaceutical, and agriculture sectors saw reduced allocations [9] ESG Financial Products Tracking - A total of 34 new green bonds were issued this week, with a cumulative issuance scale of 379.48 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a total issuance scale of 4.82 trillion yuan and 4,153 bonds issued as of September 19, 2025 [10] - The median net value changes for ESG funds were as follows: active equity funds (1.42%), passive equity index funds (0.21%), and bond ESG funds (0.04%). Funds focused on climate change, low-carbon economy, and carbon neutrality showed significant performance advantages [10]

Group 1 - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.12 trillion yuan, with 3,150 stocks experiencing fluctuations, including 2,174 rising and 1,021 falling [2] - The top three industries with net capital inflow were Electronics (31.004 billion yuan), Computers (15.639 billion yuan), and Machinery Equipment (6.928 billion yuan) [2] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that multiple factors are likely to support the continued performance of Chinese assets, including accelerated transformation, sinking risk-free returns, and surging asset management demand [2] Group 2 - The A50 ETF, launched on March 18, 2024, is part of the Huabao Fund's A-series ETFs, which aim to provide investors with diverse options to invest in China [1][2] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global stock indices mostly rose in August, with A-shares surpassing 3800 points and significant capital inflow, indicating high market enthusiasm [1] - Major A-share indices experienced substantial gains, with growth and cyclical styles leading the market [1] - The bond market saw long-end rates rise while short-end rates fell, with a notable inversion between deposit rates and 10-year government bond yields [1] - Commodity prices fluctuated, with most commodities rising, while oil prices weakened [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields declined amid increased expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a widening of yield spreads [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Guotai Junan reported significant revenue growth, with Q2 2025 adjusted revenue reaching 13.54 billion yuan, up 98.3% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.50 billion yuan, up 38.3% [10] - Anker Innovations achieved a revenue of 12.87 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 33.4% increase, with notable growth in charging and storage products [15] - Haier Smart Home reported H1 2025 revenue of 156.49 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase, and net profit of 12.03 billion yuan, up 15.6% [17] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The market outlook remains positive, with expectations of continued upward trends driven by economic stabilization and external capital inflow [7] - Investment opportunities in AI, cloud infrastructure, and related sectors are highlighted, particularly in overseas markets [13] - The focus on high-dividend cyclical stocks, such as aluminum, is recommended as the economy approaches a recovery phase [7]

Group 1 - The core logic behind the recent A-share market reaching 3800 points is based on two main factors: cycles and human nature [1] - Low valuation sectors and companies are expected to experience valuation recovery, providing a significant potential for returns [1] - The challenge for investors lies in overcoming human weaknesses, particularly during bull markets where anxiety about performance can lead to poor decision-making [1] Group 2 - In a bull market, the strategy of holding from the bottom to the top is often the most profitable, while frequent trading can lead to increased errors and reduced profits [1] - "Certainty opportunities" should focus on companies that are "sufficiently low in valuation, have good liquidity, and stable operating fundamentals," which are the key areas to consider for investment in the current market environment [1]