段永平近日晒出了一个股票账号，该账户的累计收益率超过18倍。 数据显示，2011年11月买入约180万美元，至今盈利近3400万美元，回报达到1881.8%。 段永平透露，这么多年这个账户几乎没怎么动过，笑称全靠打（高尔夫）球赚来的钱。 一直以来，段永平都强调自己只是个业余投资者，充其量算一个规模比较大散户。他的真正爱好是打高尔夫球，投资只是顺手"玩一玩"。 有网友问他，自己是全职投资者，能否给点建议。段永平的回复一如既往地直接："你都职业了，还跑来问一个业余的？" 在他看来，投资是为数不多"业余可以战胜职业"的领域之一。而之所以能做到这一点，关键在于两个过滤器，帮他节省了大量时间。 这两个过滤器，分别是商业模式和企业文化。段永平认为，好的商业模式，本质上是"能够长期赚大钱、且竞争对手难以复制的生意"。 商业模式像一匹马，企业文化像骑师。骑师固然重要，但如果马本身不行，再好的骑师也跑不出好成绩。 促使段永平在投资上发生巨大转变的，是两笔关键投资。从Yahoo到苹果，是一次真正意义上的跃迁。从那以后，他几乎彻底摆脱了市场情绪的干扰。 众所周知，苹果是巴菲特极为重要的一笔投资。段永平也曾透露，巴菲特买入苹果并非因 ...

鉴于上文所述的数据局限性，我们应谨慎解读这些结论。 因工艺节点而异的生产能力的地理分布 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 近日，经济合作与发展组织(OECD：Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Developme nt ) 发布了一份名为（THE CHIP LANDSCAPE：GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF WA FER FABRICATION CAPACITY）的报告。 报告中，他们基于其了解，分享了其对全球晶圆厂产能的数据统计。现在，我们将其摘译如下， 分享给读者。需要声明的是，由于本文讨论的数据基于对SEMI、TechInsights数据和案头研究 的分析而得出的部分结论。 图 1 显示了五个晶圆产能最高的经济体（即中华人民共和、中国台湾、韩国、日本和美国）在七个不 同工艺节点密度范围内（详见方框 1）的在产晶圆产能（不包括即将投产的晶圆厂的产能）的地理分 布。截至 2025 年 9 月，这五个经济体合计占全球在产晶圆产能的 87%。 图 1 展示了不同经济体工艺节点组合的差异。例如，韩国的晶圆产能高度集中，近 8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden criminal detention of Yu Faxiang, a prominent businessman with a net worth of 14.5 billion, has triggered a liquidity crisis involving 20 billion and nearly 10,000 investors, leading to significant turmoil in his companies [1][3]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On December 22, three publicly listed companies—Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Jiaojian Co., and Haichang Ocean Park—announced that their actual controller, Yu Faxiang, was taken away by the police for suspected criminal activities [3]. - Just two months prior, Yu was featured on the Hurun Rich List with a net worth of 14.5 billion, ranking 465th, highlighting the abruptness of his fall from grace [3]. - The crisis began in late November when financial products guaranteed by Xiangyuan Holdings started to default, with an estimated outstanding payment scale exceeding 20 billion, involving over 200 products [3]. Group 2: Financial and Operational Challenges - The company’s executive, Shen Baoshan, admitted that the firm had been relying on a "borrow new to repay old" strategy, and now the cash flow has been severely disrupted due to a halt in financing [3][4]. - Xiangyuan Holdings, which claims total assets of 60 billion, is facing a cash flow crisis due to unsold real estate worth 30 billion and a breakdown in its financing chain [3][4]. Group 3: Business Model and Risks - Yu Faxiang's business model, which heavily relies on high turnover in real estate to fund cultural tourism operations, has proven to be vulnerable, especially when the real estate market cools down [4]. - The over-reliance on financing rather than operational cash flow has exposed the company to significant risks, particularly after the cancellation of trading qualifications at the Zhejiang Financial Center [4]. - The resignation of Yu Faxiang's cousin, Yu Honghua, from all listed company positions and the judicial freezing of over 800 million shares held by Yu and his affiliates indicate potential instability in company control [4].

Group 1 - The current state of the US stock market, particularly in technology, is at a crossroads, with debates on whether to continue investing or to withdraw, reflecting a complex discussion beyond simple bullish or bearish sentiments [1][3] - The volatility in the tech sector has increased, prompting comparisons to the dot-com bubble of 2000, raising concerns about whether the market is nearing a bubble burst [3][4] - Investors are advised to analyze individual company financials to assess whether valuations are inflated, with some investors currently holding cash due to perceived overvaluation in certain stocks [4][6] Group 2 - The discussion includes the importance of understanding the business models of companies, with a focus on those that leverage network effects and have strong brand loyalty, such as Facebook and credit card companies [8][10] - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 is around 21, indicating that the market is not excessively overvalued compared to historical averages [11][12] - The global stock markets, including the US and China, are viewed as reasonably priced, with P/E ratios slightly above historical averages, suggesting that there is no immediate bubble [12][13] Group 3 - AI is characterized as a long-term innovation wave rather than a cyclical trend, with significant implications for investment strategies [14][15] - The value chain in the AI sector is expected to shift from hardware providers to software and application developers, indicating a potential change in investment focus [16][17] - Companies that can demonstrate strong cash flow and sustainable business models in the AI space are likely to be more resilient and less risky investments [30][32] Group 4 - The importance of verifying company claims regarding future revenues and orders is emphasized, as investors should not take such statements at face value [23][29] - Business models that are asset-light and leverage partnerships, like Marriott's franchise model, are highlighted as superior compared to capital-intensive models [28][29] - The focus should be on companies that can effectively utilize AI to enhance productivity and efficiency, rather than those that merely rely on AI hype [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) industry is facing significant challenges, with many companies struggling to achieve profitability, as highlighted by the statement from Duan Yongping, a prominent investor in China [4][10]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Duan Yongping emphasizes that while the automotive industry has value, it is difficult to turn it into a "good business" due to intense competition and product homogenization [6][14]. - The automotive sector has historically experienced a high level of product similarity, which has led to fierce competition and a lack of unique selling propositions [14][18]. - The transition from traditional fuel vehicles to electric vehicles may exacerbate these challenges, as the EV market is predicted to become increasingly homogeneous [15][18]. Group 2: Business Model Insights - A strong business model requires differentiation, which is currently lacking in the automotive industry, making it hard for companies to establish a competitive moat [12][14]. - Duan Yongping argues that the automotive industry is at risk of falling into a price war, which can undermine long-term profitability and innovation [20][21]. - Companies need to focus on creating unique value propositions rather than competing solely on price, as this can lead to a race to the bottom [20][21]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - To transform the automotive business into a sustainable venture, companies should concentrate their efforts and resources rather than diversifying too broadly [22][24]. - The single product model, exemplified by companies like Apple, allows for focused resource allocation and can lead to superior product quality and customer loyalty [26][29]. - Companies should explore the potential of electric vehicles as platforms for additional services, leveraging the time consumers spend in their vehicles to create new revenue streams [32][36]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of the automotive industry may hinge on the ability to innovate beyond traditional vehicle sales, potentially integrating software and services that enhance user experience [32][36]. - Duan Yongping's evolving views on electric vehicles and autonomous driving reflect a broader trend of adapting to new market realities and consumer behaviors [37][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy of Duan Yongping, highlighting his commitment to long-term value investing and his unwavering support for Kweichow Moutai despite market fluctuations [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Duan Yongping reiterates the principle that "buying stocks means buying companies," showcasing his belief in the intrinsic value of businesses rather than short-term market movements [1][3]. - He maintains a significant holding in Apple, with a proportion close to 80%, based on his conviction in the company's strong business model and competitive advantages [3][4]. Group 2: Kweichow Moutai Investment - Duan's investment in Kweichow Moutai serves as a classic example of "contrarian investment and long-term holding," where he first invested during a crisis in 2012 and has continued to buy during market downturns [4][5]. - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai has faced pressure, dropping from around 1600 yuan to a low of 1426 yuan, reflecting broader challenges in the high-end consumer market [4][5]. - Despite the stock price decline, Duan has not sold any shares and has continued to buy at lower prices, viewing the market's short-term fluctuations as opportunities [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The article warns that ordinary investors may misinterpret Duan's actions, as they lack his unique financial position and long-term investment horizon, which could lead to significant risks if they attempt to mimic his strategy without understanding the underlying principles [5][6]. - Duan advises against blindly following his investment decisions, encouraging investors to analyze the fundamental data and market conditions before making their own investment choices [6][7].

Core Insights - The core perspective of the discussion revolves around the importance of understanding business models in investment and the significance of hard work in achieving success [1][4][6]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment is fundamentally about understanding the business and its model, with a strong emphasis on effort and diligence [1][4]. - Segmenting investments based on personal understanding of the business is crucial; for instance, the investment in Moutai is justified by personal connections and understanding of its market [2][5]. - The experience with investing in NetEase, which yielded a 20-fold return, highlights the importance of recognizing and understanding business operations rather than relying on luck [5][6]. Group 2: Views on Specific Companies - There is a strong belief in the potential of Moutai, with the assertion that it is a better investment than keeping money in the bank, although there may be other opportunities with higher returns [2]. - The investment in Apple is still viewed positively, emphasizing the difficulty of finding good companies and the importance of not selling too quickly after a profit [5][7]. Group 3: Personal Insights and Life Philosophy - The discussion includes reflections on personal effort and the misconception of talent, emphasizing that success comes from hard work rather than innate ability [8]. - The concept of "being grounded" is highlighted, which involves rational decision-making and a long-term perspective in business [8].

Core Insights - The article features a rare in-depth conversation with the renowned entrepreneur and investor Duan Yongping, discussing his philosophy of "being true to oneself" and its application in business, investment, and personal development [3][4][6]. Investment Logic - Duan emphasizes that understanding the business is the core of investment, sharing insights from his experience with companies like Apple and Moutai, highlighting the importance of business models and corporate culture in investment decisions [4][24][25]. Corporate Culture and Succession - The success of companies like OPPO and vivo is attributed to a hiring principle where cultural fit is prioritized over capability, and a systematic approach to identifying compatible partners over time [5][29][30]. Marketing Principles - Duan advocates for honesty in marketing, stating that communication with users should be efficient and truthful, which he believes is essential for building trust and brand loyalty [6][55]. Education Philosophy - He provides insights on parenting, arguing against physical punishment and advocating for unconditional love and boundary-setting to foster a sense of security in children [6][74][75]. Long-term Perspective - Duan defines a "calm mind" as rationality and long-term thinking, suggesting that maintaining a long-term perspective can lead to better decision-making in both business and life [6][92]. Reflections on Success - The conversation touches on the role of luck and effort in success, with Duan asserting that while luck plays a part, consistent effort and understanding one's business are crucial for achieving long-term success [6][78][82]. Insights from Buffett's Lunch - Duan shares a key takeaway from a lunch with Warren Buffett, emphasizing the importance of a company's business model and culture as filters for investment decisions [4][87][88]. AI and Future Perspectives - The discussion includes thoughts on AI, recognizing its potential to enhance efficiency while also acknowledging the uncertainties it brings to the future [6][90]. Philosophy of "Being True to Oneself" - Duan's overarching philosophy revolves around the concept of "being true to oneself," which he believes underpins both effective business strategies and a fulfilling life [6][93].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 田朴珺：你当时带他去见了巴菲特，当时好像是说只能带6个人。 段永平：七个人。我搞错了，我带了八个。 来源：中信书院 田朴珺：你觉得最大的收获是什么？ 在公众视野渐隐多时的知名企业家、投资人段永平，近期罕见现身纪实节目《共同说》第三季，与王 石、田朴珺展开一场深度对谈，这是一次难得的同框。 段永平：我最重要的收获就是我问他，你看公司最重要的什么，他说商业模式。那个给我印象很深，因 为我们看公司就是什么都看。我说你第一个看什么，他说商业模式，如果商业模式不对，我就不往下看 了。他有过滤器，他讲的叫做对的人和对的价格。到我这里，我连对的价格都不讲了。 田朴珺：你有一个门徒，现在也很厉害，号称是你的门徒，就是黄峥。 因为价格是你的运气，但是商业模式的第一关一定要过，你还要看他企业文化是不是你喜欢的。 段永平：他从来没说过，别人说的。我们就是朋友，因为他进谷歌之前，丁磊介绍他认识我的，我发现 他确实是我当年聊天的同龄人里头，特别有悟性的一个人，能够跟得上我说的东西，能够理解。因为他 也没有碰过企业，他是认为我当年跟他讲的话，对后来他经营企业有帮助 ...

Core Insights - The conversation features a rare appearance by investor Duan Yongping, who discusses his "benfen" philosophy that underpins his business and investment practices, emphasizing the importance of understanding business fundamentals [1][2][66] - Duan Yongping shares insights on investment, corporate culture, and education, highlighting the significance of long-term thinking and rationality in both business and personal life [2][67] Investment Logic - Duan emphasizes that understanding the business is crucial for successful investment, citing his experience with Vanke and the importance of recognizing true value in financial data [11][12] - He mentions that he bought shares in Moutai and believes in its long-term potential, suggesting that understanding consumer preferences is key to investment decisions [12][13] Corporate Culture and Succession - The success of companies like OPPO and Vivo is attributed to a hiring principle that prioritizes cultural fit over individual capability, indicating a systematic approach to building a cohesive team [2][66] - Duan discusses the importance of a user-oriented corporate culture that focuses on doing the right things over merely chasing profits, which he believes is essential for long-term sustainability [17][18] Marketing Philosophy - Duan outlines a straightforward marketing principle: there should be no lies in communication, and messages should be conveyed to users with maximum efficiency [2][66] - He shares his experience with advertising, emphasizing the need for authenticity and the careful crafting of messages to resonate with consumers [35][36] Educational Insights - Duan provides a perspective on parenting, advocating for unconditional love and setting boundaries to foster a sense of security in children, which he believes can break generational cycles of behavior [2][67] - He argues against physical punishment, suggesting that it does not build resilience but rather creates insecurity, and emphasizes the importance of guiding children with understanding [50][51] Long-term Mindset - Duan defines "平常心" (ordinary mind) as rationality and long-term thinking, asserting that maintaining a long-term perspective helps in overcoming external distractions [2][67] - He believes that a long-term approach is essential for both business success and personal fulfillment, creating a logical framework that connects various aspects of life [64]