本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【2025年以来金银指数上涨，下半年黄金走势受多因素影响】2025年以来，伦金和沪金两大指数涨跌幅 分别达26.75%和25.82%；上周，伦金和沪金涨跌幅分别为1.61%和1.39%。2022年6月，CPI数据创新高 至9.1%，随后连续温和下行，PCE也于同期见顶回落，核心CPI和核心PCE数据呈下行趋势。2024年2月 以来，CPI首次反弹，核心通胀下跌速度减缓甚至回升。美国5月CPI同比上涨2.4%，低于预期2.5%，前 值2.3%；核心CPI同比2.8%，预期2.9%，前值2.8%。5月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.7%，高于预期的 2.6%；5月PCE物价指数同比增长2.3%，高于4月的2.2%。2023年10月中下旬，美国中期国债利率震荡 下行，延续至今年1月；2024年2月以来，美国国债利率震荡反弹，临近去年高点后高位附近震荡回落， 临近24年低点宽幅震荡。从黄金供需平衡表看，黄金供需紧平衡助涨价格，弱平衡时影响不大。2024年 全球黄金供需宽松程度减少，主要因投资需求大增；国内黄金供应同比小幅增加，需求同比大幅回落， 但仍处紧平衡， ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月06日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标逆季节性上升 主要结论：高频指标逆季节性上升。 风险提示：海外市场动荡，存在不确定性。 经济增长方面，本周(7 月 4 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 由负转正， 指数 B 有所回升。从分项来看，本周投资领域景气有所回升，消费、房地产 领域景气基本保持不变，本周投资表现较优。从季节性比较来看，本周指数 B 标准化后逆季节性上升 0.14，表现优于历史平均水平，指向国内经济增长 动能有所改善。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 S0980516060001 S0980524090003 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 7 月 11 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 月度择时模型：7月10年国债利率中枢或下行 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 2025.07.02 10年国债利率月度择时模型预测更新： www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 风险提示：模型计算可能存在误差，指标选取可能不够全面 信息披露 证券分析师承诺 本报告署名分析师具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并注册为证券分析师，以勤勉的职业态度、专业审慎的研究方法，使用合法合规的信息，独立、客观地出具本报告,并对本报告的内容和观点负责。本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报 告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。 与公司有关的信息披露 ◼ 模型预测2025年7月10年国债YTM中枢下行，低于6月1.65%的中枢水平。 经济特征 市场环境 其他要素 因子选取： ➢ 经济增长 ➢ 物价变化 ➢ 资金面 ➢ 市场现状 ➢ 季节性 历史对比： T 期 特 征 因 子 与历史比较， 选 择 与 T 期 相 似度高的若干 期历史阶段。 市场预测： 使用与当前阶 段相似度高的 历史阶段的下 一 期 ， 作 为 ...

周度价格高频跟踪方面： 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月29日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标延续季节性回落 主要结论：高频指标延续季节性回落。 经济增长方面，本周(6 月 27 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持负值， 指数 B 季节性回落。从分项来看，本周投资领域景气有所回落，消费、房地 产领域景气基本保持不变。从季节性比较来看，本周指数 B 标准化后下跌 0.14，表现基本持平历史平均水平，指向国内经济增长动能运行稳健。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 7 月 4 日所在 周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 （1）本周食品价格小幅下跌，非食品价格上涨。预计 6 月 CPI 食品价格环 比约为-0.5%，非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为-0.1%，CPI 同比 小幅回升至零。 （2）6 月上旬流通领域生产资料价格定基指数继续下跌，中旬止跌回升。预 计 6 月 PPI 环比约为-0.3%，PPI 同比回落至-3.4%。 风险提示：海外市场动荡，存在不确定性。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观 ...

对于同一件传闻和新闻的利用，"只有再一再二，没有再三再四"。就是说，对于同一件事，效果最好的 是第一次，第二次效果还算行，但第三次效果就几乎没有了，至于第四次，再强烈再轰动，市场也早已 麻木了，边际效应已经递减为 0 ，甚至为负了。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250627— 70%认为十年国债利率年内创新低（-美中就加快稀土出口达成谅解+工业企业利润数 据偏弱+股市下跌+资金面均衡偏松=微上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率微幅上行。 央行公开市场开展5259亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1612亿元逆回购到期，净投放3647亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.37%附近，DR007在1.70%附近。 -------------------------- 【今日盘面】 250011 1.6450/1.6480/1.6420/1.6460 +0.30 250210 1.7185/1.7224/1.7150/1.7212 +0.42 | | | 银行间资金 | | (2025.06.27) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

北京某银行网点展示板 （原标题：存定期不如买国债？） 6月10日，新的一期储蓄国债发售。 当日下午，90后的北京白领李先生登录手机银行客户端，发现当日已无可购买额度。银行客户经理告诉他，后续交易日应该还有额度，让他继续 关注手机银行客户端。 6月11日和6月12日，多家银行的手机银行客户端陆续放出额度。不需要"抢购"后，李先生又开始犹豫了，因为本月开始，储蓄国债的利率下调 了。 6月12日，招商银行朝阳区一家支行的客户经理告诉经济观察报记者，当日还有储蓄国债份额，网点和手机端均可以认购。6月发行的储蓄国债利 率下调了，此前多期储蓄国债都在首发日售罄。 根据财政部发布公告，6月10日至6月19日发行2025年第三期储蓄国债（电子式）（下称"第三期国债"）和2025年第四期储蓄国债（电子式）（下 称"第四期国债"）。 6月发售的储蓄国债相比今年前几个月的利率下降了30个基点。其中，第三期国债期限3年，票面年利率为1.63%，最大发行额250亿元；第四期国 债期限5年，票面年利率为1.7%，最大发行额250亿元。 "现在才知道前几期的国债利率有多香。"李先生感叹。财政部在2025年的3月、4月、5月、6月均发行了储 ...

10万元5年赚8500元预计利率还有下调空间 财政部公告称，第三期国债和第四期国债均为固定利率、固定期限品种。第三期国债期限3年，票面年 利率1.63%，最大发行额250亿元；第四期国债期限5年，票面年利率1.7%，最大发行额250亿元。 记者留意到，本次两期储蓄国债利率较上期均下调30BP。其中，5年期产品票面年利率较上期下调后跌 破2%，票面年利率仅1.7%。按照票面利率计算，投资者如果购买10万元本次发行的3年期、5年期储蓄 国债，累计收益分别为4890元和8500元。 近日，财政部发布公告称，将于6月10日至6月19日发行2025年第三期储蓄国债（电子式）（以下称第三 期国债）和2025年第四期储蓄国债（电子式）（以下称第四期国债）。 记者留意到，本次两期储蓄国债票面利率较上期均下调了30BP，这也是今年储蓄国债票面利率的首次 下调。其中，3年期产品票面年利率为1.63%，5年期产品票面年利率跌破"2字头"，至1.7%。 有银行业内人士提醒，第三期国债和第四期国债在6月10日8:30开售，有需求的市民可在手机银行、银 行柜台等购买。 储蓄国债仍具投资优势 储蓄国债利率下调，还值得投资吗？冯琳表示，尽管 ...

广州日报讯（全媒体记者王楚涵、林晓丽）近日，财政部发布公告称，将于6月10日至6月19日发行2025 年第三期储蓄国债（电子式）（以下称第三期国债）和2025年第四期储蓄国债（电子式）（以下称第四 期国债）。两期储蓄国债票面利率较上期均下调了30BP，这也是今年储蓄国债票面利率的首次下调。 财政部公告称，第三期国债和第四期国债均为固定利率、固定期限品种。第三期国债期限3年，票面年 利率1.63%，最大发行额250亿元；第四期国债期限5年，票面年利率1.7%，最大发行额250亿元。投资 者如果购买10万元本次发行的3年期、5年期储蓄国债，累计收益分别为4890元和8500元。 有银行业内人士提醒，第三期国债和第四期国债在6月10日8∶30开售。本批国债均为电子式储蓄国债， 市民可通过承销银行的手机银行、网上银行，以及银行营业网点柜台购买。此外，本批电子式储蓄国债 付息方式都是每年付息一次，到期一次性还本并支付最后一年利息；且在发行期结束后可提前兑取，按 实际持有天数及相应的利率档次计算利息，即靠档计息。 （文章来源：广州日报） 东方金诚研发部执行总监冯琳分析称，"在货币政策维持宽松，广谱利率持续下行的背景下，预 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月08日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标偏弱，消费表现相对稳健 主要结论：高频指标偏弱，消费表现相对稳健。 经济增长方面，本周(6 月 6 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持负值， 指数 B 继续回落。从分项来看，本周投资、房地产领域景气有所回落，消费 领域景气基本保持不变。从季节性比较来看，本周指数 B 标准化后下降 0.43， 表现弱于历史平均水平，指向国内经济增长环比动能偏弱。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 6 月 13 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品价格小幅上涨，非食品价格小幅下跌。预计 5 月 CPI 食品价 格环比约为-1.0%，非食品价格环比约为-0.2%，整体 CPI 环比约为-0.4%， CPI 同比回落至-0.4%。 （2）5 月上旬流通领域生产资料价格定基指数继续下跌，中旬小幅回升，下 旬继续下跌。预计 5 月 PPI 环比约为-0.3%，PPI 同比回落至-3.2%。 风险提示：海外市场动荡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news, but the export chain is heating up and the stock index continues to rebound. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430, and silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8. The CMA of the container shipping index (European line) continues to raise prices in July, and the steel industry's demand and inventory are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound state, and the prices of coke and coking coal may continue to decline. The supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has different situations, and the prices of copper and tin are affected by different factors. The oil price is dragged down by supply concerns, and the prices of various chemical and agricultural products are also affected by different supply - demand and market factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is ongoing, and the index is affected by news in the short - term. The export chain is heating up, and the stock index continues to rebound. After the volatility subsides, it will continue to oscillate neutrally. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to go long on the CSI 1000 index in the range of 5800 - 5900 [2]. Treasury Bond - The 10 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.75%, and the 30 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.95%. In the short - term, the market lacks driving forces, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to conduct interval - band operations, and currently, the odds are limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Precious Metals - Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430. It may have a pulse - type rise affected by news in the short - term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted to earn time value. Silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8 after breaking through the previous high resistance of $33.5, and beware of long - position profit - taking at high levels [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The CMA continues to raise prices in July, and the market oscillates upwards. It is considered to go long on the 08 contract at low prices [2]. Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. Iron Ore - It is in a range - bound state, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Coke - The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills started on June 4th. The coking coal is weakly conceding profits, and the coke price may continue to decline. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Coking Coal - The market auction continues to be cold, the coal mine production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a high level. The spot price may still decline, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Silicon - Iron - The large - scale factories in Ningxia have resumed production, and the cost side has rebounded and repaired. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Manganese - Silicon - The shipment from Groote Eylandt has resumed, but the supply of manganese - silicon still has weak driving forces. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Copper - The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Tin - The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, and the short - term shortage of tin ore boosts the tin price. It can be considered to try to go long [2]. Crude Oil - Saudi Arabia's willingness to increase production remains strong, and the increase in EIA refined oil inventory has aggravated the long - term supply concerns, dragging down the oil price. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is still recommended. In the short - term, it is necessary to observe whether the macro - environment eases before making long or short positions. The fluctuation range of WTI is given as [59, 69], Brent as [61, 71], and SC as [440, 500]. Options can buy a straddle structure to capture the opportunity of increased volatility after the holiday [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the upstream continues to tighten inventory, and the export scale is difficult to increase for the time being, providing limited support to the market. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is adopted. In the short - term, the market oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The main contract should pay attention to the support around [1730, 1750] [2]. PX - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but the tight spot market still provides support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 6500; focus on the reverse - arbitrage opportunity for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. In the short - term, it still has support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 4600; mainly conduct reverse - arbitrage for TA9 - 1 [2]. Short - Fiber - Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has been repaired. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; mainly expand the processing fee on the PF futures market when it is low [2]. Bottle - Chip - During the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production reduction for bottle - chips, and the processing fee is supported. PR follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; the main contract's processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower limit of the range [2]. Ethanol - The port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity. EG09 pays attention to the opportunity to go long at around 4200; conduct positive - arbitrage for EG9 - 1 at low prices [2]. Styrene - With the expectation of gradually weakening supply - demand, the price is under pressure. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Caustic Soda - The alumina procurement supports the spot market. Pay attention to the marginal pressure of supply - demand and the warehouse receipts. Before the fundamental situation weakens significantly or the warehouse receipts flow out, still pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between the near - month and the 09 contract [2]. PVC - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively relieve. Pay attention to the change in India's BIS policy in June. Adopt a high - short strategy, and the operating range is 4500 - 5000 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR follows the commodity rebound. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2]. LLDPE - The spot price rises with the futures market, and the trading volume is moderate. It is in an oscillating state [2]. PP - The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Methanol - The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillating state [2]. Grains - The CBOT has stabilized and rebounded, and the two grains oscillate. M2509 oscillates in the range of 2900 - 3000 [2]. Live Pig - The demand is weak after the holiday, and the spot price is under pressure again. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. Corn - The spot price is relatively stable, and the corn oscillates in a narrow range. It oscillates around 2330 in the short - term [2]. Palm Oil - The palm oil inventory may increase significantly, suppressing the increase in the market. Test the support at 8000 in the short - term [2]. White Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. Egg - The spot price may weaken again. Short - sell on rebounds for the 07 contract and hold the short position [2]. Apple - It is in the off - season of demand, and the trading follows the market. The main contract operates around 7700 [2]. Orange Juice - The market price is weakly stable. It is in the process of bottom - building [2]. Peanut - The market price oscillates. The main contract operates around 8400 [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash, the oversupply logic continues. Adopt a high - short strategy on rebounds and hold the short position. Conduct positive - arbitrage for the 7 - 9 spread. For glass, the market sentiment has reversed, and the futures price rebounds. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds. For rubber, the market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price rebounds slightly. Hold the short position and pay attention to the support at the 13000 level. For industrial silicon, the short - position closing on the industrial silicon futures market leads to a rebound. If there is a short position, it is recommended to close it. For polysilicon, although the warehouse receipts increase, the polysilicon futures price rebounds. If there is a long position, it is recommended to hold it carefully. For lithium carbonate, the sentiment improves, and the intraday futures price rebounds significantly, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - For zinc, the supply increase is less than expected, which supports the price. Pay attention to the inventory change. The main contract refers to the range of 21500 - 23500. For nickel, the sentiment improves, and the futures price oscillates and recovers, with little change in the fundamentals. The main contract refers to the range of 118000 - 126000. For stainless steel, the futures price mainly oscillates, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to the range of 12600 - 13200 [3].