Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Likely Positive Factors**: The central bank conducted large - scale net reverse repurchase operations, injecting 44.8 billion yuan, leading to loose liquidity. The increased demand of institutions to hold bonds during the holiday supports the price of 10 - year treasury bonds [2]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Structural interest rate cuts have been implemented, weakening the expectation of monetary easing. There is a large supply pressure of local government bonds. The inter - bank capital market has tightened, with a decline in reverse repurchase operations, putting pressure on the market [2]. - **Trading Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see the post - holiday market and pay attention to changes in the capital market and supply pressure [2]. Group 3: Data Summaries Treasury Bond Yields - The report shows the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bond yields from 2024/06 to 2025/12 [3]. Funding Rates - The trends of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day tenors, as well as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, are presented from 2023/12 to 2025/12 [3]. Treasury Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond spreads are shown from 2024/06 to 2025/12 [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented from 2015/12 to 2025/12 [6]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Volumes - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are shown from 2024/06 to 2025/12 [7]. Treasury Bond Futures Basis - The basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current quarter contracts are presented at different time points [8][9][10][13]. Treasury Bond Futures Inter - delivery Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads (current quarter - next quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are shown at different time points [16][17]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - The cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL are presented at different time points [18][19].

Report Core View - Bullish factors include the central bank conducting reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 21.22 billion yuan, resulting in a marginal easing of liquidity. Also, Treasury bond futures closed slightly stable, heating up at the end of the session with a slight decline in yields [2] - Bearish factors are that both China's CPI and PPI rose in December, increasing inflation pressure, and the decreased expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising global trade uncertainties have led to increased uncertainty in foreign capital inflows [2] - The trading advisory view suggests paying attention to the short - term decline of the basis and closely monitoring the price support from the central bank's liquidity operations [2] Data Presented in the Report (Sources from Wind) 1. Treasury Bond Yield - The report shows the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024 - 04 to 2025 - 12 [3] 2. Treasury Bond Term Spread - It presents the trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond spreads from 2024 - 04 to 2025 - 12 [4] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Open Interest - The open interest trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2015 - 12 to 2025 - 12 are shown [6] 3.2 Trading Volume - The trading volume trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from 2024 - 04 to 2025 - 12 are presented [7] 3.3 Basis of Current - Quarter Contracts - The basis trends of current - quarter contracts for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures are shown in different time periods [8][9][12] 3.4 Inter - Delivery Spread (Current - Quarter - Next - Quarter) - The inter - delivery spread trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from different time periods are presented [16][17] 3.5 Inter - Variety Spread - The trends of the TS * 4 - T and T * 3 - TL inter - variety spreads from different time periods are shown [18][19]

Group 1: Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) was 1.05 as of January 13, 2026, a decrease of 0.09 from January 6, 2026. The decline was primarily attributed to a drop in the coastal coal freight index by 0.09 [2][1] - The import dry bulk freight index remained stable compared to the previous week [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - As of January 13, 2026, the central bank net withdrew 77.8 billion yuan through open market operations. The reverse repurchase amount for the week was 517.2 billion yuan, with 595 billion yuan maturing [4][5] Group 3: Interest Rates and Financing - The overnight interbank rate rose by 17 basis points to 1.5% over the past week, and the seven-day repurchase rate increased by 8 basis points to 1.57% [9][10] - The one-year swap rate increased by 1.43 basis points to 1.52%, while the five-year swap rate decreased by 0.42 basis points to 1.64% [12][9] - The yields on one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bonds fell by 10, 2.23, and 3.1 basis points to 1.26%, 1.64%, and 1.85%, respectively [15][9] Group 4: Industrial Sector - As of January 13, 2026, the price of steel billets increased by 1.37% week-on-week, while cement prices decreased by 1.12% [22][23] - The operating rate of short-process steel mills rose from 67.71% to 70.83% over the past month [22] - The operating rate for full steel tire production decreased to 58.02%, down from 58.15% the previous week [22] Group 5: Shipping and Real Estate - The coastal bulk freight index decreased by 5.98 points to 1012.77 points as of January 13, 2026 [30] - In first-tier cities, new and second-hand housing transaction areas increased by 0.05% and 32.04%, respectively [31][33] - The land transaction area in 100 cities was 12.64 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 63.63% [31] Group 6: Consumer Prices - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with urban prices increasing by 0.9% and rural prices by 0.6% [39][41] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [39][41] Group 7: Global Perspective - The US dollar index rose by 0.58 points to 99.18, while the RMB/USD exchange rate decreased by 48 basis points to 6.9765 [42][44] - The VIX index increased by 1.23 points to 15.98 [49]

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - Bullish factors for the 10-year Treasury bond last week include the recovery of allocation demand due to alleviated concerns about ultra-long-term supply and increased institutional allocation willingness, and a loose funding environment with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, leading to downward pressure on interest rates [2] - Bearish factors are the weak expectation of monetary easing as the Fed's rate cut expectation lacks strong fundamental support in the short term, and the pressure from the stock-bond seesaw, with capital preference for the bond market causing selling pressure on the stock market and yield fluctuations [2] - The trading advisory view is that the bond market sentiment was generally cautious last week. It is recommended to focus on the allocation window brought by the widening of spreads, buy configuration-type contracts on dips, maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and avoid unilateral chasing [2] Group 2: Data Presentations Yields - The document presents the historical data of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024 to 2025 [3] Funding Rates - It shows the historical data of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit-taking institutions for 1-day and 7-day tenors and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 2023 to 2025 [3] Term Spreads - The historical data of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024 to 2025 are presented [4] Futures Basis - The historical data of the basis of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures' current-quarter contracts are shown [7][8][9][15] Futures Inter - Delivery Spreads - The historical data of the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures are presented [11][13][16] Futures Trading Volume - The historical trading volume data of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures from 2015 to 2025 are shown [14] Futures Cross - Product Spreads - The historical data of the cross - product spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL are presented [17][18]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The TL2603 is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with an intraday weakening trend, overall in a state of oscillatory consolidation. Short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures index sectors such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, due to strong macro - data resilience and bond supply pressure, bond yields have risen and bond futures prices have fallen. In the long run, due to insufficient domestic demand, there is room for policy rate cuts, which will support bond futures prices. Overall, short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For intraday, a decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly - trending, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly - trending, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. The concepts of strongly - trending/weakly - trending only apply to intraday views [1][3][4]. - **TL2603**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weakly - trending. The view is oscillatory consolidation, with the core logic being a low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weakly - trending; Medium - term view: oscillatory; Reference view: oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the short term, strong macro - data resilience reduces the urgency of monetary easing, and the supply pressure of bond issuance has led to a significant rise in bond yields and a decline in bond futures prices since the end of December. In the long run, the problem of insufficient domestic demand requires a relatively loose monetary and credit environment, so there is still room for policy rate cuts, and bond futures prices have support. Overall, short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [5].

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of January 6, 2026, is 1.13, an increase of 0.05 from December 30, 2025, driven by a rise in the coastal coal freight index [1][3] - The "import dry bulk freight index" remained stable at 1.15, indicating consistent shipping costs [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to expansion for the first time since April 2025 [17] - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors saw PMIs of 52.5%, 50.4%, and 50.4%, respectively, all above the neutral line [17] - New orders index rose from 49.2% to 50.8%, and the production index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7% [2][17] - The procurement volume index also returned to expansion at 51.1%, indicating increased demand for raw materials [2][17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for December 2025 is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion [18] - The construction and service sectors reported indices of 52.8% and 49.7%, respectively, with construction rebounding after four months of contraction [18] Price Trends - The producer price index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, while the main raw material purchase price index remains high at 53.1% [2][17] Financial Market Indicators - The central bank's net cash withdrawal through open market operations was 695.9 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [5] - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 1 basis point to 1.33%, while the seven-day repo rate fell by 66 basis points to 1.49% [8] Real Estate Market - In the week ending January 6, 2026, new and second-hand home transaction areas in first-tier cities fell by 48.57% and 38.95%, respectively [30] - Second-tier cities saw a decline of 59.67% and 23.04% in transaction areas for new and second-hand homes [30] Consumer Behavior - The average daily box office for movies reached 154 million yuan, an increase of 78.64 million yuan from the previous week [32]

Group 1: Core View - The trading advisory view is to focus on the fluctuations of the term spread and keep the position flexible to cope with potential fluctuations [2] Group 2: Market Factors Bullish Factors - The sentiment in the bond market has warmed up, the yield of the 10-year active bond has fallen below 1.85%, and the term spread has narrowed [2] - The central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase after three months, releasing cross-year liquidity and leading to a loose funding situation [2] Bearish Factors - The 10-year Treasury bond futures declined slightly, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread continued to widen [2] - Due to the imbalance between long - end supply and demand and the pressure of new public fund regulations, the 30-year yield increased by nearly 2bp [2] Group 3: Market Data Yield and Interest Rate - Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y Treasury bond yields from 24/04 to 25/08 are presented [3] - Data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 23/12 to 25/06 are shown [3] Term Spread - Data on the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 24/04 to 25/08 are provided [5] Futures Position and Transaction - Data on the positions and transactions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from different time periods are presented [7][8] Basis and Spread - Data on the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures for the current quarter are shown [9][10][11][13] - Data on the inter - period spreads (current quarter - next quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from different time periods are provided [16][17] - Data on the cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL from different time periods are presented [18][19]

Report Summary Core View - There are both positive and negative factors in the bond market. Positive factors include a loose capital market despite the contraction of the manufacturing PMI, and rumors of "dual cuts" in the political situation boosting sentiment, leading to a decline in yields and an overall rise in futures. Negative factors are that the central bank's bond - buying scale is lower than expected, causing yields to rise and futures to fall, as well as banks selling bonds to realize profits and bond funds facing redemption pressure, resulting in consecutive increases in yields and falling futures. The trading advice is to pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying intensity and short - term liquidity and keep positions flexible [2] Specific Data and Indicators Yield and Interest Rate - Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented, along with data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day terms and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [3] Term Spread - Data on treasury bond term spreads (7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y) from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are provided [4][5] Futures Position and Trading Volume - Data on the positions and trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from different time periods are shown [7][8] Basis and Spread - Data on the basis of the current - quarter contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented, as well as the inter - period spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures. Additionally, data on cross - variety spreads (TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL) are provided [9][10][14][16][18][19][20]

Report Summary Core View - The capital market maintains a loose pattern, and abundant liquidity supports the bond market. The economic fundamentals have no significant negative factors, and the market environment is relatively stable. However, there are potential risks of rising inflation expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, which may put pressure on the bond market. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see approach, control risks, and pay attention to policy signals and economic data trends [2] Data Analysis - **Yield to Maturity**: The report presents the yield - to - maturity data of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bonds from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [3] - **Funding Rates**: It shows the funding rates including the deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rate for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [3] - **Treasury Bond Term Spreads**: The term spreads of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bonds from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are provided [4][5] - **Treasury Bond Futures Positions**: The positions data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are presented [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures Trading Volume**: The trading volume data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures Basis**: The basis data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are provided with different time ranges [9][10][11][13] - **Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures (current - quarter minus next - quarter) are presented with different time ranges [14][15][16][18] - **Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/08 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are shown [19][20]

Report Summary Core View - The report analyzes the factors affecting the Treasury bond market, suggesting to focus on the layout opportunities of far - month contracts and be aware of the short - term volatility risks caused by the widening basis [2] Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - The funding situation has eased, and the inter - bank liquidity has significantly improved after the impact of the tax period has subsided [2] - The central bank has restarted Treasury bond trading operations, providing direct buying demand for the market [2] Bearish Factors - The economic fundamentals remain weak, and indicators such as investment and exports continue to face pressure [2] - The rise in US Treasury yields exerts external pressure on domestic bond yields [2] Data Analysis Yield and Spread - The report presents the historical data of Treasury bond yields for 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y, as well as the term spreads of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y [3][4][5] Trading Volume and Open Interest - It shows the historical trading volume data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, and also mentions the open interest of Treasury bond futures [8][18] Basis and Spread - The historical basis data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are provided, along with the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of these contracts [9][10][11][17][19] - The cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL are also presented [20][21]