研究报告 Research Report 28 Sep 2025 东南亚必需消费 & 可选消费 Southeast Asia Staples & Discretionary 东南亚消费行业 8 月跟踪报告：各市场股指纷纷收涨，印尼泰国及新加坡通胀放缓 Stock Indexes Rose in ASEAN, Inflation Slowed in Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 市盈率 P/E 股票名称 评级 目标价 PE(2025E) PE(2026E) 资料来源： Factset, HTI Related Reports 东南亚消费行业 7 月跟踪报告：领先指标喜忧参半，越南及泰国消费估值 提升 Leading indicators are a mixed bag, while consumer valuations are up in Vietnam and Thailand (31 Aug 2025) 80 100 120 140 160 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar ...

Core Points - The new round of cross-border investment and financing foreign exchange management reform aims to enhance the convenience of cross-border investment and financing [2][3] - The reform includes measures to simplify processes and reduce institutional costs, particularly in foreign direct investment (FDI) and cross-border financing [3][7] Group 1: Cross-Border Investment Reform - The reform cancels the basic information registration for pre-investment expenses in FDI, allowing foreign investors to directly open accounts and remit funds [3] - The registration for reinvestment by foreign-invested enterprises in China has also been eliminated, enabling direct fund transfers without additional registration [3][6] - The policy has been successfully piloted in certain provinces and is now being implemented nationwide [4] Group 2: Cross-Border Financing Reform - The reform expands the borrowing limits for qualified high-tech, "specialized and innovative," and technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises to $1 million, with a potential increase to $2 million for those selected through an "innovation points system" [7][8] - The registration requirements for cross-border financing have been simplified, removing the need for audited financial reports from the previous year [7][8] - This dual optimization of limits and processes is expected to address the financing challenges faced by innovative enterprises [8] Group 3: Capital Project Income Payment Facilitation - The reform introduces a "pre-settlement and post-supplement" policy for foreign individuals purchasing property in China, allowing them to settle foreign exchange payments before obtaining the necessary purchase registration documents [9][10] - This measure aims to facilitate the housing needs of foreign individuals working and living in China, promoting regional integration and talent mobility [9][11] - The policy, initially piloted in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, is now being expanded nationwide [11]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Kingsoft Holdings in 1H25 exceeded expectations, with significant growth in both total revenue and EBITDA, driven by a recovery in business volume and the introduction of new products [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached $342 million, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27%, recovering to 38% of the level in 1H19 [1]. - Total gaming revenue was $332 million, also reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase and a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase, recovering to 38% of the level in 1H19 [1]. - EBITDA amounted to $200 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 261% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 36%, recovering to 61% of the level in 1H19, surpassing the forecast of $188 million [1]. Development Trends - Infrastructure improvements and increased flight frequency have boosted visitor numbers, driving growth in the mid-market segment [1]. - The number of Chinese tourists visiting Cambodia increased by 51% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter in 1H25, with business travelers increasing by 46% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The new Decho International Airport is set to open in September 2025, with a passenger capacity of 13 million, while the existing Phnom Penh International Airport will cease operations [1]. VIP Business Growth - The direct VIP business turnover increased by 88% year-on-year and 87% quarter-on-quarter in 1H25, driven by the rise in business travelers and expatriates [2]. - The acceleration in foreign direct investment in Cambodia, particularly following Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit in April, has contributed to this growth [2]. Future Plans and Dividend - The Naga 3 project is expected to announce more details in 1H26, with management anticipating more iconic tourist attractions and amenities [2]. - The company declared an interim dividend of $0.0101 per share, corresponding to a 30% payout ratio, compared to a historical level of 60% [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 6%, reaching $406 million and $481 million, respectively [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to 7 times the 2025 EV/EBITDA, with a target price raised by 12% to HKD 6.50, indicating a 12% upside potential from the current price [2].

Core Insights - The Chinese government emphasizes the need to expand high-level openness and stabilize foreign trade and investment, indicating a focus on attracting foreign investment despite challenges in the global economic landscape [1][7]. Group 1: Foreign Direct Investment Trends - China's foreign direct investment (FDI) has been on a downward trend, with significant declines noted in both the international balance of payments and the Ministry of Commerce statistics for 2024, marking the lowest levels since 1993 [2][3]. - In 2024, FDI from the international balance of payments perspective is projected at $18.6 billion, a decrease of $32.8 billion from the previous year, while the Ministry of Commerce reports actual foreign investment at 826.3 billion yuan, down 27.1% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in FDI is attributed to both short-term factors and the broader context of global supply chain restructuring, with significant reductions observed across various sectors, including information technology and manufacturing [3][4]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The restructuring of global supply chains, particularly the "de-China" strategy promoted by Western countries, is reshaping the landscape for foreign investment in China, with a notable decrease in China's share of imports to the U.S. [4][5]. - The shift in investment patterns is evident, with greenfield investments in China dropping significantly while countries like India and Mexico see substantial increases in their FDI [5][6]. Group 3: Policy Responses and Recommendations - In response to the declining foreign investment, the Chinese government has initiated the "2025 Action Plan to Stabilize Foreign Investment," which outlines 20 tasks aimed at enhancing investment promotion and improving service guarantees [7][8]. - Recommendations for stabilizing foreign investment include maintaining free trade, expanding high-level openness, and promoting domestic consumption to leverage China's market size [8].

Economic Growth - Vietnam's GDP growth rate accelerated to 7.96% in Q2 2025, slightly below the 8.56% growth rate in Q2 2022 post-pandemic[5] - The industrial and construction sectors experienced the highest growth at 8.97%, while the service sector grew by 8.46%[5][10] Sector Performance - The agricultural sector's contribution to GDP decreased to 9.6%, with a growth rate of 3.89%[9] - The industrial sector accounted for 36.5% of GDP, with manufacturing leading at a growth rate of 10.75%[10][14] Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) - FDI registered a total of approximately $21.5 billion, marking a 41.7% increase compared to the same period in 2024[21] - The FDI disbursement rate improved by 8.12% year-on-year, reaching $11.72 billion in H1 2025[21] Trade and Retail - Total trade volume in Q2 reached $229.1 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a trade surplus of $2.9 billion in June[25] - Retail sales in June grew by approximately 8.3%, with goods retail growth slowing to 6.7%[17] Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation rose to 3.56% in June, with healthcare and housing costs contributing significantly to price increases[27] - Economic risks include potential declines in demand from major economies and uncertainties in trade policies[12][30]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to introduce a new batch of major foreign investment projects and a revised "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries" to enhance the attraction and utilization of foreign capital [1] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - In the first five months of this year, 24,018 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in China, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [1] - The actual utilized foreign capital amounted to 358.19 billion RMB (49.88 billion USD), showing a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [1] - Despite the decline in average investment scale per foreign direct investment (FDI) enterprise, China remains a significant destination for foreign direct investment [1] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To enhance foreign direct investment and reinvestment, it is essential to maintain a stable macroeconomic environment and ensure stable capital returns [2] - Stabilizing the exchange rate and utilizing hedging products and tools are recommended to help foreign investors mitigate exchange rate risks [2] Group 3: Policy Implementation - There is a need to improve policy execution efficiency and strengthen inter-departmental collaboration to ensure policies are effectively implemented at the grassroots level [1] - Enhanced communication and understanding of policies among foreign enterprises are crucial for them to fully benefit from policy incentives [1] - A series of policy measures is expected to further increase China's attractiveness to foreign capital and enhance the innovative capabilities of foreign enterprises in the Chinese market [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary discussed the overall relationship with Japan, indicating that the 15% tariff on Japanese automobiles represents a different category of agreement [1] - Japan has proposed an innovative solution regarding the 15% automobile tariff [2] - Japan's approach includes partnerships, equity, and credit guarantees, which facilitated the acquisition of the 15% tariff through an innovative financing mechanism [3] Group 2 - Japan's foreign direct investment commitments are entirely new capital [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first half of the year, outbound direct investment reached 1.46 trillion yuan, while foreign direct investment amounted to 2.65 trillion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The World Bank indicates that trade tensions, uncertainty, and heightened geopolitical risks are impacting the outlook for foreign direct investment (FDI) [1] - The current global environment is characterized by increased volatility, which is likely to deter potential investors [1] - The report highlights that these factors could lead to a decline in FDI flows, affecting economic growth in various regions [1] Group 2 - The World Bank emphasizes the need for countries to enhance their investment climates to attract FDI amidst these challenges [1] - It suggests that policy measures aimed at reducing uncertainty and improving trade relations could help mitigate the negative impacts on FDI [1] - The report calls for international cooperation to address the underlying issues contributing to trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1]

Core Insights - Qatar's Investment Promotion Agency (Invest Qatar) released its 2024 Annual Report, highlighting strong investment growth, frequent global interactions, and ongoing progress in establishing Qatar as a leading global business hub [2][3] Investment Highlights - In 2024, Qatar attracted $2.74 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) across 241 projects, creating 9,348 jobs [2] - Among these projects, 12 were from China, with total investments exceeding $41 million, generating 353 jobs [2] - The automotive original equipment manufacturing (OEM) and consumer electronics sectors attracted the most foreign investment, followed by business services, software and IT services, transportation, and warehousing [2] Economic Strategy - The achievements reflect Qatar's accelerated economic transformation under the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3), with 95% of FDI directed towards greenfield projects, showcasing Qatar's commitment to economic diversification [2] Leadership Statements - Sheikh Faisal bin Thani Al Thani emphasized Qatar's progress towards a sustainable, innovative, and secure future, reaffirming efforts to attract high-quality investments and enhance economic resilience [3] - Sheikh Ali Alwaleed Al Thani noted 2024 as another successful year for the Investment Promotion Agency, highlighting significant achievements in attracting over 30 companies and launching innovative digital tools like Ai.SHA [3] Competitive Positioning - Qatar's business environment has improved, with notable advancements in international competitiveness, ranking 11th in the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, 28th in the Global Economic Freedom Index, and 24th in the DHL Global Connectedness Index [3] - In logistics and infrastructure, Qatar ranked 14th in the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index for logistics capability and 19th for logistics infrastructure [3]