2025 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) | 研究所： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 马川琪 | S0350523050001 | | | | | macq@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 丁婧欣 | S0350124040002 | | | | dingjx@ghzq.com.cn | | [Table_Title] 线下门店快速扩张，大单品策略稳步推进 ——新氧（SY）2025Q3 业绩点评报告 最近一年走势 相对标普 500 表现 | 1M | | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新氧 | 0.32% | -18.77% | 266.95% | | 标普 500 | -1.38% | 4.27% | 12.26% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/11/19 | | 当前价格（美元） | | | 3.16 | | 52 周价格区间（美元） | | | 0.67-6.28 | | 总市值（百万美元） | | | 423.66 | | 流通市值（百万美 ...

Core Insights - Yum China is focusing on operational efficiency and menu innovation to reshape its RGM strategy, aiming to double its store count by 2030 [1][4] - The company has set ambitious growth targets for its brands, including KFC and Pizza Hut, with plans to expand significantly in the coming years [1][4] - Pizza Hut has achieved 11 consecutive quarters of same-store traffic growth, indicating a successful strategy in enhancing customer engagement [2][4] Store Expansion Goals - Yum China plans to increase KFC's store count by approximately one-third to over 17,000 by 2028 [1] - Pizza Hut aims to add over 600 new stores annually, crossing the 6,000 store mark by 2028 [1] - K Coffee is expected to grow from over 1,800 locations to over 5,000 by 2029 [1] Menu and Product Strategy - The company has successfully launched over 100 products with annual sales exceeding 100 million RMB, showcasing its focus on high-performing items [2] - Pizza Hut has reduced its product line from 105 to under 80, focusing on high-demand items like the 10-inch handmade thin crust pizza [2][3] - KFC's menu innovations include affordable options like the 10.9 to 14.9 RMB Huangmen Chicken Rice, targeting budget-conscious consumers [11][13] Operational Efficiency - The average investment return period for new stores has been reduced from three years to 2-3 years [5] - The introduction of AI systems aims to enhance operational efficiency, with a target of achieving a restaurant profit margin of at least 16.7% by 2028 [12] Market Positioning - Yum China is strategically targeting lower-tier cities to expand its market presence, with a focus on affordability and accessibility [5][11] - The company is leveraging its supply chain efficiency to maintain competitive pricing while ensuring profitability [7][9] Financial Performance and Goals - Pizza Hut's restaurant profit margin was reported at 12% last year, with a slight increase to 13.3% and 13.4% in Q2 and Q3 of this year [3][4] - The company aims for Pizza Hut's operating profit to double by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate target of 15-17% [4][12]

智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，2025年三季度，运动服饰行业受暖秋与消费疲软影响，需求 分化明显，跑步/户外品类维持高景气，线上渠道好于线下；家纺行业整体复苏势头温和，但龙头公司 凭借大单品策略实现超越行业的增长，其中水星家纺成功推出的"雪糕被""人体工学枕"等科技功能单 品，直接驱动收入提速。此外，服装行业低基数下缓慢复苏，男装板块整体稳健，但利润端有所承压； 女装板块显现回暖迹象，费用优化是关键。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 运动服饰：需求分化，龙头韧性凸显 服装行业：25Q3低基数下缓慢复苏，期待Q4旺季去库 男装板块整体稳健，但利润端有所承压。25Q3海澜之家收入与利润均小幅增长、主业稳健托底，新业 态与海外业务快速扩张；比音勒芬收入微增但利润承压；报喜鸟收入正增长但利润下滑较多；九牧王收 入下滑。女装板块显现回暖迹象，费用优化是关键。25Q3地素时尚单季利润恢复双位数增长；歌力思 整体收入下滑但预计国内可比口径增长、利润扭亏；欣贺收入高增10%，但利润端压力较大；锦泓收入 微跌，但预计IP授权以及云锦业务保持高速增长。大众休闲仍在调整阶段。森马Q3收入与利润双增、 费用控制改善，Q4开局良好； ...

Core Viewpoint - Proya Cosmetics has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the largest domestic cosmetics group in China with a dual listing [6][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - Proya was founded in 2003 by Hou Junchen and his brother-in-law Fang Youyou, and has emerged as a leading domestic brand in the face of competition from international giants [6][13]. - The company achieved a revenue of 107.8 billion yuan in 2024, becoming the first domestic cosmetics brand to surpass the 100 billion yuan mark [6][18]. - Proya's stock price has increased from 15.3 yuan per share at its IPO in 2017 to around 70 yuan recently [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Proya's revenue from 2022 to 2025 is reported as follows: 63.85 billion yuan (2022), 89.05 billion yuan (2023), 107.78 billion yuan (2024), and 53.62 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [18]. - The company's profit for the same periods was 8.31 billion yuan (2022), 12.31 billion yuan (2023), 15.85 billion yuan (2024), and 8.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [18]. - However, in Q3 2025, Proya's revenue fell to 17.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.63%, marking the lowest growth in five years [19]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Proya has launched a mid-term dividend plan, proposing to distribute 8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 315 million yuan, which is the highest mid-term dividend ratio since its listing [6][18]. - The company is focusing on a "Double Ten Strategy" to enter the top ten global cosmetics companies within the next decade, with plans for acquisitions and international expansion [23]. - Proya is actively pursuing a dual listing in Hong Kong to enhance its international financing capabilities and support overseas market expansion [23]. Group 4: Market Position and Trends - Proya's online sales have surged, with online revenue accounting for 95.06% of total sales by 2024, reflecting a significant shift towards e-commerce [14][20]. - The company has adopted a "big single product strategy" to upgrade its product line, with successful products like the Ruby Essence and Dual Anti-Aging Essence [14][15]. - The brand has also positioned itself as a scientific skincare leader, investing heavily in R&D, with expenditures of 1.28 billion yuan, 1.74 billion yuan, and 2.1 billion yuan over recent years [15]. Group 5: Leadership Transition - The next generation of leadership is emerging, with Hou Junchen's son, Hou Yameng, taking over as general manager in September 2024, marking a significant transition for the company [22]. - The management changes and performance fluctuations have led to a decline in Proya's stock price, which has dropped over 13% since the beginning of the year [23].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a revenue increase of 25.5% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 2.13% [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.45 billion yuan, with a net profit of 240 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 690 million yuan, reflecting a 14.3% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 69.48 million yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year [1]. - The non-recurring net profit decreased by 20% year-on-year in Q3 [1]. Segment Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue by product category was as follows: eye care (150 million yuan, +20%), skincare (310 million yuan, +42%), cleansing (70 million yuan, +23%), and beauty products (150 million yuan, -27%) [2]. - The main brand is expected to maintain good growth, while the sub-brand "Lianhuo" is under pressure [2]. - Average prices for skincare products increased due to a higher sales proportion of eye care products and a decrease in lower-priced eye care product sales [2]. Profitability Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2025, the net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 10% [2]. - Gross margin slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points to 74.9% [2]. - The increase in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios contributed to a total expense ratio increase of 3.1 percentage points [2]. Investment Outlook - The company continues to implement a big product strategy, with its two main brands, "Marubi" and "Lianhuo," showing sustained growth [3]. - New products like "Little Gold Needle Cream" and "Little Gold Needle Mask" are expected to contribute to growth [3]. - EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.95, 1.12, and 1.29 yuan per share, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.45 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 240 million yuan, up 2.13% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 690 million yuan, a 14.3% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 69.48 million yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit saw a decline of 20% year-on-year [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.5 billion yuan from eye care products, 3.1 billion yuan from skincare, 0.7 billion yuan from cleansing products, and 1.5 billion yuan from beauty products, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 42%, 23%, and -27% respectively. The main brand is expected to maintain good growth, while the beauty category is under pressure [9]. Profitability Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 10%. This was attributed to a slight increase in gross margin by 0.3 percentage points to 74.9%, while sales, management, and R&D expense ratios increased by a total of 3.1 percentage points [9]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue its large product strategy, with the main brands, Marubi and Lianhuo, maintaining growth momentum. New products such as the "Little Gold Needle" cream and mask are being introduced, indicating significant growth potential. The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.95, 1.12, and 1.29 yuan per share respectively, with a "Buy" rating maintained [9].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic beauty market in 2025 is experiencing a "growth cold wave," with many leading companies facing revenue declines or significantly slowed growth. However, Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (Marubi) has reported impressive growth, achieving a 25.51% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters, making it one of the few companies in the industry to achieve both revenue and profit growth during this challenging period [2][3]. Industry Overview - The beauty industry is entering a competitive phase characterized by slow consumer recovery and peak channel benefits. Rational consumption has become mainstream, making growth for leading companies increasingly difficult [5]. - Among eight leading domestic beauty companies, four reported a year-on-year revenue decline, with three experiencing declines exceeding 10%. Marubi stands out with a significant revenue increase of 25.51% [8][9]. Financial Performance of Marubi - Marubi's revenue for the first three quarters reached 2.450 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.51%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 686 million yuan, up 14.28% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 244 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.13% [11][12]. - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.589 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 132.19%, indicating that revenue growth is supported by actual sales collections [13]. Growth Drivers - Marubi's growth is attributed to internal factors rather than external market benefits, focusing on product, cost, and operational improvements. The company has optimized its product structure and upgraded to higher-end products, particularly in the eye care category, which saw a price increase of 52.83% year-on-year [14][16][18]. - The skincare category has become the primary revenue driver, contributing 306 million yuan in Q3, aligning with Marubi's strategy to transition from an eye care expert to a leader in comprehensive anti-aging solutions [19]. Cost Management and R&D - Marubi has implemented refined cost control through bulk purchasing and the use of quality domestic raw materials, enhancing profitability and pricing flexibility. The company has balanced marketing expenses and R&D investments, with sales expenses increasing by 32.09% and R&D expenses growing by 15.34% [20]. - The company has maintained a strong focus on technological innovation, receiving multiple awards and patents, which solidifies its competitive edge in the market [23]. Strategic Positioning - Marubi's strategic upgrades encompass brand positioning, technological development, and product matrix enhancements, providing sustained momentum for growth. The company has shifted its branding to emphasize anti-aging and has engaged well-known celebrities to enhance brand recognition [22][24]. - The company has achieved significant recognition in the market, being named the top brand in several product categories, which reflects its effective "R&D-product-market" closed-loop strategy [26][29]. Conclusion - Marubi's performance in Q3 2025 not only highlights its financial growth but also underscores its strategic advantages in product structure, operational efficiency, and market positioning. The company's transition from a marketing-driven to a technology-driven approach is crucial for sustaining competitive advantages in a challenging industry landscape [30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.054 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 91 million yuan, up 43.2% year-on-year [1] - The online sales channel is the main growth driver, with online revenue growing approximately 20% year-on-year, accounting for over 55% of total revenue [2] - The gross margin significantly improved to 44.7% in Q3 2025, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades and a decrease in raw material costs [3] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 2.976 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and a net profit of 232 million yuan, up 10.7% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 22.3% [1] - The company forecasts revenues of 4.593 billion yuan, 4.926 billion yuan, and 5.274 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 394 million yuan, 429 million yuan, and 462 million yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Proya achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.03 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a 2.7% increase, although Q3 saw a decline of 23.6% in net profit to 230 million yuan, indicating slight pressure on performance [1] Financial Performance - Proya's net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 was 1.03 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the net profit dropped to 230 million yuan, down 23.6% compared to the previous year [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to strengthen its "big single product strategy" and is upgrading core products while focusing on the development of new strategic products [1] - New product launches include the dual anti-aging eye cream 3.0, energy series 2.0, ruby mask 3.0, and a new ruby single-use product [1] Brand Development - Proya is pursuing a multi-brand and multi-category collaborative development strategy, with the innovative category brand "Original Color Pot" rapidly capturing market share in its niche [1] - The brand "Caitang" is focusing on the philosophy of "Chinese makeup, original beauty" to solidify its differentiated brand positioning [1] - The brand "Off&Relax" is deepening its penetration in the core shampoo category, enhancing its fragrance characteristics and therapeutic effects [1] Market Performance - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, Proya topped the Tmall sales chart within four hours, with GMV exceeding 460 million yuan in the first four hours of Li Jiaqi's beauty livestream [1] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic beauty brand, with a strong performance during Double Eleven and a reasonable valuation, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Shanghai Jahwa, indicating an expectation of outperforming the market in the next 12-18 months [19]. Core Insights - Shanghai Jahwa has demonstrated significant financial performance in 2025, with a revenue increase of 10.83% year-on-year to RMB 4.961 billion for the first nine months, and a notable 28.29% increase in Q3 revenue to RMB 1.483 billion [7][8]. - The company's gross profit margin improved to 62.81% for the first nine months, up 3.39 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin reaching 61.48%, a substantial increase of 6.99 percentage points [7][8]. - Net profit surged by 149.12% year-on-year to RMB 405 million for the first nine months, with a net profit margin of 8.17% [7][8]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The strong growth in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to the cosmetics segment, which saw a remarkable 272% year-on-year growth, driven by a clear hero product strategy and effective new product launches [2][8]. - The personal care, cosmetics, innovation, and overseas divisions reported revenues of RMB 606 million, RMB 354 million, RMB 158 million, and RMB 365 million respectively in Q3, with cosmetics leading the growth [2][8]. Product Strategy and Market Position - The company focused on developing blockbuster products such as Herborist White Clay Mask and Dr. Yu Barrier Repair Cream, which have significantly contributed to sales and customer acquisition [2][8]. - New product launches, including Herborist Immortal Grass Oil, have quickly gained market traction, positioning them as key growth drivers for the future [3][9]. Future Outlook - Shanghai Jahwa aims to maintain a double-digit revenue growth trend and is confident in achieving a turnaround in operating profit for the full year [11]. - The company expects further gross margin improvement of 3-5 percentage points, driven by new product contributions and ongoing cost efficiencies [11]. - Specific business targets include achieving RMB 100 million GMV for Herborist Immortal Grass Oil and Dr. Yu Body Lotion by 2026, with a strategic goal of over 20% revenue growth [11].