Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, and the overall view is to oscillate, with the core logic being weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1] - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is that the downside risk of treasury bond futures has eased, and there is strong support below. The medium - and long - term upward logic is solid, but short - term driving force is limited, so they will mainly oscillate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term (within one week) view is oscillation, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation with a strong bias, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak and expectations of monetary easing are rising [1] Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillation with a strong bias, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the overall view is oscillation. Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated. Recently, overseas geopolitical factors have cooled, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the downside risk of treasury bonds has eased in the short term. Coupled with the central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open market, there is strong support below treasury bond futures. In terms of monetary policy expectations, May's credit and inflation data were weak, requiring a loose monetary environment for policy support, so the medium - and long - term upward logic of treasury bond futures is solid. However, subsequent policies need guidance from the important meeting in July, and short - term driving force is expected to be limited [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with an upward mid - term trend and a slightly stronger intraday trend. The policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, but the short - term policy driving force is insufficient [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the mid - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is that the domestic macro - economic indicators have weakened marginally recently, and the weak performance of credit and inflation data indicates that there is still downward pressure on domestic demand. More policies to support demand are needed, so the expectation of policy benefits has increased. However, there is no clear policy signal in the short term, and the incremental policy signals are expected to come out after the Politburo meeting in July. Although the market sentiment has recovered, the short - term policy driving force is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the overseas uncertainties such as the Middle East situation and the Sino - US tariff war [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content in the provided report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that macroeconomic indicators are weak and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The market has a strong expectation of medium - to - long - term interest rate cuts due to weakening macroeconomic indicators and the Fed's expected rate cuts. However, the short - term expectation of further rate cuts is weak, so the short - term is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the weak macroeconomic indicators and the increasing expectation of monetary easing [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range. There is a strong expectation of medium - to - long - term interest rate cuts because of weakening macroeconomic indicators and the Fed's expected rate cuts. But the short - term expectation of further rate cuts is weak as the effect of the May rate cut needs to be tested and the second - half macro - policies await the guidance of the July Politburo meeting. So, the short - term is expected to be in oscillating consolidation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the stronger side". The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak, and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the stronger side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures closed up in oscillation. The 6 - month LPR announced by the central bank was in line with market expectations, but the market expects future LPR cuts. In the long - term, the logic of upward - trending treasury bonds is solid due to moderately loose monetary policy, but in the short - term, the possibility of interest - rate cuts is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bonds has not been released. So, in the short - term, treasury bond futures are expected to remain in oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Time - period definitions: Short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1]. - For the TL2509 variety, short - term is "oscillation", medium - term is "oscillation", intraday is "oscillation on the stronger side", overall view is "oscillation", and the core logic is weak macro - economic indicators and rising monetary easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market - Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the stronger side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation" [5]. - Last Friday, treasury bond futures closed up in oscillation. The 6 - month LPR announced by the central bank was in line with market expectations, but the market expects future LPR cuts because of weakening macro - economic indicators and the need for a loose monetary environment for macro - policies in the second half of the year, as well as the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and reduced exchange - rate pressure. In the long - term, the upward logic of treasury bonds is solid due to moderately loose monetary policy, but in the short - term, the possibility of interest - rate cuts is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bonds has not been released. Short - term treasury bond futures are expected to remain in oscillation [5].

Group 1: Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that macro - economic indicators are weak, and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1] Group 2: Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that yesterday, treasury bond futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend. The latest macro - economic data indicates that economic growth momentum has slowed, external tariff impacts are emerging, and domestic demand's endogenous momentum is insufficient. Future monetary policy needs to be more accommodative to support economic demand. However, in the short term, the policy interest rate was not cut in June as the effect of the May rate cut remains to be verified. The expectation of a rate cut may need to wait for the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July and the Fed's monetary policy. The possibility of a short - term rate cut is low. In general, treasury bond futures will remain in an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]

1. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures showed a volatile consolidation trend. The latest macroeconomic data indicates that the economic growth momentum has slowed down, the impact of external tariffs has begun to emerge, and the endogenous momentum of domestic demand is insufficient. In the future, a relatively loose monetary policy is needed to support economic demand. However, in the short term, the policy interest rate was not lowered in June because the effect of the interest rate cut in May remains to be verified. The expectation of an interest rate cut may need to wait for the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July and the observation of the monetary policy trends of the overseas Federal Reserve. The possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is relatively low. Overall, Treasury bond futures will remain in a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term [2] 2. Industry News and Related Charts - On June 19, the People's Bank of China announced that it conducted 203.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations through a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method. Both the bid volume and the winning bid volume were 203.5 billion yuan, and the operating interest rate was 1.40%. Data shows that there were 119.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 84.2 billion yuan in the open market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that the market will mainly show range - bound fluctuations, with the upper and lower limits of the index being relatively limited. The mid - term view is that the stock index will rise, and the intraday view is that it will be strong with a bias towards range - bound movement [1][4]. - The core logic is that the latest macro - economic indicators are weak, which increases the expectation of policy support. The market has strong bottom - support forces, and the negative impact of the tariff war has a weak marginal effect, resulting in low short - term downward risks. However, due to the market's wait - and - see attitude, the short - term upward momentum of the stock index is also limited [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2506 variety, the short - term view is range - bound, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is strong with a bias towards range - bound movement, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the expectation of policy benefits provides strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is strong with a bias towards range - bound movement, the mid - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the market sentiment has returned to calm after the lack of further substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade measures. The weak macro - economic indicators increase the expectation of policy support, and the market has strong bottom - support forces. The negative impact of the tariff war has a weak marginal effect, and the short - term downward risk is low. The market is waiting for policy guidance, and attention can be paid to the Lujiazui Forum on June 18. Due to the wait - and - see attitude, the short - term upward momentum of the stock index is limited [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, and the overall view is oscillation, with the core logic being the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued narrow - range oscillation and consolidation yesterday. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, and the consultation result is highly uncertain. Due to the deepening of the uncertainty of tariff prospects and the marginal weakening of domestic macro - economic indicators, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged. The market's expectation of future easing policies will rise, providing strong support at the bottom of treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the effect of monetary tools may be less than that of fiscal tools, so the possibility of boosting demand through continuous interest rate cuts in the short term is not high [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the consumption service industry, technology, and cyclical leaders, driven by macroeconomic expectations and microeconomic improvements. Key indicators show a slight recovery in manufacturing PMI and industrial output growth, suggesting potential for cost reductions in midstream manufacturing leaders and value in undervalued sectors like petrochemicals and new consumption [9][10][11] - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed financials, cyclicals, and consumer sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 1.1857 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity and risk appetite [12][20] - The report notes that 25 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification saw gains, with telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics leading the way, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors experienced declines [20][23] Group 2 - The report discusses the liquidity management strategy of the central bank, which is focused on maintaining stability by "shortening and lengthening" liquidity provisions. This includes net withdrawals through OMO and reverse repos, indicating a balanced approach to short and long-term liquidity [10][21][22] - It mentions that the yields on government bonds have slightly decreased due to ample liquidity, with 1-year and 10-year government bond yields at 1.41% and 1.65%, respectively, reflecting a stable interest rate environment [12][25] - The report also highlights the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, which are influenced by contrasting employment data, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.04% and 4.51%, respectively, indicating market sensitivity to economic indicators [28][29] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of major commodities, noting that crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum prices have increased, driven by easing trade relations and OPEC+ production adjustments [12][13][32] - It highlights the significant rebound in crude oil prices, which reached $64.58 per barrel, and the increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.41 million barrels per day, reflecting a robust energy sector [32][39] - The report also discusses the dynamics of the gold market, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, impacting gold prices amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [12][13][32]

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets rose overall, with Hong Kong and US stocks leading the gains[1] - Major commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum also saw price increases[1] - The US dollar index fell slightly, while the offshore RMB and euro appreciated, and the yen depreciated[1] Domestic Equity Market - As of June 6, the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 11,857 billion RMB, up from 10,699 billion RMB[2] - Among the 31 sectors tracked, 25 sectors rose, with telecommunications (+5.27%), non-ferrous metals (+3.74%), and electronics (+3.60%) leading the gains[2] - Conversely, household appliances (-1.79%), food and beverage (-1.06%), and transportation (-0.54%) saw declines[2] Interest Rates and Currency Exchange - The People's Bank of China adopted a "short-term collection and long-term release" liquidity management strategy, leading to a decrease in short-term liquidity demand[2] - The 1Y government bond yield fell by 4.5 basis points to 1.41%, while the 10Y yield decreased by 1.65 basis points to 1.6547%[1] - The offshore RMB appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar, closing at 7.1885[2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, but rose by 0.5 percentage points in May[2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 3.0% year-on-year in April[2] - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 in April to 49.6 in May, indicating a contraction in manufacturing output globally[2] Commodity Trends - Crude oil prices rebounded significantly due to easing trade relations and OPEC+ moderate production increases[1] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 14.63% month-on-month to 62,300 units[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 15.2% week-on-week, indicating improved shipping demand[1]