在岗位设置上，本次招聘会同样亮点纷呈，覆盖了从基层操作到中高层管理的多个职业层级。无论 是寻求稳定发展的管理、行政、财务、人事岗位，还是专注业务拓展的采购、客服、营销岗位；无论是 需要专业技能的质检员、技术员、机械设计工程师、设备维修工程师、生物技术岗位，还是紧跟行业趋 势的外贸、房产经纪人、医疗岗位；抑或是顺应新媒体潮流的主播、视频剪辑、新媒体运营岗位，以及 面向应届毕业生的管培生岗位，还有需求量大的配送理货员、仓储物流主管、司机、厨师、普工、导购 等岗位，多元化的岗位供给，将充分满足各类求职者的就业需求，助力大家找到心仪的职业方向。 截至目前，已有食创空间科技发展有限公司、河南天昱环保工程有限公司、河南光之源光电科技有 限公司、郑州昕动互娱文化传媒有限公司、好想你集团等众多企业报名参加。 值得一提的是，本次招聘会不仅聚焦就业岗位对接，还精心策划了多项特色活动。现场将举办"短 剧演员现场海选活动"，为有表演梦想、热爱文艺的求职者提供一个展示自我的舞台，说不定下一个荧 幕新星就从这里诞生；同时，还将开展手工钩织免费培训活动，求职者可以现场学习实用手工技能，拓 宽就业渠道，掌握一技之长，为未来就业增添更多可能性 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that while AI has significantly boosted productivity in the U.S. economy by 1.3%, the Federal Reserve remains hesitant to adjust interest rates, contrasting with the decisive actions taken during the 1990s under Greenspan [1][4][6] - The rapid adoption of AI is highlighted, with its penetration into various industries occurring in just three years, compared to six years for smartphones, indicating a transformative impact on productivity [6][4] - The productivity gains from AI are compared to the internet boom of the 1990s, suggesting that the current AI revolution could provide a similar economic boost if managed correctly [6][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to capitalize on AI's productivity gains is attributed to concerns over potential job losses, particularly in entry-level positions, as AI technologies tend to focus on "reducing workforce" rather than expanding it [9][11] - The technology sector is experiencing a paradox where it contributes significantly to economic growth while simultaneously reducing employment, with over 89,000 jobs reportedly replaced by AI last year [11] - The lack of high-quality data on AI's economic impact poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve in formulating effective policies, as existing research is often based on flawed information [13] Group 3 - The current political climate and the sensitive nature of policy decisions are factors in the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, especially with inflation still above target levels and a transitional leadership in place [15] - Despite some support for AI's potential to enhance productivity among Federal Reserve candidates, there is a general reluctance to implement policies that could risk economic stability [18][20] - The ongoing debate about AI's role in the economy is just beginning, with various stakeholders expressing differing levels of optimism and caution regarding its future impact [17][20]

#报告 富国银行2026年度宏观展望：关税高峰后，通胀和就业压力继续主导美联储；中国GDP或降至4.3%；AI热潮继续 https://t.co/pAiDiPwGDtNone (@None):None ...

"鹰派大战"中美联储内部本就分歧重重，如今又遇到了新难题。 美国东部时间11月19日，美联储公布了10月28日至29日的货币政策会议纪要，决策者对12月是否继续降 息存在较大分歧。彼时美联储主席鲍威尔在利率决议后的新闻发布会上表示，12月降息并非板上钉钉。 美联储货币政策本就踌躇不定，关键数据的缺失让未来笼罩了更深的阴霾。美国劳工统计局表示不会发 布10月非农就业报告，并将11月非农的发布日期调整至12月16日，比美联储12月利率决议还要晚。 如今，利率市场的交易员们对12月降息已经不抱太大希望。芝商所美联储观察工具显示，美联储12月降 息的可能性仅约为30%。在数据迷雾下，美联储更好的选择可能是"停飞"而不是"盲飞"。 会议纪要分歧重重 在最新美联储会议纪要中，一系列微妙信号需要密切关注。 中泰证券研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅对21世纪经济报道记者分析称，10月FOMC会议纪要释放了三 大信号。一是鹰派倾向。尽管参会者几乎一致认为应该停止缩表，但在利率方面，越来越多的官员因为 担忧通胀下降的进展，对继续宽松持谨慎的观点，这种变化在边际上呈现出了鹰派倾向。 二是美联储内部分歧严重。会议纪要提到，一些（Seve ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, but there is increasing public divergence among policymakers regarding the future direction of monetary policy [2][5]. Group 1: Divergence Among Federal Reserve Officials - Several regional Fed presidents have expressed differing views on inflation, employment, and interest rates, indicating rising uncertainty in the monetary policy path [2]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester advocates for maintaining current interest rates, citing persistent high inflation affecting low- and middle-income families, and suggests that the neutral rate may be higher than commonly estimated [2]. - St. Louis Fed President Bullard supports a cautious approach to rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation remains above the 2% target and that policy should maintain some restrictiveness [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Bullard's expectation of a "strong rebound" in the economy in the first quarter of next year supports his cautious stance on rate cuts [3]. - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expresses reservations about the October rate cut decision, stating that he did not support it given the strong economic performance at that time, and emphasizes a data-driven approach for future meetings [4]. - The market's reaction indicates uncertainty, with interest rate futures pricing showing nearly a 50% chance of another rate cut in December, reflecting the complex economic situation facing the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Economic Data and Future Policy Decisions - The divergence among Fed officials highlights the complexity of the U.S. economy, where inflation pressures remain, the labor market requires support, and economic prospects are variable [5]. - The differing conclusions drawn by Fed presidents based on their focus on various economic data points may become clearer with upcoming economic data releases [5].

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is officially released, guiding future focus areas. Sino-US economic and trade teams reach a phased consensus in Kuala Lumpur, reducing tariff policy disturbances and boosting market risk appetite [2]. - The manufacturing PMI declines marginally, indicating weakening supply and demand, and the economy still needs policy support. Overseas, after the US interest rate cut, the focus shifts to employment and inflation during the US government shutdown [2]. - The US "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations, with stagnant wage growth and marginal stabilization in employment [2]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1219 on November 6, up 27 points from the previous trading day [3]. - It is expected that the US dollar against the RMB spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. The key technical level of 7.10 is crucial for short - term exchange rate trends [4]. Group 3: Stock Index - The stock index closed up collectively in the previous trading day, with the CSI 300 index rising 1.43%. The trading volume in the two markets rebounded by 18.2906 billion yuan [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate due to intensified external disturbances and increased sensitivity to external risks in the domestic market [5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - On Thursday, medium - and long - term treasury bond futures declined, while short - term bonds stabilized. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% [5]. - Short - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate, and if the bond market corrects due to the rumored public fund fee new regulations, it may present a buying opportunity [6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (Europe Line) - On November 6, the container shipping index (Europe line) futures market closed down across the board, with the main contract EC2512 performing weakly. The shipping futures led the decline, with the container shipping index (Europe line) falling 3.91% [8]. - Short - term container shipping futures for the Europe line are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, driven by the game between the expectation of Red Sea route resumption and spot demand [10]. Group 6: Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate and consolidate. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79% [12]. - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost precious metal prices, but in the short - term, it is in an adjustment phase. In November, it is difficult to have strong drivers [15]. Group 7: Copper - Overnight, Comex copper closed at $4.97 per pound, up 0.19%; LME copper closed at $10687 per ton, down 0.1%; SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,690 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [16]. - When the copper price falls to around 85,000 yuan per ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases significantly, but whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation [17]. Group 8: Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 21,665 yuan per ton, up 1.29% month - on - month; LME aluminum closed at $2843 per ton, down 0.09% month - on - month [18]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina prices are expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [20][21]. Group 9: Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 22,675 yuan per ton. The price of zinc is expected to be strongly volatile, with sufficient bottom support in November [21]. Group 10: Tin - The main contract of SHFE tin closed at 283,400 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with a stable resistance level at 290,000 yuan [21]. Group 11: Lead - The main contract of SHFE lead closed at 17,430 yuan per ton in the previous trading day. Short - term lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level due to supply shortages [23]. Group 12: Black Metals - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the anti - dumping investigation of hot - rolled steel sheets may put pressure on far - month contracts. Hot - rolled coil inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to abundant supply and weak demand. There are opportunities to short at high prices after valuation repair [27][28]. - Coking coal and coke are in short supply in the spot market, and long - short spreads are strengthening. In the short term, prices may face adjustment, and in the long term, they are suitable for long positions in the black metal sector [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate due to high inventory and weak demand, with support from the cost side [30][31]. Group 13: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors as potential upward risks, and will be suppressed by fundamentals in the long term [33][34]. - LPG prices are expected to fluctuate, with unclear short - term drivers and a lack of upward momentum [35][36]. - PX - PTA prices are expected to be relatively strongly volatile. PX is expected to maintain a relatively strong position, and PTA may have support below a processing fee of 230 on the disk [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chip prices are expected to rebound slightly following the cost of coal in the short term, with an expected trading range of 3750 - 4150 [40][42]. - PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43][45]. - PE prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure and weak demand support [46][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are likely to be weak, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [49][50]. - Fuel oil prices' high - sulfur cracking is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to taking profits. Low - sulfur fuel oil prices' fundamentals are improving [51][53]. - Asphalt prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm [54][55]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be limited in upward movement due to high - supply expectations and cost support. Glass prices may face downward pressure in the 01 contract but have cost support and policy expectations in the long term. Caustic soda prices may face market pressure as production recovers [56][59]. Group 14: Pulp and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to be relatively volatile in the short term. Pulp prices are supported by raw material price increases, and offset paper prices are supported by cost factors [60][61]. Group 15: Logs - Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The current main strategy is to short at high prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 01 - 03 spread in the medium - to long - term [62][63]. Group 16: Propylene - Propylene prices are expected to remain weak due to a loose supply situation and weak terminal demand [64][65]. Group 17: Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be supported by improving demand during the peak season. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but short - to medium - term focus is on fundamentals [66]. - Oilseed prices' upward trend is delayed. Imported soybeans' buying sentiment is reduced, and domestic soybean meal has a high inventory. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter [67][68]. - Edible oil prices are waiting for opportunities after negative factors are exhausted. Palm oil has supply pressure, soybean oil has inventory pressure but cost support, and rapeseed oil supply concerns remain [69]. - Soybean No. 1 prices are recommended for short - term observation. The market has entered a bullish trend, and short positions should be avoided [71]. - Corn and starch prices show signs of upward breakthrough, but attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in the external market [72][73].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment has mixed impacts on the non - ferrous metals sector. The US economic data shows signs of weakness, but the market risk appetite has recovered to some extent. The short - term price trends of different non - ferrous metals vary, with some facing downward pressure and others showing a tendency to fluctuate strongly or at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **LME (USD/ton)**: The prices of lead, zinc, nickel, tin, and copper all decreased, with lead down 2.5%, zinc down 0.25%, nickel down 0.2%, tin down 0.7%, and copper down 1.43% in spot prices. The 15:00 futures prices also mostly decreased, such as lead down 1.92%, zinc down 1.47%, etc. [1] - **SHFE (CNY/ton)**: The prices of zinc, aluminum, lead, and tin all decreased, with zinc down 0.49%, aluminum down 0.88%, lead down 0.93%, and tin down 1.44% in spot prices. The futures prices also showed different degrees of decline [1]. 3.2 Inventory Indicators - **LME (tons)**: The copper inventory increased by 0.06%, zinc inventory increased by 0.52%, nickel inventory increased by 0.15%, and tin inventory increased by 2.8%. [1] - **SHFE (tons)**: The copper inventory increased by 10.83%, zinc inventory decreased by 5.27%, aluminum inventory decreased by 3.89%, lead inventory increased by 1.87%, and tin inventory increased by 2.65% [1]. 3.3 Ascending and Descending Premium Indicators - **LME (USD/ton)**: The copper premium decreased by 4.75, zinc premium increased by 8.07, aluminum premium decreased by 2.52, and nickel premium decreased by 2.17 [1]. - **SHFE (CNY/ton)**: The copper premium increased by 25, zinc premium decreased by 30, and lead premium decreased by 10 [1]. 3.4 Price Ratio and Spread Indicators - **Price Ratio**: The copper, aluminum, and tin price ratios decreased, while the zinc and nickel price ratios increased. For example, the copper price ratio decreased by 0.32%, and the zinc price ratio increased by 1.46% [1]. - **Spread**: The copper spread decreased by 20, zinc spread decreased by 10, aluminum spread increased by 20, and tin spread increased by 90 [1]. 3.5 Operation Strategies - **Copper**: Although the market risk appetite has recovered, the copper price is under downward pressure due to factors such as the digestion of positive sentiment and the rise of the US dollar index, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial - side driving force is limited, but the macro - environment still provides support, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Zinc**: The external market still has the risk of a short squeeze. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the internal - external price ratio is expected to remain low in the short term [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term nickel price may fluctuate at the bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short term, and pay attention to the macro - environment and the situation of Indonesian ore in the fourth quarter [1].

Labor Market Assessment - The labor market is experiencing reduced supply, which may make weaker job growth more acceptable to the Federal Reserve and others [1] - There is a potential shedding of jobs due to overhiring during the pandemic [1][3] Productivity and AI Impact - Current productivity levels are uncertain, and many companies have not seen cash flow or profit boosts from AI investments, with 80% reporting no benefits [3] - The anticipated increase in productivity from AI has not yet materialized, leading to a realization among companies that they may be overstaffed [3][4] Cost Pressures and Margins - Companies are facing margin pressures from tariffs and other costs, which may lead them to either pass on costs to customers or cut costs elsewhere [2] - The balance of risks for the Federal Reserve is challenging, with no clear advantages from AI investments yet [5][6] Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve committee is currently balanced, with more hawks than doves, indicating a cautious approach to policy decisions [7][8] - The absence of timely official data on employment and consumption may not lead to a dovish bias, as the Fed seems confident in overall growth despite some negative indicators [11][12]

Group 1: Core Views - The overall performance of the US economy is stable, but both of the central bank's targets face risks of deterioration [1][20] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is seen as a move to support employment demand while easing inflationary pressures [20] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy directions, with some members advocating for a pause in rate cuts [5][7] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Direction - The Federal Reserve has observed rising repo rates and federal funds rates, leading to a decision to halt the balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [4] - The current policy rate is set between 3.75% and 4.0%, with a recent cut of 25 basis points [1][7] - The committee's decision reflects a mix of opinions on the economic outlook, with some members calling for a more cautious approach [5][9] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Situation - The September CPI data indicates inflation is close to the 2% target, but the absence of PPI data complicates the assessment of overall inflation trends [11][12] - Employment market dynamics are influenced by a significant reduction in new worker supply and a decrease in labor demand, leading to a unique equilibrium in the job market [12][14] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about the potential long-term impacts of tariffs on inflation, viewing them as a one-time effect rather than a persistent issue [11][15] Group 4: Asset Bubble and Macro Stability - Investment in data centers and AI is robust, with companies believing these investments will enhance productivity, indicating a disconnect from interest rate sensitivity [15][17] - The Federal Reserve does not assess the appropriateness of asset market valuations but focuses on the overall stability of the financial system [16][18] - Concerns about potential asset bubbles are rising, with the market's current enthusiasm reflecting a complex interplay of economic factors [20][19] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Independence - The reappointment process for regional Federal Reserve presidents is ongoing, with no immediate concerns raised by the current leadership [19] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is perceived as fragile, especially in light of political pressures and the potential influence of future leadership changes [19][20]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing internal dissent regarding its decision to cut interest rates, with some officials arguing that it is too early to ease measures against inflation [2][5][6] - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining low inflation and high employment is creating conflicting pressures, complicating its decision-making process [3][5][6] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - Three Federal Reserve officials expressed disagreement with the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) recent decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point [2][6] - Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates steady but was outvoted [2][3] Inflation and Employment Dynamics - Inflation has been above the Fed's target of 2% for over four years, with tariffs exacerbating the situation, which would typically prompt rate hikes [4][6] - Conversely, trade wars initiated by President Trump have created uncertainty, hindering job growth and prompting the Fed to lower rates to support employment [4][6] Implications for Economic Policy - The divisions within the FOMC are making interest rate movements less predictable, as members disagree on which issue—inflation or employment—should take precedence [5][6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the "strongly differing views" among FOMC participants during the recent policy meeting [5]