据《南瑞典日报》报道，尽管通胀有所下降，但分析师预计瑞典央行今年 不会再次下调政策利率。北欧联合银行首席分析师预计，降息行动目前可能已 "告一段落"；瑞典北欧斯安银行银行分析师预计，明年夏季之前降息的可能性 仅为30%至40%。 （原标题：瑞典9月通胀降至0.9%） 瑞典统计局10月8日发布新闻稿称，瑞典9月通胀率为0.9%，低于8月的 1.1%；核心通胀率为3.1%，低于8月的3.2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [2] Group 1: Current LPR Situation - The stability of LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy rates and the lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR spreads due to historical low net interest margins [2][4] - Recent increases in medium to long-term market interest rates, such as the AAA-rated interbank certificates of deposit and 10-year government bond yields, have influenced market expectations [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Experts predict potential downward adjustments in policy rates and LPR by the end of the year to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [3] - The easing of external constraints due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may provide a more favorable environment for China's monetary policy adjustments [2][5] Group 3: Constraints on LPR Changes - The decline of LPR is constrained by factors such as bank interest margins, which could be negatively impacted by rapid LPR decreases, and the already low levels of deposit rates [4] - The current low levels of newly issued loan rates further limit the space for reducing deposit rates [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Strategy - The central bank is expected to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on internal and external factors while implementing moderately loose monetary policies, with a preference for reserve requirement ratio cuts over interest rate reductions [5] - Future LPR changes will need to balance multiple objectives, including growth stabilization, interest margin maintenance, and foreign trade stability [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in China has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] Group 1 - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates, specifically the central bank's seven-day reverse repurchase rate, which has not changed in September [1] - Recent increases in medium to long-term market interest rates, such as the AAA-rated one-year interbank certificates of deposit and the ten-year government bond yields, have reduced the motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [1] - The current net interest margin for commercial banks is at a historical low, further contributing to the lack of incentive to adjust LPR downwards [1] Group 2 - There is potential for a reduction in policy interest rates and LPR quotes before the end of the year, particularly as measures to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market are implemented [2] - The expectation of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in the fourth quarter could lead to a significant decrease in loan rates for businesses and residents [2] - This monetary easing is seen as a crucial strategy to stimulate consumption and investment, effectively countering the slowdown in external demand [2]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR rates for September remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to unchanged policy rates and a lack of incentive for banks to lower LPR amid historically low net interest margins[2] - Recent macroeconomic data has shown a decline in consumption, investment, and industrial production due to multiple factors, including extreme weather and real estate market adjustments[2] Group 2: Future Policy Outlook - There is potential for a reduction in policy rates and LPR in the fourth quarter to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market[3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts may reduce external constraints on China's monetary policy, allowing for more flexibility in rate adjustments[3] - The current low inflation levels provide ample room for monetary policy easing, including potential interest rate cuts[3] Group 3: Real Estate Market Support - Additional measures are expected to support the real estate market, including potential targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR to lower mortgage rates[4] - Lowering mortgage rates is seen as crucial for stimulating housing demand and reversing negative market expectations[4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adjusted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to a multi-price bidding system, indicating a shift in its liquidity management strategy and reinforcing the policy rate attribute of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Rate Adjustment - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to a multi-price bidding system means there will no longer be a unified bidding rate, allowing for better reflection of institutions' differentiated funding needs [3][5]. - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate has been established as the policy rate, with the 14-day rate previously considered to have a policy rate attribute due to its relation to the 7-day rate [3][5]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - The PBOC typically initiates 14-day reverse repurchase operations before major holidays to ensure liquidity, but the new announcement suggests a more flexible approach based on real-time liquidity management needs [7]. - The PBOC plans to conduct 14-day reverse repurchase operations on September 22, in addition to ongoing 7-day operations, to ensure sufficient short-term liquidity supply [7][9]. Group 3: Market Impact - The early initiation of the 14-day reverse repurchase operation this year, combined with a previous net injection of 300 billion yuan, is expected to alleviate preemptive funding demands from institutions ahead of the quarter-end and holidays [9]. - Future liquidity management will be more precise and efficient, allowing the PBOC to flexibly combine long, medium, and short-term operation types based on liquidity conditions and institutional demand [9].

Core Viewpoint - The statement from Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicates that the current policy interest rate is significantly above the neutral level, suggesting that monetary policy is highly restrictive [1] Group 1 - The high policy interest rate implies strong limitations on monetary policy, which could affect economic growth and investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and better meet the differentiated funding needs of various institutions [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The 14-day reverse repurchase operations will now be conducted through fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price-level bidding, with operation time and scale determined based on liquidity management needs [1][4]. - This adjustment is expected to occur slightly earlier than in previous years, providing institutions with preemptive funding ahead of holidays [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The PBOC has already injected 300 billion yuan through reverse repos, which will help alleviate the preventive funding needs of institutions before the quarter-end and holidays [3]. - The new bidding method allows for market-driven pricing, enhancing the ability of institutions to reflect their differentiated funding needs [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC aims to flexibly combine long, medium, and short-term operation varieties based on liquidity conditions and institutional demands, leading to more precise and efficient liquidity management [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and better meet the differentiated funding needs of various institutions [1][3]. Group 1: Operational Adjustments - The 14-day reverse repurchase operations will now adopt a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price-level bidding approach, with operation timing and scale determined by liquidity management needs [1][4]. - This adjustment is expected to occur slightly earlier than in previous years, aligning with the PBOC's historical practice of initiating such operations before major holidays to ensure sufficient cross-holiday funding [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The new bidding method allows for a more market-driven pricing mechanism, reflecting the differentiated funding demands of institutions, and clarifies the policy rate status of the 7-day reverse repurchase operations [4]. - The adjustment to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations is seen as an optimization of the PBOC's liquidity management toolkit, indicating a more flexible approach to managing liquidity beyond just pre-holiday periods [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC is expected to flexibly combine long, medium, and short-term operation varieties based on liquidity conditions and institutional needs, leading to more precise and efficient liquidity management [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adjusted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding, which is expected to enhance the policy status of the 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate [1][2]. Group 1 - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase operation is seen as a further optimization of the PBOC's liquidity management toolbox [3]. - The new operation will be more flexible, allowing for adjustments based on liquidity management needs rather than being limited to specific periods like before the Spring Festival or National Day [3]. - The early initiation of the 14-day reverse repurchase operation will result in an actual occupation day of 17 days, which is beneficial for addressing the preventive funding needs of institutions before the quarter-end and holiday periods [3]. Group 2 - The change to a multiple price bidding system for the 14-day reverse repurchase operation allows for a more market-driven pricing mechanism, reflecting the differentiated funding needs of institutions [2]. - The PBOC's recent actions indicate a clearer policy rate property for the 7-day reverse repurchase operation, reinforcing its importance in the monetary policy framework [2]. - The PBOC has already injected 300 billion yuan through a buyout reverse repurchase, which aids in maintaining liquidity stability across quarters and holidays [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.5% while initiating the sale of its holdings in Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) [2][5]. Group 1: ETF and REIT Sales - The BOJ will sell ETFs at an annual pace of approximately 3.3 trillion yen based on book value, or about 6.2 trillion yen based on market value [2][4]. - The sale of REITs will follow a similar pace, with approximately 5 billion yen based on book value and 5.5 billion yen based on market value [4]. - The total book value of ETFs held by the BOJ is 37 trillion yen, with a market value of 70 trillion yen, while the book value of REITs is 650 billion yen, with a market value of 700 billion yen [2][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Decisions - The BOJ has decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, despite proposals to raise it to 0.75% being rejected due to majority opposition [5]. - The BOJ is closely monitoring the potential impact of tariffs on the Japanese economy, as indicated by the Deputy Governor's remarks [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Political Context - Market expectations suggest a 1% probability of an interest rate hike in September, 33% in October, and 32% in December, with a 23% probability in January 2026 [5]. - The upcoming election for the president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on October 4 may influence economic and fiscal policies, thereby affecting financial markets [5].