Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively for three consecutive months, indicating a stable monetary policy environment amid economic fluctuations [1] Group 1: Loan Prime Rate (LPR) - The 1-year LPR is set at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged for three months [1] - The stability in LPR suggests a cautious approach by the central bank in response to current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - According to Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, macroeconomic data showed a downward trend in July, with potential external demand slowdown ahead [1] - There is an expectation for future policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which may create room for a reduction in policy rates and LPR quotes [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year remains at 3.0% and for 5 years and above at 3.5%, unchanged for three consecutive months since a decline in May [1] - Experts indicate that the macroeconomic environment has stabilized in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for further LPR adjustments in the short term [1] - Current loan rates for enterprises and individuals are at low levels, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, both down by about 45 basis points and 30 basis points year-on-year respectively [1] Group 2 - The net interest margin for commercial banks in the first half of the year is reported at 1.42%, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter, indicating limited motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [2] - Experts believe there is still potential for LPR to decrease further, especially in the context of boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [2] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates again in September, it could create a more favorable external environment for adjustments in China's monetary policy, with expectations of a potential 10 basis points reduction in LPR by the end of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations and reflecting stable policy rates since May [2][4]. Group 1: LPR and Market Conditions - The LPR has maintained stability for three consecutive months since its decline in May, indicating a lack of immediate necessity for further reductions [2][4]. - Current loan rates for enterprises and residents are at low levels, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, down by about 45 basis points and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [4]. Group 2: Financial Institutions and Regulatory Environment - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% in the first half of the year, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the first quarter, suggesting limited motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [4]. - Future adjustments to policy rates and LPR quotes may have room for reduction as efforts to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market continue [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both the 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, which aligns with market expectations [2] Group 1: LPR Quotation Stability - The LPR rates for August remained unchanged due to the stability of the policy interest rates, specifically the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate [2] - Market interest rates have seen an upward trend recently, but banks lack the incentive to lower the LPR due to historically low net interest margins [2] Group 2: Economic Context - The continuous stability of the LPR for three months is attributed to a relatively strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [2] - Experts suggest that the current period is one of policy observation, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which could lead to a subsequent decrease in the LPR [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that since July, market interest rates have risen significantly, policy rates have shown an anchoring effect, and policy rates have fallen from high levels, causing treasury bond futures to bottom out and rebound. However, the high trading volume in the stock market indicates strong risk appetite, which restricts the upward space of treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation on the strong side; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation on the strong side; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated and sorted out yesterday. Due to the significant rise in market interest rates since July, the anchoring effect of policy rates appeared, and policy rates fell from high levels, leading to a bottom - out rebound of treasury bond futures. However, the high trading volume in the stock market restricts the upward space of treasury bond futures, and treasury bond futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller believes there is no reason to maintain the current policy interest rate and risk a sudden downturn in the labor market [1] Group 1 - Waller's statement indicates a potential shift in monetary policy direction, suggesting that the current interest rate may not be justified [1] - The emphasis on the labor market highlights the importance of employment stability in monetary policy considerations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller believes there is no justification for maintaining the current policy interest rate, as it poses a risk of a sudden downturn in the labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - Waller suggests that the current interest rate policy may not be necessary and could lead to adverse effects on employment [1] - **Labor Market** - There is a concern regarding the potential for a sudden decline in the labor market if the interest rates are kept at their current levels [1]

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Baocheng Futures Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report (July 29, 2025) - **Report Type**: Futures Research Report - **Report Author**: Long Aoming - **Author Department**: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Author Qualification**: F3035632 (从业资格证号), Z0014648 (投资咨询证号) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2509**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Overall view: oscillation. Core logic: The monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. - **Intraday view**: Oscillation with a weak bias; **Medium - term view**: Oscillation; **Reference view**: Oscillation. - **Core logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net injection through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, injecting 801.8 billion yuan of net liquidity. However, due to the overall mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in the stock market's risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yields remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further upward movement of Treasury bond yields is small. In the medium to long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The medium - to long - term upward foundation for Treasury bond futures remains solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On July 24, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 25, 2025 (Friday), it would conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On July 25, the central bank announced that it carried out 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 789.3 billion yuan and the operating interest rate at 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC economists predict that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the policy interest rate unchanged in the upcoming meeting, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes [1] Group 1 - HSBC's Ryan Wang notes that there are differing views among policymakers regarding the recent policy path ahead of the meeting [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has expressed support for a rate cut in July, indicating potential dissent among officials in the upcoming decision [1] - Chairman Powell may face questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve during the meeting [1]