中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海、北京报道 近日，在博时基金2026年投资策略会上，博时基金董事长张东表示，资本市场在政策护航与产业升级的 双轮驱动下，呈现出"总量平稳、结构活跃"的鲜明特征，成为服务实体经济与居民财富管理的重要平 台。股市方面，结构性行情贯穿全年，科技成长板块成为绝对主线，人工智能、半导体、生物医药、新 能源等战略性新兴产业相关标的表现突出，科创板、创业板指数涨幅显著跑赢大盘，反映出市场对中国 产业升级方向的坚定信心。 展望2026年，张东对资本市场抱有审慎乐观的态度。 一是股市结构性机会依然丰富。在科技自立、能源转型、消费复苏等主线中，具备真实竞争力和成长性 的企业将继续获得价值重估。科创、高端制造、数字经济等板块有望延续活跃，港股与A股的联动也将 带来跨境配置机遇。2026年的权益市场，将深耕基本面，拥抱"新需求"与"新供给"。首先，"新需求"牵 引，即围绕国家战略与产业升级，科技创新（如人工智能、高端芯片、生物制造）、绿色转型（新能 源、新型电力系统）、国家安全（国防军工、信息安全）等领域的真实需求将持续释放，孕育一批具备 核心竞争力的成长型企业。其次，"新供给"创造，即传统产业的转型升级 ...

刚刚过去的元旦假期，全国商圈热力爆棚。商务部商务大数据显示，全国78个重点步行街、商圈日均客流量较2025年元旦增长5.9%，营业额同步上涨 4.9%，消费市场迎来新年"开门红"。 商圈"花式上新" 热度持续攀升 限定快闪扎堆亮相、首店尝鲜排起长队、互动打卡刷屏社交圈，仪式感和体验感直接拉满，新场景正不断解锁消费新乐趣。 湖北武汉的首个公园式超级综合体客流如织，仅元旦当天，这里的客流量就突破了12万人次。这个新商圈不仅有流行乐队秀、小动物互动等多元场景，还主 打各类"友好服务"。母婴友好、宠物友好，商铺里还开设了骑行友好专区，骑友们可以为车打气、上油。 北京五棵松商圈则以潮流跨界与科技赋能双向发力，商场里的跨年音乐会、机器人表演为消费者带来全新体验。而在成都春熙路商圈，以熊猫为主题的活动 吸引了大量消费者，实现了"艺术打卡"与"美食消费"融合，成为市民游客拍照打卡和购买川蜀特色伴手礼的新选择。 深圳的粉红大街也在假期里正式开业。街区聚焦"赏味艺术"与"生活艺术"两大业态，集结近40家首店与旗舰店，汇聚了非遗文化体验、环球创意餐饮与先锋 生活方式品牌。 电影市场火热开年 助力服务消费提质升级 中国电影市场在元旦 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 China Private Economy and Listed Companies Development Conference focused on "New Demand, New Supply, New Momentum: Technological Innovation and Industrial Innovation Driving High-Quality Development of the Private Economy" [1] Group 1: New Demand and Development Momentum - Identifying and seizing new consumer demands is a key factor for development opportunities, with experts noting four significant changes in the current consumption market: a shift from cost-performance ratio to quality-price ratio, the rise of value-based consumption, the emergence of digital-integrated consumption, and changes in consumption structure with more segmented demographics [4] - Huiyuan Group's executive highlighted the increasing consumer demand for health, leading the company to develop a full industry chain from fruit cultivation to juice production to meet these needs [4] - Kingsoft Office emphasized the importance of addressing new user needs and pain points to empower enterprises for sustainable development [5] Group 2: Technological Innovation as Core Competitiveness - The current period presents a critical opportunity for the private economy to transform and enhance efficiency, with technological innovation being the core competitive advantage [6] - Acknowledgment of the resilience of private enterprises in China, as many continue to invest in R&D and technology transfer despite challenges [6] - Anta's vice president noted that the company has invested over 20 billion yuan in technological innovation over the past decade, achieving self-innovation and production capabilities [6] - The importance of creating a virtuous cycle of "technological innovation - industrial transformation - capital empowerment - re-innovation" to enhance the effectiveness of technological innovation and support industrial development was emphasized by industry leaders [6]

Group 1 - The core theme of the event is "new demand, new supply," focusing on new consumer trends and brand dynamics [3] - The voting for the 2025 Beijing Top Ten Commercial Brands has officially started and will continue until January 10, 2026 [1] - The event is guided by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce and co-hosted by Beijing Daily Media Group and Beijing Commercial Association, making it a significant annual event in the capital's commercial sector [1] Group 2 - The event has evolved over twenty years into a highly authoritative and influential annual event in the capital's commercial field, serving as a benchmark for industry development [1] - A wide range of brands from various sectors, including retail, dining, e-commerce, home furnishings, and liquor, have actively participated in the event [3] - The recognition of outstanding brands relies not only on expert evaluations but also on consumer acknowledgment, emphasizing the importance of public participation [4]

Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds and increasing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[2] - In October, multiple financial and economic indicators in China showed a decline, but the long-term positive trend of the economy remains intact, supporting the achievement of annual targets[6] PPI Trends - Since June 2025, the PPI year-on-year growth rate has shown a bottoming recovery trend, indicating a potential economic recovery phase[10] - The report identifies two phases of PPI growth: the recovery from the bottom to the pre-positive peak and the return to overall peak levels, with various industries showing different performance in these phases[14] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on industries that are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, including small household appliances, paper, chemical products, and cosmetics, which have shown significant improvement since the policy's implementation[18] - The analysis indicates that cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and machinery have outperformed during the recovery phase of PPI[19] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment has improved, with an increase in average daily trading volume to 20,438.27 billion yuan, up by 314.77 billion yuan from the previous week[5] - The A-share market's overall price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.22, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.16% from the previous week, indicating a stable valuation environment[5] Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio and focus on sectors aligned with the "anti-involution" and new demand trends, while monitoring key policy meetings and changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook[3] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking the performance of industries with low capacity utilization and profitability that are expanding capacity, as these are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support[18]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high not seen in over a decade, indicating positive investor sentiment and potential shifts in investment strategies as the year-end approaches [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.73% to 4029.50 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.78% to 13476.52 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.55% to 3201.75 points [1] - The Northbound 50 Index saw a rise of 2.62%, with total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges amounting to 20,659 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, coal, and steel collectively surged, while real estate, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors also saw gains [1] - Emerging concepts like lithium batteries, organic silicon, and energy storage experienced significant upward movement [1] Investment Strategy Insights - Zhonghang Securities highlighted the market's focus on whether there will be a shift in investment themes as the year ends, with an emphasis on reallocating funds towards the next year [1] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to set the tone for macroeconomic policies and key tasks for the following year, influencing annual investment themes and stock valuations [1] - Institutions, driven by year-end assessments, may further encourage market trend shifts, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended, focusing on intelligent technology, aerospace, new demands, and "anti-involution" themes as per the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively monitoring new trends, new tracks, and new demands in the industry to expand product application scenarios and seek new growth points [2] Group 1 - The company is focusing on industry development trends [2] - The company aims to explore new application fields for its products [2] - The company is seeking new growth opportunities [2]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first nine months of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.2% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in profitability [2][3] - The profit growth rate improved by 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous period, with September showing a significant 21.6% increase [3] - The industrial added value maintained a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, supported by export and seasonal effects, while the PPI decline narrowed due to capacity management and market competition optimization [3][4] - Among 41 industrial categories, 21 showed positive profit growth, with high growth in sectors like mining and high-tech manufacturing [4] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 8.076 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.88%, and a net profit of 1.788 billion yuan, up 26.21% [6][7] - The company improved its expense control, with a decrease in the expense ratio to 8.18%, down 1.44 percentage points from the previous year [7][8] - An employee stock ownership plan was announced to enhance governance and motivate employees, allowing up to 2,100 employees to participate [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 11.054 billion, 13.429 billion, and 15.808 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 3.08, 3.75, and 4.40 yuan [8] Industry Research - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 0.63 percentage point lag [10] - A new initiative to strengthen self-discipline in the metal packaging industry aims to shift focus from price competition to value competition, indicating a trend towards high-quality development [10][14] - Recent price increases in packaging paper and cardboard are expected to support downstream demand, particularly with the upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival [14] - The report maintains a neutral rating for the light industry and textile sectors, with specific companies recommended for an "overweight" rating [14] Metal Industry Research - The steel market is expected to face pressure as the off-season approaches, but positive sentiment from the "14th Five-Year Plan" may provide short-term support [15][16] - Copper supply is tightening due to accidents at major mines, which is expected to support copper prices [15][17] - The aluminum sector is seeing improved profits due to new project capacity releases, while the "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to enhance the supply structure [16][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a phase of tight supply driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector, which is expected to support prices [15][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted focus towards enhancing domestic demand and domestic circulation, emphasizing the need for a balance between supply and demand [3]. - New consumption trends are expected to continue driving excess returns, particularly in new channels and product categories [3]. - The report highlights the potential benefits for dairy products and the restaurant supply chain due to policy stimuli aimed at boosting consumption [3]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the dairy market, with milk prices expected to rise moderately due to improved supply-demand dynamics [3]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with strong performance in new consumption directions, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Angel Yeast, as well as cyclical stocks with low valuations [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the upgraded focus on domestic demand and the relationship between supply and demand in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - It emphasizes the importance of new consumption trends and channels, such as instant retail and health-oriented products [3]. Key Areas of Focus - The dairy sector is highlighted as a key area benefiting from potential birth rate policies and consumer demand for dairy products [3]. - The restaurant supply chain is expected to see a boost from government consumption vouchers and ongoing support measures [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring quarterly performance reports, particularly for companies aligned with new consumption trends [3]. - It identifies specific stocks to watch, including those with solid fundamentals and those in cyclical sectors that may benefit from improving market conditions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is committed to developing new products while maintaining its existing offerings, focusing on industry trends and new demands [2] Group 1 - The company will closely monitor new trends, new tracks, and new demands in the industry [2] - The company aims to actively develop new products [2] - The company plans to expand product application scenarios and fields [2]