行 业 研 究 / 有 色 金 属 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报 铜铝需求好转，关注锑市改善 2025 年 11 月 20 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） -10% 6% 22% 38% 54% 70% 2024/11 2025/5 2025/11 有色金属 沪深300 相关研究 《铜铝趋势不改，供需结构或持续改善》 2025.11.10 《金铜趋势不改，铝供需有望持续改善》 2025.11.04 《美联储降息或持续，关注有色金属金融 属性催化》 2025.10.27 《美联储或停止缩表在即，关注行业金融 属性催化》 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 证券分析师：孟宪博 证书编号：S1160525030003 证券分析师：张恒浩 证书编号：S1160525090001 相对指数表现 钢铁：西芒杜正式投产，钢厂盈利有望逐渐改善。当周 SHFE 螺纹钢/SHFE 热 卷收于 3053、3256 元/吨，周环比+0.6%/ +0.3%。当周五大钢材品种供应 834.38 万吨，周环比-22.36 万吨，总库存录得 1477.34 万 ...

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 16 日 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 铜 ： 宏 观 交 织 催 化 ， 铜 价 维 持 震 荡 。 本 周 伦 铜 / 沪 铜 / 美 铜 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 +0.99%/+1.12%/+1.86%。宏观方面，本周美国政府结束历史最长停摆，驱动铜价上扬， 美联储 12 月降息预期回落，驱动铜价回落，预计短期铜价维持震荡。库存方面，国内库 存去化，伦铜/纽铜/沪铜库存分别为 13.6 万吨/38.1 万短吨/10.9 万吨，环比变化 -0.13%/+3.23%/-4.89%； ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) is experiencing significant inflows and reaching new highs in share volume, indicating strong investor interest in nonferrous metals [1][2] - The IMCI index, which the Dachen Nonferrous ETF tracks, shows strong medium to long-term allocation value, driven by the supply-demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum [2][5] Group 2 - Copper is facing a structural supply shortage due to declining ore grades, insufficient capital expenditure, and production disruptions, while demand is bolstered by new technologies and AI, leading to an annual demand increase of nearly 1 million tons [3] - Aluminum demand is surging due to the global data center construction boom, with projected capacity needs tripling by 2030, significantly increasing aluminum requirements for cooling systems and power facilities [4] - The IMCI index focuses on copper and aluminum, which together account for approximately 65% of its weight, benefiting from rigid supply and new demand dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly focusing on the significant gains in the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index and the related ETF, driven by supply constraints and stable demand in the copper and aluminum markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 6, 2025, the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) rose by 2.30%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Nanshan Aluminum (600219) up 9.96% and China Aluminum (601600) up 5.47% [1]. - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) increased by 2.40%, with a latest price of 1.49 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 1.32% over the past two weeks [1]. - The trading volume for the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF reached 67.52 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.41% [1]. Group 2: Fund Growth and Inflows - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF experienced a significant growth of 2.264 billion yuan in size over the past three months, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's share count increased by 1.431 billion shares in the same period, also placing it in the top half of comparable funds [3]. - Recent net inflows into the ETF totaled 2.88 million yuan, with a total of 546 million yuan attracted over the last 20 trading days [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper production from major mining companies fell by nearly 5% year-on-year in Q3, with expectations of continued contraction in Q4 due to raw material shortages and potential "anti-involution" effects [3]. - The domestic refined copper supply is expected to contract, with stable demand leading to a gradual reduction in domestic inventory [3]. - A projected 50% increase in the global refined copper supply gap is anticipated next year, with LME copper prices expected to exceed 10,000 USD/ton [3]. Group 4: Aluminum Market Insights - The market anticipates a 2.5% growth in domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption in 2025, driven by strong performance in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors [4]. - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to continue expanding, enhancing the dividend capacity of aluminum companies [4]. Group 5: ETF Advantages - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has a leading "gold-copper content" among peers, with copper accounting for 33% and gold for 14% of its index [4]. - The ETF focuses on core strategic commodities such as copper, gold, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, with a high concentration of leading companies, achieving a top five concentration of 35% [6]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance since 2022, with a cumulative return of 31% and a lower maximum drawdown compared to peers [8][9]. Group 6: Growth Potential - The projected compound annual growth rate for the net profit attributable to the parent company of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF index is 16.28% over the next two years, outperforming comparable indices [13].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rebound on November 3, with the three major indices rising despite a quick rotation of hot sectors, while the non-ferrous metals sector led the market decline [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector ETF (159876) saw its price drop nearly 4% intraday but ultimately closed down 1.43%, with a total trading volume of 46.18 million CNY, an increase of 24% compared to the previous day [1] - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) recorded a net subscription of 10.2 million shares throughout the day, indicating that funds are actively positioning themselves during the pullback [1] Group 2: ETF Composition and Performance - As of October 31, the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) had a total size of 513 million CNY, making it the largest among three products tracking the same index [1] - In the top 10 constituent stocks of the ETF, aluminum companies dominated, with eight out of ten stocks showing gains, including Zhongfu Industrial, which rose over 6% [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that investing in the entire non-ferrous metals sector may be more beneficial than focusing solely on gold, as the sector is essential for both traditional and emerging industries [3] - The fourth quarter is expected to see tight supply conditions driving prices of copper and cobalt higher, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [3][4] - The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to enter a new era, driven by the transition from traditional industries to strategic emerging industries [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which has a diversified weight distribution across copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a risk diversification strategy [6]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, creating a favorable financial environment for the non-ferrous metals sector [2][4] - Historical data shows that previous Fed rate-cutting cycles led to significant increases in non-ferrous metal prices, with copper prices rising from $1,400/ton to $8,700/ton after the 2001 crisis and from $3,000/ton to $10,000/ton post-2008 [3][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a notable supply-demand imbalance in the non-ferrous metals market, particularly for copper, which has led to rising prices [5][6] - Major copper mines, including Kamoa-Kakula, El Teniente, and Grasberg, have faced production halts, exacerbating supply tightness [5][6] - Global refined copper consumption from January to August 2025 reached 18.83 million tons, a 5.90% increase year-on-year, with China's consumption growing by 11.05% [6][7] Group 3: Policy Developments - The Chinese government's "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price competition and may lead to a new round of supply-side reforms in the non-ferrous metals industry [8][9] - The policy is expected to constrain supply, potentially raising the price floor for metals, particularly in the copper smelting sector [9] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Non-ferrous metal ETFs, such as 512400, provide efficient investment tools for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's growth [10][12] - The index tracked by the ETF includes leading companies across various segments, offering a balanced exposure to industrial metals, precious metals, and strategic metals [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase in fund holdings, with a notable rise in copper and tin stocks. The total market value of non-ferrous metal heavy stocks held by active equity funds reached approximately 117.8 billion yuan, representing a 1.43 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [1][2]. - Key companies in the sector include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao, all of which are recommended for investment due to their strong performance and market positioning [3][4]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - In Q3 2025, the non-ferrous metals heavy stock holdings accounted for 5.72% of total fund heavy stock holdings, up from 4.29% in Q2 2025, indicating a growing interest in this sector [1]. - The top ten heavy stocks by market value are dominated by copper and gold, with Zijin Mining leading at 32.9 billion yuan [1]. Stock Increases and Decreases - Significant increases in holdings were observed in copper and tin sectors, with Jiangnan New Materials showing the largest increase in shareholding [2]. - Conversely, reductions were primarily in aluminum and lithium stocks, with Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals experiencing the largest decrease [2]. Investment Recommendations - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and improving demand in Q4 2025. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [3]. - The aluminum sector is nearing a production capacity ceiling, with China Hongqiao recommended for investment [3]. - Gold is expected to benefit from a weakening dollar and a potential interest rate cut, with a positive outlook for stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [3]. - The rare earth sector is supported by supply-demand imbalances, with Northern Rare Earth recommended [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent pullback in the non-ferrous metals sector after three days of strong gains may present a mid-to-long-term investment opportunity, driven by three main investment logic points [1][2][3]. Group 2 - Strategic positioning is being elevated from "cyclical commodities" to "strategic assets," with China holding a leading position in the rare earth sector, accounting for 61% of global mining share in 2024 and over 90% of the refining process concentrated in China [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics are tightening, with limited supply and rigid demand supporting prices, particularly for copper, which is nearing historical highs due to factors like grid upgrades and AI, alongside a significant reduction in supply from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [2]. - The monetary attributes of industrial metals are becoming more pronounced, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could enhance liquidity and support industrial metal prices [3]. Group 3 - On the market front, the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) experienced a decline of 2.89% after three consecutive days of gains, indicating a potential buying opportunity for investors [4]. - Among the constituent stocks, Chujiang New Material saw a limit-up increase, while companies like Western Superconducting and Innovation New Materials also performed well, contrasting with declines in stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Huayou Cobalt [4]. Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals sector is characterized by varying degrees of prosperity and driving factors, suggesting that a diversified investment approach through ETFs tracking the non-ferrous metals index could mitigate risks and enhance returns [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting long-term investment value [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from new consumption patterns and structural changes, driven by the emphasis on technological self-reliance and new productive forces [1]. - A significant adjustment in gold prices is viewed as a technical correction, with the long-term upward trend remaining intact [1]. - The report emphasizes that the narrative surrounding non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, remains strong, with resource stocks trading at historically low price-to-earnings ratios, presenting attractive valuation opportunities [1]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 236 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 5,951.5 billion [2]. - The sector's performance over different time frames shows an absolute return of 7.3% over one month, 47.1% over six months, and 55.0% over twelve months [3]. - The report identifies key metals to focus on, including copper, gold, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, tungsten, uranium, and antimony [1]. Market Dynamics - Copper inventories in major regions increased by 0.41 thousand tons to 181.6 thousand tons, while total inventories decreased by 3.8 thousand tons compared to the previous year [3]. - The report notes a significant supply disruption in cobalt due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a tightening of global supply and increased prices [3]. - The aluminum market is experiencing a decline in inventories, with a notable reduction in production capacity due to unexpected cutbacks in major aluminum plants [4]. Price Trends - Cobalt prices increased by 3.7% this week, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors [3]. - Silver prices fell by 6.65% due to a stronger dollar and rising real interest rates, which diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices showed a slight increase, reflecting robust demand in the battery and energy storage markets [4]. Strategic Focus - The report suggests a focus on companies involved in new materials related to technological advancements, particularly in nuclear fusion and lithium battery production [5]. - It highlights the strategic importance of rare earth elements and their potential for price appreciation in the medium to long term [5].

Core Insights - The recent volatility in precious metals, including a 6% drop in gold prices, indicates a potential shift in investment logic for non-ferrous metals, prompting investors to reassess opportunities amidst market fluctuations [1][2][6]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold experienced a dramatic decline after reaching a historical high of $4380 per ounce, with a notable single-day drop of 6% on October 21, 2025, highlighting the risks in the current market [1][6]. - The price of silver is supported by its dual role as both an industrial and financial asset, with a projected global supply-demand gap of 4633 tons in 2024, primarily driven by solar energy demand [8][10]. - The investment logic for gold is influenced by three main factors: expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases, which provide structural support [5][6]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper is viewed as a critical component in the global green energy transition and AI technology revolution, with expectations that its price could exceed $10,000 per ton by 2026 [11]. - The recent fluctuations in rare earth prices, which rose by 12.72% and then fell by 11.69% in October, underscore their strategic importance in modern technology and industrial applications [12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to utilize professional tools and resources to navigate the complexities of the non-ferrous metals market, with options like actively managed funds and ETFs providing different exposure strategies [13][16]. - The combination of active and passive investment strategies is recommended for investors to capture overall industry opportunities while focusing on high-potential segments [17].