专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报 随着新一轮财报季拉开帷幕，投资者近期对经济加速增长受益股的青睐将迎来严峻考验。 资金正从过去三年引领美股上涨的科技巨头中流出，转而涌入银行、消费品制造商和材料生产商的股 票。投资者押注，随着 2026 年美国经济增速加快，这些板块将跑赢大盘。 过去几年，少数几只人工智能巨头股一直是美股上涨的核心动力。如今，要为 "弃科技、投周期" 的板 块轮动正名，就需要企业给出强劲的业绩预期。当前交易员正对人工智能概念股的上涨持续性提出质 疑，美联储的货币宽松政策则重新点燃了市场对经济敏感型板块的投资热情，促使基金经理们减持这轮 牛市的长期赢家股，实现投资组合多元化。 但令敏感投资者担忧的是，在标普 500 指数成分股公司中，大型科技股仍将是推动四季度利润增长的主 力军。美国银行的数据显示，该指数成分股中的科技企业盈利同比增幅预计将达 20%，而非科技企业 的盈利增速则将从 9% 大幅放缓至仅 1%。 这就使得卡特彼勒、宝洁和摩根大通等企业的业绩指引变得至关重要。投资者需要美国企业界印证华尔 街的普遍预测：即便美国经济无法实现全年扩张，上半年也将迎来一波增长热潮。 派珀・桑德勒公司首席 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high of nearly $4600 per ounce, with a significant annual increase of approximately 70% in 2025, marking the largest annual rise since the 1979 oil crisis [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current surge in international gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year. From 2020 to 2023, gold prices frequently surpassed $2000 per ounce, and in 2024, they exceeded $2800 per ounce with a 27% annual increase. By March 2025, prices crossed $3000 per ounce, and by October, they surpassed $4000 per ounce, culminating in a record high near $4600 per ounce by year-end [1] - Domestic gold prices in China have also risen significantly, with gold jewelry prices increasing from around 800 yuan per gram to approximately 1360 yuan per gram within the year [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle and the weakening dollar have reduced the holding costs of gold [1] - Geopolitical risks and rising global economic uncertainties have intensified market demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, leading to a surge in prices [2] - Central banks worldwide are diversifying their reserves and significantly increasing gold holdings, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3: Related Precious Metals - The increase in international gold prices has also led to substantial rises in other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% and palladium over 100% last year. The strong performance of gold has activated sector rotation, boosting the overall valuation of precious metals [2] - Industrial demand for certain precious metals, such as silver, has also supported price increases, driven by rapid developments in industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to enter a new phase of dynamic balance and multiple forces at play by 2026, according to industry experts [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach, recognize market risks, and follow diversification principles in their gold investments, employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging to smooth returns [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in international gold prices, which reached a historical high of nearly $4600 per ounce in January 2025, marking a 70% increase for the year, the largest annual gain since the 1979 oil crisis [1] - The upward trend in international gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year, and continued with multiple breaches of the $2000 per ounce mark from 2020 to 2023, culminating in a 27% increase in 2024 [1] - Factors driving the strong performance of gold include rising global risk aversion and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and the US government debt surpasses $38 trillion, leading investors to seek gold as a safe haven [1][2] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties are significant contributors to the rising gold prices, with increased demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] - Central banks worldwide are diversifying their reserves and significantly increasing gold holdings, which has become a crucial factor in driving up gold prices [2] - Domestic gold prices are closely correlated with international prices over the long term, but short-term fluctuations are influenced by exchange rates and unique supply-demand dynamics in the domestic market [2] Group 3 - The rise in international gold prices has also led to substantial increases in the prices of other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% and palladium over 100% last year [2] - The strong performance of gold has activated a rotation in the precious metals sector, leading to increased valuations and capital inflows into related metals like silver and platinum group metals [2] - Industrial demand for certain precious metals, such as silver, is supported by the rapid growth of industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and the expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence [2]

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 欧洲股市小幅收高，创下收盘纪录新高，投资者权衡特朗普政府对美联储法律行动对于央行独立性的影 响。 欧洲股市小幅收高，创下收盘纪录新高，投资者权衡特朗普政府对美联储法律行动对于央行独立性的影 响。 斯托克欧洲600指数收盘上涨0.2%。矿业股涨幅最大，因美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔称美国司法部已向美 联储发出大陪审团传票，金银价格创下纪录高位。旅游休闲和汽车股跌幅最大。 受科技股和矿业股上涨推动，欧洲股市今年开局强劲。随着本周美国通胀数据公布及财报季拉开帷幕， 板块轮动效应显现，斯托克欧洲600指数目前处于十年来最严重的超买状态。 "年初至今市场表现亮眼，这也为投资者提供了获利了结的良机，"Saxo Banque France销售交易主管 Andrea Tueni表示。 受科技股和矿业股上涨推动，欧洲股市今年开局强劲。随着本周美国通胀数据公布及财报季拉开帷幕， 板块轮动效应显现，斯托克欧洲600指数目前处于十年来最严重的超买状态。 "年初至今市场表现亮眼，这也为投资者提供了获利了结的良机，"Saxo Banque France销售交易主管 Andrea Tue ...

港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧称，若A股当日成交额刷新历史纪录，意味着市场活跃度显著提升，投资 者情绪处于高位。社保基金、保险资金、企业年金等稳健型长期资金持续进场，显示机构投资者对中国 经济基本面和资本市场前景保持信心，并为股市带来稳定增量资金。与此同时，板块表现差异扩大，尽 管主要指数走强，并非所有行业与个股同步受益，部分前期热点板块已出现明显回调，资金在不同板块 间快速轮动，热点轮动提速使得市场机会与风险并存，投资者需密切跟踪市场动态并调整组合。 板块轮动加快，热点将会扩散并且出现再平衡。 1月12日上午，上证指数延续上涨惯性高开高走，中午收盘上涨0.75%报收4151点，深成指涨1.31%，创 业板指涨1.17%，科创综指涨2.46%。AI应用题材全线爆发，电商、短剧游戏等热点领涨。 市场半日成交额超2.33万亿元，比上一个交易日增加超过2500亿元。 有业内人士认为，A股日内成交有望突破3.6亿元，超越2024年10月8日沪深京三地合共成交额3.48万亿 元，可以突破历史高点；市场整体仍在上涨趋势之中，但部分板块进入"超买"区域，结构上存在过热的 情况，随着热点轮动加快，热点会扩散并出现再平衡。 奶酪 ...

2026 年的投资市场，刚拉开序幕，不少投资者却陷入了纠结：看着 AI 、人形机器人等赛道热度飙升，怕 踏空错过一波行情；又盯着部分板块的估值泡沫预警，担心高位入场转眼被套。这种既想进场又不敢迈步 的焦虑，几乎成了当下投资圈的集体心态。 其实，市场的迷茫时刻，恰恰是参考专业投资人声音的最佳时机。 我们整理了 天天基金社区内多位资深投资大咖 的年度前瞻， 从整体市场情绪到重点关注行业，总结出他 们关于2026年 投资的核心共识 ——哪些赛道是真机会，哪些风险必须谨慎观望，又该用怎样的节奏布 局？ 对股债市场构成利好 7 长期持有优质资产 长期价值投资,注重指 数产品的配置价值 ▽ 板块轮动特征 讨论板块TOP3为科技、 商业航天、有色金属 7 关注市场震荡风险 三大市场积极观点均超 90%，但需控制仓位 十万史低位, 外贫回流 将推动修复;谨慎派则 担忧中美关系和全球经 济影响 8 海外市场分歧 看好派关注美联储加息 结束后的美股科技股机 会;谨慎派担忧美国经 济衰退风险和美股估值 过高问题 头 关键词云 > 有色金属 示营体 长期持有 科技 均衡配置 商业航天 均衡配置 港股估值低位 新政策式 k 板块轮动 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 同样值得关注的是，道氏理论的买入信号并非本周美股市场出现的唯一利好信号。数据显示，标普400 中型股指数在周二也创下了自去年12月11日以来的首个收盘历史新高。 什么是道氏理论？ 一项被投资分析师沿用逾百年的股市指标，于本周释放出强烈的看涨信号。 周二，道琼斯工业平均指数与道琼斯运输业平均指数同日创下收盘历史新高，这是道氏理论时隔一年多 以来首次发出买入信号。 在技术策略师看来，这一现象印证了始于2022年年末的牛市根基依旧稳固，即便部分此前涨幅显著的人 工智能概念股近期表现承压。 道琼斯工业平均指数的上一个收盘历史高点出现在1月5日，而道琼斯运输业平均指数距离本轮新高则间 隔了更长时间。道琼斯市场数据显示，该指数此前一次收盘创纪录还要追溯至2024年11月25日。 "这一信号印证了长期牛市仍在延续且运行稳健。"市场技术分析师协会（CMT Association）联合创始 人拉尔夫・阿坎波拉（Ralph Acampora）在接受《市场观察》采访时表示。 过去两个月，美股市场呈现出明显的板块轮动特征：英伟达（NVDA）、博通（AVGO）等此前炙手可 热的 ...

| | | | | | | | | H色金属状花干燥 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/08 | | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 8 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 24340 | 24315 | 24450 | 24115 | 135 | 0.56 | 5100 | -720 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 24300 | 24330 | 24515 | 24145 | 195 | 0.81 | 91603 | -4856 | | 沪锌 | 2603 | 2436 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: January 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Black Metal Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - **Futures Contracts on January 6**: RB2605 closed at 3111 yuan/ton with a -0.06% change, HC2605 at 3263 yuan/ton with a 0.18% change, and SS2602 at 13395 yuan/ton with a 1.82% change. Their trading volumes were 841,618, 439,684, and 137,101 hands respectively, and the capital inflows/outflows were 0.39 billion, -0.33 billion, and -0.68 billion yuan respectively [5] - **Spot Market on January 6**: Most prices in the main rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. Rebar prices in some markets were stable, while others dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in Tianjin dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and in other markets, they were stable or dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8] - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract continued to decline with a blunted J-value. The daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract showed a divergent trend. The daily MACD red bar of the rebar 2605 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive days, approaching a death cross. The daily MACD indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract had a death cross the previous day with a slightly enlarged green bar [8] Group 3: Market Outlook - **News Impact**: Geopolitical turmoil led to a significant increase in the prices of precious metals and some non-ferrous metals. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, and coking coal futures in the black metal sector became hedging chips due to their oversupply situation. However, smart money has started to lay out long-term positions at low prices [9][10] - **Fundamentals**: The production of the five major steel products stopped falling and rebounded, and demand also slightly increased. Due to the weekly supply being less than demand, social inventories continued to decline, reaching a new low since late January last year. The iron ore price reached a new high since late February last year and then declined, while the 4th round of spot coke price cuts was implemented. The steel cost remained relatively stable [10] - **Overall Outlook**: News factors may cause the steel price to be weak in the near term but still have recovery potential. From a fundamental perspective, the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market will be weak first and then strong, and a continuously bearish view is not advisable [10] Group 4: Industry News - **Power Generation**: As of December 31, 2025, Guangxi Guiguan Electric Power Co., Ltd. completed a cumulative power generation of 46.142 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.68%. In December 2025, Changyuan Electric Power completed a power generation of 2.38 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 40.54% [11] - **Mineral Resources**: On the evening of January 5, Yongtai Energy announced that the "aluminum under coal" mineral resource reserves of its subsidiary Shanxi Qinyuan Kangwei Sendaoyuan Coal Industry Co., Ltd. were officially approved by the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources [11] - **Policy**: The General Office of the Henan Provincial People's Government issued policies to promote the economic development in the first quarter of 2026, including promoting the construction of energy infrastructure and aiming to complete an investment of 24 billion yuan in full-scale energy infrastructure physical volume in Q1 2026 [11] - **Port and Shipping Data**: As of December 31, Ganqimaodu Port completed a total import and export freight volume of 43.0585 million tons. In December 2025, Russia's seaborne coal exports were 12.3557 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 17.57%. In November 2025, Indonesia's coal exports were 49.3632 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.38% [11][12] - **Antitrust Investigation**: India's antitrust investigation found that 25 companies, including Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and Steel Authority of India, colluded on steel prices [12] Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes data charts on steel production, inventory,开工 rates, iron water production, and consumption, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]