热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 周四，ICE美棉下跌0.69%，报收64.4美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降1.5%，报收14740元/吨，主力合 约持仓环比下降62575手至85.29万手，棉花3128B现货价格指数15610元/吨，较前一日下降70元/吨。国 际市场方面，宏观层面扰动较多，基本面边际变化有限，震荡为主。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉主力合约 减仓下行，市场情绪稍有降温。回顾过去，近期市场情绪偏暖、预期偏强是行情驱动的主要因素，但郑 棉期价来到相对高位后，下游的采购成本增加，后续开工或有一定影响，观望情绪较浓。展望未来，市 场在高位存有一定分歧，短期以宽幅震荡对待，中长期来看，政策端仍有值得期待的事情，中长期棉价 上方或仍有一定空间。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保 证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和 建议仅供参考，并不构成任何具体产品、业务的推介以及相关品种的 ...

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 项目承担：北京棉花展望信息咨询有限责任公司 监测对象：18个主要棉花生产、消费省的100家棉纺织厂 11月国内外棉市在供需变化、宏观政策等多重因素影响下，价格延续10月以来震荡走势，整体呈先跌后涨、内强外弱的特点。新棉集中上市供应增加、纺织 市场进入淡季后需求转弱，给棉价带来一定压力，而促消费政策出台、美联储降息预期回升等宏观因素又推动市场情绪回暖，棉价受到支撑，国内期现货价 格均以当月最高点报收，国际棉价则弱于国内，内外棉价差有所扩大。 一、宏观环境向好推动国内棉价上涨 11月上中旬国内新棉加工进入高峰期，上市资源持续增加，市场供应总体宽松，而纺织厂季节性需求下降，国内现货价格震荡走弱，中国棉花价格指数由月 初的14859元/吨下跌至最低14779元/吨。月下旬，相关部门联合印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，加上中美元首通话显示两 国关系总体稳定向好，带动市场信心回升，国内棉价持续反弹，中国棉花价格指数月底收于最高点14896元/吨，月均价14831元/吨，环比上涨67元，同比下 跌497元。 三、长绒棉需求稳定 价格保持平稳 11月下游高支纱 ...

棉花： 周三，ICE美棉上涨0.41%，报收64.12美分/磅，CF601环比上涨0.15%，报收13780元/吨，主力合约持仓 环比下降5219手至47.33万手，棉花3128B现货价格指数14590元/吨，较前一日上涨20元/吨。国内市场方 面，美联储12月议息会议如期降息25BP，但点阵图显示票委们对后续降息路径有一定分歧，美元指数 反应为震荡走弱，美棉期价重心小幅上移。国内市场方面，近期郑棉期价维持震荡走势。中央经济工作 会议将于近日召开，持续关注。基本面来看，从中国棉花信息网公布工商业库存数据反推，11月棉花月 度消费量仍保持相对高位，但是从半月度数据来看，11月下半月棉花消费量低于上半月棉花消费量，棉 花上行驱动减弱。展望未来，扰动因素较多，多空因素交织，短期以震荡格局对待。中长期来看，我们 认为棉价上方空间大于下方空间，等待时间换空间。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： 消息方面，Green Pool预计，泰国2025/26年度糖产量将同比跳增6%，至1，070万吨。2026/27年度，糖 产量可能下滑7.5%至990万吨。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价区 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in a phase of fluctuating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The short - term situation is that during the new cotton listing and harvest period, the new cotton output exceeds expectations, and although it is the demand peak season, downstream orders are less than expected, which may put pressure on cotton prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose, domestic output may reach a recent high, and demand growth is insufficient, so the cotton price is expected to run at a low level. Therefore, in the short - term, the cotton price is weakening, and the operation strategy should be to sell short on rallies [2]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, corresponding hedging operations are proposed. For example, for those worried about rising cotton prices, they can buy call options; for those worried about falling cotton prices, they can sell futures for hedging [2]. - Attention should be paid to data such as US cotton exports and USDA report data [2]. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered to some extent, and the ending inventory has increased. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production remains at a relatively high level, demand is stable, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease slightly. The USDA September report shows that in 2024/26, the global output is 2595.7 tons, consumption is 2544.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1612.6 tons; in 2025/26, the output is 2562.2 tons, consumption is 2581.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1592.5 tons [56][57]. - In Brazil, the new - season production forecast remains high. The 2024/26 season's total production is expected to be 407.7 tons, and in 2025/26, it is expected to be 402.8 tons, with a slight decrease in the planting area [63]. - In India, although the area of unginned cotton has decreased this year and there have been local rainfall disasters, the production is expected to be relatively optimistic, ranging from 300 - 570 tons [63]. - In the US, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area increased, the harvested area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvested area increased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the production is expected to decrease. The US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but the subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [63]. Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In terms of production, in 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the production reached a recent high. It is expected that the production in Xinjiang may be about 6.4 million tons, and the national production is expected to be about 6.85 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and the weather in the producing areas was generally good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5% [17][22]. - In terms of inventory, last year's cotton imports decreased significantly, and the commercial inventory decreased significantly. After entering the new season, with the listing of new cotton, the inventory quickly recovered. As of the end of October 2025, the cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, a decrease of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 0.8882 million tons, a decrease of 0.0427 million tons from the previous month [20][23]. - In terms of imports, the domestic cotton production and sales have a certain gap, and imports are needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued, but the quantity was low, and the import increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. In 2026, the 1% tariff quota is 894,000 tons. According to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China has lowered the import tariff on US cotton by 15%, but still retains a 10% additional tariff [30]. - In terms of downstream demand, overseas interest - rate cut rhythms are still variable, but the Sino - US economic and trade consultations are progressing smoothly, and trade policy disturbances have eased. Domestic policies are strengthening to boost the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Downstream orders are insufficient, textile enterprises' finished - product inventories are higher than the same period last year, the operating load is at a low level, and the industrial chain is under great pressure. Textile and clothing exports have decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while retail data has performed well [37]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as national reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the national reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. In 2025, the planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual成交 was 0.8639 million tons, the成交 rate was 71.27%, and the average成交 price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [46][47]. Price Difference and Basis - The report presents data on cotton spreads such as 1 - 5 spreads, 9 - 1 spreads, 5 - 9 spreads, and basis data for different contracts (01, 05, 09), which can help analyze the market structure and price relationships [69][74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the upside potential of cotton prices is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Domestic cotton prices continued a slight rebound supported by rising acquisition costs and positive expectations from Sino - US negotiations, but the rebound momentum slowed as positive factors were digested. ICE cotton futures prices rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects, despite the lack of significant improvement in the industrial fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **US Cotton Weekly Review**: US cotton rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions were 69,367 contracts, a decrease of 751 from the previous week; non - commercial short net positions were 114,787 contracts, an increase of 2,020; non - commercial net positions were - 45,420 contracts, a decrease of 2,771 [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,520 to 13,675 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,595 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan or 0.41%. As of October 31, the registered and forecasted cotton warrants totaled 3,858 contracts, equivalent to 162,000 tons [10]. - **Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data**: Spot prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The seed cotton acquisition price showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the price in the current week at 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg, supporting cotton prices. The overall spot basis narrowed, and many cotton merchants lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton output will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, with Xinjiang's output expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a 9.2% increase and accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - **Demand**: Demand is weaker than in previous years, with no obvious domestic demand improvement and a slight improvement in exports. Weaving mills' raw material procurement is mainly on a wait - and - see basis, with orders - based purchasing [27][33]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 396 - 445 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,022.1 to - 945.3 yuan/ton, a decline from the previous week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of October 31, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 484,500 tons and 77,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [42]. 03 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: According to the latest USDA September forecast, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - **US Cotton Export**: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have suspended disclosure [47]. - **US Cotton Growth**: No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The new - year global cotton supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there are many uncertainties and large adjustment space in the global supply - demand balance sheet, with the supply - demand report being neutral. Short - term global cotton prices are constrained by harvest pressure. [28] - In China, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, commercial inventory is rising rapidly, and industrial inventory is at a neutral level. The period of the tightest cotton supply has passed. The current cotton - yarn price spread is low, domestic and export demand is weak, and downstream textile mills purchase as needed. [28] - If there is no substantial progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations, cotton prices are expected to face upward pressure due to expected production increase, weak demand, and downstream losses. [28] 3. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is 25.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. Global consumption is expected to increase by 180,000 tons to 25.9 million tons, and the global ending inventory is 15.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The supply - demand report is neutral. [2] US Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated cotton production is 2.88 million tons, unchanged from the August estimate. The estimated ending inventory is 780,000 tons, unchanged from August and 90,000 tons more than the previous year's ending inventory. [6] Domestic Cotton Industry Chain Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production Increase**: In 2025, the national cotton planting area is 47.306 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. Total cotton output is adjusted up by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a pattern of high - opening, low - going, and then rebounding. In October, there was a rare scramble for purchases in Xinjiang. [7][11] - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: As of the end of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 670,000 tons. It is expected to reach over 2.5 million tons by October, ending the stage of supply shortage. As of the end of September, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70,000 tons, at a neutral level. [12][16] - **Textile Mill Yarn Inventory**: As of the end of October, the textile mill yarn inventory was 30.1 days, a year - on - year increase of 5 days, at a neutral - to - high level. [17] - **Textile and Apparel Export Situation**: In September 2025, China's textile and apparel export total was $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports were $221.69 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. [19][21] Domestic Cotton Valuation Situation - At the end of October, the average purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be around 6.2 yuan/kg, corresponding to a new - cotton cost of around 14,600 yuan/ton. The current domestic cotton - yarn price spread is around 5,700, at a low level. Xinjiang's textile profit is at the break - even point, while inland textile profit is in the red. Overall, downstream industry chain profits are low, which is not conducive to downstream active inventory replenishment. [22][25]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs forecasts stable domestic cotton prices due to strong expectations of abundant harvests and a significant reduction in import volumes [1] - International cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure as major producing countries anticipate high yields, while global recovery remains weak and consumer demand has not shown significant improvement [1] Domestic Market Summary - Strong expectations for cotton production in the domestic market lead to a stable price outlook - The issuance of an additional 200,000 tons of cotton sliding tax quota is limited to processing trade, indicating that imports are not expected to surge in the near future - The textile sector is entering a peak season, contributing to the stability of domestic cotton prices [1] International Market Summary - The new cotton harvest in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to be abundant, which may exert downward pressure on international prices - Weak global economic recovery and lack of significant improvement in consumer demand suggest that international cotton prices will likely trend lower in the short term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - level Sino - US trade conflict has resurfaced, which is unfavorable for cotton price increases. Fundamentally, the consumption demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season this year is weak, the operating rate of the downstream industrial chain has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new domestic cotton season, resulting in high selling hedging pressure. Overall, the fundamental situation of Zhengzhou cotton is weak, and with the impact of macro - level negative factors, it is expected that the upward space for cotton prices in the short term is relatively limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the overseas market, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 64.29 cents per pound, up 0.52 cents per pound from the previous week, a rise of 0.82%. The spread between the December and March contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reported at - 1.5 cents per pound, up 0.23 cents per pound from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,335 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous week, a rise of 0.08%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,679 yuan per ton, down 78 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 1,328 yuan per ton, down 96 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, reported at - 55 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: In the overseas market, due to the US government shutdown, USDA data continued to be suspended. In the domestic market, according to market news, on October 16, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.17 yuan per kilogram, up 0.02 yuan per kilogram from the previous week. Machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang started large - scale picking, and the purchase price of machine - picked cotton increased. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of October 17, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, up 0.2% week - on - week, down 7.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and down 10.22 percentage points from the average of the past five years (75.82%) [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: As mentioned in the core view, the upward space for short - term cotton prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, spreads between different months of Zhengzhou cotton, and spreads between different regions and different varieties in the international market, such as the US - Brazil spread, etc. These charts show the historical trends of various spreads from 2021 to 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: The report shows the processing and inspection volume of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts, reflecting the production situation of domestic cotton [38][39]. - **Import Volume**: Charts show the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton, the import volume of US cotton to China, and the import volume of cotton yarn, reflecting the import situation of the domestic cotton market [40][41][45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented through charts, showing the operating conditions of the downstream industry [48][49]. - **Sales Progress**: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown through charts, reflecting the sales situation of domestic cotton [50][51]. - **Inventory**: The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton, the combined monthly inventory of commercial and industrial cotton, as well as the raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills are presented through charts, reflecting the inventory situation of the domestic cotton market [53][54][55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Situation**: The report shows the planting area without drought, the excellent - good rate, production, output, planting area, export signing progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of US cotton through various charts, comprehensively reflecting the situation of the US cotton market [59][60][61]. - **Brazilian Situation**: Charts show the planting area, output, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton, reflecting the situation of the Brazilian cotton market [72][73][75]. - **Indian Situation**: The planting area, output, consumption, and import - export volume, as well as supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are presented through charts, showing the situation of the Indian cotton market [80][81][83].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: The global cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the OECD lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, trade frictions and inflation continue to suppress cotton consumption. The U.S. cotton harvest lags behind previous years, while Brazil's harvest is nearly complete and Pakistan's new - cotton listing has increased significantly. Given the macro - economic downturn and short - term supply increase, international cotton prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [40]. - Domestic: The domestic cotton market is approaching a seasonal supply peak, and prices face significant downward pressure around the National Day. New cotton picking has started, but farmers are waiting and watching. The futures market has led to a decline in expected purchase prices. With the expected concentrated listing and weak consumption, domestic cotton prices may face further correction pressure [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price and Spread - The weekly average price of international cotton spot increased, and the spread between domestic and international cotton prices continued to narrow. The weekly average price of China's CC Index3128B was 15,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the Cotlook A 1% tariff converted into RMB and the CC Index3128B narrowed by 132 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand (USDA) - **Global**: The expected total global cotton production in the current year is 25.622 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 tons (0.9%); consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons (0.7%); imports are 9.516 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons (0.3%); exports are 9.515 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons (0.3%); the global ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons (1.0%) [9]. - **US**: In 2025/26, the U.S. cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, an increase of 115,000 mu; the harvested area is 44.729 million mu, an increase of 79,000 mu; the abandonment rate is 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit is expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, a slight decrease; the production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, with little change. The ending inventory remains at 784,000 tons [12]. - **China**: The expected production is 7.076 million tons, an increase of 218,000 tons (3.2%); consumption is expected to be 8.382 million tons, an increase of 217,000 tons (2.7%); imports are expected to be 1.132 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons (1.9%). Considering the decrease in initial supply, the ending inventory decreases by 229,000 tons to 7.396 million tons [14]. 3.3 Growth and Harvest Progress - **US**: As of September 21, the U.S. cotton boll - opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average. In Texas, the boll - opening rate was 53%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average, and the picking progress was 23%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average [18]. - **China**: As of September 25, the national new cotton picking progress was only 1.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year - on - year, still in the initial stage [40]. 3.4 Climate Conditions - **US**: The precipitation in the U.S. was relatively low. As of September 16, the drought - affected area accounted for 40.8% of the total area, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the previous week. In Texas, the drought - affected area accounted for 20.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous week [21]. - **China**: From September 30 to October 5, Xinjiang was affected by cold air, with rain, snow, and strong winds in some areas, which may have an adverse impact on cotton harvesting [22]. 3.5 Import and Inventory - **Import**: In August 2025, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (40.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons (51.6%). From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.9% [24]. - **Inventory**: As of September 2025, China's domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 305,800 tons, at a historically low level. The industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons, at a historically high level [26][30]. 3.6 Export Sign - ups and Shipments (US) - As of September 18, 2025, the U.S. had cumulatively signed 947,000 tons of cotton for export in the 2025/26 season, accounting for 36.22% of the expected annual exports, and had shipped 220,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 23.23%. China had cumulatively signed 17,000 tons, accounting for 1.77% of the signed volume, and had shipped 2,000 tons, accounting for 11.76% of the signed volume [28]. 3.7 Downstream Market - **Yarn**: The spot price of cotton yarn decreased slightly. Downstream traders and weaving factories replenished stocks for the National Day and subsequent demand, and the sales of cotton yarn were good. Some spinning enterprises had normal holidays during the National Day, while some extended their holidays. The opening rates of yarn mills in different regions were basically stable [34]. - **Retail**: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 8.74% [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the support for cotton prices is weakening due to the small - scale listing of new cotton, significant production increase in the new season, and the lack of a peak season in the downstream market. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish stance [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,540 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,660 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 18,937 lots, up 1,458 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 168 lots, up 299 lots [2] - Cotton main contract open interest: 532,801 lots, up 10,524 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 14,281 lots, down 1,753 lots [2] - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 3,915 lots, down 181 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 0 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,133 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,615 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,267 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 14,147 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,432 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 22,618 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,482 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] - Cotton import volume: 70 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume: 130 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons [2] - Imported cotton profit: 1,072 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 14817 thousand tons, down 7081 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.58 days, down 0.65 days;坯布 inventory days: 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - Cloth production: 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; yarn production: 20279 thousand tons, up 364 thousand tons [2] - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 1414590.4 million US dollars, down 101585.5 million US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 1239320.2 million US dollars, up 78919.3 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton: 11.48%, down 0.35%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton: 11.47%, down 0.33% [2] - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 8.94%, down 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.02%, up 0.06% [2] Industry News - As of September 16, 2025, non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,118 lots, down 53 lots from the previous week; non - commercial short positions were 112,767 lots, down 8,738 lots; net short positions were 42,649 lots, down 8,685 lots [2] - In August 2025, the survey by the Cotton Growers Branch of the China Cotton Association showed that the national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and the national cotton output was expected to be 7216 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, 321 thousand tons higher than the previous forecast, reaching a new high since 2013 [2] - ICE cotton futures were stable on Monday after hitting a more than two - week low. The December cotton futures contract fell 0.07 cents, or 0.09%, to settle at 66.22 cents per pound [2]