Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report From the fundamental perspective, demand is not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remains at a moderately weak level, and the previous decline in the futures market has digested the bearish impact of a bumper harvest. Currently, there is no strong driving force for the market, and it is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was reported at 63.93 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.21 cents per pound or 0.33% from the previous week. The spread between the March - May contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reported at -1.26 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton continued to fluctuate. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was reported at 13,460 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton or 0.07% from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,371 yuan per ton, a decrease of 435 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 917 yuan per ton, a decrease of 425 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January - May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated, reported at 15 yuan per ton, an increase of 35 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: According to the latest monthly supply - demand report data from the USDA, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to the September estimate. Among them, the production in the US increased by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the production in Brazil increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the production in India remained at the estimated 5.23 million tons; and the production in China increased by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36%. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of November 14, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.1 percentage points compared to the average of the past five years (72.6%); the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons [9]. - **View and Strategy**: It is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The trading strategy recommendation is to wait and see [9][11]. 2. Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and spreads of US cotton contracts, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [23]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [37]. - **Cotton Imports**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton are presented, as well as the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China [39][42]. - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn are shown [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented [47]. - **Sales Progress**: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are presented, as well as the raw material and finished product inventories of spinning mills [52][54]. 4. International Market Situation - **US Situation**: Charts show the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the good - excellent rate of US cotton, production, planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio [58]. - **Brazil Situation**: The planting area, production, and export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio are presented [70]. - **India Situation**: The planting area, production, consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are shown [78].

郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2025/11/19 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 郑棉：集中上市压力渐显 受益于"双十一"促销前置，服装消费呈现企稳复苏态势。10月分，纺织品服装零售额达1471亿元， 同比增长6.3%，增速环比提升1.6个百分点，显著跑赢社会消费品零售总额增速。 新棉上市近半 核心观点 11月美农报告调增美国和中国产量预估，整体偏空；随着新棉加工量的增加，市场对新棉度棉花产量预 估有所上调；下游需求一般，产成品有累库迹象不过整体压力不大。籽棉收购进入尾声，新棉集中上市下供 给压力渐显，预计短期内郑棉或偏弱运行。 关注：宏观、需求、政策 11月美农偏空 11月美农未对美棉收获棉价进行调整，上调单产，最终使产量预估较9月份上调20万吨；上调中国棉花 产量预估22万吨；上调巴西棉花产量预估11万吨。最终，全球棉花产量预估较9月份上调52万吨，期末库存 预估较9月份上调60万吨，整体偏空。 纺服终端市场内外分化，国内消费表现良好 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年10月，我国纺织品服装出口额为22.619亿美元，同比下降 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton: Bullish Factors Exhausted, Continued Rise Losing Momentum" [1][6][21] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wang Xiaobei [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Xinjiang seed - cotton procurement on Zhengzhou cotton prices is gradually weakening as the procurement nears completion. The positive news from Sino - US trade has been priced in, and downstream demand is weakening marginally, with mainly rigid - demand restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks the impetus for a continued rise. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be hedging pressure to some extent. Key factors to monitor are the macro - environment, demand, and policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cotton Production and Price - As of October 30, the national new cotton picking progress was 87.1%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the national delivery rate was 90.4%, 3.5 percentage points higher; the national new cotton processing rate was 39.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher; and the national new cotton sales rate was 14.2%, 9.3 percentage points higher [4]. - As of November 4, 2025, the national new cotton inspection volume was 2.0819 million tons, still up 34.24% year - on - year, although the year - on - year growth rate had declined significantly compared to the previous period [4]. - Recently, the seed - cotton purchase price has generally remained stable, with some regional differences. In northern Xinjiang, the mainstream purchase price is stable at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram due to reduced resources; in southern Xinjiang, the mainstream price of high - lint, low - moisture and impurity seed cotton is maintained at 6.40 - 6.50 yuan per kilogram [4]. 2. Sino - US Trade Policy Impact - In late October and early November, the US and China adjusted tariffs. The US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl" tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the so - called 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year. China continued to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, retained the 10% additional tariff, and stopped implementing the relevant tariff announcement on imported US cotton (15%). The most direct impact of the mutual tariff reduction may be reflected in exports, stabilizing market expectations, and enhancing business confidence, but it is difficult to see a significant increase in export orders in the short term [5]. 3. Cotton Price Index and Market Price Movements - From October 30 to November 6, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,600 yuan/ton to 13,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of the active contract of ICE cotton fell from 65.09 cents/pound to 64.48 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.61 cents/pound [7]. - The Cotlook A price index decreased from 77.4 cents/pound on October 30 to 0 (a decrease of 77.40 cents/pound) on November 6; the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged at 53,000 rupees/candy from October 30 to November 6 [9]. - The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased slightly from October 30 to November 6. For example, the price of Indian C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton, Vietnam C32S by 30 yuan/ton, and Indonesia C32S by 30 yuan/ton [10]. - The arrival prices of imported cotton from the US and Brazil decreased from October 30 to November 6. For example, the 1% tariff price of US EMOT M decreased by 141 yuan/ton, and the 1% tariff price of Brazilian cotton decreased by 192 yuan/ton [11]. 4. US Cotton Situation - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week, a 53% decrease from the four - week average, and a 19% decrease from the same period last year. The US government shutdown led to the suspension of new data release by the USDA [20]. 5. Domestic Cotton Inventory and Sales - As of November 5, 2024, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was about 2.1578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 31.82% [36]. - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,281 sheets; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 18 sheets [59]. 6. Downstream Market Conditions - The downstream raw material inventory of yarn mills (cotton) and fabric mills (cotton yarn) is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [40]. - The downstream start - up load and finished - product inventory situation is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [43]. 7. Price Difference and Profit Situation - As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 20,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 19,870 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 70 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 14,820 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn was 13,605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 50 yuan/ton [48]. - As of this Thursday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under the sliding - scale tariff was - 616 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton; the price difference with the 1% tariff was 724 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 83 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price was 1,624 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 149 yuan/ton [50]. - As of this Thursday, on the futures market, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 6,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of - 1,486 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 30 yuan/ton, and the loss margin expanded by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - In the short term, the upward space for cotton prices is limited, and they will fluctuate within a narrow range. New cotton harvest is at its peak, increasing hedging pressure. The textile industry's peak season is lackluster, with limited downstream demand orders. Domestic commercial inventories are at a historical low, cushioning price drops. Although costs have recovered, textile enterprises are still generally operating at a loss. The basis has slightly declined, and spot prices are firm. The rising seed cotton purchase price, increased processing costs, and adjusted production expectations support cotton prices, but the weak recovery of downstream demand restricts price increases [3]. Section Summaries 01 Market Review - **US Cotton Weekly Review**: US cotton fluctuated weakly, trading around 65 cents/pound. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751 to 69,367 contracts, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2,020 to 114,787 contracts, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2,771 to - 45,420 contracts [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Review**: Zhengzhou cotton rose under pressure, trading at 13,350 - 13,610 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,540 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 205 yuan or 1.54%. As of October 24, the registered and forecasted cotton warehouse receipts totaled 3,188 contracts, equivalent to 133,896 tons [10]. - **Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data**: Spot prices were generally stable, but trading was light. The seed cotton purchase price has been rising since the start of the season, and the current price is 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, providing some support for cotton prices. The overall spot basis has narrowed, and many cotton merchants have lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton production will reach 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be 6.911 billion tons, a 9.2% increase, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - **Demand**: Demand is weaker than in previous years. Domestic demand has no obvious positive factors, while exports have slightly improved. Weaving mills'开机率 has declined after the holiday, and they are purchasing raw materials on a wait - and - see basis [27][33]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 409 - 519 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 950.8 - - 835.3 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to last week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of October 24, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a weekly increase of 278,000 tons but 202,800 tons lower than last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a decrease of 46,800 tons from the previous month [42]. 03 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September forecast, global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. Total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - **US Cotton Export**: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have stopped being released [47]. - **US Cotton Growth Status**: The report does not provide detailed information on US cotton growth status.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the domestic market, the supply side shows that in mid - October 2025, the new cotton picking and selling progress in Xinjiang is faster than last year, but recent cold and snowy weather will slow down the picking. The new cotton price is around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the cost is still supported. The demand side indicates that the spinning mills' operating rate is low, and the peak season is weak, so the restocking enthusiasm is expected to be low. Overall, the large - scale acquisition and processing of new - season cotton bring significant hedging demand, with upward pressure and cost - based support below. Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,575 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 19,820 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 117,362 lots, down 10,259 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 139 lots, down 59 lots. - Cotton main contract positions were 599,556 lots, up 6,744 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions were 23,684 lots, up 449 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 2,526 lots, down 39 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 6 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) was 14,784 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,106 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. - China's yarn price index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,213 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,716 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton imports were 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, unchanged. - The profit from imported cotton was 733 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. - The monthly cloth output was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 8.07%, down 1.26%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 8.07%, down 1.22%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.57%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.98%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton in the 2025/26 season was 4,331,712 bales, totaling 978,606 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.07%. The cumulative notarized inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 961,248 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.69%. - ICE cotton futures fell on Wednesday due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which delayed the release of USDA reports and left the market without clear trading guidance. The December ICE cotton futures contract closed down 0.68 cents, or 1.06%, at 63.74 cents per pound [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Report title: New cotton listing stage, under pressure [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fundamental aspects: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17, meeting market expectations, and China-US leaders' phone call promoted trade negotiations. In the domestic market, the CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year with a slight month-on-month decline, and the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to slow down to 3.4%. The USDA September report was bearish, with no adjustment in the US and a slight increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio outside China. On the supply side, the expectation of a bumper harvest is clear, and the listing period is earlier than usual. The opening price of machine-picked seed cotton was in line with market expectations and then declined slightly. The commercial cotton inventory is rapidly decreasing, and the end-of-September inventory is expected to be 80-90 million tons, the lowest in recent years. In August 2025, cotton imports increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative imports in the 2024/25 season were 105 million tons, a 68% year-on-year decrease. On the demand side, the profit situation of textile enterprises has improved, but there is still a shortage of downstream orders. The operating rate of textile enterprises first increased and then decreased, and the finished product inventory continued to decline. Domestic consumption in August was okay, but the cumulative year-on-year increase continued to narrow. Overseas market consumption has recovered, but China's export situation remains weak [7][55]. - Viewpoint: October is the peak period for Xinjiang cotton listing and processing. Attention should be paid to the processing and circulation of new cotton and the inventory accumulation speed. Under the pressure of a bumper harvest this year and hedging during the listing period, the trend will still be weak. Due to more pre-hedging this year, the pressure has been advanced, and the overall decline in October may narrow. Pay attention to the support performance of the integer关口 of the main contract. In the far month, pay attention to the demand performance and macro policy changes [7][55]. - Strategy: Short on rallies, sell call options, and converge the internal and external price difference [7][55]. - Important variables: Reserve policy; tariff changes; listing progress [7][55]. Group 3: Market Review - ICE cotton: In September, the main contract of ICE cotton continued to fluctuate in a wide range, with the trading center moving down, and the monthly decline was 1.6%. The USDA September supply and demand balance sheet made no adjustments in the US, and the inventory-to-sales ratio outside China increased slightly. The report was slightly bearish. The Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points met market expectations, and the macro boost was relatively limited. The net long position of CFTC funds remained low, and the capital driving willingness was low [9]. - Zhengzhou cotton: In September, Zhengzhou cotton changed from rising to falling, with a monthly decline of 7.2%. In September, the new cotton listing period began. The accumulated temperature in the main producing areas was good during the growth stage. The market generally expected the new cotton supply this year to be 7.3-7.5 million tons, with a clear expectation of a bumper harvest and an earlier listing period. Coupled with more pre-hedging pressure than in previous years, Zhengzhou cotton was mainly under pressure in September [11]. Group 4: Global Cotton Supply and Demand - USDA September report adjustments: The report was overall bearish. In the US, the output was increased by 0.2 million tons to 2.878 million tons, and the ending inventory remained unchanged. In India, the beginning inventory was increased by 2.6 million tons to 2.171 million tons, the output was increased by 10.9 million tons to 5.225 million tons, the imports were decreased by 2.2 million tons to 0.61 million tons, the exports were increased by 6.5 million tons to 0.283 million tons, and the ending inventory was increased by 4.8 million tons to 2.28 million tons. In China, the beginning inventory was decreased by 20.7 million tons to 7.585 million tons, the output was increased by 21.8 million tons to 7.076 million tons, the imports were decreased by 2.2 million tons to 1.132 million tons, the consumption was increased by 21.8 million tons to 8.382 million tons, and the ending inventory was decreased by 22.9 million tons to 7.396 million tons. In Brazil, there was no adjustment. Overall, the global cotton output was increased by 23.1 million tons to 25.621 million tons, the trade volume was increased by 5.2 million tons to 19.031 million tons, the consumption was increased by 18.3 million tons to 25.872 million tons, the ending inventory was decreased by 16.8 million tons to 15.924 million tons, a 1.04% month-on-month decrease [14]. Group 5: Domestic Supply and Demand - New-year output forecast: In August 2025, the survey by the China Cotton Association showed that the national cotton planting area was 44.823 million mu, a 1.8% year-on-year increase. Due to better weather and proper water and fertilizer management by cotton farmers, the cotton growth was good. The total output in Xinjiang reached a new high, and the national expected total output was 7.216 million tons, an 8.3% year-on-year increase and a 321,000-ton increase from the previous period, the highest since 2013 [19]. - Cotton purchase and processing: In late September, seed cotton was gradually picked and listed across the country. In Xinjiang, multiple rainfall and cooling affected the spraying effect of defoliants, and the large-scale machine-picking time was postponed. From September 22 to 28, the domestic spot and futures prices of lint cotton fluctuated and declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton also decreased. The price of hand-picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 7.3-7.6 yuan/kg at the beginning to 7.1-7.3 yuan/kg, and the price of machine-picked cotton decreased from 6.2-6.4 yuan/kg to 6.0-6.3 yuan/kg. Affected by the high moisture content of newly picked seed cotton, processing enterprises were generally cautious to ensure purchase quality and adjusted the purchase rhythm according to market changes. The purchase price of seed cotton in the inland was relatively stable, mostly between 7-7.5 yuan/kg. Recently, the picking speed has slowed down due to continuous rainfall and inability to dry [21]. - Inventory situation: In mid-September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons from the end of last month; the industrial cotton inventory was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the end of last month. The commercial cotton inventory continued to decline rapidly in September, and the end-of-September inventory is expected to be 800,000-900,000 tons, the lowest in recent years. The industrial cotton inventory level decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory for rigid demand, currently at a neutral level in previous years. In September, the yarn inventory index was 26.43 days, a decrease of 2.28 days from last month; the grey fabric inventory index was 29.83 days, a decrease of 3.03 days from last month [25]. - Cotton import volume: In August 2025, the import volume was 70,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons and a month-on-month increase of 17,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 590,000 tons, a 72.6% year-on-year decrease. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.05 million tons, a 68% year-on-year decrease [30]. - Textile enterprise processing: As of September 26, according to the statistics of the Cotton Textile Information Network, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.1 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from last week; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.8 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last week; the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 8.2 days, an increase of 0.3 days from last week; the cotton grey fabric inventory was 30.7 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from last week. As of September 26, the yarn load index in China was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2% from last week; the grey fabric load index in China was 52.5%, a decrease of 0.3% from last week. In September, due to the decline in cotton prices, the profit situation of textile enterprises improved, but the shortage of downstream orders still existed. Weaving factories postponed yarn procurement due to the expected decline in cotton prices, disrupting the peak season rhythm. The operating rate of textile enterprises first increased and then decreased in September, and the finished product inventory was in a downward trend [32][33]. - Textile demand: In August 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a 3.1% year-on-year increase. From January to August 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 940 billion yuan, a 2.9% year-on-year increase. Among them, the clothing retail sales from January to August were 670.8 billion yuan, a 2.2% year-on-year increase. In August 2025, the textile and clothing export volume was 26.5 billion US dollars, a 5.1% year-on-year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing export volume was 197.3 billion US dollars, a 0.3% year-on-year decrease. From the perspective of textile and clothing import data in the US, EU, and Japan, in June 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing imports in the EU were 970,000 tons, a 12.6% year-on-year increase; in July 2025, the textile and clothing imports in the US were 1.01 billion square meters, a 1.6% year-on-year increase; in August 2025, the textile and clothing imports in Japan were 210,000 tons, a 2.1% year-on-year decrease. Overall, domestic consumption performance was okay, but the cumulative year-on-year increase continued to narrow. External demand consumption recovered, and the US market's year-on-year imports continued to rise in July, but China's export situation remained weak [42].

Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Cotton Strategy Quarterly Report: Q4 2025" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of cotton is expected to decline first and then rise. In the international market, the fundamentals provide some support, but the driving force is limited, and macro - level factors may cause market sentiment to fluctuate. In the domestic market, there is short - term supply pressure during the cotton concentration listing period, but there are also positive factors, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in the fourth quarter [11][12] Summary by Directory Supply - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a decrease of 259,000 tons or 8.2% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 7.076 million tons, but the domestic general expectation is between 7.2 - 7.5 million tons [6] - Affected by drought, the proportion of US cotton - growing areas is still high, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton is gradually decreasing. High - level drought - affected areas are increasing rapidly, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather disturbances [43][46] Demand - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton consumption is expected to be 25.873 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [7] - In August, the monthly retail value of US clothing and clothing accessories was $27.183 billion, a 1% month - on - month increase and an 8.3% year - on - year increase [7][64] - In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 104.51 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative retail sales from January to August were 940.04 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [7][70] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.06%, a 0.18 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][72] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52.73%, a 2.31 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 50.42%, a 3.12 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][77] Import and Export - In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 1.56 million tons year - on - year; imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 100,000 tons year - on - year [8] - In August, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $14.146 billion, a 10.08% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to August was $10.2761 billion, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease [8][84] - In August, the monthly export value of Chinese textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was $12.393 billion, a 1.43% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to August was $94.513 billion, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [8][81] Inventory - As of mid - September, China's commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 700,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.32 days, a 0.38 - day week - on - week decrease; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.28 days, a 0.94 - day week - on - week decrease [9][94] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.7 days, a 0.65 - day week - on - week decrease; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.22 days, a 0.48 - day week - on - week decrease [9][96] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 7.78 days, a 0.26 - day week - on - week increase; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 31.18 days, a 1.4 - day week - on - week decrease [9][98] - The speed of cotton warehouse receipt liquidation has increased. As of September 25, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595, a decrease of 3,127 compared to August 28 [106] Option - The historical volatility of cotton is gradually decreasing, and the historical volatility cone is at a moderately low level [107]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The international cotton market is affected by tariff games, demand concerns, and new cotton harvest pressure, leading to a weakening trend in cotton prices. The poor export data from USDA also contributes to the weak performance [8]. - The domestic cotton market has low downstream textile enterprise operating rates, slow yarn inventory digestion, and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New flower listings restrict price drops, but strong basis limits further decline [8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - side approach on rallies, but stay on the sidelines before the National Day. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Summary by Directory Market Overview Price Situation - Futures and spot cotton prices, as well as related price indices, are under downward pressure. The NYBOT 2 -号 cotton futures closed at 66.27 (down 0.05% week - on - week), the international cotton index M declined by 0.89% to 73.83, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract price dropped 2.30% to 13,405 [5]. - Cotton import profits at the spot and futures levels are shrinking, while the loss in yarn imports is narrowing. The cotton basis strengthened this week [5]. Supply - Demand Factors - Globally, according to the USDA September report, cotton production is expected to increase by 0.91% to 25.6542 million tons, and inventory is expected to decrease by 1.04% to 15.9445 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio dropped to 61.55% [7]. - In the domestic market, production is expected to increase slightly by 3.17% to 7.085 million tons. Commercial inventory decreased by 32.34% to 1.4817 million tons, and imports increased by 40% to 70,000 tons. Textile exports decreased by 0.85% [7]. Spot Market Price and Spread - Spot cotton and yarn prices are in a high - level volatile and slow - decline state, with imported cotton prices at a low level. Cotton import profits remain relatively large [13][22]. - The basis of cotton and yarn showed a rebound this week [19]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - The USDA September report shows an increase in global cotton production and a decrease in inventory. US upland cotton exports decreased week - on - week [26][29]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase according to the September reports of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and USDA. Commercial inventory is in a destocking state, and port inventory continues to decline [33][37]. - Cotton imports rebounded month - on - month, but overall imports weakened. Textile enterprise operating rates are stable, yarn inventory is slowly decreasing, and cotton raw material inventory is declining. Cotton yarn imports did not increase significantly, and textile exports are not bad [40][42][45]. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate slowed down [50].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to a combination of weak demand during the traditional peak season and expectations of abundant new cotton supply in the upcoming year [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - In September, the average domestic cotton spot price was 14,601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 316 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous month [1]. - The price decline is attributed to the approaching new cotton harvest and the anticipated increase in production, alongside a lack of strong demand from the textile sector [1][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship in the cotton market is shifting from tight to loose, with new cotton harvests expected to increase supply significantly [2]. - In 2025, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is projected to increase by 8.68%, with total production potentially reaching 7.1 million tons, an increase of approximately 11.29% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Cost and Processing Insights - The processing margins for Xinjiang cotton have been under pressure, leading to a decrease in risk appetite among processors, with seed cotton prices currently at 6.2 yuan/kg [2]. - The estimated cost of cotton lint is around 14,324 yuan/ton, which is lower than the current market price, indicating potential challenges for processors if prices continue to fall [2][4]. Group 4: Seasonal Demand Characteristics - The cotton demand typically exhibits seasonal characteristics, with weaker demand observed in July and August, leading to increased inventory levels among cotton spinning enterprises [5]. - Although there was a slight improvement in demand in September due to the onset of autumn and winter orders, the overall increase in orders remains modest, resulting in cautious purchasing behavior from textile manufacturers [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Weekly Report | 2025 - 09 - 15 - Author: Li Shue, Cotton Futures Analyst - Report Date: 2025 - 09 - 15 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but the specific rate cut amplitude remains a concern. Market expectations for the rate cut amplitude are somewhat divided based on US economic data [3][32]. - In 2025, the national cotton planting area was adjusted up by 2.71 million mu to 47.306 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is 43.58 million mu, with a total output estimated at 7.108 million tons [3][32]. - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long run [3][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 One - Week Data Overview - The CRB commodity price index closed at 301.72 points on September 12, up 3.95 points from September 5. The Wenhua Commodity Index on September 12 was 163.7, down 1.42 points or 0.86% from September 5 [2][10][31]. - On September 12, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was reported at 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.67 cents or 1% from September 5. The main Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract closed at 13,860 yuan per ton on September 12, down 140 yuan from September 5, with the position decreasing by 6,893 lots to 506,000 lots [2][10][31]. - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. Gold rose by 40.9 dollars per ounce, crude oil rose by 0.63 dollars per barrel, US soybeans rose by 18.5 cents per bushel, and US corn rose by 10 cents per bushel [10]. - The import cotton CNF quotes of various countries decreased. For example, the US E/MOTM decreased by 0.3 cents per pound, and Brazil M decreased by 0.6 cents per pound [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Basic Situation 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On September 12, the raw material prices showed mixed trends compared with September 5. Polyester staple fiber and viscose decreased, while CCI3128 increased and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased [14][15]. 3.2.2 Yarn Price Trends - On September 12, the prices of domestic and imported yarns decreased compared with September 5 [18][20][21]. 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On September 12, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,446 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty was 1,303 yuan per ton, wider than that on September 5. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM (sliding - scale duty) was - 143 yuan per ton, also wider than that on September 5 [22]. - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed on September 12 [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis 3.3.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of September 12, the Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts were 5,710 lots (280,000 tons), with 0 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 245,000 tons, down from 280,000 tons on September 5 [26]. 3.3.2 Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis - On September 12, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,446 yuan per ton, wider than that on September 5 [28]. 3.3.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis - The latest PPI data in the US added complexity to the Fed's policy debate. In China, the consumer market was generally stable in August, and the industrial producer price index improved [30]. - At the end of August, the national cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease from the previous month and lower than the same period last year. The cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was slightly decreasing, and the yarn and grey fabric inventories were also decreasing [30][31]. - Technically, the MACD green column of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was shrinking, the DIFF and DEA formed a dead cross, and the KDJ indicator also formed a dead cross, indicating weakening technical indicators [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From August 22 - 28, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton was 55,542 tons, a 37% increase from the previous week. The shipment of upland cotton was 35,085 tons, also a 37% increase. The net signing of Pima cotton this year decreased by 62%, and the shipment decreased by 69% [39]. - As of August 26, the CFTC fund net long position was - 71,720 lots, a decrease of 10,706 lots from the previous week [41]. 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On September 12, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was reported at 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.67 cents or 1% from September 5. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a golden cross and diverged upward, indicating strengthening technical indicators [42]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - In the medium - and short - term, cotton may continue to be stable and slightly strong, while it may face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long run. - Downstream textile enterprises can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton when the raw material prices fall [44].