中泰期货烧碱周报 ——液氯价格未能如预期下跌 烧碱期货价格承压下行 2025 . 9 . 2 8 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 本周期（20250919-0925）中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.5%，较上周环比+0.6%。西北新增装置减产检修，负荷下滑；华北、 | | | | 华东有装置检修结束提负，负荷提升。具体来看，西北-2.8%至86.3%；华东+4.5%至79.9%，华北+1.2%至79.6%，其中山东+0.3%至88.0%。隆众测算， | | | | 下周来看，除西南外，其他6大区均有不同程度提负。预计下周烧碱产能利用率85.9%左右，周产量84.57万吨左右。（预估数据源自隆众资讯） 本周期（20250919-0925），中国氧化铝产量185.5万吨，环比上周186.1万吨下滑；山东氧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. The烧碱 market sees a decline in 32% alkali prices and stable 50% alkali prices. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues, and non - aluminum demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and new alumina production [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16), with an East China basis of - 205 yuan/ton (-6) and a South China basis of - 105 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Spot Prices**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+10), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was 5.2 dollars/ton (+0.1) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.11% (+0.68%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1] 烧碱 - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2537 yuan/ton (-11), and the Shandong 32% liquid alkali basis was - 37 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid alkali was quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong 50% liquid alkali was quoted at 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of Shandong caustic soda was 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Liquid alkali factory inventory was 39.12 tons (+1.29), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.08 tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+0.60%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The alumina operating rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the East China printing and dyeing operating rate was 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 89.82% (+0.30%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. Attention should be paid to pre - National Day replenishment sentiment and macro - environment impacts [3] 烧碱 - The 32% alkali price has been continuously decreasing, while the 50% alkali price has stabilized. Production may increase slightly as some maintenance enterprises resume operations. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues. The 50% alkali inventory reduction drives the Shandong caustic soda inventory decline, but the national liquid alkali inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to the 32% alkali sales situation, non - aluminum demand resilience, new alumina production, and downstream replenishment [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Fluctuate widely with the macro - environment [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Wait and see [4] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [4] 烧碱 - **Single - side Trading**: Wait and see [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [5]

氯碱日报 | 2025-09-24 烧碱现货价格下跌，高度碱订单好转 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4891元/吨（-47）；华东基差-171元/吨（+7）;华南基差-81元/吨（+17）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4720元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价4810元/吨（-30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2890元/吨（+0）；电石利润48元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-657元/吨（-155）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-652元/吨（+20）；PVC出口利润-4.6美元/吨（-0.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.6万吨（-0.4）；PVC社会库存53.5万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率76.91%（-3.38%）； PVC乙烯法开工率72.00%（-5.20%）；PVC开工率75.43%（-3.96%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量75.6万吨（+6.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2535元/吨（-69）；山东32%液碱基差-35元/吨（+69）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50 ...

PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.6万吨（-0.4）；PVC社会库存53.5万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率76.91%（-3.38%）； PVC乙烯法开工率72.00%（-5.20%）；PVC开工率75.43%（-3.96%）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-09-23 氯碱区间震荡，关注节前订单需求 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4938元/吨（-12）；华东基差-178元/吨（+12）;华南基差-98元/吨（+12）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4760元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+50）；电石价格2890元/吨（+50）；电石利润48元/吨（+10）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-657元/吨（-155）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-652元/吨（+20）；PVC出口利润-4.5美元/吨（-0.9）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量75.6万吨（+6.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2604元/吨（-37）；山东32%液碱基差-104元/吨（+37）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the subsidy for liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, but due to the significant decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong contracted on a month - on - month basis. The chlor - alkali maintenance plan in September was basically fulfilled. This week, multiple units such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua will restart, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to rise on a month - on - month basis [3]. - The profit of alumina continued to shrink. Although enterprises have not yet cut production due to cost, their purchasing intention has weakened significantly. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. Considering the relatively loose supply of liquid caustic soda during the pre - National Day replenishment period for downstream, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain under pressure [3][4]. - In the futures market, there are still expectations for anti - involution and restocking of new alumina plants. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely, and the main basis may remain negative. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of new alumina production capacity in the future. The short - term operating range of SH2601 is expected to be around 2580 - 2680 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May were 2604 yuan/ton and 2696 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 37 yuan/ton and 27 yuan/ton [3]. - The position of the main caustic soda contract was 114,144 lots, an increase of 12,443 lots; the trading volume was 477,688 lots, an increase of 35,228 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 11,026 lots, a decrease of 14,988 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 940 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 2950 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. As of September 18th, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 378,300 tons, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing [3]. - From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% month - on - month to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% month - on - month to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76% [3]. - Due to the impact of the shutdown and maintenance of multiple domestic units last week, the capacity utilization rates in various regions decreased to varying degrees. SH2601 fluctuated and declined, closing at 2604 yuan/ton. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC continues to be weak, with the futures price falling and the basis strengthening slightly. Supply pressure remains high in the long - term, demand is weak, social inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is poor. The export situation may weaken in the fourth quarter [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable. Supply and demand are affected by factors such as maintenance, downstream demand, and transportation restrictions. The cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4946 yuan/ton (-3), the East China basis is -266 yuan/ton (-17), and the South China basis is -156 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4680 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4790 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -64 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -223 yuan/ton (+8), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -592 yuan/ton (-52), and the PVC export profit is 16.7 US dollars/ton (+0.3) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (-2.1), the PVC social inventory is 50.8 tons (+1.5), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate is 75.24% (-0.83%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate is 68.66% (-3.78%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 73.33% (-1.69%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 72.5 tons (-6.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2692 yuan/ton (-7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 27 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 744.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 662.53 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1428.45 yuan/ton (-30.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.95 tons (-1.69), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (-0.22), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.40% (-0.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.78% (+0.14%), the East China printing and dyeing operation rate is 64.73% (+0.87%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 86.02% (-0.20%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Maintenance increases, the operation rate decreases month - on - month, but the overall operation rate is at a high level. Newly - added production capacity is gradually being put into production, and the long - term supply pressure is high [3]. - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products remains low, enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders and deliveries increase month - on - month. The export in July exceeded expectations due to pre - anti - dumping tax rush exports, but the export situation may weaken in the fourth quarter [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate and is relatively high compared to the same period. The warehouse receipt pressure of the 09 contract is large [3]. - Profit: There is still room for compression of chlor - alkali profit, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: Chlor - alkali enterprises' maintenance increases, the operation rate decreases month - on - month but is at a high level compared to the same period. The operation rate in Shandong rises slightly, but may decline slightly later due to Yantai Wanhua's maintenance [3]. - Demand side: The profit of alumina is acceptable, the operation rate is stable month - on - month, the delivery volume to alumina plants increases, and the spot price remains stable. The non - aluminum operation rate increases slightly month - on - month, but there is a fear of high - priced goods. Transportation is restricted in late August due to the parade, and factory inventory may accumulate later. The order backlog in Shandong is acceptable [3]. - Profit: The liquid chlorine price is weak, cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy - PVC: For single - side trading, take a wait - and - see approach; for inter - delivery spread trading, take a wait - and - see approach; there is no inter - variety strategy [4]. - Caustic Soda: For single - side trading, be cautiously bullish; for the SH10 - 01 spread, conduct a positive spread trading when the price difference is low; there is no inter - variety strategy [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC is affected by the sentiment of the black sector, with its futures price rebounding. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the impact from the macro and cost sides. The supply pressure is large in the medium - to - long - term, and the demand is weak. The cost side needs continuous attention. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain weak [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda continues to rise. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is improving. The cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures price and basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5047 yuan/ton (+28), the East China basis is - 297 yuan/ton (-8), and the South China basis is - 187 yuan/ton (+2) [1]. - **Spot price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (+30) [1]. - **Upstream production profit**: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2755 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 39 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 223 yuan/ton (+8), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 592 yuan/ton (-52), and the PVC export profit is 14.1 dollars/ton (+1.0) [1]. - **Inventory and operation rate**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (-2.1), the social PVC inventory is 50.8 tons (+1.5), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 76.07% (-3.14%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 72.44% (-5.48%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.02% (-3.82%) [1]. - **Downstream order situation**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 72.5 tons (-6.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures price and basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2732 yuan/ton (-9), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 45 yuan/ton (+40) [1]. - **Spot price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 860 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1350 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream production profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1696 yuan/ton (+31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 713.3 yuan/ton (-88.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 676.28 yuan/ton (+41.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1387.74 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - **Inventory and operation rate**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.64 tons (-4.14), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.36 tons (+0.03), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 83.20% (-0.90%) [2]. - **Downstream operation rate**: The operation rate of alumina is 85.78% (+0.14%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 63.86% (+2.40%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 86.22% (+0.18%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - **Supply side**: The number of maintenance increases, and the operation rate decreases month - on - month. However, the overall operation rate is at a high level due to the support of chlor - alkali profits. With the new production capacity gradually reaching full production, the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is large [3]. - **Demand side**: The operation rate of downstream products remains low, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. The export signing and delivery volume increase week - on - week. Affected by the rush to export before the implementation of anti - dumping duties, the PVC export in July exceeded expectations. After India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties, the rush to export is expected to continue, and the export expectation in the fourth quarter weakens [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory continues to accumulate and is relatively high compared to the same period. The warehouse receipt pressure of the 09 contract is large [3]. - **Cost side**: Coal and ethylene in the cost side have shown strong consolidation recently, and attention should be paid to their further impact on the PVC cost [3]. Caustic Soda - **Supply side**: The number of maintenance of chlor - alkali enterprises increases, and the operation rate decreases month - on - month but remains at a high level compared to the same period. The operation rate in Shandong increases slightly, also at a high level compared to the same period. After the maintenance of Yantai Wanhua, the operation rate may decline slightly [3]. - **Demand side**: The profit of alumina is acceptable, and the operation rate is stable month - on - month. The delivery volume of caustic soda to alumina plants, the main downstream, is lower than the daily consumption, and downstream manufacturers continue to raise the purchase price. The operation rate of non - aluminum sectors increases slightly month - on - month, and the procurement is good. Affected by the military parade in mid - to - late August, the transportation of caustic soda is restricted, and the downstream stocking sentiment improves. With the approaching of the peak season, the pending orders in Shandong are acceptable, and the enterprise inventory pressure decreases [3]. - **Cost and profit**: The price of liquid chlorine is weak, but the cost support still exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Neutral [4] - **Inter - delivery spread**: Wait - and - see [4] - **Inter - commodity spread**: None [4] Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait - and - see [5] - **Inter - delivery spread**: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread when the price is low [5] - **Inter - commodity spread**: None [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2) Core View - The domestic liquid caustic soda market had fair transactions today, with prices stable in most regions, rising slightly in Shandong, Hubei, and Guangxi for 32% liquid caustic soda, and rising in Shandong for 50% liquid caustic soda. The game between bulls and bears is intense, and it is recommended to continue to stay on the sidelines [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - **Raw Salt**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest regions remained stable at 200, 250, and 200 respectively [1] - **Calcium Carbide**: The price in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 to 2260, while that in Shandong remained at 2755 [1] - **Liquid Chlorine**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest regions remained stable at -200, -200, and -600 respectively [1] - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The price in Shandong increased by 10 to 850, while that in Jiangsu remained at 900 [1] - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The price in Shandong increased by 10 to 1350, while that in Jiangsu remained at 1400 [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: The prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, and Southwest regions remained stable at 3300, 3150, 3725, and 3750 respectively [1] - **PVC**: The prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remained stable at 4750 and 4525 respectively [1] Futures and Basis - **Futures Main Contract**: The closing price increased by 54 to 2741 [1] - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong decreased by 23 to -85, and that in Jiangsu decreased by 54 to 72 [1] Price Spreads - **50% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda Spread**: The spread in Shandong decreased by 11 to 44 [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes - 50% Caustic Soda Spread**: The spread in Guangdong remained stable at 585 [1] - **50% Caustic Soda Regional Spread**: The spread between the East and Shandong decreased by 10 to 220 [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes Regional Spread**: The spreads between Southwest and Inner Mongolia, and between Southwest and Shandong remained stable at 600 and 450 respectively [1] Profits and Electricity Prices - **Chlor - Alkali Profits**: The profit in Shandong increased by 35 to -90, while that in the Northwest decreased by 68 to 781 [1] - **Electricity Prices**: The electricity prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remained stable at 0.75 and 0.5 respectively [1] Operation Strategy - The game between bulls and bears is intense, and it is recommended to continue to stay on the sidelines [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: The PVC market is affected by macro - sentiment, with the disk fluctuating strongly. However, the fundamentals remain weak. Supply pressure is high due to increased production, while demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation. Although the cost provides some support, the 09 - contract has significant warehouse receipt pressure [5]. - Caustic Soda: The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. Demand from the alumina sector is improving, and the spot price is expected to stabilize and rebound. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking during the peak season and the production schedule of Guangxi alumina [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5016 yuan/ton (-31), the East China basis is -136 yuan/ton (+31), and the South China basis is -76 yuan/ton (+31) [3]. - Spot: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is priced at 4880 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4940 yuan/ton (+0) [3]. - Upstream Profit: The production gross profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC is -252 yuan/ton (-231), and that of ethylene - based PVC is -489 yuan/ton (-10). The export profit is 6.9 dollars/ton (-2.1) [3]. - Inventory and Operation: The in - factory inventory is 33.7 tons (-0.8), the social inventory is 48.1 tons (+3.3), and the overall operation rate is 77.75% (+4.49%) [3]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (-2.2) [3]. Caustic Soda - Futures: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2481 yuan/ton (-21), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 19 yuan/ton (+21) [3]. - Spot: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and that of 50% is 1310 yuan/ton (+10) [3]. - Upstream Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 765.8 yuan/ton (+40.0) [4]. - Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the operation rate is 85.10% (+1.20%) [4]. - Downstream Operation: The alumina operation rate is 85.73% (+0.15%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+0.00%) [4]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The operation rate has increased significantly, and new production capacity is being gradually put into production, leading to an expected increase in output and high supply pressure [5]. - Demand: The operation of downstream products remains at a low level, with enterprises purchasing on a just - in - time basis. Export performance is affected by policies and the rainy season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is high. The 09 - contract has significant warehouse receipt pressure [5]. - Cost: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are relatively stable, providing some cost support [5]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The upstream operation rate is at a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. Attention should be paid to the operation rate in Shandong from late August to September [5]. - Demand: Alumina operation is improving, and the spot price is expected to stabilize and rebound. Non - aluminum demand remains weak [5]. - Inventory: The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased, and downstream enterprises may stock up in advance [5]. Strategy - PVC: The single - side strategy is neutral, and the V09 - 01 inter - period reverse spread is recommended [6]. - Caustic Soda: The single - side strategy is to wait and see [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic liquid caustic soda market had fair transactions today, with prices in most regions remaining stable. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose steadily, while the price of 48% liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased. Chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong had good shipments and low inventory pressure. Due to some enterprises having low loads or undergoing maintenance, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda remained stable, and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda rose steadily. Demand in Jiangsu was average, and the price of high - concentration caustic soda decreased slightly. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 - 865 yuan/ton, and the local large - scale alumina factory's purchase price was 750 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 1270 - 1350 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. The PVC price in Shandong increased by 30 yuan, and the futures主力 contract's closing price increased by 10. With intense long - short game, it is recommended to continue to stay on the sidelines. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Product Price Changes - **Raw Salt**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and the Northwest remained unchanged at 200, 250, and 200 respectively [1]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 15 to 2325, while the price in Shandong remained at 2780 [1]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and the Northwest changed to - 100, - 50, and - 600 respectively, with increases of 100, 30, and 0 [1]. - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions remained stable at 800, 890, etc. [1]. - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions remained stable at 1300, 1400, etc. [1]. - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: Prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, the Southwest, etc. remained unchanged [1]. - **PVC**: The price in Shandong increased by 30 to 4830, and the price in Inner Mongolia remained at 4580 [1]. - **Futures and Related Indicators**: The futures主力 contract's closing price increased by 10 to 2502, and the basis in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 [1]. 2. Price Spreads - **50% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda Spread**: Remained at 100 in Shandong [1]. - **Caustic Soda Flakes - 50% Caustic Soda Spread**: Remained at 625 in Shandong [1]. - **Regional Spreads of 50% Caustic Soda and Caustic Soda Flakes**: Remained unchanged in various regions [1]. 3. Profits and Electricity Prices - **Chlor - Alkali Profits**: In Shandong, it increased by 100 to - 165, and in the Northwest, it increased by 20 to 818 [1]. - **Electricity Prices**: Remained unchanged in Shandong and Inner Mongolia at 0.75 and 0.5 respectively [1].