GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 原油 供应端未来的变化预计仍是价格主导因素，需求端缺乏增长潜力显著提升的驱动。OPEC+于10月5日开会决定，11月份将保持与10月份一样 的增产幅度13.7万桶/日，目前看这一增产幅度不及市场预期预期，国庆节间国际原油价格没有大幅下跌。地缘上俄乌冲突继续，谈判无进展， 印度持续采购俄罗斯原油，地缘政治带来的风险溢价有所缓解。长期看油价承压的格局难以扭转，预计布伦特油价预计将在60-75美元/桶区 间内低位震荡。 PX&PTA PX装置开工率维持偏高，但下游检修增多负荷下降，供需紧平衡格局松动，PXN预计偏弱运行。近期PTA装置变动较多，恒力石化220万吨 PTA装置按计划停车检修，逸盛新材料360万吨PTA装置降负，独山能源四期PTA新装置投产时间推迟。PTA加工差再度降至165元/吨附近。 成本端原油再度回落，且目前需求整体表 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to inventory depletion, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment. The Brent crude oil has strong support at the $65 level [1]. - The prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound slightly following the oil price, but the upside space is limited due to increasing supply in the future [2]. - The asphalt price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of the demand peak season [2]. - The prices of polyester products such as TA and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors like increased maintenance in the fourth quarter, slow recovery of terminal demand, and pressure on long - term oil prices [4]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slow recovery of production, stable downstream tire demand, and weakening export support [6]. - The methanol price is expected to enter a phased bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen, but there are risks in short - term unilateral long positions [6]. - The polyolefin market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern with marginal improvement in demand and little change in supply [8]. - The PVC price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to high - level supply, slow recovery of domestic demand, and weakening exports [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The EIA reported a decline in US crude and refined product inventories last week. An agreement on resuming oil exports in the Iraqi Kurdistan region was reached. The Brent crude has strong support at $65, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. Attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and changes in supply affected the market. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support, but increasing supply will pressure the market in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the asphalt price rose. The social inventory rate decreased, the refinery inventory level increased, and the plant operating rate increased. The traditional consumption peak season has备货 demand, but high - level supply may limit price increases [2]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, the prices of TA, EG, and PX rose. Some devices were affected by typhoons and other factors. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the prices of various types of rubber rose. There were disturbances in production areas, and the supply and demand increased simultaneously. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [6]. - **Methanol**: Supply is at a low level due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The price is expected to enter a phased bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are given. Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season. The market will show a weakly fluctuating pattern [8]. - **PVC**: The PVC market price was adjusted. Domestic real estate construction is stabilizing but weak year - on - year. Supply is high, demand recovery is slow, and exports are affected by policies. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, etc. of various energy - chemical varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on September 24 and 23 [10]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA reported that US crude and refined product inventories decreased last week, and the net import volume of crude oil increased while the export volume decreased [12]. - Eight oil companies in the Iraqi Kurdistan region reached a principle agreement on resuming oil exports, which will allow about 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil to be transported through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are provided [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads of inter - period contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. are presented [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are shown [59][61][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, etc. are provided [69][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77]

欧盟制裁及库存变化下，油价短期持续震荡 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：9月22日，SC期货价格为483.0元/桶，较9月19日的487.0 元/桶小幅回落4.0元，跌幅为0.82%；WTI期货价格为62.34美元/桶，较9月 19日的62.36美元/桶微降0.02美元，跌幅0.03%；Brent期货价格为66.01美 元/桶，较9月19日的66.05美元/桶小跌0.04美元，跌幅0.06%。价差方面， SC - Brent价差为1.88美元/桶，较9月19日的2.42美元/桶走弱0.54美元， 跌幅22.31%；SC - WTI价差为5.55美元/桶，较9月19日的6.11美元/桶走弱 0.56美元，跌幅9.17%；Brent - WTI价差为3.67美元/桶，较9月19日的 3.69美元/桶走弱0.02美元，跌幅0.54%；SC连续 - 连3价差为2.6元/桶， 较9月19日的4.5元/桶大幅走弱1.9元，跌幅42.22%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 地缘政治方面，当地时间9月19日欧盟委员会通过新一轮对俄制裁措施草 案，涵盖能源等领域，这可能会对俄罗斯原油的供应和贸 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine are supporting oil prices, which are expected to remain volatile in the short term. The report notes that WTI crude futures saw a slight increase of 0.03%, while Brent crude futures decreased by 0.33% during the specified period [6]. - OPEC+ is pushing for increased production despite low international oil prices, aiming to regain market share, which may lead to further pressure on global oil supply [6]. - The demand side shows significant crude oil inventory reductions in the U.S., with gasoline also experiencing a drawdown, providing some support for oil prices. However, as the summer travel season ends, refined oil consumption is expected to shift from peak to off-peak [6]. - In the fluorochemical sector, popular refrigerants like R32 and R134a continue to see price increases due to tight supply and steady demand from downstream industries such as automotive and air conditioning [6]. - The report highlights the strong growth in China's automotive production and sales, which increased by 13.0% and 16.4% year-on-year, respectively, in August 2025, boosting demand for refrigerants [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - Geopolitical tensions are providing short-term support for oil prices, with WTI and Brent prices showing mixed trends [6]. - OPEC+ discussions on production capacity are ongoing, with a focus on regaining market share despite low prices [6]. - U.S. crude oil inventory reductions and seasonal shifts in refined oil consumption are influencing market dynamics [6]. Fluorochemical - The market for refrigerants remains tight, with prices for R32 and R134a continuing to rise [6]. - Demand from the automotive and air conditioning sectors is supported by government policies promoting consumption [6]. - The reduction in production quotas for second-generation refrigerants is expected to tighten supply further [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, fluorochemical sector, and semiconductor materials. It highlights the resilience of major domestic oil companies in the face of price volatility and recommends monitoring companies like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resources are recommended for investment [7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted for its positive trends in inventory reduction and domestic substitution [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, specifically recommending China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Insights - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to keep oil prices fluctuating in the short term. The Brent crude oil price peaked at over $68 per barrel recently, but has since retreated following the Fed's rate cut and the EU's price cap on Russian oil [1][7]. - The report highlights that the EU plans to intensify sanctions against Russia's oil sector, targeting various critical aspects of the global oil industry, although previous sanctions have had limited impact on Russian oil exports [1][7]. - The report anticipates that oil prices will remain supported by the Fed's ongoing rate cuts and OPEC+'s production increase plans, leading to a predominantly volatile market in the near term [1][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of September 19, the Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.68 per barrel, down 0.46% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $62.68 per barrel, down 0.02% [2][35]. - The U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.48 million barrels per day, a decline of 10,000 barrels from the previous week, and the refinery throughput also fell by 390,000 barrels per day [2][8]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.29 million barrels to 41.536 million barrels as of September 12, while gasoline inventories fell by 2.35 million barrels [3][9]. - The report notes a significant drop in Russian oil exports due to drone attacks affecting key facilities, with estimates suggesting a reduction in refining capacity to below 5 million barrels per day [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. Investing in leading companies with strong performance and high dividends, such as China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical [11]. 2. Considering companies with stable earnings and low production costs, like China National Offshore Oil Corporation [11]. 3. Monitoring companies in the growth phase of production, such as New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas [11]. Company Performance - The report indicates that the oil and gas sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the sector down 1.9% as of September 19, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.3% [12][13]. - Notable stock movements include Baoli International, which saw a significant increase of 15.24%, while Bohui Co. experienced a decline of 7.02% [17][19].

Group 1 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to keep oil prices fluctuating in the short term [1] - Russian oil production may face cuts due to drone attacks on key export ports and refineries, with production capacity reduced by nearly 20% [1] - The EU is considering sanctions against Indian companies aiding Russian oil trade, while the Brent crude price peaked at over $68 per barrel [1] Group 2 - As of September 19, the Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.68 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.46% [2] - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.48 million barrels per day, with refinery processing rates dropping to 16.42 million barrels per day [2] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 9.29 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 0.235 million barrels [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on stable industry leaders with high dividends like China National Petroleum and Sinopec, as well as companies with low production costs like CNOOC [3] - The domestic encouragement for oil and gas production growth suggests potential investment opportunities in companies like New Natural Gas and Man Oil [3]

Core Viewpoint - In August 2025, Brent crude oil futures averaged $67.3 per barrel, down $2.1 from the previous month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $64.0 per barrel, down $3.1 from the previous month. Oil prices declined in early August following a significant rise at the end of July due to easing geopolitical tensions. Mid-August saw support for oil prices as concerns about international relations grew after U.S. President Trump's push for talks among Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine did not yield agreements. By late August, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the global central bank conference raised expectations for a rate cut in September, boosting the outlook for oil demand and leading to some recovery in oil prices [2]. Supply Side - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 547,000 barrels per day for September. The 38th OPEC+ ministerial meeting in December 2024 decided to extend collective production cuts of 2 million barrels per day and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2026. Additionally, a voluntary cut plan of 2.2 million barrels per day was extended until the end of March 2025. OPEC+ has significantly increased production in May, June, and July, with increases of 411,000 barrels per day, three times the original plan, and announced a further increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, four times the original plan. On August 3, OPEC+ announced a substantial increase in oil production targets for September by 547,000 barrels per day, completing their production increase target a year ahead of schedule [3]. Demand Side - Major international energy agencies project an increase in crude oil demand of 680,000 to 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025, and an increase of 700,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. According to the latest reports from OPEC, IEA, and EIA, crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 105.14, 103.66, and 103.72 million barrels per day, reflecting increases of 129, 68, and 98 thousand barrels per day compared to 2024. For 2026, demand is projected at 106.52, 104.38, and 104.91 million barrels per day, with increases of 138, 70, and 119 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025. The refining industry in China is facing challenges due to aging capacity, and the petrochemical sector is undergoing capacity assessments, which may significantly impact independent refineries. The overall supply-side is expected to improve due to clear signals against "involution" policies [4]. Price Outlook - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is expected to range between $60 and $70 per barrel. This outlook considers the high cost of oil production for OPEC+ and the elevated costs associated with new shale oil wells in the U.S. [5]. Related Companies - Key recommendations include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the studied energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillation" [1][2][3][4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of oil prices is oscillating and rebounding, but the rhythm is still changeable. Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asian buyers in October. Russia's offline refining capacity reached a record high in August, and it extended the ban on refined oil exports [1]. - The fuel oil market is affected by factors such as sanctions, inventory changes, and supply and demand. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure will continue, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened. The FU sentiment is highly volatile and is expected to oscillate [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by factors such as rainfall, capital, and project construction. In September, the demand is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of demand [2][3]. - The polyester market has improved demand expectations, but the cost - end crude oil price has declined. The PX and TA have large - scale accidental maintenance, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - The rubber market is supported by tire exports, and the short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber follows the cost fluctuations [3][4]. - The methanol market has a short - term increase in port inventory, and the domestic supply will gradually recover. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - The polyolefin market is gradually moving towards a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillation pattern [5]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has a stable increase in domestic demand, but the export will weaken. The production profit will be gradually compressed, and the price is expected to oscillate [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the oil price center moved up. WTI October contract closed up $0.45 to $64.60 per barrel, a 0.7% increase. Brent October contract closed up $0.57 to $68.62 per barrel, an 0.84% increase. SC2510 closed at 486.6 yuan per barrel, up 5.5 yuan per barrel, a 1.14% increase. It is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.21%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2511 closed up 0.14%. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.57%. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.66%, EG2601 closed down 0.36%, and PX futures main contract closed down 0.78%. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2601 rose 185 yuan per ton, NR main contract rose 165 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 270 yuan per ton. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Polyolefin**: The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The polyvinyl chloride market is expected to oscillate [5] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on August 29, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate in the past month [7]. 3.3 Market News - From August 22 - 28, the gasoline inventory in the Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp (ARA) center decreased from 104.5 tons to 99.1 tons, the fuel oil inventory increased from 104.6 tons to 104.9 tons, the diesel inventory increased from 203.2 tons to 208.5 tons, the aviation fuel inventory decreased from 94.6 tons to 91.9 tons, and the naphtha inventory increased from 55.2 tons to 58.4 tons [9]. - Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asian buyers in October, with the flagship Arab Light crude oil's official selling price possibly being lowered by 40 - 70 cents per barrel [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025 [11][13][15][17][19][21][22] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025 [24][25][27][31][33][35][37] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products [38][39][41][44][47][49][52][55] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products [56][57][60][61][62] - **Production Profit**: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of the production of some energy and chemical products [63][65][67] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and related analysts Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in US crude oil inventories supports the rebound of oil prices, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and oil prices are in a low - range oscillating rhythm. Geopolitical factors such as the Iran nuclear negotiation deadline and potential sanctions also affect the oil market [1]. - The consumption of marine fuel in Singapore increased in July, but the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market shows signs of stabilization. In the short term, the upward space of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [3]. - The asphalt market is expected to see a situation of increasing supply and demand in August, and the price will oscillate in a range due to the lack of obvious one - sided driving force [4]. - The polyester market shows signs of demand recovery. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - The rubber market has firm raw materials, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The methanol market has a short - term low supply due to many domestic device overhauls, but the supply will gradually recover. The port inventory is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand. The cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply oscillations and gradually recovering demand. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. The EIA inventory report showed a decline in US crude oil and gasoline inventories but an increase in distillate inventories. As the deadline for Iran's nuclear negotiation and cooperation approaches, geopolitical risks exist. Indian companies have resumed purchasing Russian oil. The current destocking of US crude oil supports the price rebound, but the continuous driving force remains to be observed, and the price is in a low - range oscillating rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In July, Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 19 - month high. High - sulfur fuel oil demand increased significantly, and its market share is approaching 40%. In August, the supply of traditional fuel oil in Singapore is still abundant. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply in September [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in September is expected to increase year - on - year and month - on - month. The social inventory rate decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory level increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the north is stable, while the demand in the east is expected to recover. The price will oscillate in a range in August [4]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures all rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined. A Malaysian MEG device has restarted. PX supply and demand are recovering, and PTA and ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber all fell. Rubber raw materials are firm, but tire demand and开工 decline, and inventory accumulates. The short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions and international prices are given. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a short - term low. The supply will gradually recover, and the arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate narrowly with a near - weak and far - strong structure [6][7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are provided. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the current downstream enterprise开工 is low. As the peak demand season approaches, the industry开工 rate is expected to increase, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillating pattern [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China all decreased. The supply oscillates at a high level, and the demand is gradually recovering. The basis and monthly spread are relatively high, and it is expected that the monthly spread will narrow, and the price will oscillate weakly [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data on the basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their respective changes from August 19th to 20th [9]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. As of August 15th, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels, which was more than the market expectation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 419,000 barrels [12]. - JODI data shows that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June dropped to a three - month low, with exports falling from 6.191 million barrels per day in May to 6.141 million barrels per day. However, the crude oil production in June was 9.752 million barrels per day, higher than that in May [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. from 2021 to 2025 are presented [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips are provided [32][34][38][41][44][45]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different contracts of various products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber are shown [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spreads, PP - LLDPE spreads, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spreads are presented [67][68][69][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are provided [72][76]. 4. Research Team Members - **Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director**: Zhong Meiyan, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research [78]. - **Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst**: Du Bingqin, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University, has won multiple industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, a finance master, has won multiple awards and is engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, PTA, MEG, and other futures varieties [80]. - **Methanol/PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with an engineering master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), is a mid - level economist and has years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81].

Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery on London dropped 81 cents to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.87% at 481 yuan per barrel [1] - The spokesman for the Commander - in - Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces said that the withdrawal of the US - led international coalition from Iraq was "an achievement of the government", and Iraq was capable of combating terrorism and maintaining national security and stability without external assistance [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent plans to raise tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, stating that India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [1] - Germany's economy ministry said that the oil transportation route from Russia's Friendship Pipeline to Kazakhstan was briefly interrupted due to Ukraine's attack on relevant infrastructure [1] - If the US maintains higher tariffs on India than on other Asian markets, it will pose risks to Fitch's forecast of India's 6.5% economic growth rate this fiscal year. The US imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on India on August 7, and another 25% tariff will take effect on August 27. Fitch believes that India's IT service companies and domestic - focused industries will be minimally affected, but higher tariffs will pressure Indian companies' operating performance and may bring downward risks to domestic prices of products like steel and chemicals [1] Investment Logic - Before the Russia - US summit, Ukraine has recently increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including key pumping stations of the Friendship Pipeline and several major Russian refineries. The attack has led to the interruption of the southern line of the Friendship Pipeline, stopping Russia's crude oil transportation of about 200,000 barrels per day to Hungary and Slovakia. The drone attack on the Ryazan refinery in Russia has also caused its shutdown, affecting crude oil processing volume and refined oil exports. The tense situation between Russia and Ukraine still has a significant impact on the oil market [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]