财报显示，在AI需求推动和公共云收入增长带动下，阿里云季度收入继续加速增长34%，AI相关产品收 入连续9个季度实现三位数同比增长。 根据Omdia报告，2025年上半年，阿里云在中国AI云市场的份额达35.8%，超过第二到第四名的总和。 近期，NBA、万豪、中国银联、博世等，都与阿里云达成AI合作。 在企业级市场加速增长的同时，阿里上线千问App，将在AI to B和to C领域齐发力。千问App公测一周 新下载量已超1000万。未来，千问还将陆续接入电商、地图、本地生活等阿里业务生态场景。 与此同时，本季度，电商客户管理收入（CMR）同比增长10%，即时零售业务收入同比增长60%，单位 经济效益（UE）自9月以来显著改善，用户留存率提升，平均订单价格提高，业务规模持续增长，并带 动淘宝App的月活跃消费者快速增长。 此外，阿里旗下高德9月上线"高德扫街榜"，基于用户的"行为+信用"，构建全新的线下服务信用体系。 本季度，虎鲸文娱经营业绩改善，高德、盒马、阿里健康收入同比增长。 新华财经北京11月25日电 25日，阿里巴巴集团发布2026财年第二季度财报，集团收入2477.95亿元，剔 除已出售业务影响，收 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report In the third week of November, the scope of construction shutdown in the north accelerated its expansion, showing the characteristics of weak supply and demand for investment products. Both new and second - hand housing transactions followed seasonal trends, with the former showing a slight stabilization. In terms of inflation, food prices changed from rising to falling, and the drag from pork and vegetable prices increased. In the export sector, container shipping prices continued to diverge, with SCFI weakening and CCFI remaining strong. Port transportation volume weakened compared to the previous week, indicating the impact of the off - season. In the investment field, the decline in cement prices continued to widen. The apparent demand for rebar improved and inventory clearance accelerated, mainly due to supply contraction. In the real estate sector, new housing sales recovered seasonally, while second - hand housing sales continued to weaken, and both showed year - on - year negative growth. For the bond market, the impact of fundamental factors on the bond market further weakened under the influence of the off - season. Policy expectations for the current year were not strong, and the market focused on the possibility of "front - loaded efforts" in the next year. [3][33] Summary by Directory Weekly High - Frequency Tracking: Export Cargo Volume Maintains Resilience Inflation - Related: Food Prices Decline Food prices decreased slightly. From November 15th to 22nd, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 0.74% week - on - week, and vegetable prices decreased by 1.32% week - on - week, both weaker than the previous week. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.09% and 0.08% week - on - week respectively, changing from rising to falling. [8] Import and Export - Related: Container Shipping Prices Diverge, SCFI Continues to Weaken The decline of SCFI widened, while CCFI continued to rise. This week, the CCFI index increased by 2.6% week - on - week, and SCFI decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The container transportation market was basically stable, and the freight rates in the ocean - going routes showed an adjustment trend. In the North American routes, the growth of transportation demand was weak, and freight rates continued to decline. From November 10th to 16th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 5.4% and 1.1% week - on - week respectively. This week, they increased by 3.1% and 0.4% year - on - year respectively, continuing to weaken compared to the previous week under the influence of the off - season. The increases of BDI and CDFI indexes further expanded. [11] Industry - Related: Most Production Operating Rates Continue to Decline - Coal price increase significantly narrowed. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 0.26% week - on - week, with a significant narrowing of the increase. - Rebar price increase widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 1.2% week - on - week. - Asphalt operating rate accelerated its decline. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, a 7.0% year - on - year decrease. - Copper price changed from rising to falling. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Copper and LME Copper both decreased by about 0.9% week - on - week. - The decline of glass futures prices widened. This week, the market trading sentiment was cold, and most manufacturers continued to sell at reduced prices. [13][15][20] Investment - Related: New Housing Sales Slightly Stabilize, Second - Hand Housing Sales Weaken - Cement price decline slightly widened. This week, the weekly average of the national cement price index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week. - New housing sales seasonally stabilized. From November 14th to 20th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 1.936 million square meters, a 22.5% week - on - week increase and a 23% year - on - year decrease. - Second - hand housing sales slightly declined. From last Friday to this Thursday, second - hand housing sales decreased by 3.8% week - on - week and 7.6% year - on - year. [25][27] Consumption: Passenger Car Retail Sales in Mid - and Early November Continue to Decline - Passenger car retail sales in mid - and early November showed a year - on - year negative growth. From November 1st to 16th, the national retail sales of the passenger car market were 886,000 vehicles, a 14% decrease compared to the same period last November and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last month. - Crude oil price changed from rising to falling. As of November 21st, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 2.8% and 3.4% week - on - week respectively, weaker than the previous week. [28][32]

Report Information - Report Date: November 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly Report (2025.11.16 - 2025.11.22) [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yi Qiang, Wang Zheyi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The economic situation shows mixed trends. Industrial production is weak, while personnel flow continues to rise, and freight prices increase slightly. Consumption and some segments of the real - estate market show different trends, and export - related indicators also have their own characteristics. [3] Summary by Catalog 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, with the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank bond index rising the most by 0.7%. Stock indices and commodities generally fell, with the ChiNext Index falling the most by 6.15%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index dropping by 4.07%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 1.19%, while the US dollar appreciated by 0.14% against the RMB. [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production performance is weak. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27%, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate dropped by 4.20 pcts to 24.80%, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 pcts to 82.17%, while the crude steel output increased by 6.00%. In the real - estate chain, the rebar operating rate rose by 1.31 pcts to 43.29%, the float glass operating rate decreased by 0.34 pcts to 74.96%, and the mill operating rate dropped by 0.39 pcts to 33.29%. In the consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate increased by 0.10 pcts to 91.33%, the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.89 pcts to 74.29%, and the methanol operating rate dropped by 0.17 pcts to 83.77%. In the automotive chain, the automotive semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.61 pcts to 71.07%, and the automotive full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 3.19 pcts to 61.31%. [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow continued to rise, and freight prices increased slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 6.45% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations increased by 1.51%, and the 7DMA of international flight operations increased by 0.84%. Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased, while those of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou increased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period last year. [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile sales growth declined year - on - year, and price performance decreased. The previous period's automobile wholesale decreased by 5.00% year - on - year, and retail sales decreased by 9.00% year - on - year. Both the 4WMA of wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates declined. The weekly movie box office decreased by 22%, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 22%. Agricultural product prices decreased, with pork prices dropping by 0.83% week - on - week and vegetable prices falling by 6.08% week - on - week. [3] 5. Investment - Construction performance was good, and the commercial housing market had a seasonal uptick. The weekly cement inventory ratio increased by 0.1 pcts, the cement price index increased by 0.43%, and the cement shipping rate remained the same as last week. The rebar inventory decreased by 3.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.3 pcts, and the rebar apparent demand increased by 6.7% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was good. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 24.2% week - on - week. By city - tier, the transaction area in first - tier cities decreased, while those in second - and third - tier cities increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 0.1%, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land premium rate decreased week - on - week. [3] 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and most shipping indices increased. The weekly port cargo throughput decreased by 1.1%, and the container throughput decreased by 5.4%. The BDI index increased by 7.06% week - on - week, the domestic SCFI index decreased by 3.98%, and the CCFI index increased by 2.63%. [3]

债 券 周 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 联系人 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 22 日 地产季节性回升，港口吞吐量下行 ——高频经济周报（2025.11.16-2025.11.22） 风险提示：国内政策超预期，海外环境变化超预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com ⚫ 工业生产：生产表现较弱。从上游来看，本期全国电厂样本区域用煤量周度环比下行 1.27%，石油沥青装置开工率周度环比下行 4.20pcts 至 24.80%，高炉开工率周度环比下 行 0.62cts 至 82.17%，粗钢产量周度环比上行 6.00%。从地产链来看，螺纹钢开工率周 度环比上行 1.31pcts 至 4 ...

Market Overview - On November 21, the A-share market experienced a correction, with most ETFs declining. The only ETFs that rose were bond and money market ETFs, while media ETFs showed gains against the trend [1][2] - On November 20, despite the three major A-share indices pulling back, the ETF market saw a net inflow of approximately 9 billion yuan, indicating active bottom-fishing funds [3][7] ETF Performance - The media ETFs were the biggest gainers, with one rising by 0.22% and another by 0.10%, while rare metals and innovative energy-related ETFs saw declines exceeding 6% [3][4] - Four ETFs had transaction volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan, all of which were bond or money market ETFs, with notable activity in the Hang Seng Technology ETF and Hong Kong Securities ETF [5][6] Fund Inflows - The net inflow of funds into the ETF market on November 20 was about 9 billion yuan, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs like the CSI 500 ETF and the STAR 50 ETF [7][8] - The CSI 500 ETF had a net inflow of 7.60 billion yuan on the previous trading day and 25.91 billion yuan over the past week, indicating strong investor interest [8] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive, with a potential slow bull market emerging. Key sectors to watch include technology, consumption, high-end manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals [9] - There is a suggestion to focus on sectors benefiting from manufacturing recovery and technology growth, particularly in AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries [9] Cross-Border ETFs - As of November 21, several cross-border ETFs were trading at a premium, with the Nasdaq Technology ETF and Nasdaq 100 ETF showing premiums exceeding 10% [10]

Group 1 - The report highlights that after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasting 43 days, market liquidity has improved, leading to a rebound in equity markets, with MSCI Emerging Markets up 0.29% and MSCI Developed Markets up 0.43% [10][11] - Commodity ETFs performed exceptionally well, with an average weekly increase of 2.95%, reflecting strong price movements in precious metals and oil [10][11] - The report notes a net inflow of 29.597 billion yuan into ETFs this week, with all types of ETFs experiencing varying degrees of inflow except for bond ETFs, which saw a slight outflow [11][12] Group 2 - The report indicates that the stock ETF indices with the highest returns are primarily in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and chemical sectors, while the technology growth sector has shown caution due to concerns over AI bubble narratives [16][18] - The report mentions that the bond ETF market is seeing a preference for interest rate bonds over credit bonds, with convertible bond ETFs showing an average weekly increase of 0.44% [20][21] - The report emphasizes that the high dividend yield of 5.5% for Hong Kong stocks, compared to a 3.69 percentage point spread over the 10-year government bond yield, makes them attractive to investors seeking stable returns in a low-interest environment [23]

截至收盘，沪指跌0.46%报3972.03点，深证成指跌0.11%报13202点，创业板指跌0.2%报3105.2点，上证 50指数跌0.87%，北证50指数涨0.81%，沪深北三市合计成交19305亿元。 盘面上看，保险、银行、券商、医药、电力等板块走低，军工、煤炭、地产等板块拉升，锂矿、AI应 用、华为算力概念等活跃。 11月17日，沪指盘中震荡下探，创业板指盘中大幅下行，尾盘跌幅有所收窄；北证50指数逆市上扬。 光大证券表示，市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指 数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更 加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短 期或以震荡蓄势为主。配置方面，短期关注防御及消费板块，中期继续关注TMT和先进制造板块。市 场处于震荡阶段时，前期滞涨方向可能表现会更好，对应于本轮即为高股息及消费板块。中期来看，流 动性驱动行情下，行情中期TMT更容易成为主线，本轮或许也会如此。若行情转向基本面驱动，考虑 到当前行情或正处于中期，先进制造值得重点关注。 ...

Policy Financial Tools Dynamics - New policy financial tools have been established with a total issuance of 500 billion yuan, focusing on key areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][3] - The issuance breakdown includes 250 billion yuan from the China Development Bank, 150 billion yuan from the Agricultural Development Bank, and 100 billion yuan from the Export-Import Bank, supporting over 2,000 projects [3] Local Government Debt Issuance - From January to September 2025, local governments issued a total of 36,857 billion yuan in new special bonds, with Guangdong province alone exceeding 400 billion yuan [6][7] - The remaining quota for new special bonds nationwide is less than 1 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 83.8% against the planned 4.4 trillion yuan for the year [6][7] New Policies Released - The Central Committee has published recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need to expand effective investment and improve investment efficiency [13][14] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have released measures to boost service consumption and expand domestic demand, focusing on financial support [13][15] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued measures to strengthen the cultivation of innovative enterprises in the digital economy [13][16] Pilot Applications - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce have initiated pilot projects for new consumption formats and international consumption environment construction, targeting major cities for support [17][18] - Financial support for pilot cities includes subsidies of up to 4 billion yuan for super-large cities and 2 billion yuan for other cities, distributed in two batches based on performance evaluations [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market fluctuations are influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and concerns over AI market trends, leading to a correction in technology stocks and a rotation of funds towards sectors like lithium batteries and consumer goods [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The overseas market is experiencing overall volatility, with technology stocks undergoing a correction phase [1] - The end of the longest U.S. government shutdown has raised attention on upcoming key economic data and its potential impact on overseas markets [1] - A-share market continues in a consolidation pattern, with rapid sector rotation and a focus on themes like lithium batteries and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to focus on themes such as anti-involution and dividends during sector rotations, with an emphasis on technology sectors that are poised for a rebound [2] - The anti-involution area is becoming a key focus for macroeconomic regulation, enhancing the long-term investment value of related sectors [2] - The consumption sector is crucial for stabilizing the economic foundation, with particular attention on service consumption and new consumption models [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The recent surge in the lithium battery supply chain reflects a tightening supply-demand balance, boosting mid-term economic improvement expectations [1] - Financial data from October confirms signals of fund migration, suggesting a favorable liquidity outlook [1] - The anticipated policy implementations and rising price expectations are expected to clarify the logic behind anti-involution sectors, while the technology sector's trends and performance are entering a verification phase [1]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to enter a period of easing after experiencing trade frictions, with a pattern of "pressure in the first half, recovery in the second half" [2] - Major economies will show divergent growth dynamics, with the US facing pressure from tariffs and fiscal stimulus, but a potential recovery in the second half due to tax rebate policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - European and Japanese economies are projected to have weak growth in early 2026, with Japan possibly facing a brief technical recession, but expected improvements later in the year due to fiscal stimulus [2] China Economic Outlook - China's economy is projected to grow around 4.5% in 2026, with a narrowing contribution from exports, particularly to non-US markets [3][21] - Consumer spending is expected to maintain moderate growth despite pressures from limited income growth and wealth effects, supported by policy measures such as expanded subsidies for trade-ins [3] - Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to recover from an overheated state, showing moderate growth, while the real estate sector continues to face challenges [3][21] New Economy and Structural Changes - The new economy is becoming a significant growth engine for China, currently accounting for 15%-20% of GDP and contributing to a quarter of economic growth over the past five years [3][4] - Increased R&D investment and leading growth in fixed asset investment are driving rapid development in the technology sector, which is crucial for economic resilience [3] - Structural policies aimed at enhancing consumption, such as improving the social security system and optimizing income distribution, are expected to gradually release consumption potential [3][4] Long-term Themes - In the medium to long term, China's economic focus will be on four main themes: technological innovation, consumption, green development, and opening up to the outside world [4] - The potential for the consumption market will be gradually released through various policies, while foreign investors show increased interest in the Chinese market, particularly regarding innovation and real estate stabilization [4]