证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 24 年 月 日 名创优品（09896.HK） 内地同店全年逐季提速，海外运营效率提升 事件：11 月 21 日，公司披露截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日止三个月业绩。3Q25， 公司同店 GMV 实现中个位数增长；实现营收 58.0 亿元/同比+28.2%，经 调整净利润为 7.67 亿元/同比+11.7%；经调经营利润 10.2 亿元/同比 +14.8%，对应经调 OPM 17.6%/同比-2.1pct。 MINISO 国内：3Q25 门店净增 102 家，同店实现高个位数增长。①收 入：3Q25 名创优品品牌内地收入 29.1 亿元/同比+19.3%，内地收入逐季 加速。②开店及同店：3Q25 国内 MINISO 门店净增 102 家至 4407 家， 期内同店 GMV 实现高个位数增长；③展望：25 年 10 月中国内地同店增 长达到低双位数水平，我们预计全年内地有望实现中个位数同店增长。 MINISO 海外：同店持续改善，海外直营业务利润率同比提升。①收入： 3Q25，名创优品品牌海外业务实现收入 23.1 亿元/同比+27. ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of B.Duck (德盈) surged over 31% during trading, currently up 10.99% at HKD 1.01, with a trading volume of HKD 777,000, following the successful launch of its new IP "LIITE莉塔" Magic Genie Series on November 22 [1] Group 1: Product Launch - The "LIITE莉塔" Magic Genie Series was exclusively launched at MINISO Friends in Changsha on November 22, with simultaneous online availability on B.Duck's self-operated channels [1] - The launch was supported by promotional activities featuring popular figures and extensive multi-platform marketing, aimed at attracting a large number of young consumers [1] Group 2: Market Positioning - "LIITE莉塔" is the company's first original IP focusing on the Lolita style and targeting the female market, representing a significant innovation in the company's product lineup [1] - The IP is designed with the theme of "Stardust Fairy Tales and Female Awakening," specifically aimed at the Gen Z female consumer demographic [1] - This launch marks a milestone for the company in the trendy toy sector, enhancing its IP portfolio and strengthening its competitive position in the market [1]

Group 1: Events and Conferences - The 2025 World Computing Conference will be held from November 20 to 21 [1] - The CDCC 2025 Data Center Standards Conference is scheduled for November 20 to 21 [1] - The 2025 Quantum Technology and Industry Conference will take place on November 20 to 21 [1] Group 2: Stock Market Updates - The stock of HeFu China resumed trading today, with a cumulative increase of 256.29% during the period from October 28 to November 14, with 12 out of 14 trading days closing at the涨停 price [1] - *ST King Kong resumed trading with an adjusted opening reference price of 13.06 yuan per share, following the completion of its restructuring plan, increasing total shares from 216 million to 540 million [1] Group 3: Financial Technology Initiatives - The Hong Kong SAR Government and Shenzhen Local Financial Management Bureau jointly announced an action plan to create a global fintech center between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, aiming to establish over 20 cross-border data verification platforms in financial applications by the end of 2027 [3] Group 4: Industry Growth and Trends - The retail sales of trendy and collectible toys in China are projected to reach 558.3 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a rapid growth phase for the industry [7][8] - Factors such as rising disposable income, the emergence of emotional consumption, and the rise of domestic trendy culture and quality IP are driving the expansion of China's trendy toy market [8] Group 5: AI and Automation Developments - Google launched the Gemini3 AI application, which features a visual understanding accuracy of 72.7%, doubling the current advanced level [10] - Pony.ai announced a collaboration with SANY Heavy Truck and Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor to develop a fourth-generation autonomous truck family, aiming for mass production by 2026 [11] Group 6: Corporate News - CICC announced plans to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, with A-shares suspended from trading starting November 20, 2025 [13] - OpenAI partnered with Target to enhance retail experiences through AI-driven recommendations and productivity improvements [13] - Changying Precision reported over 80 million yuan in deliveries of humanoid robot structural components from January to August this year, with ongoing growth in overseas orders [13]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a comprehensive rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.73% to 4029.50 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.55% [2][8] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.07 trillion RMB, with nearly 4000 stocks experiencing gains [2][8] - The banking index (CITIC) rose by 14.8% from January 2, 2025, to November 11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.5 percentage points [13] Market Review - The performance of various sectors showed that the power equipment and non-ferrous metals industries led the gains, while public utilities and telecommunications sectors lagged [2][8] - In the concept sectors, fluorine chemical and organic silicon concepts led the rise, while fentanyl and Tonghuashun fruit index concepts fell [2][8] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increased by 0.56%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.80% [2][8] - In contrast, the US stock market indices all fell, with the Dow Jones down by 1.65%, the S&P 500 down by 1.66%, and the Nasdaq down by 2.29% [2][8] Important News - The People's Bank of China reported that the cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion RMB, with the broad money (M2) balance at 335.13 trillion RMB, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [3][9] - The stock of social financing reached 437.72 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [3][9] - RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion RMB during the same period [3][9] Retail Financial Business Changes - The contribution of retail financial business to total revenue increased from 39.6% to 45.4% from 2020 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% [10][11] - However, the profit contribution from retail financial business decreased from 39.1% to 31.7%, with a CAGR of only 0.2% [10][11] - The net interest income growth was the main factor for the increase in retail financial revenue contribution, with a CAGR of 8.5% [10][11] Retail Financial Asset Quality - The asset quality of retail financial business has weakened, with the non-performing loan ratio increasing and the provisioning for bad debts rising [11] - The proportion of retail loans in total loans decreased to 35.7%, down by 5.1 percentage points [11] - The share of housing-related loans fell from 64.7% to 54.7%, while the share of operational loans rose from 12.7% to 22.7% [11] Excavator Sales Trends - In October 2025, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, with domestic sales at 8,468 units and exports at 9,628 units [19][20] - Loader sales maintained high growth, with 10,673 units sold in October, reflecting a 27.7% year-on-year increase [19][20] - The total sales of excavators from January to October 2025 reached 192,135 units, up by 17% year-on-year [20] Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is entering a new growth phase, with domestic demand supported by equipment upgrades and large infrastructure projects [21] - The overseas market is becoming a significant growth engine, with excavator exports exceeding domestic sales in October [21] - The competitive landscape is shifting towards global operational capabilities and technological advancements [21]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant wealth changes among China's billionaires, particularly noting Zhong Shanshan's rise to the top with an increase of $26.3 billion, nearing $80 billion in total wealth [1][3] - Zhong Shanshan's success is attributed to his focus on the "essential needs" sector, specifically in the beverage industry, which remains stable regardless of economic fluctuations, providing consistent cash flow [3] - The article also points out the emergence of new billionaires like Zhang Yiming and others in the technology and new consumption sectors, indicating a shift in wealth towards areas driven by youth demand and technological advancements [3] Group 2 - The decline of traditional industries is exemplified by Wang Jianlin's exit from the billionaire list, reflecting the challenges faced by the real estate sector amid liquidity issues [3] - The fluctuations in the billionaire rankings are seen as a representation of changing market trends, emphasizing that there are no permanent wealthy individuals, only those who adapt to evolving sectors [3] - The article suggests that investment strategies should align with either stable essential sectors or emerging trends, mirroring the wealth logic of billionaires [3]

Group 1: Commodity and Technology Markets - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, ensuring a smooth launch and stable operation [1] - Omdia's research indicates that global tablet shipments are expected to reach 40 million units in Q3 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand in the Middle East and Central Europe [1] - CINNO Research reports a general decline in demand for LCD TV panels in November, with significant price drops expected for large-size panels, particularly a $10 decrease for 98"/100" panels [1] Group 2: Smartphone and Consumer Behavior - IDC's report shows that China's smartphone shipments in Q3 2025 are approximately 68.46 million units, reflecting a 0.5% year-on-year decline, continuing a downward trend [2] - A report on Z generation consumer behavior during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival reveals that about 40% of young people plan to increase their spending budget for 2025 [2] Group 3: Automotive and New Energy - The auction volume of second-hand new energy vehicles in China has increased by 52.6% in the first three quarters of the year, with total transaction value expected to exceed 10 billion yuan [3] - The auction model is facilitating the flow of second-hand vehicles from oversupplied first- and second-tier cities to demand-rich third- and fourth-tier cities [3] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk's 10-year compensation plan has been approved, potentially allowing him to earn nearly $1 trillion in stock if he meets stringent performance targets [4] - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman announced that GPT-6 is expected to achieve a "qualitative leap" compared to previous models [4] Group 5: Market and Regulatory Updates - The China Consumers Association has highlighted quality issues with trendy toy products, leading to increased consumer complaints regarding product defects and poor after-sales service [5] - Several companies, including Shanghai Xiba and Bayi Steel, are facing regulatory scrutiny for suspected violations related to information disclosure and short-term trading [5][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses MINISO's ambition to compete with POP MART by heavily investing in IP (intellectual property) products, while highlighting the challenges and consumer reactions to its new strategy [1][2][16]. Group 1: MINISO's Strategy and Market Position - MINISO is positioning itself as a global value retailer of trendy lifestyle products with a focus on IP design, aiming to replicate the success of POP MART [1][2]. - The company has launched its TOP TOY business and opened several MINISO LAND stores, which emphasize IP products, claiming that some upgraded stores have seen monthly sales increase by 8-10 times [1][2][26]. - Despite the ambitious strategy, there are doubts about MINISO's ability to compete on the same level as POP MART, with some consumers expressing skepticism about the brand's direction and execution [1][2][16]. Group 2: Consumer Reactions and Product Pricing - MINISO's new IP products have seen significant price increases, with some items doubling in price after IP collaborations, leading to consumer complaints about affordability [6][9][11]. - The aesthetic quality of the new IP products has been inconsistent, with some designs receiving negative feedback for poor craftsmanship and unattractive appearances [11][13][32]. - Consumers have noted a stark contrast in pricing, with previously affordable items now priced significantly higher, which has led to disappointment among long-time customers [9][11][32]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - MINISO's financial performance has shown signs of strain, with a reported revenue of 9.39 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 21.1% increase, but a net profit decline of 23.1% [26][30]. - The company is facing challenges in maintaining store numbers, with a reduction in both direct and franchise stores, indicating potential issues in market demand [26][30]. - The average transaction value has remained stable, but same-store GMV growth rates are declining, suggesting that the traditional retail model may be reaching its limits [26][30]. Group 4: IP Strategy and Future Outlook - MINISO's approach to IP is characterized by a focus on practical products rather than collectible items, which contrasts with POP MART's emphasis on emotional connections through its IP [16][21]. - The company's strategy involves rapid iteration and testing of IP products, which may lead to the premature elimination of potentially successful IPs due to a lack of patience in development [21][22]. - While the potential for IP-related business is recognized, the execution and quality of products are critical for long-term success, and current consumer feedback suggests that MINISO may need to reassess its approach [32][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector, specifically focusing on the潮玩 (trendy toy) industry [1]. Core Insights - The潮玩 market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to increase from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.11% [3][19]. - Dongguan is recognized as the "Capital of Trendy Toys" in China, housing over 4,000 toy manufacturers and nearly 1,500 supporting enterprises, accounting for approximately 85% of the domestic潮玩 production and 25% of global anime derivatives [3][28]. - The潮玩 industry in Dongguan has evolved through four stages: OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer), ODM (Original Design Manufacturer), OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer), and IP (Intellectual Property) integration, leading to a rise in original潮玩 IP production [3][29]. Summary by Sections 1.潮玩 Industry Overview -潮玩 differs from traditional toys by emphasizing artistic and personalized expression, often based on licensed cultural IP [11]. - The潮玩 market is diverse, with blind boxes holding the largest market share at 36.6% in 2024, followed by assembly toys and building sets at 19.6% [12]. 2. Dongguan潮玩 Industry Development Status - Dongguan's潮玩 industry is characterized by a steady optimization of its structure and a rich channel layout, with a focus on self-owned brands, licensed IP production, and OEM [31]. - In 2023, Dongguan's潮玩 industry achieved a revenue of nearly 23.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 19% [29]. 3. SWOT Analysis of Dongguan潮玩 Industry - **Strengths**: Strong policy support for the潮玩 industry, including initiatives to integrate AI into toy production and promote original IP development [39][40]. - **Weaknesses**: The industry faces challenges such as relatively low added value and brand recognition compared to national brands, with a significant reliance on OEM models [46][48]. - **Opportunities**: The rise of national cultural confidence and the trend of潮玩 going global present significant growth opportunities for Dongguan's潮玩 industry [3][24]. - **Threats**: Increased domestic competition and the comparative advantage of Southeast Asia in manufacturing costs pose challenges to Dongguan's潮玩 sector [3][24]. 4. Market Concentration - The潮玩 industry in China remains fragmented, with local manufacturers leveraging their unique advantages to break into broader markets [4][28]. 5. Industry Development Trends - The潮玩 industry is expected to continue evolving towards higher value-added segments, driven by technological advancements and policy support [3][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in both domestic and overseas markets in Q3 2025, driven by the continuous release of popular IPs [8] - The company is expected to maintain high profitability due to its strong IP operation capabilities and expanding overseas business [8] - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue and profit growth in the coming years, with net profit expected to reach RMB 12.74 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 307.57% [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 6,301 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36.46% [7] - Revenue is expected to increase to RMB 13,038 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 106.92%, and further to RMB 38,632 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 196.31% [7] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 1,082 million, with a significant increase to RMB 3,125 million in 2024 and RMB 12,739 million in 2025, indicating growth rates of 127.55% and 307.57% respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 0.81 in 2023 to RMB 9.49 in 2025 [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 54.4% in 2025 [7] Market Performance - The company reported a revenue growth of 245-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with domestic revenue increasing by 185-190% and overseas revenue by 365-370% [8] - The company launched a Halloween series of new products, which are expected to perform well in the Q4 sales season [8] - The company is also conducting a ten-year anniversary exhibition for its popular IP, which has received positive feedback and is expected to enhance brand visibility [8]

Core Viewpoint - UBS remains optimistic about Pop Mart's (09992) prospects due to the rising popularity of the Starry People series and the stabilization of second-hand market prices for the Labubu series after an initial supply-driven price drop [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - The third quarter sales data update, Christmas-themed product releases, and the upcoming animation will serve as catalysts for growth [1] - High-frequency data, such as credit card spending tracking, is expected to enhance stock price momentum [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 432 [1]