煤炭行业资深专家电话会议 20251114 摘要 2025 年中国煤炭进口量预计约为 4.8 亿吨，较 2024 年减少 6,000 万 吨，主要受煤价下跌和印尼政策影响。11 月煤价快速上涨导致电厂暂停 1 月份招标采购，可能影响 12 月进口量。 印尼 2025 年煤炭计划产量 7.35 亿吨，但实际产量或低于预期，小煤矿 因成本和劣质煤限制停产，俄罗斯冬季出海受限也影响供应。预计第四 季度月均进口量约 4,000 万吨。 印尼小煤矿 FOB 价格 55 美元时即亏损，目前 3,800 大卡印尼煤 FOB 价格约为 52 美元，导致小型矿山停产。即使价格回升，恢复生产也需 3-6 个月。 印尼政府计划 2026 年将煤炭产量降至 7 亿吨，旨在稳定煤价和税收， 因 2025 年煤价下跌影响税收收入。HBA 指数定价机制是稳定税收的重 要手段。 中国市场上 3,800 卡印尼煤与国内 4,500 卡煤价差超 100 元/吨，但近 期国内煤价虚高，电厂倾向于完成长协任务，价差对实际采购影响有限。 Q&A 目前港口动力煤价格已经突破 820 元，进口煤在价格上仍具有一定优势。如何 看待第四季度进口煤的市场冲击？ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In 2025, the coal market showed a deep V-shaped trend. Since July, due to policies and inspections, coal production has declined, while demand has been strong. Both thermal coal and coking coal have shifted from a loose to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation. In the fourth quarter, the tight supply - demand pattern is hard to reverse, and coal prices are likely to rise [2][17]. - The decline in coal production in Shanxi has a greater impact on coking coal. In addition, environmental inspections in Wuhai and the resumption of railway freight in Xinjiang have affected coal production. Although coking coal production is better than overall coal production, the supply is still tight [3][4][34]. - After the reversal of coal prices in July, imports have partially made up for the domestic supply gap. However, the import of coking coal from Mongolia has decreased in terms of high - quality coking coal, and the overall coal import situation is still severe due to Indonesia's new pricing policy [6][7]. - Steel mills' production has remained strong this year, driving up the demand for coking coal. The consumption of both coking coal and thermal coal has increased in the third quarter, leading to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [8]. - The total and structure of coking coal inventory have been optimized, and the thermal coal inventory has also shown a favorable trend, which supports coal prices [9]. - In the fourth quarter, coal prices are likely to remain firm. Coking coal, as a trading instrument, will continue to attract market attention. It is recommended to go long on coal at dips and adopt a strategy of going long on coal and short on ore [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Coal Price Trend Reversal, Supply - Demand Pattern Remodeled - In 2025, the coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend. Policy changes led to a decline in coal production since July, while demand was strong. Both thermal coal and coking coal shifted from a loose to a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [17]. 2. Stricter Coal Policies, Sharp Supply Contraction - Since the end of July, coal production has decreased month - on - month after inspections. Shanxi's production decline has a greater impact on coking coal. In addition, environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia and the resumption of railway freight in Xinjiang have affected coal production. Overall, coal production has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply of coking coal is tight [3][4][34]. 3. Imports Fill Part of the Gap, Russia and Mongolia Provide Large Increases - After the reversal of coal prices in July, imports have partially made up for the domestic supply gap. Mongolia's coking coal import has decreased in terms of high - quality coking coal, while Russia's import has increased significantly. The overall coal import situation is still severe due to Indonesia's new pricing policy [6][7]. 4. Continuous Consumption Growth, Structural Shortage - Steel mills' production has remained strong, driving up the demand for coking coal. The consumption of both coking coal and thermal coal has increased in the third quarter. Power plant coal consumption is high in the off - season, chemical coal consumption is at a high level, and building material coal consumption remains stable, resulting in a tight - balanced or structurally short supply - demand situation [8][43][50]. 5. Inventory Continues to Improve, Boosting Coal Prices Upward - Since the third quarter, the total and structure of coking coal inventory have been optimized. The thermal coal inventory has not increased further and is lower than last year's level. The inventory situation supports coal prices [9][65]. 6. Fourth - Quarter Market Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the tight supply - demand pattern of coal is hard to reverse. Coal prices are likely to remain firm. Although steel mills may cut production in the short term, the adjustment space for coking coal prices is limited. A strategy of going long on coal and short on ore can be considered [10][69].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal production and sales have shown an increase in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable rise in self-produced coal sales in Q3 [6][7] - The average selling price of coal has decreased significantly, leading to a decline in profit margins, but the company maintains a strong profitability outlook due to low production costs [8][11] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.046 billion yuan, down 49.74% [6] - The third quarter saw an operating revenue of 5.673 billion yuan, an increase of 9.98% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 391 million yuan, a decrease of 2.18% [6] Coal Production and Sales - The company reported a raw coal production of 26.6414 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 8.73% year-on-year, while the total coal sales were 30.0364 million tons, down 9.28% [7] - Self-produced coal sales reached 9.4743 million tons in Q3, a significant increase of 59.77% quarter-on-quarter [7] Pricing and Cost Analysis - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 509.31 yuan per ton, down 24.72% year-on-year, while the unit cost for self-produced coal was 253.83 yuan per ton, a decrease of 13.30% [7] - The unit gross profit for self-produced coal was 255.48 yuan per ton, down 33.42% year-on-year, indicating a decline in profitability despite lower costs [7] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 24 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.476 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.74 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.59 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - Despite a decline in production and sales in Q3, the company managed to achieve profit growth, and the elasticity of coal prices is expected to be more pronounced in Q4 [2][3]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.065 billion yuan, 2.468 billion yuan, and 2.717 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12.3X, 10.3X, and 9.3X respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 9.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.99%, and a net profit of 1.277 billion yuan, down 40.65% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.360 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.85% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.13%, with a net profit of 401 million yuan, down 43.94% year-on-year but up 10.08% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The coal production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 26.19 million tons, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 20.86 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year [7]. - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters of 2025 was 437 yuan/ton, down 60.6 yuan/ton year-on-year [7]. - The cost of coal sales for the first three quarters of 2025 was 271 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 166 yuan/ton, down 65.5 yuan/ton year-on-year [7].

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing a rebound after a decline, with the coal ETF (515220) dropping over 2% before quickly recovering to nearly a 1% increase during trading [1] - Domestic coal production growth is gradually slowing due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, while import volumes are down year-on-year [1] - The third quarter is expected to show a significant improvement in coal industry performance, driven by tight supply and demand dynamics, with average coal prices improving on a month-on-month basis [1] Group 2 - The coal ETF (515220) has seen a substantial inflow of capital, with its share increasing by over 350% this year, bringing its total size to over 13.5 billion yuan [2] - The combination of strong fundamentals and capital inflows, along with the high dividend yield of the coal sector, enhances the investment value of the coal ETF (515220) [2] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the coal ETF (515220), which is the only coal ETF available in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Australia reported a significant decline in coal prices and production due to strong supply and adverse weather conditions, impacting its financial performance for the third quarter of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Yancoal Australia's average coal price for Q3 2025 decreased by 17.6% year-on-year to AUD 140 per ton, with thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices falling by 17.2% and 24.7% to AUD 130 and AUD 195 per ton, respectively [1] - The company's estimated revenue for Q3 2025 is approximately AUD 1.48 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30% [2] - The company’s production volume decreased by 9% year-on-year due to rainfall, while sales volume increased by 3% as earlier shipment delays were resolved [2] Group 2: Market Outlook - The average selling price decline aligns with market trends, leading to a downward revision of Yancoal Australia's earnings forecasts for FY 2025 to FY 2027 by 54%, 49%, and 40%, respectively [2] - Despite the weak coal prices, the company maintains a robust balance sheet and a consistent dividend policy, leading to a "buy" rating from analysts [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal's production declined due to rainfall, while sales volume increased due to improved shipping delays, leading to a significant drop in average selling prices (ASP) for both thermal and metallurgical coal [1][2][3] Production and Sales - Attributable production volume decreased by 9% YoY to 9.3 million tonnes in 3Q25, while attributable sales volume increased by 3% YoY, with thermal coal remaining flat and metallurgical coal rising by 14% YoY [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, total attributable production grew by 4% YoY to 28.2 million tonnes, representing 72-80% of Yancoal's full-year guidance of 35-39 million tonnes [2] Average Selling Price (ASP) - Thermal coal ASP fell by 17% YoY to A$130 per tonne in 3Q25, while metallurgical coal ASP dropped by 25% YoY to A$195 per tonne, both within the market price ranges [3] Financial Performance - Estimated revenue for Yancoal in 3Q25 is approximately A$1.48 billion, reflecting a 17% YoY decline but a 30% QoQ increase [1] - Earnings forecasts for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E have been revised down by 54%, 49%, and 40% respectively, primarily due to lower ASP assumptions, although there is a slight increase in volume forecast due to a 3.75% increase in equity interest in Moolarben mines [1] Cash Position and Valuation - As of September 2025, Yancoal had a gross cash position of A$1.8 billion, representing approximately 24% of the current market capitalization [3] - The net present value (NPV)-based target price has been revised down by about 9% to HK$31 from HK$34, reflecting the new earnings forecast and the rollover of the valuation base to 2026E [1] Guidance and Costs - Full-year guidance remains unchanged with attributable saleable production expected to be between 35-39 million tonnes, operating cash costs projected at A$89-97 per tonne, and capital expenditures estimated at A$750-900 million [4]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, leading to improved coal prices in Q3, although year-on-year performance is expected to remain negative due to high base effects from the previous year [3]. Supply Side - Domestic coal production growth is gradually slowing due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with coal imports continuing to decline, showing a 23% year-on-year drop in September and an 11.1% cumulative decline from January to September [1]. - Safety regulations and overproduction checks are expected to continue constraining coal production, making large-scale production increases unlikely [5]. Demand Side - In July and August, total electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, with hydropower generation experiencing negative growth from April to August, leading to increased demand for coal-fired power generation [2]. Price and Performance Outlook - The coal market is expected to see a seasonal demand surge in Q4, with coal prices likely to rise due to potential higher-than-expected demand and cold winter forecasts [4]. - The profitability outlook for the coal sector is improving, with a high dividend yield of 4.99% for the CSI Coal Index as of October 15, attracting investment amid rising market risk aversion [5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the only coal ETF in the market (515220), as both fundamental and financial conditions may resonate positively [6].

Core Insights - The overall performance of the power industry is showing positive trends, with many thermal and hydropower companies experiencing significant profit increases, with net profits nearly doubling year-on-year [2] Group 1: Thermal Power Companies - Jiantou Energy (000600.SZ) expects a 231.75% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters, amounting to approximately 1.583 billion yuan [3][4] - Suihengyun A (000531.SZ) anticipates a net profit increase of 87.83% to 180.38%, with expected profits between 345 million and 515 million yuan [4][5] - The rise in profits for these companies is attributed to a decrease in coal prices, which has lowered operational costs for thermal power generation [4][5] Group 2: Hydropower Companies - Xichang Power (600505.SH) projects a net profit increase of approximately 150.51% year-on-year, with expected profits around 12.4 million yuan [7] - Qianyuan Power (002039.SZ) expects a net profit increase of 70% to 100%, with profits estimated between 451 million and 530 million yuan [7] - The performance improvement for hydropower companies is driven by increased water inflow and effective cost management, leading to higher sales and reduced financial expenses [7][8] Group 3: New Energy Companies - Zhonglv Electric (000537.SZ) reported a 95.41% increase in power generation but a decline in net profit by 0.44% to 23.35%, attributed to factors like limited power generation from existing projects and falling electricity prices [2][3] - The company is shifting its strategy from solar to wind energy while maintaining some solar projects, aiming for a capital return rate of 7% for new investments [3]

Core Insights - Domestic thermal coal prices increased month-on-month, while international offshore prices for thermal coal from Australia, South Africa, and Europe decreased [2][4] - Coal inventory at three major ports decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply [3][5] - Daily coal consumption by the six major power generation groups declined month-on-month and year-on-year, reflecting reduced demand [3][5] Inventory and Consumption - As of September 29, total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian ports was 12.188 million tons, down 2.137 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 17.32%, and down 2.368 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 18.84% [3] - Daily average coal consumption by the six major power generation groups was 839,800 tons, down 105,400 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 11.15%, and down 24,800 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 2.87% [3] Price Movements - As of September 30, the price of Shanxi mixed 5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 701.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 9 RMB/ton month-on-month, a rise of 1.30% [2] - International thermal coal prices showed a downward trend: Newcastle port price was $103.30/ton, down $6.40/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 5.83%; South Africa's Richards Bay price was $82.20/ton, down $6.60/ton, a decrease of 7.43%; and European DES ARA price was $91.30/ton, down $8.00/ton, a decrease of 8.06% [2] Production Trends - In August, coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed results: Shaanxi produced 21.119 million tons, up 360,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 0.67%, and up 467,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.26%; Shanxi produced 46.328 million tons, down 707,400 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 13.25%, but up 986,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.17%; Inner Mongolia produced 18.214 million tons, down 33,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 0.18%, but up 378,000 tons month-on-month, an increase of 2.12% [2]