Report Summary Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamental situation has no new driving forces, and it is waiting for a pullback [1]. - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortages in the fourth quarter has暂缓, and it is in a range - bound consolidation [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change, and night - trading was 9,488 yuan/ton with a 0.68% change; soybean oil's day - trading was 8,536 yuan/ton (0.00% change) and night - trading was 8,402 yuan/ton (- 1.57% change); rapeseed oil's day - trading was 9,941 yuan/ton (- 0.57% change) and night - trading was 9,810 yuan/ton (- 1.32% change); Malaysian palm oil's day - trading was 4,470 ringgit/ton (- 0.51% change) and night - trading was 4,451 ringgit/ton (- 0.43% change); CBOT soybean oil was 53.46 cents/pound (- 2.57% change) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 29,423 lots (- 7,102 change) and open interest was 31,104 lots (- 11,004 change); soybean oil's trading volume was 25,058 lots (- 10,177 change) and open interest was 37,839 lots (- 14,776 change); rapeseed oil's trading volume was 12,749 lots (- 1,539 change) and open interest was 18,022 lots (- 6,367 change) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,470 yuan/ton (- 150 change); first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,850 yuan/ton (+ 130 change); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,950 yuan/ton (+ 40 change); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,110 dollars/ton (- 5 change) [2]. - **Basis**: Palm oil in Guangdong was 46 yuan/ton; soybean oil in Guangdong was 314 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 321 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 1,044 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 76 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 80 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 120 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [3]. - **Tax Exemption in Malaysia**: Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax (SST). Currently, these two products face a 5% special tax [5]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Tariff**: The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from the 19% tariff, but the final agreement has no set schedule [5]. - **Indian Vegetable Oil Tax**: The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers' Association (IVPA) urges the government to cancel the tax credit refund restrictions implemented since July 2022 [6]. - **Pakistani Soybean Purchase**: Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans from US exporters, with a total value of about 500 million dollars [6]. - **Brazilian Soybean Regulations**: A Brazilian federal judge has temporarily suspended a decision by the country's antitrust regulator regarding the "Amazon soybean ban" [7]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.13 million tons [7]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit in Brazil**: In Mato Grosso from August 18 - 22, the soybean crushing profit was 387.05 reais/ton [7]. - **EU Oil Imports**: As of August 24, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 350,000 tons, soybeans were 1.96 million tons, and rapeseed was 390,000 tons, all lower than last year [8]. - **Russian Sunflower Oil Tax**: Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Views - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 8.94 million tons, and its soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.13 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 2.33 million tons [1]. - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month, with a 3.26% drop in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.40% increase in oil extraction rate [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil's soybean export estimate for August is 8.9 million tons [1]. - Brazil's soybean meal export estimate for August is 2.13 million tons [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 25, 2025 decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products (including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from August 20 - 26, 2025 are presented in a table [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The second round of price increase for coke has been implemented, and the market is oscillating with an upward trend; for coking coal, the expected constraints on supply policies are strengthening, and the market is also oscillating with an upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of JM2509 (coking coal) was 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%; the closing price of J2509 (coke) was 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 94.5 yuan/ton or 5.90% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of JM2509 was 1,636,160 lots, with an open interest of 442,089 lots, a decrease of 62,782 lots; the trading volume of J2509 was 58,919 lots, with an open interest of 40,527 lots, a decrease of 3,388 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Linfen low - sulfur primary coking coal increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1320 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal increased by 21 yuan/ton to 1029 yuan/ton; the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke price index increased by 100 yuan/ton to 1350 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2509 for different types of coking coal and J2509 for different types of coke showed various changes, and the spreads between different contract months (JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601) also changed [2]. 3.2 Price and Position Status - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The ex - warehouse prices of Shanxi primary coking coal at Jingtang Port, Australian primary coking coal at Qingdao Port, Lianyungang Port, Rizhao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1420 yuan/ton, 1425 yuan/ton, 1425 yuan/ton, 1310 yuan/ton, and 1415 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **July 22 Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was 1100 yuan/ton (+50); the price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 1018 yuan/ton (+27); the price of S1.3 G75 primary coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 998 yuan/ton (+26) [3]. - **Position Status**: On July 22, from the position of the top 20 members of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions decreased by 26,180 lots, and short positions decreased by 42,062 lots; for the coke J2509 contract, long positions decreased by 2,834 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,295 lots [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 1, and that of coking coal is also 1 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures' main price fluctuated. The Si2509 closed at 8,685 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The trading volume was 1,111,567 lots, and the open interest was 379,848 lots, with a net decrease of 16,805 lots. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest production area offset the reduction of production by large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand has improved marginally, with a slight increase in the production schedule of polysilicon in July and stable demand for organic silicon. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The resistance range is 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton based on the average cost and the warehouse receipt cancellation range, but the spot price has been continuously firm, so it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The Si2509 closed at 8,685 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.91%. The trading volume was 1,111,567 lots, and the open interest was 379,848 lots, with a net decrease of 16,805 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553 grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421 grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,050 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest production area offset the reduction of production by large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand has improved marginally, with a slight increase in the production schedule of polysilicon in July and stable demand for organic silicon. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The resistance range is 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton based on the average cost and the warehouse receipt cancellation range, but the spot price has been continuously firm, so it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4] 3.4 Market News - On July 17, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,215 lots, with a net decrease of 43 lots compared to the previous trading day. In the second week of July, the average price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was 45,500 yuan, and the average price of N - type dense material was 44,000 yuan. In the second week of July, the national comprehensive price of silicon reported by the Silicon Industry Branch was 8,851 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 553 grade was 8,602 yuan/ton, 441 grade was 8,852 yuan/ton, and 421 grade was 9,425 yuan/ton, with increases of 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 128 yuan/ton respectively. The comprehensive prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 8,749 yuan/ton, 9,734 yuan/ton, and 9,600 yuan/ton. The FOB price remained stable overall [5]

Industry Overview Upstream - International oil prices have rebounded, while the PTA price has declined [2] Midstream - The polyester operating rate has decreased, and the coal consumption of power plants has seasonally declined to a three-year low [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities have seasonally declined to a nearly three-year low, while the number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [3] Key Events Production Industry - From January to June, the production and sales of the automotive market exceeded 15 million units, with a year-on-year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44.3% of the total new vehicle sales [1] Service Industry - The agreement on visa exemption between the Chinese government and the Malaysian government will take effect on July 17, 2025. Eligible passport holders can enter, exit, or transit the other country without a visa for up to 30 days per visit and 90 days within 180 days [1] Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The industry credit spreads of various sectors, including agriculture, mining, and chemicals, have shown different trends from last year to this week, with some sectors experiencing significant declines [48] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various commodities, such as corn, eggs, and crude oil, have shown different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the futures price is under pressure due to policy disturbances, but the slow - bull market may continue. The C2509 contract has a support level of 2250 and a pressure level of 2400. It's advisable to buy on dips as the fundamentals are acceptable despite increased downward pressure and policy uncertainties [76]. - For corn starch, the price is cost - driven. The futures price is expected to move in the range of 2600 - 2800 for the CS2509 contract, with cost providing support and weak demand capping the upside [126]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Corn - CBOT corn prices stopped falling and entered a sideways pattern. As of July 7, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 403.75 cents per bushel, down 5.25 cents per bushel week - on - week. The net long position of managed funds continued to decline, reaching - 206,463 contracts as of July 1, a decrease of 24,181 contracts week - on - week [6]. - Domestic corn futures prices were weak, and open interest decreased. As of July 7, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2326 yuan per ton, down 2.19% week - on - week; open interest was 1,563,264 contracts, down 2.36% week - on - week. Bullish factors included low imports, nearly exhausted grassroots grain stocks, high purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises, and the bottom - support from wheat's minimum purchase price. Bearish factors were the launch of imported corn auctions and the high cost - effectiveness of wheat for feed use [12]. - Corn registered warehouse receipts remained high and stable, reaching 203,732 contracts as of July 7, significantly higher than in previous years. Futures trading volume declined, with an average daily trading volume of 625,400 contracts last week [14]. - The term structure of corn futures showed a pattern of near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong. Compared with the previous two weeks, futures prices generally declined, with the 09 contract having a relatively large decline. The C09 - C11 spread continued to weaken, falling out of the previous trading range, reaching 43 yuan per ton as of July 7, a decrease of 19 yuan per ton week - on - week. Market expectations turned pessimistic, and corn prices were under downward pressure in the third quarter [18]. - Corn spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend. As of July 7, the national average corn spot price was 2432.55 yuan per ton, up 1.77% week - on - week. The futures - spot relationship deviated, with the market shifting to a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and the basis strengthened significantly, reaching 106.55 yuan per ton as of July 7, an increase of 73.26 yuan per ton week - on - week [22]. Corn Starch - Last week, corn starch futures prices fluctuated weakly, and open interest decreased. As of July 7, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2680 yuan per ton, down 1.94% week - on - week; open interest was 278,828 contracts, up 17.52% week - on - week [82]. - Corn starch registered warehouse receipts remained stable at 22,922 contracts, a decrease of 900 contracts week - on - week. Futures trading volume declined, with an average daily trading volume of 131,800 contracts last week, down 14.89% week - on - week [85]. - As of July 7, the national average price of Grade - 1 corn starch was 2893 yuan per ton, up 0.1% week - on - week; the basis was 213 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan per ton week - on - week [88]. - From the term structure, all corn starch contracts declined compared with last week, with similar decline rates, showing a near - strong, mid - weak, and far - strong pattern. The spread between corn starch and corn futures contracts fluctuated within a narrow range. As of July 7, the spread of the 09 contract was 354 yuan per ton, basically unchanged from last week [94]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis Corn - USDA's June 2025/26 balance sheet lowered the beginning inventory by 1 million tons, with no adjustments to other items. Huiyiwang's May balance sheet raised the 2024 corn output by 5.6 million tons and the 2025 output by 6.47 million tons, resulting in a continued increase in ending inventory [29]. - The growth progress of US corn was normal, and the good - to - excellent rate was high. As of the week of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year [30]. - Corn imports remained at a low level. Since the second half of last year, with the tightening of import policies, China's corn imports have decreased significantly compared with previous years. In May this year, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%; cumulative imports in 2025 were 630,000 tons, a decrease of 93.8% compared with the same period last year [35]. - The number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing plants in the morning rebounded from a low level. Due to the launch of imported corn auctions and the recent decline in futures prices, grain traders' expectations for the future weakened, and their enthusiasm for selling increased. The weekly average number of remaining vehicles last week was 381 vehicles per day, a week - on - week increase of 12.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.64% [36]. - Imported corn auctions were launched, resulting in a decrease in the two - way trading activity, with sales activity still acceptable but procurement completely stagnant, and corn remained in a net rotation - out state. Since September last year, the net procurement volume has been 1.72 million tons [39]. - Port corn inventories decreased seasonally. As of June 27, 2025, the inventory at the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% from the previous week; the domestic trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 8.12% from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory at Guangdong Port was 3,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [41]. - Deep - processing enterprises' corn inventories began to decline again, and feed enterprises' corn inventories continued to decline slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises was 435,400 tons, a decrease of 4.66% from June 27; the available days of feed enterprises' corn inventory were 31.96 days, a decrease of 1.93% from June 27 [45]. - Deep - processing enterprises' corn consumption decreased slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the corn consumption of major deep - processing enterprises was 104,120 tons, a decrease of 0.90% from June 27; the consumption of 149 deep - processing enterprises was 117,630 tons, a decrease of 1.08% from June 27 [48]. - In May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 2.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Among them, the output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased by 7.3% and 8.1% year - on - year respectively, while the output of concentrated feed decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [54]. - In May, the sales volume of pig feed continued to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a relatively large increase [55]. - Pig prices fluctuated upward, but the pig - raising profit was limited. As of July 4, 2025, the average price of the top - three grades of white - striped pork was 19.2 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 1.54%; the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 139 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 84.27% [57]. - The pig - to - grain ratio stopped falling and rebounded. As of July 7, 2025, the Steel Union's pig - to - grain ratio was 6.10, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%; the NDRC's pig - to - grain ratio was 6.21, a week - on - week increase of 1.31% [61]. - Wheat prices remained stable, and the wheat - corn price spread remained low, leading to an increase in the substitution ratio of wheat for feed use. As of July 7, 2025, the wheat spot price was 2442 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%; the wheat - corn price spread was 0, a year - on - year decrease of 87.04% [64]. Corn Starch - The spot price spread between corn starch and corn remained stable. As of July 7, 2025, the spread in Suihua, Heilongjiang was 440 yuan per ton, unchanged from June 30; the spread in Weifang, Shandong was 460 yuan per ton, unchanged from June 30 [99]. - Corn starch enterprises' operating rates and output remained stable. As of July 4, 2025, the operating rate of corn starch enterprises was 51.20%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%; the output was 264,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11% [102]. - Corn starch enterprises' losses continued to narrow. As of July 7, 2025, the profit of corn starch enterprises in Hebei was 13 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan from June 30; the profit in Heilongjiang was - 111 yuan per ton, an increase of 9 yuan from June 30 [109]. - Corn starch inventories increased slightly. As of July 4, 2025, the total inventory of major starch enterprises nationwide was 1.313 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%; the inventory in Heilongjiang was 613,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.82% [113]. - The demand for corn starch decreased significantly. As of July 4, 2025, the提货 volume of major corn starch enterprises was 260,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00%; the operating rate of F55 fructose syrup was 55.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.67% [119]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook Corn - As of July 5, the harvesting rate of Brazil's first - season corn was 97.2%, up from 95.4% last week; the harvesting rate of the second - season corn was 27.7%, up from 17% last week [73]. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,491,062 tons, up from 1,380,943 tons the previous week. So far this crop year, the cumulative US corn export inspection volume was 56,446,111 tons, compared with 43,523,109 tons in the same period of the previous year [73]. - The USDA announced that 13，500 tons of corn had been sold to Mexico, with 2,900 tons scheduled for delivery in the 2024/2025 market year and 10,600 tons in the 2025/2026 market year [73]. - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil shipped a total of 369,500 tons of corn, with an average daily shipping volume of 18,500 tons per day, a decrease of 56.57% compared with July last year [73]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, CBOT corn futures rose, with the benchmark contract up 2.3%, rebounding from an eight - and - a - half - month low last week [73]. - Hebei launched the minimum purchase price for wheat, and the成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased. On July 2, 2025, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced the launch of the 2025 wheat minimum purchase price implementation plan in Hebei. The成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased from 97% on July 1 to 54% on July 8 [75]. - It is expected that the slow - bull market will continue. Although the recent corn futures prices have weakened and fallen below the previous support level, while the spot prices have risen slightly but may have reached a peak. The basis has strengthened significantly. Considering the bullish and bearish factors, the C2509 contract is expected to have a support level of 2250 and a pressure level of 2400 [76]. Corn Starch - Due to weak downstream demand, the industry operating rate remained low. It is expected that the operating rate in the Northeast region will decrease significantly next week. From July 3 - 9, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from last week; the operating rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% from last week [125]. - The domestic corn starch spot market price continued to be strong, with fewer low - end transactions. Due to the low supply of raw corn and increasing costs, the cost side strongly supported the price. However, due to weak downstream demand, high - price sales were difficult, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain stable at a high level [125]. - Corn starch futures prices fluctuated weakly, the spot price was stable, enterprises' losses continued to narrow, the operating rate was low, downstream demand was insufficient, and inventories increased slightly. The corn starch market is cost - driven and generally follows the corn market. The CS2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2600 - 2800 [125][126].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for coke is broad - range fluctuations [1] - The investment rating for coking coal is leading by expectation and broad - range fluctuations [2] Group 2: Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamental data, price, and position information of coking coal and coke, including futures prices, spot prices, basis, and spreads, to assist in understanding the market trends of these two commodities [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: JM2509 closed at 891 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (1.02%); J2509 closed at 1424.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.14%). JM2509 had a trading volume of 723,095 lots and a position of 544,987 lots, with a decrease of 4,404 lots; J2509 had a trading volume of 16,389 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: There were no changes in most spot prices of coking coal and coke, but some showed minor fluctuations. For example, the price of Fengjing converted to RMB decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the cost of Meng3 warehouse receipt increased by 21 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke also showed certain changes. For instance, the basis of JM2509 for Meng5 decreased by 52.0 yuan/ton, and the basis of J2509 for Shanxi quasi - first arrival price decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton [2] Price and Position - **Northern Port Coking Coal Quotes**: The ex - warehouse prices of coking coal in northern ports were as follows: 1250 yuan/ton for Shanxi coking coal in Jingtang Port, 1215 yuan/ton for Australian coking coal in Qingdao Port, 1215 yuan/ton in Lianyungang Port, 1130 yuan/ton in Rizhao Port, and 1205 yuan/ton in Tianjin Port [2] - **July 8th Fenwei CCI Metallurgical Coal Index**: The price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu increased by 15 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Meng5) in Shaheyi increased by 4 yuan/ton; the price of S1.3 G75 coking coal (Meng3) in Shaheyi increased by 21 yuan/ton [3] - **Position Situation**: On July 8th, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 4,491 lots, and the short positions decreased by 5,293 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 180 lots, and the short positions decreased by 59 lots [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [4]

2025 年 7 月 3 日 品 研 究 焦炭：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 焦煤：反内卷信号发酵，震荡偏强 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 漆跌(元/吨) | 流跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 843.5 | 29 | 3.56% | | | | J2509 | 1442 | 53.5 | 3. 85% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1189983 | 529227 | -35195 | | | | J2509 | 30166 | 49728 | 162 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1180 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1170 | 涨跌(元/吨) 10 | | | 焦煤 | 全泉蒙5精煤自提价 吕梁低硫主焦 | 934 1128 | 934 1113 | 0 15 | | | | ...

Report Information - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.66%. The trading volume was 1,087,621 lots, and the open interest was 321,342 lots, a net increase of 14,698 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The improvement in fundamentals was limited. In the third week of June, the industrial silicon output was 76,600 tons, increasing for four consecutive weeks, and the monthly output exceeded 320,000 tons. Domestic demand remained at 260,000 tons, and monthly exports remained at 50,000 tons. Recently, the expectation of polysilicon production cuts was disappointed, bringing a marginal increase in demand. The futures warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled and出库, dropping to 266,300 tons [4]. - The spot price remained stable, and the sentiment in the commodity market improved. The technical breakthrough and production cut news resonated, stimulating a sharp intraday rise in industrial silicon. However, the production cuts had not been implemented, and the high inventory was digested slowly. The improvement in fundamentals lagged significantly behind the price rebound. The upward resistance on the disk increased marginally, and the fluctuations intensified. It was recommended to operate cautiously with a slight bullish bias [4]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.66%. The trading volume was 1,087,621 lots, and the open interest was 321,342 lots, a net increase of 14,698 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was also 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 8,200 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The improvement in fundamentals was limited. The production increased for four consecutive weeks, and the high inventory was digested slowly. The improvement in fundamentals lagged behind the price rebound. The upward resistance on the disk increased, and the fluctuations intensified. It was recommended to operate cautiously with a slight bullish bias [4]. 2. Market News - On June 26, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 53,234 lots, a net decrease of 29 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, the export volume of industrial silicon in May 2025 was 53,840 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.48% [5].

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 6月20日 | 张跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月23日 | 6月23日 | 胀跌 | 单位 | 张跌幅 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -7.2% | 77.01 | -5.53 | POY150/48价格 | 60 | 布伦特原油(8月) | 71.48 | 7225 | 7165 | 0.8% | 美元/桶 | -7.2% | 50 | WTI原油(8月) | 68.51 | 73.84 | -5.33 | FDY150/96价格 | 7515 | 0.7% | 7465 | | | 40 | CFR日本石脑油 | 646 | -4 | -0.6% | D ...