"我国经济稳中有升，在财政收入和税收收入的增长层面有直接体现。"中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政 研究室主任、研究员何代欣认为，各地在新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新等政策的持续推动下，经 过一系列动态调整与优化，扩大内需政策成效已经逐步显现，消费潜力得到有效释放，带动了财政收入和税 收收入增长，为经济发展注入了强劲动力。 从各地情况看，地方收入保持平稳，绝大多数地区收入持续增长。前三季度，地方一般公共预算本级收入同 比增长1.8%。从7月份开始，累计增幅已连续3个月保持在1.8%的水平。分地区看，31个省、自治区、直辖市 中，除受煤炭等部分大宗商品价格下行影响的个别地区外，其他27个地区保持正增长，比去年同期增加了6 个。 从财政收入质量来看，今年税收收入稳步增长，非税收入增幅回落，地方财政收入质量整体向好。其中，北 京市财政局数据显示，首都经济延续回升向好态势。前三季度，北京市一般公共预算收入完成5039.9亿元、 增长3.6%，完成年度预算的76%；北京市地方级税收收入完成4327.4亿元、增长5.5%，税收收入占一般公共 预算收入的85.9%。 江苏省前三季度一般公共预算收入较高，完成8026.5 ...

日本内阁府最新统计显示，日本今年第三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率下降1.8%，为自2024 年第一季度以来第二次负增长。分析认为，这一数据是美国政府自4月起加征汽车关税及实施所谓"对等 关税"所造成的负面影响的直接反映，出口产业尤其是汽车业受到的打击最为沉重。内阁府的中期经济 报告指出，美国关税措施对日本经济的负面影响仍在持续，加之物价上涨削弱消费，日本政府已将2025 财年的经济增长预期从1.2%下调至0.7%。 为解决当前日本面临的经济困境，日本政府于11月21日批准了总额21.3万亿日元的经济刺激计划，其中 17.7万亿日元通过补充预算安排，2.7万亿日元来自减税。支出划分为"生活安全保障与物价对策"11.7万 亿日元、"危机管理与成长投资"7.2万亿日元以及"强化防卫与外交"1.7万亿日元，内容涵盖汽油和柴油 税下调、扩大能源补贴、向未满18岁儿童发放2万日元补贴及提高所得税起征点等。然而经济界普遍认 为，日本政府大规模经济刺激计划，将引发市场对日本财政状况和信用情况的担忧，不仅难以实现预期 效果，还可能进一步伤害日本经济。 自日本高市早苗政府启动以来，日本经济形势持续恶化。首先是美国关税措施 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. Monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing, and the bullish factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, it is difficult for the easing to materialize in the short term, and it is unlikely for the bond market to start a new round of rapid upward movement. It is still in the stage of oscillating and accumulating energy. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of laying out at low levels. In the short term, it is currently in a data vacuum period, and with important meetings in December approaching, the market is highly cautious. The bond market may show a slight recovery, mainly depending on the capital situation and risk - aversion sentiment. After the tax payment period this week, the capital situation may further ease, and the central bank's bond - buying may boost market sentiment. Coupled with the adjustment of risk assets, it is expected to boost risk - aversion sentiment [11][12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: After the tax payment period, the capital situation has loosened. With the short - term news being calm, the market may be waiting for policy guidance from the December meetings. Treasury bond futures showed narrow - range fluctuations across the board and closed slightly higher [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities showed narrow - range fluctuations. By 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.813%, up 0.05bp [9] - **Funding Market**: After the impact of the tax payment period ended, the inter - bank capital situation loosened. There were 283 billion yuan of maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 538.7 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 255.7 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index dropped significantly, indicating a further alleviation of capital pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.32%, the 7 - day rate rose 2.96bp to 1.47%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.61% - 1.62% [10] 3.2 Industry News - **Domestic News**: The issuance of treasury bonds has entered a dense period. On November 24, the Ministry of Finance tendered and issued 97 billion yuan of book - entry coupon - bearing treasury bonds and 60 billion yuan of book - entry discounted treasury bonds. On November 26, two short - term treasury bonds will be issued. The Ministry of Finance will continue to pre - issue the new local government debt quota for 2026. As of November 23, the total scale of new special bonds issued by local governments this year has reached approximately 4.2315 trillion yuan, and the issuance progress of new special bonds has reached 96% [13] - **International News**: Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled interest rate cuts, and the market's bet on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has exceeded 50%. The cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Hayasuna Sanae has approved the largest - scale additional expenditure since the pandemic, with a general account expenditure of 17.7 trillion yen (112 billion US dollars) and a total stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures, including trading data such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume of different contracts on November 24, as well as information on the spread between main contracts of treasury bond futures across different maturities and varieties [6] - **Money Market**: The report mentions the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the average Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and the average FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve [35]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On November 21, the liquidity situation continued to ease, but market sentiment remained weak, leading to a volatile adjustment in the bond market. The convertible bond market followed the decline of the equity market, with most convertible bond indices and individual bonds falling. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies mostly decreased as well [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - Starting from next June, savings bonds (electronic) will be included in the scope of personal pension products [3]. - From January to October this year, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises in China increased by 14.7% year - on - year, while the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [3]. - The issuance of government bonds has entered a dense period, which is an important manifestation of the continuous implementation of proactive fiscal policies [3]. - **International News** - On November 21 local time, New York Fed President John Williams said there is room for further interest rate cuts in the near term [4]. - The preliminary value of the U.S. Markit Composite PMI in November reached the fastest growth in four months, with the service industry accelerating and the manufacturing industry slowing down [5]. - **Commodities** - On November 21, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, while international natural gas prices turned up [6]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations** - On November 21, the central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 162.2 billion yuan [8]. - **Funding Rates** - Due to the end of the tax period and continuous net injections by the central bank, the liquidity situation continued to ease on November 21. Key funding rates such as DR001 and DR007 declined [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yields** - On November 21, despite the stock market decline, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted due to weak market sentiment. Yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased slightly [12]. - **Bond Tendering** - On November 21, the 3 - year "25进出清发007(增发15)" was tendered, with a issuance scale of 2 billion yuan and a winning yield of 1.6542% [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On November 21, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0中骏02", deviated by more than 10%, rising by over 71% [13]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Multiple companies announced important events, including debt restructuring, bond exchange offers, regulatory warnings, and cancellations of bond issuances [14][15]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On November 21, the three major A - share indices fell, and the convertible bond market also declined. Most convertible bond indices and individual bonds fell, with a decrease in trading volume [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On November 24, "卓镁转债" will be listed. Multiple convertible bonds announced price adjustments, potential redemptions, etc. on November 21 [18][19]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On November 21, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined, and the yield spreads between different maturities changed [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On November 21, except for the 10 - year government bond yield in the UK, which increased, yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally declined [23]. - **Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on November 21, prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed, with some rising and some falling [25].

日本市场的行情氛围从11月开始发生了显著变化，股市下跌、债券下跌和日元下跌这一"股债汇三杀"变 得明显。对高市积极财政的负面影响的警惕正在提高…… 日本市场的行情氛围从11月开始发生了显著变化。上周股市下跌、债券下跌（长期利率上 升）和日元下跌这一"股债汇三杀"变得明显。从押注日本首相高市早苗的积极财政和货币宽 松政策运作的"高市交易"来看，对其负面影响的警惕正在提高。 上周日经平均指数下跌3%，日元兑美元汇率贬值2%，长期利率涨幅达到0.07%。与10月末 相比，日经平均指数下跌7%，日元贬值2%，长期利率上升幅度为0.12%，转为股债汇三 杀。 原因存在于日美双方。在美国，高官相继作出对降息持消极态度的发言，美国联邦储备委员 会（FRB）12月降息的预期出现降温。这成为日本利率上升和美元兑日元升值的主要原 因。"认为股市下跌时降息预期成为缓冲的安心感消失"（大和证券的首席经济学家末广 彻），这也导致了日美股市的下跌。 日本的因素是政策。起初日本股市对高市的财政扩张路线给予积极解读，但随着外汇和债券 市场的警惕日益提高，股票市场也开始意识到消极的一面。日本政府11月21日在内阁会议上 敲定了21.3万亿日元 ...

从更宏观的视角审视，2025年国债发行规模显著扩容，成为积极财政政策的核心抓手。今年预算安排的 1.3万亿元超长期特别国债已于10月14日全部发行完毕，主要投向"两重"建设和"两新"领域，其中5000 亿元用于消费品以旧换新和设备更新。与此同时，一般国债发行同样提速，上半年利率债发行规模达 16.9万亿元，国债净融资接近3.4万亿元，约为2024年同期的两倍。 从本次发行的具体要素来看，970亿元的3年期附息国债采用修正的多重价格招标方式，标的为利率，自 11月25日起计息，每年付息一次，将于2028年11月25日偿还本金并支付最后一次利息。招标结束后至11 月25日进行分销，11月27日起正式上市交易。而600亿元的182天贴现国债同样采用修正的多重价格招标 方式，但标的为价格，以低于票面金额的价格贴现发行，将于2026年5月26日按面值偿还。两只国债均 进行甲类成员追加投标，显示出财政部对市场需求的积极回应。 值得关注的是，本次发行是2025年第四季度国债发行计划的重要组成部分。根据财政部9月底公布的安 排，四季度涵盖关键期限国债、短期国债、超长期一般国债、储蓄国债及超长期特别国债等多个品种。 11月的发 ...

【内容摘要】11月21日，资金面继续转松，主要回购利率延续下行；市场情绪仍弱，债市震荡调整；转 债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国 债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【储蓄国债（电子式）将纳入个人养老金产品范围】财政部、央行11月21日发布《关于储蓄国债（电子 式）纳入个人养老金产品范围有关事宜的通知》，明确自明年6月起，个人养老金储蓄国债（电子式） 业务开办机构开办个人养老金储蓄国债（电子式）业务，即为在本机构开立个人养老金资金账户的养老 金投资者，提供购买储蓄国债（电子式）的相关服务。 【前10月全国新设外商投资企业增长14.7%】11月21日，商务部数据显示，今年前10个月，全国新设立 外商投资企业53782家，同比增长14.7%；实际使用外资金额6219.3亿元人民币，同比下降10.3%。 【国债密集发行积极财政政策持续发力】据中国证券报，当前，国债发行进入密集期。11月24日，财政 部招标发行970亿元记账式附息国债和600亿元记账式贴现国债。11月26日，还有2只短期国债将发行。 专家表示，国债密集发行是积极财政政策持续发力 ...

Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 31 to analyze the current economic situation and outline economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need to combine financial risk prevention with better service to the real economy [1][5] - The meeting reiterated the commitment to "de-leveraging" while ensuring the pace and intensity are appropriate to avoid harming the real economy [1][5] Economic Policy - The meeting concluded that major macroeconomic indicators are within a reasonable range, with ongoing structural optimization and initial success in financial risk prevention [2] - It was emphasized that fiscal policy should play a larger role in expanding domestic demand and structural adjustments, while monetary policy should remain prudent and flexible [2][4] Financial Stability - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining financial stability as part of six key economic and financial stability tasks, indicating a strong focus on "stable finance" [5] - Analysts noted that the current decline in social financing growth, particularly in off-balance-sheet trust and entrusted loans, poses a significant risk to the economy [5] Reform and Opening Up - The meeting called for continued reform and opening up, including significant measures to expand market access and promote the Belt and Road Initiative [6] - It was suggested that reforms should include enhancing direct financing, improving the fiscal and tax system, and accelerating state-owned enterprise reforms [6]

当前，国债发行进入密集期。11月24日，财政部招标发行970亿元记账式附息国债和600亿元记账式贴现国债。11月26日，还有2只短期国债将发行。专家表 示，国债密集发行是积极财政政策持续发力的重要体现。后续积极财政政策取向料延续，应用好用足特别国债、专项债等工具，加强国债资金监管考核，确 保政策效能充分释放，护航稳增长。 展望后市，德邦证券认为，预计债市短期震荡与长期宽松并存。央行三季度货币政策执行报告明确"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"，国债买卖操作常态化或为 长端利率提供"安全垫"；年末银行理财"冲规模"、保险资金"资产荒"背景下，利率债的配置价值或将有所提升。我们认为当前债市核心逻辑仍为"政策托底 +配置驱动"，短期震荡与长期宽松并存。 截至2025年11月24日 11:17，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.11%，最新价报107.4元。拉长时间看，截至2025年11月21日，30年国债ETF博时近1年累计上涨 3.34%。 流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手8.06%，成交15.28亿元。拉长时间看，截至11月21日，30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交33.95亿元。 资金面上，央行今日 ...

Group 1: Government Bonds and Fiscal Policy - The issuance of government bonds has entered a concentrated phase, with the Ministry of Finance auctioning 97 billion yuan of coupon bonds and 60 billion yuan of discount bonds on November 24, and two short-term bonds scheduled for November 26. This reflects the ongoing implementation of proactive fiscal policies [1] - Experts anticipate that the trend of active fiscal policy will continue, emphasizing the effective use of special bonds and project bonds, as well as strengthening the supervision and assessment of bond funds to ensure the full release of policy effectiveness [1] Group 2: Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy market in China is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating a strong growth trend in the industry [2] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - The trend of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) this year has focused on promoting strategic collaboration and enhancing industrial chains. As of November 23, 151 companies have disclosed M&A activities, significantly surpassing the same period last year, with deep M&A driven by industrial integration becoming mainstream [3] - Future M&A activities are expected to remain active, driven by leading enterprises and "chain masters" in the industry, with a focus on horizontal collaboration and vertical extension [3] Group 4: Stock Market and Fund Activity - In response to recent market volatility, over 60 companies in the Shanghai Stock Exchange have announced share buybacks and positive operational updates, signaling confidence from leading companies [4] - A total of 16 technology-themed funds were approved on November 21, indicating an influx of capital into the hard technology sector, despite discussions about potential overheating in the AI industry [5] - The A-share market has experienced adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points. However, the fundamental factors supporting the current market uptrend remain unchanged, suggesting potential opportunities for investors to position themselves for the upcoming spring market [6] Group 5: Fund Issuance and Performance - The new fund issuance in China has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the seventh consecutive year, with 1,340 new funds established by November 23, totaling 1,044.598 billion yuan [7] - Active equity products, particularly stock and mixed funds, have become the dominant force in the new fund market, contributing to over half of the new issuance scale [8] Group 6: ETF Investment Trends - Despite market corrections, over 700 billion yuan has flowed into ETFs as investors increase their positions in a declining market. Major ETFs have seen significant net inflows, indicating continued interest in the Chinese asset market [9] Group 7: Core Index Funds - More than 1,800 funds are now investing in A-share core indices, with significant performance and scale differentiation among different fund products. Core indices have shown substantial gains since the "9.24" market rally, with average increases exceeding 50% [10] Group 8: Securities Industry Trends - The securities industry has seen a net outflow of 6,872 personnel this year, although the rate of outflow has slowed compared to previous years. Conversely, the number of investment advisors has significantly increased [11] Group 9: Satellite IoT Business - The commercial trial of satellite IoT business has officially started, marking a transition from technology validation to large-scale commercialization, which is expected to inject new momentum into emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and the low-altitude economy [12] Group 10: Sustainable Forest Management - Positive progress has been reported in sustainable forest management trials, with significant improvements in forest quality and biodiversity, indicating effective management practices [13]