Economic Performance Overview - In October, the industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.16% month-on-month[1] - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408,914 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.7%[1] Investment and Consumption Trends - Historical data suggests that investment growth typically rebounds first during economic stabilization periods, as seen in 2008-09 and 2020-21[2] - Manufacturing investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop from -1.9% in September to -6.7% in October[3] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased from -4.6% in September to -8.9% in October, indicating a low level of infrastructure activity[3] Consumer Behavior Insights - The retail sales growth rate slightly declined to 2.9% in October, influenced by a high base from the previous year and the waning effects of the "old-for-new" policy[4] - The early "Double Eleven" shopping festival helped mitigate the decline in retail sales growth, which did not significantly worsen despite multiple pressures[4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - From January to October, real estate investment cumulative growth fell to -14.7%, down from -13.9% previously, reflecting weak demand and high base effects from last year[5] - The need for further policy support in the real estate sector is emphasized to balance supply and demand and promote high-quality development[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, and fluctuations in exports[6]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment, characterized by volatility and rapid shifts in investment hotspots, necessitates a focus on long-term stability rather than chasing fleeting trends [1] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The essence of investing in public funds is to achieve asset preservation and appreciation in the equity market, with a focus on smooth and steady returns [2] - A good investment experience is defined by minimizing significant and prolonged losses while allowing investors to hold their positions without the stress of timing the market [2] Group 2: Strategic Approach - The investment strategy is based on macroeconomic analysis, identifying undervalued opportunities from cyclical turning points rather than engaging in short-term trading [3] - The manager emphasizes the importance of asset turnover and trading volume to assess market sentiment and identify potential investment opportunities [3] Group 3: Dynamic Adjustment - The investment approach involves flexible adjustments to the portfolio in response to market style changes, reducing exposure to overvalued assets while increasing weight in undervalued ones [4] - The manager's patience in waiting for the right market conditions, as seen in the strategic positioning in brokerage stocks, highlights the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio [5] Group 4: Market Context - The recent fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index, which briefly surpassed 4000 points before retreating, illustrate the structural characteristics of the current market [6] - The focus on stability is crucial in a volatile market, with the aim of achieving lower overall drawdowns compared to the market average [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment emphasizes the need for stability in investment strategies, particularly as the Shanghai Composite Index approaches the 4000-point mark and experiences volatility [1][9]. Investor Experience - The essence of purchasing mutual funds is to achieve asset preservation and appreciation in the equity market, with a focus on smooth and steady returns while avoiding significant losses [3][9]. - A good investment experience is defined by two standards: minimizing large and prolonged losses, and alleviating the stress of market timing for investors [3][9]. Investment Strategy - The investment philosophy is based on macroeconomic research, focusing on identifying undervalued opportunities from cyclical turning points rather than chasing short-term trends [5][9]. - The manager has increased allocations in public utilities and transportation sectors in anticipation of counter-cyclical policies, while also monitoring "white horse stocks" that are closely tied to China's economic performance and interest rates [5][9]. Dynamic Adjustment - The investment approach involves flexible adjustments to the portfolio in response to market style changes, reducing exposure to high-volatility assets while increasing weight in undervalued assets with reversal potential [7][9]. - The manager's patience in waiting for market opportunities, such as in the brokerage sector, reflects a strategy of maintaining a balanced portfolio to withstand short-term pressures [7][9]. Long-term Perspective - Emphasizing the importance of time in investment management, the strategy focuses on managing risk from a volatility perspective rather than fixating on individual stock performance [8][9]. - The overall goal is to stabilize the portfolio's foundation to navigate through market fluctuations, allowing for a more secure investment journey for clients [9].

在波动市场中，"稳"是一种被低估的力量——国泰基金张容赫认为，它并非保守，而是主动管理，旨在 优化持有体验，助力投资行稳致远。 "宏观和市场判断是我们的核心，决定了我们的组合思路。" "我们的核心出发点，是希望持有人的投资体验能更好一些，尽量避免出现明显的、大幅的、持续时间 较长的亏损，使收益率曲线整体保持平稳向上的态势，从而为持有人带来更舒适的投资感受。" "无论市场如何变化，我们希望投资者都能安心地将资金配置于权益市场，无需为择时这类复杂的大类 资产判断而困扰。" 由国泰基金精心打造的系列基金对话节目《深夜食堂》，在这个深秋夜晚，为投资者带来一场关于投资 中"稳"力量的深度对话。 在信息爆炸、热点频换的当下市场中，"稳"往往被误读为保守或缺乏弹性。然而，在国泰基金基金经理 张容赫眼中，稳并非"不作为"，而是基于对经济周期与行情趋势的深刻理解，依托深厚的投研积累，在 市场的起伏中尽力为持有人创造更优的投资体验。 尤其是自10月以来，权益市场波动明显加剧，曾备受追捧、被寄予厚望的科技股出现显著分化和震荡。 在这样的环境中，如何理解"稳"的价值？又该怎样在不确定中捕捉确定性？本期《深夜食堂》，让我们 一同聆听张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "stability" is undervalued in volatile markets, as articulated by Zhang Yonghe of Guotai Fund, emphasizing that it is not conservative but rather an active management strategy aimed at optimizing the investment experience and ensuring long-term stability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke the 4000-point barrier on October 28, marking the first time since August 18, 2015, but experienced slight fluctuations on the same day, indicating market volatility [4]. - The current market is characterized as a "structural market" rather than a typical bull market, with only 10% to 20% of stocks doubling in value since September 24, 2022, primarily in small-cap and AI-related sectors [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on controlling portfolio volatility to achieve stability during market fluctuations, with a neutral overall position that has resulted in significantly lower drawdowns compared to the market average [6][7]. - Zhang Yonghe emphasizes macroeconomic research as a core element of investment decisions, aiming to identify turning points and opportunities based on economic trends, corporate earnings, and liquidity conditions [7][8]. Group 3: Portfolio Management - The investment approach incorporates a strong contrarian mindset, suggesting that opportunities often arise when assets are overlooked by the market [9]. - The strategy involves dynamic portfolio management, adjusting asset allocations based on market conditions and the relative value of assets, ensuring a balance between different investment styles [10][13]. Group 4: Enhancing Investor Experience - The ultimate goal of a stable investment strategy is to enhance the investor's experience by minimizing significant or prolonged losses and maintaining a smooth upward trajectory in returns [15]. - Zhang Yonghe's philosophy aligns with the idea that a positive investment experience is paramount, allowing investors to feel secure in their equity market investments without the stress of timing the market [15].

Core Insights - The concept of "stability" in investment is emphasized as an undervalued strength, aiming to optimize the holding experience and support long-term investment success [1][2] - The investment strategy focuses on macroeconomic and market judgments to enhance the investment experience for holders, avoiding significant and prolonged losses [2][4] Market Context - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke the 4000-point mark on October 28, marking its first time above this level since August 18, 2015, although it experienced slight fluctuations on the same day [3] - The current market is characterized as a "structural market," with only 10% to 20% of stocks doubling in value since September 24, 2022, indicating significant market differentiation and a lack of widespread profit [4] Investment Strategy - The investment approach is centered on controlling portfolio volatility to achieve stability during market fluctuations, with a neutral overall position that has resulted in lower drawdowns compared to the market average [5] - The investment framework involves macroeconomic research to identify turning points and opportunities, with recent allocations to utilities and transportation sectors based on predictions of counter-cyclical adjustments [5][6] Portfolio Management - The strategy includes left-side trading, which requires patience and is supported by a diversified portfolio that allows for waiting on underperforming assets [7] - Dynamic balance in portfolio management is crucial, adjusting asset weights based on market conditions and the actual value changes of assets [8] Investor Experience - The ultimate goal of the investment strategy is to enhance the investor's experience by minimizing significant losses and ensuring a smooth upward trajectory of returns [9] - The philosophy emphasizes that a positive investment experience is achieved when the time spent in profitable conditions outweighs the time in losses, reflecting a long-term view of stability [9]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "stability" in investment is undervalued and should be seen as proactive management aimed at optimizing the holding experience and ensuring long-term investment success [2][3] Market Analysis - The recent market is characterized as a "structural market" rather than a typical bull market, with only 10% to 20% of stocks doubling in value since September 24, 2022, primarily in small-cap and AI-related sectors [6][7] - Despite some active trading phases, the median gain across the A-share market is significantly lower than the index gains, indicating a clear divergence in market performance [7] Investment Strategy - The focus on "stability" is crucial for managing portfolio volatility, allowing for sustained performance amid market fluctuations. The overall portfolio positioning has been neutral, with a notable reduction in drawdown compared to market averages [8] - A robust investment framework has been developed, emphasizing macroeconomic research to identify turning points and opportunities for left-side positioning [9][10] Portfolio Management - Left-side trading requires patience, as evidenced by the successful positioning in brokerage stocks that began in the second half of 2023, with benefits realized in 2024 [12] - Dynamic portfolio management is essential, adapting to market style shifts and adjusting asset allocations based on actual value changes [13][14] Investor Experience - Enhancing the investor experience is a primary goal, focusing on avoiding significant or prolonged losses while ensuring a smooth upward trajectory in returns [15][16] - The ultimate aim is to provide investors with peace of mind in equity investments, minimizing the need for complex timing decisions [16]

Group 1 - Investment focus on improving people's livelihoods through projects such as urban renewal, underground pipeline renovation, parking lot construction, and high-standard farmland [2][3] - Emphasis on innovation investment in the technology sector to accelerate the formation of new productive forces, contributing to long-term development advantages [6][7] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital and alleviating local government investment pressure, potentially leveraging around 3 trillion yuan in investments [9][10] - The new financial tools are expected to guide and boost investment expectations, signaling stable investment and continuous improvement in future development [12]

Core Insights - The new policy financial tools are being implemented at an unprecedented speed, with a total of 189.35 billion yuan allocated by the China Development Bank (CDB) and 100.11 billion yuan by the Agricultural Development Bank (ADB) as of October 17, 2023, expected to leverage a total investment of approximately 28 trillion yuan [1][8] - The tools are designed to address the capital shortage for major projects, acting as a market-oriented quasi-fiscal mechanism to stimulate investment and support economic stability [6][7] Group 1: Financial Tool Implementation - As of October 17, 2023, the CDB has allocated 189.35 billion yuan, which is expected to drive a total investment of 2.8 trillion yuan, while the ADB has allocated 100.11 billion yuan, expected to drive over 1.26 trillion yuan in total investment [1][8] - The new policy financial tools have a total initial scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed solely at supplementing project capital [1][6] Group 2: Investment Focus and Allocation - The funds are primarily directed towards key economic sectors, with 77.4% of CDB's investments going to 12 major provinces and 28.8% supporting private investment projects [2] - The focus areas include digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumer sectors, with CDB investing 710.5 billion yuan in these fields, accounting for 37.5% of its total allocation [2][8] Group 3: Expected Economic Impact - The new financial tools are projected to have a significant economic impact, with estimates suggesting they could leverage between 1.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan in infrastructure investment [8][9] - The tools are expected to facilitate a recovery in infrastructure investment growth rates, with projections indicating a potential increase to 6.0% year-on-year by the end of the year [9][10] Group 4: Long-term Structural Changes - The implementation of these tools is seen as a shift from traditional stimulus measures to a focus on structural repair, aiming to restore investment cycles without significantly increasing government debt or monetary supply [7][8] - The tools are also intended to support the transition towards new productive forces, particularly in emerging sectors like low-carbon economy and digital technologies, laying the groundwork for future economic growth [8][9]

Core Insights - The meeting emphasized the importance of the fourth quarter as a critical period for achieving annual goals and completing the 14th Five-Year Plan, laying a solid foundation for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] - There is a focus on aligning with central government requirements, enhancing operational scheduling, and striving for better outcomes [1] - Efforts will be made to stabilize enterprises, markets, and expectations to boost social confidence [1] Group 1 - The government aims to target key areas and critical links to maintain momentum [1] - A "combination punch" strategy will be implemented to boost consumption, promoting the expansion and upgrading of bulk consumption [1] - Development of new consumption models will be prioritized, alongside the integration of culture, commerce, tourism, and sports [1] Group 2 - Forward-looking planning will include services such as housekeeping and elderly care to enhance consumer services [1] - There will be an emphasis on stabilizing investment and ensuring the smooth operation of industrial and supply chains [1] - Support for major engineering projects will be strengthened [1] Group 3 - The integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation will be promoted to develop new productive forces [1] - There is a strong push for the professionalization and high-end development of the service industry [1]