Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with supply contraction providing some support but demand weakness restricting price increases. The core contradiction lies in the game between high inventory and weak demand. Future focus should be on the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will lead to more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, temporarily observing for arbitrage, and considering a bear spread option combination [39]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 740,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,300 tons or 3.93%. Light soda ash production was 325,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,100 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 415,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,200 tons [10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48 percentage points. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67 percentage points, and the combined soda process capacity utilization rate was 75.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.60 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,900 tons or 0.94%. Light soda ash inventory was 759,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,800 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 940,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 16, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 699,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The overall shipment rate was 94.50%, a week - on - week increase of 2.27 percentage points [16]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. The cost side had a narrow upward trend, and the soda ash price was weakly stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process continued to be weak [20]. - The theoretical profit (double - ton) of the combined soda process for soda ash was - 129.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The cost increased, the soda ash price was weakly stable, and the by - product ammonium chloride price declined, resulting in a significant decrease in the double - ton profit of the combined soda process [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Output - As of October 16, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 9th. The weekly output from October 10 - 16, 2025 was 1.1289 million tons, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.62% [27]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes or 2.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The price of动力煤(5500 kcal) increased by 2.55% to 723 yuan/ton; the price of原盐 - 井矿盐 in the East China region increased by 4% to 260 yuan/ton, while in the Northeast region it decreased by 3.7% to 1300 yuan/ton. Light soda ash prices in some regions such as Central China decreased, and heavy soda ash prices in some regions such as Northwest China decreased. The price of float glass decreased by 1.11% to 1246 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium chloride decreased by 5.26% to 360 yuan/ton [37]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week continued the pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply contracted, but demand was weak, and high - inventory pressure was not relieved. Profit conditions deteriorated further, and the core contradiction was the game between high inventory and weak demand [38].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market is currently experiencing a weak and stable trend, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. As of now, the mainstream price for light soda ash is between 980-1600 RMB/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 980-1480 RMB/ton [1] - The market began the month with a downward trend due to high inventory and weak demand, particularly in North and South China. However, by mid-month, prices stabilized and saw slight increases in some regions due to supply constraints and pre-holiday stocking [1][2] - By the end of the month, the market showed signs of slight recovery, but overall demand remained sluggish, leading to a narrow price range with limited upward momentum [1][2] Group 2: Price Comparison - In September, the price of light soda ash in Northeast China decreased by 1.68% compared to August, while heavy soda ash dropped by 3.19%. In North China, light soda ash prices fell by 4.24%, and heavy soda ash decreased by 3.19% [3] - The price index for light soda ash as of September 28 was 1185.71, reflecting a decrease of 0.24% from the beginning of the month, while the heavy soda ash index increased by 0.93% [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of soda ash is expected to recover to high levels due to limited maintenance in the upcoming month, while overall industry inventory remains high, leading manufacturers to focus on sales to reduce stock [6] - The soda ash production in August was 3.281 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.92% and a month-on-month increase of 5.87% [16] - The operating rate of soda ash enterprises in August was approximately 85.25%, reflecting a slight increase of 4.09% from the previous month [18] Group 4: Import and Export Analysis - In August, China imported 0.03 thousand tons of soda ash, a significant year-on-year decrease of 99.64% and a month-on-month decrease of 90.98%. Cumulatively, from January to August, imports totaled approximately 2.07 thousand tons, down 97.68% from the previous year [9] - Conversely, soda ash exports in August reached 21.54 thousand tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 158.11% and a month-on-month increase of 33.56%. From January to August, total exports amounted to 136.94 thousand tons, up 132.58% year-on-year [12]

Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with slight price adjustments in some regions for heavy soda ash [2] - As of August 20, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1370 CNY/ton [2] Price Index Analysis - On August 20, the light soda ash price index stood at 1217.14, unchanged from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index decreased by 8.57 to 1257.14, reflecting a decline of 0.68% [3] Futures Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1358 CNY/ton and closed at 1309 CNY/ton on August 20, marking a daily decline of 5.01% [5] - The market is under pressure due to high supply and accumulating inventory, with concerns over demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry [5] Future Market Predictions - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, with increasing industry inventory [6] - Key factors to monitor include the resumption of production facilities, downstream replenishment activities, and fluctuations in futures market sentiment [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of soda ash is strong while the demand is weak. The sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1371 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [6]. - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1320 yuan/ton, up 5.60% [6]. - The main basis was -50 yuan/ton, down 57.63% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1320 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental - Supply - The production profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was -22.90 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was 56.50 yuan/ton, with production profit rebounding from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.27%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash was 69.98 tons, with heavy soda ash at 39.87 tons, at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant capacity expansion and new production plans in the soda ash industry [21]. 3.4 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 109.83% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate stabilized at 75% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [30]. 3.5 Fundamental - Inventory - The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [2][33]. 3.6 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash from 2017 - 2024E showed that the industry's supply - demand relationship has fluctuated, with capacity, production, and demand all changing [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.8 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [5]. - **Risk Points**: The cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macro - level benefits exceed expectations [5].

纯碱价格自7月下旬开始止涨回稳。据隆众资讯统计，截至8月4日，华东地区重质纯碱市场价格在1350 元(吨价，下同)。隆众资讯分析师徐彬华介绍说："随着前期检修企业陆续恢复生产，市场供应逐步增 加，叠加宏观预期有所降温，纯碱行情逐渐回归基本面主导。短期来看，预计纯碱价格走势以震荡偏弱 为主，前期高价位地区则存在回调压力。" 供应压力犹存 近期国内纯碱市场供需双弱，受部分装置意外减量影响，整体供应有所下降。据隆众周报数据显示，截 至7月31日，纯碱周度产量为69.98万吨，较前一周减少2.40万吨，跌幅为3.32%。综合利用率环比降至 80.27%。 市场动态显示，当前纯碱供应收缩态势或难以持续。据徐彬华介绍，包括实联化工(江苏)有限公司110 万吨/年、安徽德邦化工有限公司60万吨/年等多套纯碱装置计划在8月上旬陆续复产。据隆众资讯统 计，8月份纯碱日产量预计维持在10.5万吨左右，周度产量预计增长至73.36万吨。 新增产能方面，今年以来国内纯碱新增产能已超200万吨，下半年仍有350万吨新增产能计划投放市场， 未来供应压力或将逐渐显现。 从期货价格来看，8月3日，郑州商品交易所(郑商所)纯碱期货主力合约25 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with prices holding firm but limited upward support due to a balanced supply-demand situation [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of July 15, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1150-1250 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1340 CNY/ton. In Central China, light soda ash is priced at 1110-1310 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1220-1340 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on July 15 is 1157.14, reflecting a slight increase of 1.43, or 0.12%, from the previous working day. The heavy soda ash price index remains unchanged at 1225.71 [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market experienced a slight decline on July 15, with the main contract opening at 1240 CNY/ton and closing at 1214 CNY/ton, marking a daily drop of 0.65%. The highest price during the day was 1247 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1202 CNY/ton, with total open interest increasing by 52,588 contracts to 1,585,075 [5]. - The supply side shows scattered maintenance and some companies increasing production, maintaining high output levels. However, industry profits are declining, putting pressure on producers. Downstream demand remains weak, with buyers primarily engaging in low-price essential purchases [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable operation in the short term, with weak driving forces and an unchanged supply-demand balance. Future attention should be given to macroeconomic policy changes and inventory fluctuations that may impact the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market remains stable overall, with slight price declines in some regions for heavy soda ash, and a lack of significant positive support for trading activities [2][5]. Price Analysis - As of July 8, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1170-1250 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1220-1340 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash is priced at 1250-1360 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1310-1460 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index is 1158.57, unchanged from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index decreased by 7.14 to 1221.43, a decline of 0.58% [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market showed a slight rebound on July 8, with the main contract SA2509 opening at 1166 CNY/ton and closing at 1178 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily increase of 0.60%. The highest price during the day was 1188 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1165 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,693,895 contracts, down by 107,283 contracts [5]. - The market is characterized by high supply levels and accumulating inventories, while demand remains weak, leading to a loose supply-demand balance. Despite a short-term rebound due to market sentiment, the overall price increase potential is limited due to high inventory pressure and weak demand [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term, with ongoing supply adjustments and inventory changes being critical factors to monitor [6].

Price Index Summary - In May 2025, the Xinhua Zhongyan industrial salt price index reported 947.78 points, a decrease of 15.96 points (1.66%) from April 2025, and a decline of 52.22 points (5.22%) from the base period of January 2018 [1] - The index is down 788.88 points (4.43%) from the highest point of 1736.66 points in April 2022, but up 131.58 points (16.12%) from the lowest point of 816.2 points in August 2020 [1] Regional Price Trends - In May 2025, industrial salt prices increased in Anhui, Jiangsu, Chongqing, and Yunnan compared to April 2025, while prices remained stable in Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, and Liaoning [1] - Prices decreased in Shaanxi, Jiangxi, Henan, Xinjiang, Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin compared to April 2025 [1] - Three regions reported industrial salt prices above 300 RMB/ton: Henan, Yunnan, and Liaoning, while 14 regions reported prices below 300 RMB/ton [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In May, the raw salt market in China experienced increased supply with stable demand, particularly due to intensified salt production efforts post-May Day holiday [2] - The sea salt market saw a significant rise in supply, especially in Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu, but downstream demand from alkali enterprises remained limited, leading to increased inventory pressure [2] - Some salt companies began to implement slight price reductions to alleviate inventory pressure and promote sales [2] Market Segmentation - The mineral salt market showed significant regional price differentiation, with supply tightening in North and Central China due to maintenance shutdowns, leading to price increases [3] - In contrast, the Southwest region saw stable supply due to increased production capacity, while the Northwest maintained high production levels, resulting in stable pricing [3] - The lake salt market remained balanced with stable supply and demand, although increased temperatures in the Northwest led to higher lake salt production [3] Soda Ash Market Conditions - As of the end of May, the soda ash market continued to face pressure due to overcapacity, with weak demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries [4] - The overall effective production capacity in the soda ash industry remained stable, with limited major maintenance affecting supply [4] - Inventory levels for soda ash producers increased, while social inventory slightly decreased, indicating ongoing overcapacity in the market [4] Liquid Alkali Market Overview - The liquid alkali market in May exhibited a relatively loose supply-demand balance, with local adjustments in supply and demand [5][6] - Supply remained sufficient due to the recovery of previously shut down production facilities, although regional demand showed variability [6] - The textile and dyeing industries provided some demand support, while the aluminum oxide sector's demand fluctuated due to maintenance and production adjustments [6]

Market Overview - The domestic soda ash market remains stable overall, with slight declines in some regions. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is between 1270-1380 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash is between 1280-1390 CNY/ton. In Southwest China, light soda ash is priced at 1230-1360 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is between 1330-1510 CNY/ton [2]. Supply and Demand - On the supply side, the Zhongyan Kunshan soda ash facility is undergoing scheduled maintenance, while the Lianyungang Debang facility is gradually increasing its operational load. Demand remains weak, with downstream companies adopting a conservative purchasing strategy, typically replenishing stocks only when prices dip [2]. - The overall trading atmosphere in the market is relatively quiet, with a strong sense of caution among industry participants regarding future market conditions [2]. Price Index Analysis - As of June 20, the light soda ash price index is 1234.29, down 2.86 from the previous working day, a decrease of 0.23%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1271.43, down 1.43, a decrease of 0.11% [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On June 20, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1174 CNY/ton and closed at 1173 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.26%. The highest price during the day was 1193 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1164 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,468,176 contracts, a decrease of 27,284 contracts [5]. - The soda ash futures market exhibited a volatile trend, initially rising before retreating due to supply-demand fundamentals. The industry faces oversupply and accumulating inventory, with weak downstream demand and limited order volumes [5]. Future Market Predictions - Currently, the number of maintenance enterprises is low, leading to a relaxed supply situation in the soda ash market. Downstream purchasing intentions are weak, and there is a lack of significant driving factors for the market. It is expected that short-term soda ash prices will maintain a narrow fluctuation trend, with attention needed on operational conditions of enterprises and changes in downstream replenishment rhythms [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a slight downward trend in prices, with declines ranging from 10 to 130 yuan per ton, primarily due to weak downstream demand and increased supply from restored production facilities [2][3]. Price Trends - As of June 3, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1290-1420 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1370-1500 yuan/ton [2]. - The price index for light soda ash on June 3 is 1284.29, down 28.57 from the previous working day, a decrease of 2.18%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1342.86, down 2.86, a decline of 0.21% [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of soda ash has increased due to the normal operation of the Shilian Chemical soda ash facility, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to a subdued purchasing sentiment [2]. - The market is characterized by a cautious atmosphere, with actual transaction volumes falling short of expectations and limited new orders [2]. Futures Market - On June 3, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1185 yuan/ton and closed at the same price, reflecting a daily decline of 0.92%. The highest price during the day was 1190 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1173 yuan/ton, with total open interest at 1,438,866 contracts, an increase of 17,164 contracts [5]. - The futures market continues to show a weak trend, driven by expectations of a weakening fundamental outlook, with supply pressures expected to persist due to new production capacities coming online [5]. Market Outlook - The industry is expected to see a slight increase in overall supply due to concurrent equipment maintenance and resumption of production. However, weak downstream demand and a lack of significant driving factors are anticipated to keep soda ash prices within a narrow fluctuation range in the short term [6].