据央视新闻，当地时间10月10日晚，法国总统马克龙再次任命塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼担任总理。 爱丽舍宫在当晚发布的新闻公报中表示，"共和国总统任命塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼为总理，并委托他组建 新政府"。 勒科尔尼此前于9月9日被马克龙任命为总理，10月5日组阁，10月6日向马克龙请辞。 6日，在任仅27天、组阁未过24小时的勒科尔尼向马克龙辞职获批，成为法兰西第五共和国任期最短的 总理，也是马克龙任内下台的第七名总理。媒体分析认为，近期法国政局动荡持续，反映出法国政治妥 协缺失与经济增长疲软的困境下，内部矛盾的不断激化。 据法国央行预测，今年法国经济增长率约为0.7%。法国巴黎银行经济学家斯特凡·科利亚克（Stéphane Colliac）表示："如果没有政治危机，增长率本可能接近1%。"安联贸易公司（Allianz Trade）经济学家 马克西姆·达尔梅（Maxime Darmet）得出相同结论，也将增长损失估算为0.3个百分点。 专家分析认为，这一显著的经济增长放缓源于家庭和企业的极度谨慎。由于担心税收上升或公共补贴减 少，民众消费意愿降低，企业投资信心不足。 法国国家统计与经济研究所每月进行的家庭信心调查结果印 ...

美国政府"停摆"还在持续发酵，其影响已从政治圈蔓延至现实经济。 首当其冲自然是美国旅游业，不少兴致勃勃的游客无奈吃到"闭门羹"。美国旅游协会首席执行官杰夫· 弗里曼表示，"停摆"一周将导致旅游业损失10亿美元。美国国家公园保护协会估计，国家公园在"停 摆"期间关闭，每天损失100万美元门票收入，周边商户每天损失7700万美元。 比特币、黄金强势新高 此外，根据美国交通部计划，联邦航空局已有上万人被迫停薪休假，无奈面临人员短缺问题，如果已预 订航班数量让系统难以应对，联邦航空局将不得不放缓飞机起降节奏，导致更多航班遭延误或取消。 这还只是开始。有分析指出，政府停摆若持续，可能导致出口证书停发、港口货物滞留、能源钻井许可 停批……这些场景，在美国过去的停摆闹剧中都曾真实上演。 美国政府"停摆"，民众怨声载道 随着政府停摆的持续，"懂王"特朗普也不断加大对民主党人的施压，他表示正考虑大幅削减数千个联邦 职位。 当前美国就业状况不容乐观，特朗普威胁要大规模解雇联邦雇员，后续停摆对美国经济的冲击可能超出 预期。 牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家瑞安·斯威特估计，本次停摆每多持续一周，就可能导致美国四季度 年化经济增长率多 ...

The most-important driver of U.S. growth skidded to a halt last month, raising yet more questions over the health of the world's biggest economy heading into the final quarter of the year. The Institute for Supply Management's services index fell to a reading of 50 in September, bang in-line with the threshold that separates growth from contraction for the first time since 2010. The ISM's business activity index, meanwhile, sipped to 49.9, the first contraction reading since May of 2020. ...

Government Shutdown Impact on Sectors - A partial government shutdown could disproportionately impact the defense and healthcare sectors due to potential delays in government contracts and approvals necessary for drug development [3] - Historically, most government shutdowns last only a few days, resulting in minimal impact on these sectors [4] Economic Growth Implications - A partial government shutdown may dampen economic growth as federal workers are not paid during the shutdown, leading to reduced household spending [5] - Current estimates for economic growth remain robust, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting over 3% annualized growth and the New York Fed's Nowcast estimating 2.5% [5] Essential Government Functions - Many essential government functions, such as Medicare, Social Security, and the U.S. Postal Service, will continue to operate during a shutdown, limiting the overall impact on essential services [6] Potential Layoffs - The Office of Management and Budget may consider additional layoffs during a shutdown, particularly in programs with discretionary funding lapses [8] Future Expectations - Prediction markets currently view a partial government shutdown as likely, with its duration being a critical factor for economic impact [9][10]

Group 1 - Recent data indicates a sharp increase in inflation risks in the U.S., raising widespread market concerns following the Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut [1][5] - Approximately 72% of components in the U.S. Consumer Price Index have exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target, marking the highest level in three years, compared to 55% last year, suggesting a clear trend of accelerating inflation [3] - The broadness of current inflation has surpassed the pre-pandemic average of 57% in 2018 and 2019, indicating a significant rise in inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - Signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market present a challenging decision for the Federal Reserve, balancing the need to address slowing economic growth while monitoring rising inflation data [5] - Economists warn of potential stagflation risks, where economic growth stagnates alongside high inflation [5][7] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the interest rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, with expectations of further rate cuts in October and December if labor market conditions worsen [5] Group 3 - Economic experts express concerns over the current situation, highlighting the need for vigilance as unemployment rises while inflation remains high [7] - Some officials indicate that the impact of tariff policies on the economy has yet to fully materialize, suggesting potential broader market risks [7] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's next policy moves, with a focus on balancing economic growth support and inflation control as a primary challenge [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% reflects a cautious approach amid economic slowdown and inflation concerns, indicating a need for careful management rather than aggressive recovery measures [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The rate cut is likened to a small health boost in a game, suggesting that while it provides some relief, it is not sufficient for a full recovery [3]. - Economic growth is slowing, the job market is weakening, and inflation remains a concern, leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a patchwork approach to stabilize the market [3]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve acknowledges a decline in both labor supply and demand, attributing this to external factors such as tariffs and immigration policies, indicating a cooling labor market [3][5]. - The commentary suggests that the labor market's current state resembles a game where both players and monsters are diminishing, highlighting the challenges faced [3]. Group 3: Political Influences - The Federal Reserve's independence is under scrutiny due to political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, who has criticized the Fed's cautious stance and called for more aggressive actions [5]. - The internal dynamics within the Federal Reserve are compared to a political drama, with new appointments and differing opinions on rate cuts, reflecting the complexities of maintaining independence amid external pressures [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's strategy is characterized by keywords such as caution, prudence, and flexibility, indicating a careful balancing act between employment and inflation while navigating political interference [7]. - The contrasting styles of Fed Chair Powell and Trump illustrate the ongoing tension between cautious economic management and calls for rapid action, leaving the outcome uncertain [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, in response to slowing economic growth in the U.S. [1] Economic Growth - U.S. GDP growth for the first half of the year is approximately 1.5%, down from 2.5% in the previous year [1] - Employment growth is slowing, and there is an increase in employment downside risks, despite the unemployment rate remaining low [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Recent inflation has risen and remains at a high level [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to continue balance sheet reduction alongside the rate cut [1] Future Projections - The median forecast indicates that the federal funds rate will decrease to 3.6% by the end of this year, 3.4% by the end of 2026, and further to 3.1% by the end of 2027, which is a downward adjustment of 25 basis points from the June forecast [1] - Individual assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate reflect uncertainty and are not a predetermined plan or decision by the committee [1]

Core Viewpoint - The IMF projects that Vietnam's GDP growth rate will slow to 6.5% in 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, despite a strong rebound expected in 2024 with a growth rate of 7.09% [1] Economic Outlook - In 2024, Vietnam's economy is expected to rebound strongly, driven by exports, foreign direct investment, and supportive policies, achieving a growth rate of 7.09% [1] - The positive momentum is anticipated to continue into the first half of 2025, with GDP growth projected at 7.5%, supported by prior export investments, accelerated credit growth, and significant government spending [1] Trade Relations Impact - The economic outlook for Vietnam is heavily dependent on the outcomes of trade negotiations with the U.S., alongside increasing uncertainties in global trade policies and economic conditions [1] - The expected slowdown in economic growth to 6.5% in 2025 is attributed to the effects of U.S. tariff policies throughout the year and the anticipated cancellation of most government one-time stimulus measures [1] Future Projections - Further economic growth deceleration is expected in 2026 following the trends established in 2025 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic growth in August continued to slow down, with industrial production, consumption, and investment all showing signs of weakness. Insufficient effective demand remains the core contradiction [1][8]. - Given the slowdown in economic growth, macro - policies need to play a role in promoting economic recovery. Fiscal, consumption, and real - estate policies are expected to be further adjusted [2][9]. - The bond market is supported by insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery, but potential risks from subsequent policy efforts need to be noted. Bond market fluctuations may depend more on marginal changes in institutional behavior and capital flows [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 8 月经济数据：经济增长再放缓 - In August, industrial增加值 was 5.2% year - on - year (expected 5.7%, previous value 5.7%), social retail sales were 3.4% year - on - year (expected 3.8%, previous value 3.7%), and fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year was 0.5% (expected 1.3%, previous value 1.6%). Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment all declined [8]. 工业生产韧性尚存，环比动能略降 - In August, the year - on - year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to August was 6.2%. The growth of the service industry production index was 5.6%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - The year - on - year growth rates of the electrical machinery and chemical industries increased significantly, while those of the special equipment and transportation equipment industries declined. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries was 8.1% and 9.3% respectively, 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points faster than the overall industrial added value [16][17]. - The output of emerging products such as robot reducers, industrial robots, 3D printing equipment, and industrial control computers and systems increased rapidly [17]. 消费增速延续回落，增量政策箭在弦上 - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than in July, the lowest increase this year. The growth rate of commodity retail sales decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the growth rate of catering revenue increased by 1.0 percentage point but remained at a relatively low level [19]. - The effect of the "trade - in" policy weakened, and the subsidy method adjustment in some areas affected the policy's immediate pulling effect. The weak performance of commodity sales, especially the sluggish automobile consumption, also dragged down the overall retail sales [21][22]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on expanding service consumption policies [10][24]. 投资增速出现下行，继续低位磨底 - From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, 1.1 percentage points lower than from January to July, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [25]. - Manufacturing investment cumulative year - on - year was 5.1%. The policy effect of large - scale equipment renewal continued to be released, with equipment purchase investment growing rapidly. However, in the short term, corporate investment motivation may decline, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased less year - on - year [28]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) cumulative year - on - year was 2.0%, with the construction progress of major traditional infrastructure projects slowing down. The high - temperature and rainy weather in August affected construction, and the capital in - place situation of some projects may not meet expectations due to local government debt - resolution pressure [28][29]. - Real - estate investment cumulative year - on - year was - 12.9%. The decline in sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing widened, and real - estate development investment reached the largest decline this year. The real - estate market was still in the stage of "trading price for volume", and real - estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented in the second half of the year [29].

Economic Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by one percentage point to 17% to support the economy amid slowing growth and increased war spending [1] - The bank previously raised its key rate to 21% to combat inflation but is now retreating due to concerns from business leaders and legislators about the negative impact on economic activity [1][2] Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation in Russia eased somewhat to 8.2% in July and August, but expectations remain elevated, which may hinder a sustainable slowdown in inflation [2] - Year-over-year economic growth slowed to 1.1% in Q2 from 1.4% in Q1 and 4.5% at the end of the previous year, with a negative 0.6% growth compared to the previous quarter [4] Budget Deficit and Spending - The budget deficit increased to 4.9 trillion rubles ($58 billion) in the January-July period, significantly up from 1.1 trillion rubles the previous year, with spending at 129% of the planned amount [5] - Oil and gas revenues fell by 19% compared to the same period last year, partly due to lower global oil prices [5] Economic Resilience - Despite sanctions and the loss of natural gas sales to Europe, the Russian economy has performed better than expected, with record low unemployment and rising household incomes [6] - Recruitment bonuses have injected cash into poorer regions, and oil shipments have remained steady despite price fluctuations [6] Financing the Deficit - The government is financing its deficit by selling ruble bonds to domestic banks, which are eager to purchase them in anticipation of falling interest rates [7]