行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货11月20日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2512 | 1,768.7 | 1,756.0 | 1 ...

1、美联储对利率前景的讨论情况。2、美联储对资产负债表的讨论情况。3、美联储官员们对经济形势 的看法，包括关税通胀、就业市场、创历史最长纪录的政府关门事件等。4、美联储对金融市场的看 法，包括储备金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has caught many investors off guard, with significant gains for those who purchased gold at lower prices [1] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - **Dollar Strength**: The relationship between gold and the US dollar is inversely correlated; a weaker dollar typically leads to higher gold prices, while a stronger dollar results in lower prices [3] - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy**: Lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset, leading to price increases, whereas higher rates tend to decrease gold's appeal [4] - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Events such as wars or financial crises increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, driving prices up during times of uncertainty [5] - **Economic Conditions**: Economic downturns or uncertainty lead to increased gold purchases as a stable investment, while strong economic performance tends to decrease demand for gold [6] - **Inflation Expectations**: Rising expectations of inflation boost gold's appeal as a hedge, resulting in price increases, while declining inflation expectations can lead to price drops [7] - **Safe-Haven Demand**: Events like pandemics or disasters heighten risk aversion, increasing gold prices, while a return to normalcy can reduce demand [9] - **Global Monetary Policy**: Coordinated global monetary easing, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing, tends to increase gold prices, while tightening policies can lead to price declines [10] - **Financial Crises**: During financial crises, gold is viewed as a safe haven, with prices rising in response to increased demand; as crises abate, prices typically fall [11] - **Market Demand**: The overall demand for gold, including purchases by central banks and for jewelry, affects prices; higher demand with limited supply leads to price increases [12] - **US Economic Indicators**: Poor performance in key US economic indicators can drive investors towards gold, resulting in price increases, while strong indicators may lead to price declines [13]

Group 1 - Discussion among Federal Reserve officials regarding the extent of interest rate cuts [1] - Examination of the economic situation, particularly focusing on employment and inflation issues [1] - Deliberation on tariffs and fiscal policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of regular communication with private enterprises to support high-quality development and to gather real-time insights on economic conditions and industry trends [2][6]. Group 1: Importance of Regular Meetings - The private economy in China has reached a significant scale and plays a crucial role in stabilizing growth and employment [2]. - Regular meetings with private enterprises help the NDRC to understand the real situation and evaluate the effectiveness of existing policies [2][5]. - Over the past two years, the NDRC has held more than 500 discussions with private enterprises, while local development and reform departments have conducted over 20,000 meetings [2]. Group 2: Meeting Process - The meeting process consists of four main steps: determining the meeting theme, selecting participating enterprises, organizing the meeting, and following up on outcomes [3][4]. - Themes for discussions are chosen based on current economic conditions and industry needs, with 18 meetings focusing on various topics such as economic sentiment and trade [3]. - A diverse range of enterprises, including large, medium, and small companies from different regions, are invited to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the issues faced [3]. Group 3: Outcomes and Follow-up - A total of 191 suggestions have been made by private enterprises during the 18 meetings, with over 160 already addressed [5]. - The NDRC is committed to tracking the operational status of private enterprises and providing targeted support in areas such as finance and legal services [7]. - The NDRC aims to create a multi-layered communication mechanism to effectively address the challenges faced by private enterprises and promote their healthy and high-quality development [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and outlook of the AI Fund Xingquan Global Vision Stock (340006), which reported a profit of 49.78 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0914 yuan and a net value growth rate of 4.09% [3] - As of September 5, the fund's unit net value was 2.738 yuan, and its scale reached 1.177 billion yuan by the end of the first half of 2025 [3][33] - The fund manager expressed optimism about China's economy while acknowledging ongoing challenges, including the need to stabilize the real estate market and address local government debt issues [3] Group 2 - The fund's recent performance metrics indicate a three-month net value growth rate of 24.38%, a six-month growth rate of 19.96%, and a one-year growth rate of 41.85%, ranking it 15th, 20th, and 29th respectively among comparable funds [6] - The fund's weighted price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 30.54 times, compared to the industry average of 20.85 times, while the weighted price-to-book ratio (LF) is about 2.38 times, slightly above the average of 2.12 times [11] - The fund's weighted revenue growth rate (TTM) for the first half of 2025 was 0.04%, and the weighted net profit growth rate (TTM) was 0.07% [19] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had a three-year Sharpe ratio of -0.1241, ranking 45th among comparable funds, and a maximum drawdown of 33.95%, ranking 28th among 59 comparable funds [27][29] - The fund's average stock position over the past three years was 86.67%, slightly below the industry average of 88.81% [32] - The fund's top ten holdings include companies such as CATL, Luxshare Precision, and Sany Heavy Industry, indicating a focus on key players in the technology and industrial sectors [42]

Report Core View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policies being relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rising to 49.4% [2] - The basis shows a neutral situation with the spot price at 79355 and a basis of -55, indicating a discount to the futures [2] - Copper inventories on August 29 increased by 950 to 158900 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 1950 tons from last week to 79748 tons, considered neutral [2] - The copper price closed above the 20-day moving average with the 20-day moving average moving upward, showing a bullish signal [2] - The main positions are net long and increasing, also a bullish indication [2] - Currently, copper prices are expected to move in a range as inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the market awaits consumption guidance in the September peak season, with no prominent long - short contradictions [2] Market Situation Analysis - In terms of recent factors, domestic policy easing is a positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative one [3] - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table reveals production, import, export, and consumption data from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22] Market Conditions - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14] - Processing fees have declined [16]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held a press conference on August 1 to interpret the current economic situation and economic work [1]

Core Insights - The current economic situation in China faces several risks and challenges, necessitating a correct understanding of the situation and an emphasis on proactive measures to leverage development opportunities and strengths [3] - The economic work for the second half of the year will be guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts, focusing on stability and progress, and ensuring policy continuity and flexibility to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations [3][5] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3] Economic Performance - The GDP growth for the first half of the year was driven by various sectors: - Primary industry added value was 31.17 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% - Secondary industry added value was 239.05 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% - Tertiary industry added value was 390.31 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% [3] - Quarterly performance showed a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [3] Policy and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic policies have shown effectiveness, contributing to a stable and improving economic trend, although external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand remain challenges [4] - The focus for the future will be on strengthening domestic circulation and ensuring high-quality development to counter external uncertainties, promoting sustained and healthy economic growth [5]

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while maintaining policy continuity and flexibility [1] - The meeting acknowledged the strong vitality and resilience of the economy this year, but also recognized various risks and challenges that need to be addressed [1] - Macro policies are to be sustained and adjusted as necessary, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1] Group 2 - Specific tasks for the second half of the year include effectively releasing domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, stabilizing foreign trade and investment, and ensuring the protection of people's livelihoods [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a bottom-line thinking approach to consolidate the positive economic momentum [2]