前言 同样沐浴着美国的贸易政策环境，一边是占企业总数 99.9% 的小企业在关税重压下缩减库存、转移生 产，甚至面临生存危机。 另一边是亚马逊、沃尔玛等巨头营收与股价双双暴涨，最高涨幅达 164%。 这场看似公平的政策调控，为何酿成 "冰火两重天" 的商业奇观？是小企业抗风险能力先天不足，还是 市场资源与规则话语权的分配失衡？ 关税冲击下的商业众生相 在美国经济版图中，小企业向来是不可或缺的基石。官方数据显示，美国现有约 3600 万家小企业，贡 献了全国 43% 的 GDP，承载着近半数私营部门就业岗位，仅 1995 至 2021 年间就创造了 1730 万个净 新增就业。 小企业的困境并非个例，从厨具生产到茶叶销售，从制造业到零售业，多个行业的中小企业都面临相似 的压力。 而大企业的狂欢也并非偶然，从供应链调整到定价策略优化，一系列操作让它们成功规避了关税的直接 冲击。这种两极分化的背后，究竟藏着怎样的深层原因？ 这样一个关乎经济根基与民生就业的群体，如今正被关税风暴裹挟前行。关税叠加效应让不少小企业不 堪重负，钢材、铝制品等原料关税在去年夏天翻倍至 50%，部分产品既要缴纳国家或地区关税，还要 额外承担 ...

4. 信贷与证券化产品：风险偏好回升，结构分化：企业信贷将受益于资本开支增加、并购活动复苏及政 策宽松，美国和欧洲市场均呈现高收益债（HY）跑赢投资级债（IG）的格局，偏好5-10年期品种以获 取滚动收益，金融板块表现优于周期板块；证券化产品受美欧放松监管提振，建议增持短期品种、下沉 至BBB-级渠道贷款证券，超配机构MBS相对投资级信贷，美国房价与住房活动维持区间波动。 5. 大宗商品：金属强于能源：原油供需平衡偏软，布伦特原油锚定60美元/桶；黄金为首选品种，宏观 因素与强劲实物需求支撑，目标价4500美元/盎司；工业金属中看好铜和铝，二者均面临显著供应挑 战；农产品中看好大豆价格，预计12-18个月目标价11.7美元/蒲式耳，高于玉米的4.7美元/蒲式耳。 6. 核心风险提示：AI投资周期突然终止、市场风险情绪过热、美国以外地区增长超预期、美联储政策 反应函数转变；此外，美国关税政策不确定性、全球贸易紧张局势、新兴市场财政失衡仍可能引发局部 波动。 1. 核心展望与资产配置主线：2026年风险资产将迎来强劲表现，核心驱动力包括微观基本面改善、AI 资本开支加速及有利政策环境，全球市场走势将受美国主导的正 ...

报告指出，面对全球不断变化的政治和经济环境带来的风险，许多企业正调整布局，将投资决策转向需 求增长更快的地区。 德国工商大会在声明中表示，反复多变且负担沉重的美国关税措施给全球经济带来较大不确定性；当 前，这种不确定性已转变为企业的失望情绪，并引发战略调整，这尤其体现在对美投资计划上。调查显 示，今年秋季仅24%的德企考虑在美追加投资，远低于一年前的37%。 德国工商大会11月13日公布的秋季调查报告显示，美国关税政策持续影响德国企业，目前仍有44%的受 访企业表示受到其负面影响，且对在美国市场发展持谨慎态度。 报告显示，在全球约90个国家和地区的3500多家受访德企中，企业营商信心较春季有所恢复。当时有 60%的企业称受到美国关税负面影响。目前，在北美有分支机构的德国企业中，仍有76%的企业表示受 关税影响。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Insights - The autumn survey report by the German Chamber of Commerce indicates that 44% of surveyed German companies are still negatively impacted by U.S. tariff policies, leading to a cautious outlook on market development in the U.S. [1] - The report shows a recovery in business confidence among German companies, with 76% of those with branches in North America still feeling the effects of tariffs, down from 60% in the spring [1] - Only 24% of German companies are considering additional investments in the U.S. this autumn, a significant decrease from 37% a year ago, reflecting a shift in investment strategies towards regions with faster demand growth [1] Group 1 - 44% of surveyed German companies report negative impacts from U.S. tariffs [1] - 76% of German companies with North American branches still feel tariff effects [1] - 24% of German companies are considering additional investments in the U.S., down from 37% [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty caused by U.S. tariff measures has led to disappointment among businesses and strategic adjustments, particularly regarding investment plans in the U.S. [1] - Companies are shifting their investment decisions towards regions with faster demand growth due to the changing global political and economic landscape [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates that Chinese and Australian businesses are enhancing cooperation to navigate global uncertainties, with nearly 80% of respondents expressing increased confidence in trade and investment relations since February 2025, primarily due to stable diplomatic relations [1][5] - The upcoming 10th anniversary of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement in 2025 is seen as a milestone, with bilateral trade expected to reach $211.27 billion in 2024, reflecting an 85.6% increase since 2015 [2] - The shift from traditional resource-based cooperation to joint capability building is emphasized, with significant potential in clean energy, healthcare, digital economy, and food security [2][6] Trade and Investment Sentiment - Two-thirds of surveyed companies reported unchanged investment intentions since February, with nearly half expecting to increase investments in China, highlighting confidence in China's structural advantages [5] - The stability of regulatory policies and high-level dialogues between China and Australia have bolstered business confidence in the bilateral framework [5] Business Adaptation Strategies - Companies are adopting pragmatic strategies to cope with global trade dynamics, recognizing the importance of maintaining operations in China due to its vast market and integrated supply chains [3][6] - Most companies are not withdrawing from the Chinese market, indicating a trend towards localization and collaboration to enhance resilience [3][5] Sectoral Shifts and Opportunities - The report highlights a notable evolution in industry focus, with a shift from resource dependency to joint development in technology, clean energy, and healthcare solutions [6][7] - Australian exports are diversifying beyond traditional minerals, with growth in agriculture, education, and biopharmaceuticals, aligning with China's rising consumer priorities [6] Future Collaboration Potential - There is significant potential for collaboration in four key areas: clean energy, healthcare, digital economy, and food security, with both countries aiming for sustainable and resilient industries [7][9] - The integration of digital health and biomanufacturing capabilities between China and Australia is expected to foster cross-border innovation platforms [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be in a volatile pattern. In the long - term, it has strategic allocation advantages due to global central bank gold - buying trends. In the short - term, it will fluctuate around the interest - rate cut expectation before the December Fed meeting and oscillate at the key level of $4000. Trading positions should wait, while long - term allocation can be made on dips after stabilization [4]. - Silver is in a short - term volatile consolidation. Its price trend is highly correlated with gold, and the long - term price center will follow gold's upward movement. Its price elasticity is higher than gold [5]. - The report suggests paying attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and subsequent macro data, as well as whether the Fed will start bond - buying operations for reserve management [5]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 01 Macro Impact Factors - **Fed Interest - Rate Cut**: Powell's hawkish stance made the market re - price the future easing path. Before the December Fed meeting, the market will fluctuate around the interest - rate cut expectation due to data uncertainty caused by the government shutdown and internal Fed differences [7]. - **US Supreme Court's Tariff Legality Ruling**: The case's final decision is pending. In the long - term, the US tariff system will shift to "precision strikes", and the economic drag from tariffs will continue [7]. - **Trade Conflict**: In the short - term, the risk of industrial chain "decoupling" in Sino - US trade has decreased, but structural contradictions remain, and future disputes will focus on technology and security [7]. - **Geopolitical Conflict**: Conflicts in areas like Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela are still ongoing, which is positive for precious metals [7]. - **US Government Shutdown**: It has entered the 40th day, causing impacts on welfare payments, healthcare, and air traffic. The probability of a bipartisan compromise has increased, and attention should be paid to whether an agreement can be reached on November 15 for the government to reopen [8]. - **Physical Gold ETF**: It has seen continuous net inflows for five months, with $82 billion in October. The trading volume has reached a record $170 billion per day, mainly driven by North American funds [8]. - **Central Bank Gold Buying**: Global central banks' net gold purchases in Q3 2025 were 220 tons, with a 28% quarterly increase and a 10% year - on - year increase. China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months [8]. 02 ETF持仓跟踪 - **Gold and Silver ETF Holdings**: Specific data on the holdings and changes of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF from November 3 - 7, 2025 are provided [30]. - **October Global Physical Gold ETF Inflows**: It had net inflows for five consecutive months, with $82 billion in October. North America and Asia led the inflows, while Europe had outflows. The trading volume reached a record high [35]. 03 Exchange Inventory - There is information about gold and silver exchange inventory, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [40][42]. 04 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences - There is information about domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [46][49]. 05 Precious Metals Ratio - There is information about precious metals ratio, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [52][55].

Election Results - The Democratic Party achieved significant victories in local elections, including New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, which are traditionally Democratic strongholds[4] - The election results may not indicate a nationwide trend due to the polarized political climate in the U.S., with Trump's policies potentially increasing Democratic voter turnout[12] Supreme Court Proceedings - The U.S. Supreme Court began hearings on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff policies, with conservative justices expressing skepticism about the president's authority to impose large-scale tariffs[13] - The court's decision could take weeks to months, providing the Trump administration time to refine its tariff policies[14] Economic Implications - The ongoing government shutdown, which has reached a historic duration, is contributing to market instability and a lack of official economic data, leading to declines in major U.S. stock indices[12] - Economic issues are expected to become central in the upcoming midterm elections, aligning with the administration's need to stabilize the economy before the elections[11] Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine situation and tensions in the Middle East, are expected to persist, with potential impacts on U.S. foreign policy and trade[16][17] - The U.S. is focusing on strategic industries in its tariff policies, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals[15] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced declines of 1.2% and 1.6% respectively, attributed to the government shutdown and lack of market guidance[5] - The Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index showed positive performance, with increases of 1.3% and 0.8% respectively, indicating regional market resilience[5]

Core Viewpoint - Nikon has reported its first operating loss in five years due to a decrease in semiconductor lithography machine sales and the impact of U.S. tariffs, leading to a downward revision of its lithography machine sales forecast for the year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Nikon's consolidated revenue for the first half of the fiscal year (April-September 2025) decreased by 6.0% year-on-year to 312.915 billion yen, with an operating loss of 4.829 billion yen compared to an operating profit of 5.8 billion yen in the same period last year [2]. - The company's net profit surged by 80.7% to 5.356 billion yen, benefiting from one-time gains from the dissolution of a subsidiary [2]. Business Segments - Precision machinery segment revenue, which includes semiconductor and FPD lithography machines, fell by 14.3% year-on-year to 69.886 billion yen, while operating profit increased by 222.6% to 3.044 billion yen due to structural reforms [2]. - The imaging segment, which includes cameras, saw revenue decline by 4.4% to 145.037 billion yen, with operating profit plummeting by 47.5% to 15.143 billion yen [2]. Sales Volume - For the period of April-September, Nikon's global sales of single-lens digital cameras increased by 17% year-on-year to 480,000 units, while interchangeable lens sales rose by 3% to 670,000 units [3]. - Sales of semiconductor lithography machines were 9 units, down from 10 units last year, and FPD lithography machine sales were 15 units, down from 16 units [3]. Revised Sales Targets - Nikon has maintained its global sales target for single-lens cameras at 950,000 units for the fiscal year, representing a 12% increase, and for interchangeable lenses at 1.4 million units, a 7% increase [3]. - The sales target for semiconductor lithography machines has been revised down from 34 units to 29 units, while the target for FPD lithography machines has been adjusted from 35 units to 33 units [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Nikon has lowered its consolidated revenue forecast for the fiscal year from 700 billion yen to 680 billion yen, a decrease of 4.9%, and its operating profit forecast from 21 billion yen to 14 billion yen, an increase of 478.1% [3]. - The net profit forecast has also been reduced from 27 billion yen to 20 billion yen, an increase of 226.6% [3].

Core Insights - BMW Group reported significant pressure on profitability due to U.S. tariffs, with a projected decline in EBIT margin for the automotive business by 1.5 percentage points for the year [1] Financial Performance - For the first nine months of the year, BMW's EBIT was €8.06 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2% [1] - Revenue decreased by 5.6% to approximately €100 billion [1] - Net profit fell by 6.8% to €5.7 billion [1] Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. tariffs have led to a 1.75 percentage point decline in the EBIT margin for the automotive business in Q3 [1] - The expected free cash flow for the year has been revised down from over €5 billion to over €2.5 billion due to tariff impacts [1] Industry Trends - Other German automakers have also reported profit declines, attributing significant impacts to U.S. tariffs [1] - Volkswagen reported a 58% year-on-year decrease in operating profit for the first nine months, with potential losses from U.S. tariffs reaching €5 billion for the year [1] - Mercedes-Benz Group's net profit halved in the first three quarters, citing U.S. tariff policies as a source of uncertainty for performance [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. container import volume continued to decline in September, with an 8.4% year-over-year drop, marking the largest monthly decline in recent years [1] - The downward trend in container throughput is expected to persist and become more pronounced until 2026, according to industry analysts [1][6] Container Import Trends - In September, the top 10 U.S. ports saw a 6.6% year-over-year decrease in container throughput, contrasting with previous months' trends [1] - The decline in imports is attributed to seasonal demand weakness and cautious sentiment related to tariffs [1][3] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates a 5.6% decrease in import cargo volume at major U.S. ports in 2025 due to new tariffs [3] Tariff Impact - The implementation of new tariffs has led to a rush to ports in previous months, with September showing a 12.8% drop in empty container imports at the Port of Oakland [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is causing significant economic unpredictability, affecting market demand [4] - The Drury East-West Contract Rate Index fell by 3% year-over-year, indicating a decline in shipping rates [4] Future Projections - The NRF predicts that the last four months of 2025 will see a 15.7% decline in container volume compared to the same period in 2024 [6] - Analysts expect to see double-digit percentage declines in cargo volumes at most U.S. ports in the coming months, continuing into 2026 [6] Global Supply Chain Adjustments - Global supply chain adjustments are occurring faster than anticipated, with manufacturers in countries facing high U.S. tariffs finding alternative markets more attractive [8] - Despite the decline in U.S. container throughput, global container throughput reached record highs in recent months [8] Economic Conditions - High inflation levels and a continuous decline in the manufacturing PMI in the U.S. are suppressing consumer spending, directly impacting container shipping demand from Asia [9] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that additional tariffs could lead to a temporary increase in inflation, affecting consumer prices [9]