美国当地时间8月13日，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨1.04%，标普500指数涨0.32%，纳指涨0.14%。 其中，纳 指、标普500指数续创历史收盘新高。 美财长：若美俄领导人会晤不顺利 美或将加大对俄制裁 当地时间13日，美国财政部长贝森特在接受媒体采访时说，如果美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京的会晤进展不顺 利，美国可能会加大对俄制裁或征收次级关税。 针对美国的制裁威胁，俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫此前曾表示，俄罗 斯经济多年来已形成对制裁的"免疫力"。 随着美国联邦政府继续以创纪录的速度举债，美国联邦政府债务规模再创新高。美国财政部最新公布的数据显示， 美国联邦政府债务规模总额首次超过了37万亿美元。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员杨子荣表示，当前在高利率与庞大的存量债务并存的背景下，美国 政府的利息支出规模已经超过了国防开支。 如果美国政府强行推动政策利率下降，虽然有助于减轻利息支出的负 担，但也不足以扭转结构性的财政赤字。此外，如果在通胀没有回归目标前就强行压低利率，可能损害政策的信 誉，抬升通胀的预期和长期利率水平，反而提高未来的融资的成本。 美政府债务突破37万亿美元 降息有用吗？ | ...

37万亿美元背后有三个维度含义 美国财政部最新公布的数据显示，美国联邦政府债务规模总额首次超过了37万亿美元。37万亿美元的巨额政府债务，对美国经济意味着什么？会产生何种 影响？此前，美国总统特朗普试图通过降息、加征关税等手段，来填补美国联邦政府债务的这个巨额窟窿，这种想法可行吗？ 高债务对美国经济有三重深层冲击 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员 杨子荣：首先，高债务会显著增加政府的利息支付的负担，并且挤压其他公共支出的空间。更为关键的 是，这还将限制美国政府在未来经济衰退时实施反周期的财政政策的能力。其次，美国政府债务的可持续性正在面临越来越多的质疑。那么出于对美国中 期财政轨道和政治治理能力的担忧，美国已经在三大国际主要信用评级机构中失去了最高等级的主权信用评级。最后，如果国际市场对美债安全性的信心 出现根本性的动摇，那么美元作为全球主要储备货币的地位也将面临严重的挑战。虽然这些手段有助于减缓美国政府债务的膨胀速度，但难以根本地遏制 其持续上升的趋势，而且副作用明显。 关税增收难解债务之困 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员 杨子荣：37万亿美元的债务规模，可以从三个维度来理解。 首先从 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with San Francisco Fed President Daly suggesting that tariffs may not have a lasting effect on inflation [1][2] - Daly believes that some companies are negotiating to share tariff costs, which may prevent significant price increases for consumers [2] - The U.S. economy is in good shape, with growth and consumer spending slowing but not weakening, and inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Musalem emphasized the need for caution regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, stating that the impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to manifest [2][3] - Musalem noted that while the impact of tariffs on inflation has not been significant so far, it is expected to become more apparent in the coming months [2] - There is a growing internal division within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a potential cut in July while others remain cautious [3]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Impact - The dollar index experienced its worst start to a year since 1973, with a decline of 10.8% by July 1, 2025, dropping below the 97 mark to a low of 96.36 [2] - The decline in the dollar is attributed to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a withdrawal of investments from U.S. assets [2][3] - The performance of the dollar has shown a clear divergence, with traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc strengthening, while the euro gained approximately 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year [4][5] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policies and Market Reactions - The "exceptionalism" narrative regarding the U.S. economy has reversed since Trump's tariff policies were implemented, leading to a decline in both U.S. stocks and bonds as investors shifted their focus away from U.S. assets [3][4] - The U.S. government has faced challenges in negotiating trade agreements, with only limited agreements reached with the UK and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and the EU remain slow and contentious [4][5] - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market volatility is expected to increase, with potential further adjustments to the dollar if the U.S. maintains a strong stance [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence and Economic Outlook - Trump's repeated criticisms of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and calls for interest rate cuts have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, impacting investor confidence in the U.S. economy [6][8] - Despite pressures, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% and job growth exceeding expectations, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [15][16] - The Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market conditions, with Powell indicating that any decisions will depend on forthcoming economic data [7][9] Group 4: U.S. Debt Concerns - The U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with public debt accounting for nearly 80%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. government debt amid rising interest rates [12][13] - The recent tax reform is projected to increase the federal deficit by an additional $2.4 trillion to $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating existing debt concerns [12][13] - The combination of high debt levels and rising interest costs could undermine the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, leading to a potential shift in investment flows towards other currencies like the euro [13][17]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government debt will eventually impact the market, squeezing out other investment opportunities [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes that at some point, the level of U.S. government debt will have significant market implications [1] - The potential crowding out effect on other investment opportunities is highlighted, indicating a shift in capital allocation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cuts in the U.S. may not effectively address the issues of government debt and stagflation, as highlighted by Minsheng Securities' chief economist Tao Chuan and his team [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which has led to increased market expectations for rate cuts this year due to disappointing recent employment data [1] - The depreciation of the dollar is causing imported inflation, which complicates the implementation of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Impact on Debt and Wealth - The high-interest environment in the past has resulted in the private sector holding an increasing amount of U.S. government debt, suggesting that lowering interest rates could negatively impact American wealth [1]

贝莱德在第三季度固定收益展望报告中表示，“我们已经关注美国政府债务问题的危险处境有一段时间了。如果这种情况继续得不到控制，我们认为债务将成为美国在金融市场中所享有的‘特殊地位’面临的最大风险。”公共债务增加可能会降低美国长期国债收益率走势与美国货币政策之间的关联性，尽管美联储降息，收益率仍将上升。美国国债供应增加，可能会面临美联储以及外国央行需求下降的局面。这表明应当将投资多元化，减少对美国公债市场的依赖，同时增加对短期美债的配置，因为短期美债在降息时可能会受益。“尽管政府提议削减开支，但赤字仍在攀升，而且现在更多的支出都用于支付利息。”“随着外国投资者退出，政府每周发行超过5000亿美元的债务，民间市场无法吸收这些债务，从而推高政府借贷成本的风险是切实存在的。” ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that there is no rush to cut interest rates, citing high tariffs as a significant source of uncertainty that requires careful observation [1][2] - Powell indicated that future trade agreements could influence the Fed's consideration of rate cuts, reflecting the impact of trade policies on economic forecasts [1][3] - Most Federal Reserve officials support a rate cut this year, but they are waiting to observe inflation trends in the coming months [3][6] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Inflation - Powell stated that the current high tariffs lack modern precedent, making it challenging for the Fed to assess their potential impact on inflation [2][4] - He noted that tariffs are expected to contribute to inflation in the coming months, with consumers likely bearing some of the costs [3][5] - The Fed is still determining how much of the tariff burden will be passed on to consumers and how it will manifest in measured inflation [5][6] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - Powell reiterated that the Fed does not consider the federal government's debt in its monetary policy decisions, although he acknowledged that fiscal policy can exacerbate inflationary pressures [8] - He expressed concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal path, highlighting that debt growth is outpacing economic growth [8] - Powell briefly addressed student loan debt, suggesting it is an issue Congress needs to consider due to its negative impact on borrowers' economic participation [9] Group 4: Federal Reserve Headquarters Renovation - Recent reports indicated that the renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters could cost approximately $2.5 billion, leading to public scrutiny [10] - Powell defended the renovation plans, stating that the building requires updates for safety and functionality, and clarified that sensationalized media reports about luxury features are inaccurate [10]

Group 1 - Nassim Taleb suggests that while the dollar remains an effective medium of exchange, gold has effectively become the world's reserve currency [1][2] - Taleb highlights that the market is driven by asset allocation rather than long-term economic factors, indicating a disconnect between market behavior and economic fundamentals [2][3] - The accumulation of gold reserves by central banks is seen as a sign of the dollar losing its status as a reserve currency, with recent geopolitical events accelerating this trend [2][3] Group 2 - Taleb criticizes the economic strategies of the Trump administration, arguing that their approach is irrational and detrimental to GDP growth [3][4] - He points out that tariffs imposed on goods not produced domestically disproportionately affect the lower-income population, as they spend a larger portion of their income on necessities [4] - The potential impact of immigration policies on the labor market is discussed, with Taleb warning that restricting labor sources could have negative long-term consequences for the economy [4]

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 那么，为什么川普要屡次施压鲍威尔，让美联储赶紧降息呢？！ 我在前文《》谈到，市场目前普遍预期美联储会按兵不动。 我在昨天晚上的直播课上解释过，川普不但施压鲍威尔降息100个基点，甚至以提名下一任美联储人选作为要挟，准备用影子美联储主席来影响未来美联 储的决策，推动降息，其目的川普写得非常清晰，即—— "可以大幅降低即将到底的长期和短期债务的利率。" 截至2025年5月26日，援引债务时钟的数据显示，美国总负债已经达到36.89万亿美元。 如上图所示，截至2024财年，美国政府债务/GDP突破130%，联邦政府债务/GDP突破120%。 2024财年利息支出总额超1万亿美元，近三年年均利息增长1900亿美元。 如上图所示，从净利息支出的角度，2024财年联邦政府净利息支出8811亿美元，占GDP比重约为3.1%。 根据美国国会预算办公室预测， 2025财年联邦政府净利息支出将达到9523亿美元，占GDP的比重将进一步上升至3.2%。但在美国削减政府非必要支出作 用下，预计联邦政府支出约7.03万亿美元，占GDP比重降为23.3%，2024财年23.4%。 | 财年 | ...