Economic Growth - The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is +4.3%, exceeding expectations of +3.3% and the previous value of +3.8%[1] - The annualized quarterly personal consumption expenditure growth rate for Q3 2025 is +3.5%, higher than the expected +2.7% and the previous +2.5%[1] - The core PCE price index for Q3 2025 shows an annualized quarterly growth rate of +2.9%, matching expectations and up from +2.6% in the previous quarter[1] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence index rose to 61.7 in July 2025, the highest since March 2025, contributing to a recovery in personal consumption[3] - The Q3 2025 personal consumption expenditure growth rate of +3.5% is the highest recorded in 2025, indicating a rebound in consumer spending[3] Investment Trends - Private investment in Q3 2025 recorded a quarterly growth rate of -0.3%, an improvement from -13.8% in the previous quarter[4] - Fixed investment growth rate for non-residential investment is +2.8%, while residential investment continues to decline at -5.1%[4] Net Exports - The "import rush" effect has weakened, with imports showing a negative growth rate of -4.7% in Q3 2025, while exports increased by +8.8%[6] - Net exports contributed 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in Q3 2025, driven by improved export demand from trade negotiations[6] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up by +0.2%, S&P 500 by +0.5%, and Nasdaq by +0.6%[2] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.18%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4 basis points to 3.48%[2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Platinum's outer - market price breaks through the previous high with strong upward momentum, while palladium follows platinum to rise [1]. - The trend strength of platinum and palladium is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - bullish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 619.95 with a 9.06% increase; gold - exchange platinum at 561.61 with a 5.26% increase; New York platinum main - continuous at 2320.10 with a 7.97% increase; London spot platinum at 2285.00 with an 8.46% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 532.55 with a 4.74% increase; RMB spot palladium at 437.00 with a 1.63% increase; New York palladium main - continuous at 1964.00 with a 5.56% increase; London spot palladium at 1858.00 with a 5.21% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Guangdong platinum, the trading volume was 155,413 (a change of 101,107 from the previous day) and the open interest was 44,432 (a change of 3,345). For NYMEX platinum, the trading volume was 42,519 (- 9,028) and the open interest was 59,873 (a change of 27,467). For Guangdong palladium, the trading volume was 182,094 (a change of 153,767) and the open interest was 22,805 (a change of 5,106). For NYMEX palladium, the trading volume was 13,058 (a change of 1,991) and the open interest was 211,674 (a change of 190,256) [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,269,872 (a change of 20,778), and palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,138,951 (a change of 9,396) [1]. - **Inventory Data**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 624,733 (no change), and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 195,570 (a change of 6,480). No data was provided for Guangdong platinum and palladium inventories [1]. - **Spread Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was - 58.34 (a change of - 23.46); Guangdong platinum 2606 to 2610 spread was - 2.40 (no change), and the cross - period arbitrage cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 was 7.62 (a change of 0.61). The spread between the gold - exchange platinum and London platinum was 44.53 (a change of - 12.10). Similar spread data for palladium was also provided [1]. - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 97.90 with a - 0.37% change; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 7.04 with a - 0.04% change; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.03 with a 0.06% change; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.95 with a - 0.08% change [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US economy expanded at a 4.3% rate in the third quarter, the fastest in two years, but the US consumer confidence index declined for five consecutive months [4]. - According to the ADP weekly employment report, private - sector employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending December 6, 2025 [4]. - Trump stated that those who disagree with his views will never become the Federal Reserve Chairman [4]. - Hassett, the next - potential Federal Reserve candidate, predicted that monthly new jobs may return to over 100,000 and that the Federal Reserve lags far behind the situation in terms of interest - rate cuts [4]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the Federal Reserve could discuss adjusting the inflation target to a range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% [4]. - The Russian Foreign Ministry refuted the rumor that the Russian embassy in Venezuela was evacuating [4]. - Two departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission aimed to reach a total installed capacity of about 15 million kilowatts for solar - thermal power generation by 2030 [4].

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations and indicating a dovish stance [4][5] - The Fed initiated a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, committing to purchase $40 billion of short-term Treasury bonds monthly starting in December, aimed at releasing liquidity [5] - Economic outlook has been adjusted positively, with the GDP growth forecast for 2026 raised by 0.5 percentage points, while the core PCE inflation forecast was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a controlled inflation environment [5] Market Reaction - As of December 10, major indices showed positive movement: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.0%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% [6] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 5 basis points to 4.13%, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points to 3.54% [6] - The US dollar index closed at 98.64, reflecting market adjustments following the Fed's announcement [6] Future Outlook - The Fed may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, with potential cuts occurring 2-3 times from June to November, depending on the new Fed chair's leadership [5] - The second quarter of 2026 may present a favorable window for Treasury bond investments, contingent on the resolution of uncertainties such as tariff judicial decisions and government shutdowns [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is supported by safe - haven demand and rebounds. The US government shutdown, potential economic slowdown, and central bank gold - buying expectations provide bottom support for gold prices, but the strengthening of the US dollar and long - term interest rates pose potential suppression. The market may continue to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to use an interval band trading strategy. The recommended trading intervals are 890 - 950 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract and 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 917.8 yuan/gram, up 5.54 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11,427 yuan/kilogram, up 151 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 137,883 lots, down 3,545 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 245,863 lots, up 1,589 lots. The top 20 net positions of the Shanghai Gold main contract are 104,020 lots, up 2,015 lots; those of the Shanghai Silver main contract are 98,371 lots, up 2,070 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 87,816 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 639,940 kilograms, down 16,230 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 913.8 yuan/gram, up 6.31 yuan; the spot price of silver is 11,323 yuan/kilogram, up 164 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 4 yuan/gram, up 0.77 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 104 yuan/kilogram, up 13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings are 1,038.63 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings are 15,150.71 tons, down 16.93 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver are 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 36.02%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 26.9%, up 0.05% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 22.92%, down 2.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.92%, down 2.1% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US federal government shutdown has entered the 36th day, which may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. If the deadlock continues until Thanksgiving week, about $14 billion in economic losses will be irreparable [2]. - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding the expected 30,000, but the overall labor demand is still slowing down, adding uncertainty to the Fed's December interest - rate decision [2]. - The US 10 - month ISM services PMI rose 2.4 points to 52.4, reaching an eight - month high, while the manufacturing PMI is still under pressure [2].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken in the short term. The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to about 80% [3]. - The US second - quarter economic growth rate was higher than expected, but business investment growth slowed. The inflation indicator PCE showed a slight rebound [1]. - The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time due to high economic uncertainty, a stable labor market, and high inflation [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised down, leading to Trump's decision to replace the BLS局长 [2]. Key Data - The US second - quarter GDP grew 3% quarter - on - quarter, better than the expected 2.4% [1]. - In June, the US PCE annual increase rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, and the core PCE index rose 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7% [1]. - In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The June figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and the May figure was revised down by 125,000 [2]. - After the data release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once fell more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 2% [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen to about 80% [3]. Policy and Events - Trump signed an executive order to keep the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10% and increased the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, while extending the current tariff rate on Mexican goods for 90 days [1]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged [2]. - Trump ordered the replacement of the BLS局长 due to poor non - farm payrolls data [2]. US Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded in July and reached a two - month high of 100.257 last Friday but weakened short - term after the non - farm data, falling to 99 for consolidation. The resistance level is at 101 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, anticipates a slowdown in the U.S. economic growth to approximately 1% this year, while the labor market remains robust [1] Economic Outlook - U.S. economic growth is expected to decelerate to around 1% in 2023 [1] - The labor market continues to show strength despite the anticipated slowdown in economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.5% as expected, indicating a cautious stance on future monetary policy without providing a clear path for rate cuts [1] - The Fed's statement highlighted three key points: first, it remains highly attentive to future inflation based on trade developments; second, the annualized GDP growth for Q2 increased by 3%, showing improvement from the contraction in Q1, although overall economic growth has shown signs of slowing in the first half of the year; third, the employment market in the U.S. is still considered robust [1] - Following the meeting, market expectations for a rate cut in October decreased to 76%, with the anticipated number of rate cuts for the year falling to less than two [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects the Fed's less optimistic view on U.S. economic growth compared to earlier assessments, suggesting that if inflation rises temporarily or economic growth continues to slow, the Fed may adopt more aggressive rate-cutting measures [1] - The expectation remains that a rate cut in Q4 is still a significant possibility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current "moderately tight" monetary policy in the U.S. is deemed appropriate, allowing the Federal Reserve to observe economic trends and assess risks for potential policy adjustments [1] Economic Forecast - The economic impact of the Trump administration's increased import tariffs is just beginning to manifest, with inflation expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the second half of the year and early next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to increase from the current 4.1% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - The inflation rate is expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% for the entire year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "big and beautiful" fiscal plan by the U.S. government is viewed skeptically by Lombard Odier, which believes it will have limited positive impact on the economy and may worsen the fiscal outlook [1] Economic Impact - Lombard Odier forecasts that the budget plan will increase the federal deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade [1] - If tax cuts are made permanent, the deficit could increase even further [1] - The ratio of public debt to GDP is expected to rise to 119% by around 2034 [1] Revenue and Spending - While tariff revenues may alleviate some fiscal pressure, the largest spending cuts will focus on healthcare and food assistance programs [1] - Most tax cuts are unlikely to significantly boost consumer spending [1] Economic Growth Projections - Lombard Odier maintains its previous economic growth forecasts for the U.S., predicting growth rates of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report is interpreted as a strong signal that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in July, leading to a rise in the dollar index after four consecutive days of decline [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate for May is reported at 2.3%, down from 6.8% three years ago, while the unemployment rate for June stands at 4.1%, up from 3.5% three years ago, indicating increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate recorded a negative value of -0.5% in Q1 2025, a significant drop from previous values of 2.4% and 3.1%, suggesting a decline in economic vitality [3] Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on inflation, as well as the need to avoid financing fiscal deficits through monetary policy [4] - The current U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with about one-quarter of fiscal revenue allocated to interest payments, prompting the White House to advocate for interest rate cuts to reduce debt servicing costs [3] Political Pressures - The White House expresses dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged, with President Trump publicly calling for further rate cuts [3] - Potential successors to Fed Chair Powell, such as current Fed Governor Waller and Treasury Secretary Basant, have shown support for quicker rate cuts, indicating internal pressure within the Federal Reserve [4]